Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

agree with A4...the eye seems to have reappeared right on 15N and has been moving W along the 15N line the last couple of frames.

the eye is actually slightly south of 15

Posted By: Relix at 4:01 PM CDT on August 17, 2007.
It is going WNW. Baah... Dean is such an awesome system. Still... i see it still going WNW, any of the most experienced members here might give me some insight? I see it at 15.4 right now.


HUH the storm is at 15N and not no 15.4 unless you are looking at a different storm or archives.This storm is at 15N

Metallica.......... I agree with you......I made some comments earlier today and there was some replies with opinions just like mine.





Lefty420......It all depends on timing and location.....If its in Florida then its almost a definite.....In Texas probably not... Got some things going on at the homefront financially that i can be gone to long.......I will definitely give it my best......

The Kiwi Box is similar to the Hebert box...

100% of hurricanes that hit TX go through the GOM.

This does not mean that what goes through the GOM hits TX!

Vis of Dean at 2015Z. The eye is clearing itself out.

Florida will NOT get hit. Just my opinion. But yes, it doesn't matter what anyone says it will go where the heck it wants to. No one will have a great idea until later this weekend so I think everyone should just relax and keep their eyes on it, lol.

finally someone sees my comment lol thanks for agreeing weatherboy

I guess today is the night where u want to stay up. Tonight is when he will explode.....and when he enters the GOM.


Cannot hit FL eh? Prob not east coast..... maybe panhandle...

40 inches of rain (1,000 millimeters) predicted for parts of Taiwan from Sepat.

Link

In the Philippines, rains exacerbated by Typhoon Sepat continued to soak Manila and surrounding provinces on Friday after the cyclone brought the capital to a near standstill two days earlier, with major roads in the vicinity under water up to 5 feet (1.5 metres) deep in places.

Posted By: OUFan919 at 8:57 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

What the heck is wrong with the NHC?? I see it at 15.3N right now, they have it at 15N. They have it at 15.5N in 12 hours. No way. It will be close to 16.0N in 12 hours at this pace.

I appreciate that sometimes it is hard to tell where the centre is and sometimes people have different opinions on this.

However, if we have really reached the point where either;

a) we believe the NHC does not know how to tell where the centre of storm is, or
b) we believe the NHC is not telling the truth about where the centre of a storm is,

then we might as well scrap the entire NHC and start watching ants and squirrels to tell the weather.

weatherboyfsu

i feel ya. we will see. i am up for as far south as florida and the panhandle. i am def go if you want a partner. i ahve money saved just to chase this year.


stormjunkie

same to you. if you wnat to huit the gulf coast i am up for it. just don't wnat to go alone. need some oen to call the wife when i get blown away

Dean is taking a peak at us
Link

Posted By: Michael at 8:04 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.
The ground is soaked plenty of moisture all over the state, high pressure really cant take hold because wet soil rises and creates clouds/rain, so the weakness is here


this doesn't make sense to me.. what about the ocean? That is wet and high pressure areas exist there! Does moisture realy decrease high pressure formation?

I remember in 2005 the GFDL handled Katrina better than any other model and called for its WSW movement over S FLA while the other models had it going west or WNW over FLA..and the initial NHC landfalls were in the FLA panhandle..and we see how that turned out...and Dean is still far out..things can change

What's up lefty, good to see ya.

Don't think I'll make this one lefty, but if I should I will be there 4-5 days. Going to stay and volunteer for at least three days afterwards.

Back to working this issue, see y'all in a little while!

In a previous post I tried to express concern regarding the formation of the ULL. To my untrained eye, it was poorly defined and late in developing.

Surprise, surprise, there it is in about the exact spot predicted per models. I guess I relied too much on WV imagery (pretty pictures). Should have focused on 500 or 700 mb levels to "see" this ULL. Not much good consistent upper air data once you leave the coast behind in my defense.

A track forecast would be much simpler with out it. Dean would just bump along under the ridge untill landfall on the Yucatan, then a short trip to the Mexican coast and we're onto other things.

It appears the ULL is moving slightly slower then Dean and would catch up (at the same longitude) around 120 hrs from this post time. Steering influence would be felt by Dean at 48-60 hrs (wild-a$$ guess again).

Maybe this is what is behind the GFDL's outlier track. A slow but increasing influence on Dean to turn to the right resulting in landfall on the North-Central Gulf Coast.

Butt who nose

"this doesn't make sense to me.. what about the ocean? That is wet and high pressure areas exist there! Does moisture realy decrease high pressure formation?"

things are different over land vs over sea. over land, dry soil = hot weather = strong upper level ridges. part of the reason the southeast is baking so bad is b/c of the drought there. that's also where there is a strong ridge. but things are different over the ocean.

African Wave Update

Satellite imagery, 315K potential vorticity charts and 700 mb wind analysis through 1800 UTC indicate that a tropical wave is near 31-32W south of 22N. The last visible loops of the day of the Eastern Atlantic clearly depicts low-mid level cyclonic turning just to the west of the Cape Verde. This wave continues to be envelop in very dry African dust and thus convective active activity remains absent. Another interesting feature is that QuikSCAT shows a second possible circulation within the ITCZ band in the image below.

by 456

Posted By: welshcayman at 9:06 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

then we might as well scrap the entire NHC and start watching ants and squirrels to tell the weather.

Hey there now watch what you say about the squirrels there! I have been known to check on my son's hampster to verify the approach of a storm!!!

Tonight
Cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms until early morning...then showers and scattered thunderstorms late in the night. Windy. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Lows 78 lower elevations ranging to 66 higher elevations. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Saturday
Cloudy. Showers and scattered thunderstorms until late afternoon...then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Highs 86 lower elevations ranging to 78 higher elevations. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
» ZIP Code Detail
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms early in the evening...then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall early in the evening. Lows 79 lower elevations ranging to 67 higher elevations. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Sunday
Variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the morning...then variably cloudy with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 88 lower elevations ranging to 81 higher elevations. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

this is for puerto rico at 5:00pm, fais better for us :) (hu2007-pr)

Most models are usually too far to the west on tracks. Canes end up going east most of the time.


StormKat-- where R U ?? Talk to us...

i think cat 4 by next advisory possibly cat 5 by tomorrow this thing looks like it could explode at anytime

Tell me...when is Dean going to go NW?

NHC forecaster Avila says the Bahamas ULL will not in itself steer but may weaken and allow a ridge to form, which (I guess) dictate the western motion after Jamaica. I think they are unsure of what is going to happen really....

Going to be interesting to see the 18z runs...Only three more hours for them...

Hmm, looks like Dean is right now on the 15th parallel and exactly where NHC predicted it to be. Guys, you gotta learn not to read too much into these little wobbles.

doesnt the 18z gfs start to come out now?

Powerful Dean continues through the Caribbean

iceman
Of course the flip side of that coin is the ULL could exert a S-SSW push as they draw nearer. Then we're inline with the consensus track

The NHC is fairly good when the track comes to 48 hours. Once we get passed that, the error starts to become larger.

Don't focus on the wobbles so hard. You cant make the storm go WNW or NW.

classic Hurricane look, Dean is looking awesome look at his banding

You can check the status of the model runs here. Looks like the 18z GFS is running now.

Link

I wish it would start going WNW, I don't want it to hit the Yucatan.

Those cloud tops sure are cooling off, and the eye is trying to clear out. Are there any bouys in the vacinity of Dean? I'd be interested to see what the pressure is doing.

Look at Africa making waves