'Noreaster Noel pounds New England; new tropical depression may hit Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. marraskuuta 2007 klo 15:59 (GMT)

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Hurricane Noel is now 'Noreaster Noel, and wind and seas are steadily rising near New England and Nova Scotia. Sustained winds of 53 mph, gusting to 61 mph, were observed at Buzzard's Bay, Massachusetts at 1pm EDT, and winds at Nantucket Island were 43 mph, gusting to 53 mph. At 3am this morning, strong winds along North Carolina's Outer Banks pushed the sea over Highway 12 near Rodanthe, cutting off the islands from the mainland. Seas were 10-12 feet along North Carolina, and much higher in the open ocean--up to 37 feet at buoy 41048 a few hundred miles west of Bermuda. Waves up to 30 feet are expected to batter the shore of western Nova Scotia, where 'Noreaster Noel is expected to barrel ashore tonight. 'Noreaster Noel has already brought up to an inch of rain to eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts (Figure 2), and heavy rains of 4 inches will be common along the coast.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 'Noreaster Noel taken at 10:45am EDT 11/03/07. Disturbance 91L is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: NASA Goddard.


Noel's trail of destruction
Noel's death toll now stands at 127, with many more missing. The Dominican Republic suffered 82 deaths, Haiti 43, the Bahamas one, and Jamaica one. Noel is the deadliest storm this hurricane season.

Links to follow for 'Noreaster Noel
New England Marine weather and buoy reports
Long range radar out of Boston, MA
Google Maps interface, zoomed in on Nantucket, MA

Figure 2. Total rainfall from 'Noreaster Noel.


New tropical depression could form near Nicaragua
A region of disturbed weather that was the southern portion of Hurricane Noel's rainy regime has acquired a spin of its own, and appears to be organizing into a tropical depression. This disturbance has been labeled "91L" by NHC today. Wind shear is about 10 knots over 91L, and is expected to be 10-20 knots through Monday. This should allow the system enough time to organize into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before it makes landfall over Nicaragua on Monday. Heavy rains will begin to affect northeastern Nicaragua tonight and spread into northeast Honduras on Sunday. Total rain amounts of 4-8 inches are likely by Tuesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 91L Sunday afternoon.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Raise the Roof (DRWeather)
LDD-DR employees and neighbors help the Valerio Family repair their home.
Raise the Roof
Waves from Noel (jimbrickett)
Taken at 1500 (3 PM) at Lynnhaven Inlet on the Chesapeake Bay - waves from Hurricane Noel
Waves from Noel

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609. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:59 (GMT)
new blog up
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
608. lindenii
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:53 (GMT)
So...

Now that Noel is gone...

What are the YTD ACE numbers?

607. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Atlantic coast marine weather from Enviro/Canada Link
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
606. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:14 (GMT)
Environment Canada Weather Forecast
Marine Forecast issued for Gulf-Magdalen.
Issued: 10.00 AM AST Sunday 04 November 2007. Synopsis:
At forecast time post-tropical storm Noel was located north of western Prince Edward Island. It is forecast to pass into the Labrador Sea overnight. The area of gale force winds extends well out from the low covering almost the entire marine district.
Nearer the centre winds become gale to storm force east to southeasterlies ahead of it and shift rapidly to storm force westerlies in its wake. Winds will gradually diminish to strong to gale force westerlies as it continues away this afternoon.
Generally light to moderate winds are expected on Monday as this storm moves well off to the northeast.
Tropical storm information...At 9.00 AM AST post-tropical storm Noel Was located near latitude 47.5 north and longitude 64.3 west...About 55 nautical miles or 100 kilometres east northeast of Chatham.
Noel is moving north northeast at 35 knots...65 km/h.
Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 65 knots...120 km/h and central pressure at 968 MB.
Marine interests are advised that storm warnings are continued for Eastern shore..Sable..Fourchu..Cabot strait.. Northumberland strait..
Gulf Magdalen..And Anticosti. Gale warnings are continued for all Remaining waters except Browns Bank..Georges Bank..And west Scotian Slope.
Mariners are further advised that very rough and pounding surf will persist along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today. As well rough and pounding surf will occur today and tonight in central and northern coastal section of the Gulf of St Lawrence.
Please monitor future forecasts for any updates or changes that may be required for this dangerous storm.
Forecast:
Hurricane force wind warning downgraded to storm warning.
Southeast gales 35 to 45 knots with gusts to 60 near the coast From Margaree Harbour to Bay St Lawrence. Gales increasing to southwest gales 45 to 55 late this morning with gusts to 65 near The coast. Gales diminishing to southwest gales 35 this evening And to southwest winds 20 overnight and to light near dawn Monday.
Showers thundershowers and fog patches ending this afternoon.
Visibility poor in showers and fog. Little temperature change.
Outlook for Tuesday...Light winds increasing to strong to Gale force southeasterlies.
Copyright © 2007 Environment Canada
All Rights Reserved
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
605. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:08 (GMT)
coldify

another wublog technical term for Baha/Tampa's companion dictionary to Flood's Crow Cookbook.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
604. sydneyaust1
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 14:00 (GMT)
160 km/h wind gusts forecast or Cape Breton -
Link
603. sydneyaust1
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
591. ShenValleyFlyFish 12:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2007 Hide this comment.
Hey Sidney you still on? Just daylight here. Been figuring out Environment Canada site somewhat. I am one of those rare birds (in this nation) who carries dual citizenship Dad Canadian, Mom US, me born in States. Hows things in the other side of the empire?


Still here lurking ShenValley - I also have dual citizenship - Australia / UK - born in England live in Australia - it's 1AM here - I get no sleep following this blog I tell you (yawn) LOL
602. hurricane10
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
UPDATE LINK
601. mit5000
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:43 (GMT)
hmph!

noel has killed the season off!


its coldyfied the waters and ruined any east coast/carribean development possiblietyes
600. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:35 (GMT)
597. Thundercloud01221991 8:21 AM EST on November 04, 2007
yea we are supposed to get some this week and may even get a good dumping


How do you do weather maps? Somehow the Weather Gods don't seem to pay much attention to the 49th parallel. Dad used to be alternately bemused and frustrated with US weather reporting. He would have loved the web. True international citizen. Exchanged letters with friends on every continent.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
599. kmanislander
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Actually if you look at the vis loop of 91L you can see the low spinning near 12N and 81W well to the SE of the convection that has gone ashore in Nicaragua.

The position given for the low both in the 7:05 discussion and on the WU home page are way off.

The low appears to be stationary at this time with very little convection over it but it is clearly visible.

Link
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
598. kmanislander
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:29 (GMT)
good morning

Quikscat has the SW Caribbean low at 12N/81.3W approx and not near 14/83 although from the IR images it does look to be onshore



Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
597. Thundercloud01221991
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:21 (GMT)
yea we are supposed to get some this week and may even get a good dumping
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
596. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Thundercloud you obviously do cold better than I. Have considered moving to CA but all my relatives live in the Kitchener/Waterloo area and growing up in the mountains of VA I like something on the horizon to rest my eyes against. Not too excited about that Lake Effect either. Bet you get a bunch of that.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
595. mit5000
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:14 (GMT)
575. SouljaBoy 5:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the stroms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.

You've got that right, there was more than enough loss of life and property to go around this season. The Mainland USA was spared to some degree but the tragedies were still suffered elsewhere


td5?

dont you mean td10?
594. Thundercloud01221991
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:08 (GMT)
well first I was in IL then MO and now NY
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
593. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 13:04 (GMT)
592. Thundercloud01221991 7:59 AM EST on November 04, 2007
Hey I have duel Citizenship also my dad was CA and mom US


So in what part of the world did you wind up?
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
592. Thundercloud01221991
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Hey I have duel Citizenship also my dad was CA and mom US
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
591. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Hey Sidney you still on? Just daylight here. Been figuring out Environment Canada site somewhat. I am one of those rare birds (in this nation) who carries dual citizenship Dad Canadian, Mom US, me born in States. Hows things in the other side of the empire?
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
590. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 12:40 (GMT)
From Environment Canada (weather service)Link

St. John's
[ Newfoundland and Labrador ]
Currently

Observed at: St. John's Int'l Airport 8:30 AM NST Sunday 4 November 2007

Condition:
Cloudy
Temperature:
6.6°C
Pressure / Tendency:
101.9 kPa / falling
Visibility:
19 km
Humidity:
88%
Dew Point:
4.8°C
Wind Speed:
SSE 39 km/h gust 65 km/h

Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
589. sydneyaust1
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 11:44 (GMT)
Hello Shenvalley - still here watching NOEL and KABAYAN - how are you this evening
588. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 10:51 (GMT)
Good morning anyone else up? Reset clocks but not brain.
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
587. wxhatt
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 08:45 (GMT)
Just checking my photo for the blog.

yep, still a blank icon...

still says Approval Pending, and it's been a day gone by. Just how long does this process take?
Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
586. BahaHurican
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 07:55 (GMT)
585. wxhatt 2:30 AM EST on November 04, 2007
test


Should I have studied instead of going out??

LOL

Hey, I'm just checking in for 2 minutes to see what's going on w/ 91L and exNoel.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20708
585. wxhatt
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 07:30 (GMT)
test
Member Since: 5.10.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 838
584. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 07:06 (GMT)
apan Meteorological Agency

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (T0721)
16.8ºN 123.7ºE - 55 knots 985 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
==============================
At 15:00 pm JST, Severe Tropical Storm Peipah (T0721) strengthened further to 10 min sustained winds of 55 knots and gusts up to 80 knots. The cyclone is moving west-southwest at 13 knots.

expected sustained winds 0600z 05Nov is 45 knots.

Storm Warning Area
==================
40 NM from the center of the cyclone

Gale Warning Area
=================
120 NM from the center of the cyclone

PAGASA

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
=============================
Tropical Storm "KABAYAN" has gained more strength as it moves closer to Isabela-Aurora area.


Maximum sustained winds is 50 knots

Storm Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h)

1.Luzon Region
--------------
a.Cagayan
b.Isabela
c.Quirino
d.Aurora


Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h)

1.Luzon Region
---------------
a.Benguet
b.Kalinga
c.Apayao
d.Ifugao
e.Mt. Province
f.Ilocos Norte
g.Ilocos Sur
h.Abra
i.La Union
j.Pangasinan
k.Nueva Vizcaya
l.Nueva Ecija
m.Quezon
n.Polillo Island
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43663
583. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:57 (GMT)
Thanks MLC. Keep the lights on and the door open for the rest of us. I gotta go watch reruns on my eyelids.lol G'night
582. moonlightcowboy
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:52 (GMT)
Noel surely looks fierce off the New England coast!

Have a good sleep, fbig, and all!
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
581. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:47 (GMT)
Well, at the risk of being redundant........

em>554. flaboyinga 4:06 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all. Been a pleasure one more time. Later.
580. moonlightcowboy
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:47 (GMT)
573. Tazmanian 5:08 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
. flaboyinga all but 2 fires have been put out no rain this big H been overe me for weeeks now need to move out of the way or i will do it for the big H i want a nic cold rain and snow storm


big H you have in tell next week to move out of ca or i will move you out of the way on my own


...I hear ya, TAZ, may a good verbal and spinning assault will take care of biz! Hope it gets out of there soon! Take care, man!
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
579. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:44 (GMT)
576. Orcasystems 5:34 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
I have pictures in my head of some poor SOB trying to outrun this thing into the Bay of Fundy, not pretty


Education can sometimes be quite expensive, and some pay a terrible price to learn their lessons.
578. 2ifbyC
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:43 (GMT)
Fox News is reporting gusts to 90 mph in the NE. Anybody have info?
Member Since: 18.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
577. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:39 (GMT)
575. SouljaBoy 5:30 AM GMT on November 04, 2007

Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the stroms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.


You've got that right, there was more than enough loss of life and property to go around this season. The Mainland USA was spared to some degree but the tragedies were still suffered elsewhere.
576. Orcasystems
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:34 (GMT)
I have pictures in my head of some poor SOB trying to outrun this thing into the Bay of Fundy, not pretty
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
575. SouljaBoy
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:30 (GMT)
570. CStaWeatherMan 4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007 Hide this comment.
Noel would have been the storm of the season if our wind sheer was not there to help us. However, the east coast was awakened by the pull of the storm showing us what could have happened if Noel had it's way with us.
I personally have predicted to all my friends that we would not get a storm touching the US of any magnitude this year. I based this on history. The earth goes through cycles and I also personally believe that there is no such thing as global warming. Not any more than the cycles the earth going through warming and cooling.


Although it wasn't a repeat of 2005, the U.S. got hit by Humberto, Gabriel, Erin, Barry, and Tropical Depression 5. Also, we had two landfalling cat 5s and Hurr. Noel, which killed many people. Also, an Invest killed more in the yucatan peninsula than all the storms combined. You can't say that it was an inactive and quiet season just because a storm didn't hit your area.
574. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:18 (GMT)
You got it started when you said you had seen a greenie go over a flight deck of a CV.. I said to myself, been there done that.


The last one I was in we lost all the life lines and stanchions from the bow to midships, the radio antennas on the focsl, the forward pump room, sonar, and stood lookout watches on the 06 level behind the 6" gun director. We were on 610ft long CLG-4 USS Little Rock.
We got relieved late from the Med and the "Old Man" had to take the south part of the middle of a Nov extratropical (ex hurricane) to get us home in time for Christmas. We had guys tying themselves into their racks to sleep. Rock and Roll was not invented by Elvis.LOL
573. Tazmanian
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:08 (GMT)
. flaboyinga all but 2 fires have been put out no rain this big H been overe me for weeeks now need to move out of the way or i will do it for the big H i want a nic cold rain and snow storm


big H you have in tell next week to move out of ca or i will move you out of the way on my own
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
572. Orcasystems
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:05 (GMT)
You got it started when you said you had seen a greenie go over a flight deck of a CV.. I said to myself, been there done that.

Worst storm I have ever been in, and the most shipborne damage. Mouth of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.. less then 100 miles from Victoria. Shaped like a funnel to the sea and wind. 100 knot winds and 80 foot waves... and no place to go. We took them green up to the flag deck.. from the stern.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
571. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 05:03 (GMT)
569. Tazmanian 4:59 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
dont for get to set your clocks back 1hr tonight


Thanks Taz. How are the fire conditions out on CA. Also how did you make out with that big storm you got hit by?
570. CStaWeatherMan
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:59 (GMT)
Noel would have been the storm of the season if our wind sheer was not there to help us. However, the east coast was awakened by the pull of the storm showing us what could have happened if Noel had it's way with us.
I personally have predicted to all my friends that we would not get a storm touching the US of any magnitude this year. I based this on history. The earth goes through cycles and I also personally believe that there is no such thing as global warming. Not any more than the cycles the earth going through warming and cooling.
Member Since: 28.07.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
569. Tazmanian
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:59 (GMT)
dont for get to set your clocks back 1hr tonight


good night
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
568. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:56 (GMT)

All of my time other then courses in Halifax was spent at sea on the west coast. Prior to that, I was a commercial Fisherman based out of the Queen Charlotte Islands.

Orca, you must have worn out a lot of sets of foul weather gear. wow
567. Orcasystems
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:55 (GMT)
I joined in 76 and retired in 98
If its in the Pacific.. I have been there.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
566. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:53 (GMT)
Orca, I looked back over the post and realized she was probable retired 20yrs ago.lol My cruiser and Mickmack hit Nassau at the same time. Seemed to be a great bunch. It was early 60's. It might nave been about the time of the Cuban Missile Blockade. y time was Atlantic and Carib all the way over to the Black Sea. Castro didn't want us down there and the Russians didn't want in the Black Sea.LOL
565. Orcasystems
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:45 (GMT)
HMCS Mickmack, no.. not that old.

All of my time other then courses in Halifax was spent at sea on the west coast. Prior to that, I was a commercial Fisherman based out of the Queen Charlotte Islands.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
564. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:43 (GMT)
563. Orcasystems 4:40 AM GMT on November 04, 2007
FlaBoy, 22 years Canadian Navy here... Nothing like a Typhoon in the SCS to get your attention.


Hey Orca, good to see ya. Did you ever operate with HRMCS Mickmack? (I might have the spelling wrong)
563. Orcasystems
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:40 (GMT)
FlaBoy, 22 years Canadian Navy here... Nothing like a Typhoon in the SCS to get your attention.
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
562. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:33 (GMT)
I was surprised to see that front had pushed all th way down to Hispanola on the last graphic. I hope they don't get any more rainfall for a while. They need time to dig out and recover.
561. flaboyinga
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:27 (GMT)
Thanks Skye. I use to be in the weather gang on a guided missile cruiser and on the Independence for a little while in late '63 to early '65 and I've forgotten most of the little bit I knew, but I still remember the wind plot flags. We did all of that by hand from teletype print outs. Then a trained met would analyze and draw the fronts, etc in with colored pens. The modern graphics are almost amazing to me. I'm glad they are there, too.
560. ShenValleyFlyFish
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:25 (GMT)
test
Member Since: 9.09.2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
559. Skyepony (Mod)
4. marraskuuta 2007 klo 04:21 (GMT)
(that map) Parade of waves has yet to end. 91L a "possible tropical cyclone". ECFL waves are down to 4-5'.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36083

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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