Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Does anyone have a link to the recon flight data in real-time besides the report that comes out? I used one last year at weathermatrix.net/tropical/recon.shtml, which show the data from the plane every minute or so but it does not seem to be working this year. Thanks for your help.

I agree with you welshcayman

There are two reasons the Florida mets are saying we need to keep an eye on this.

The legit reason: If things change to such a degree that we are in for some trouble there won't be a lot of time for preparations.

The real reason: They need to justify their existence since for the past 3 months they have gotten away with "highs near 90...chance of rain 50%."

Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 8:30 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Actually, since Dr. Master's talked about the melting polar ice in his blog, it is appropriate to talk about it in his blog.

Everytime the earth burps, the world is coming to an end due to the impact of man. I think it is pretty arogant to think WE make that kind of impact. And oh my god, we have been studying the impact of man soooo long that it is a proven fact. As Al Gore and the hollywood bandwagon makes millions on the crap he spews. sickening

looks like anyone on a cruise to Labadee, Haiti should be o.k.

pure speculation based on one model track, but assume the last gfdl comes to pass with landfall Tues evening in between what looks like Morgan City and Houma. Surfact winds look to be 130k in the NE quadrant, so Houma probably bears the brunt according to that model grid. Looks like 50-70k E winds across Lake Borgne into Lake P...What would that mean for NO and Laplace?

I hope none of this comes to pass and I'll be the next model run will have shifted.

Dropsonde wrote: I would say it's 99.5% likely that Florida is in the clear from a direct hit. I'm more worried at this point about Dean passing west of NOLA or making a direct hit on Houston.

100% agree.

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that most folks here are mature enough to ponder the economic aftermath. OF COURSE I'm concerned about the human cost, but there are realities of the aftermath, too.

I'd say a direct hit on Houston is the worst case scenario right now overall.... I don't think people realize just how important that port is to the economy.

The oil&gas infrastructure (refineries especially) there is so fragile, that a direct hit from a cat5 would put gasoline prices up to $5 or higher... not to mention natural gas prices if enough gulf platforms are wiped out.


MAN I hate hurricane season.......

I think all this talk of a "strong hurricane creates its own environment" is highly overrated. If a hurricane encounters a strong ridge or trough associated with a atmospheric planetary wave (Rossby wave) in the jetstream, the hurricane will be redirected or destroyed no matter how strong it is. "Creating its own environment" was the excuse for the failed recurvature forecasts for 1988 Hurricane Gilbert, but the fact is that that storm slid underneath any strong mid-latitude systems. Look at how easily Katrina and Floyd were weakened and brushed aside by troughs coming down from the mid-latitudes.

the only people safe from this thing are people living east of 60 degrees long. call ing anyone west of that 70% safe or more is out of there mind

Clobber-Time in TAIWAN. Your electronics gadgets just went up in price.

Typhoon SEPAT, Category 3/4 borderline, 132 mph winds, 161 mph gusts.

WATER VAPOR, IR. Look at the Greenhouse Gases!!!



JSL colorized version optimized to highlight rainfall intensity. Everything red is drowned. Philippines has had four days of flooding from this weather system and it was never directly hit.


http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/20070817.1856.SEPAT_jsl.jpg

Here are my odds for an eventual landfall (for what it's worth): Mainland Mexico: 25%, Texas 45%, Louisiana 25%, Florida (panhandle and east) 5%. Only time will tell.

Pretty much so Welsh I think the test will be around Jamaica thats where the big divergence is.....but who knows, maybe Dean will tip his hand in advance?

Florida is unlikely TV weathermen like ratings and they will exaggerate to get viewers-- its called a "tease."

you can really see how quickly Dean's growing when you watch the satellite loops in rock mode...and yeah, the arctic sst anomalies are very scary...

Why are people freaking out about this? I understand and agree that preparation well ahead of time is always advisable when thinking about hurricanes, and I also know full well that hurricanes, like weather in general, are nonlinear dynamical systems and are thus inherently unpredictable. (I grew up in S. Florida and had Andrew destroy my house).

Nevertheless, the best evidence we have right now -- which admittedtly is still quite imprecise beyond a 48-hr window and somewhat imprecise within that window -- suggests that landfall near the Houston/Galveston area is certainly not the likeliest possibility. The consistency and convergence of the models on the southward solutions buttresses this claim.

Just to be clear, none of this is to argue that preparation is inadvisable. But I am astonished to hear so many people alredy making disaster plans for a full-on Houston/Galveston hurricane.

(I live in Houston and am a full-time student in Galveston).

Florida meteorologists are saying to keep a close eye on the storm... and the best way to do that is to watch me live at 5 cause if my ratings go way up they will give me a raise.

Posted By: nola70119 at 8:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Pretty much so Welsh I think the test will be around Jamaica thats where the big divergence is.....but who knows, maybe Dean will tip his hand in advance?

Florida is unlikely TV weathermen like ratings and they will exaggerate to get viewers-- its called a "tease."

guess Max Mayfield and Brian Norcross like to tease

Posted By: DestinJeff at 8:36 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.
if dean gets to 16 before midnight, then something is fishy... looks to be 15.5 maybe 15.4 right now.


Actually, its around 15.2-15.3N. 15.6 would be too high right now. I still say that we might see a shift to the north in the 8PM advisory (not 5). The surroundings are changing, and some forecasted things don't seem to be going the way the NHC and models wanted. I am still waiting, I am confident its not coming to PR but I don't want winds over 40MPH or flooding rains.

Posted By: coffeecrusader at 8:37 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Here are my odds for an eventual landfall (for what it's worth): Mainland Mexico: 25%, Texas 45%, Louisiana 25%, Florida (panhandle and east) 5%. Only time will tell.


For what its worth i think the ULL will greatly influence Dean and I go along with GFDL-LA 25%, MS, 25%, FL panhandle (Pensacola) 40%..parts east of there 10%

does anyone see on sat-img the more nw turn

110 knots still.

Posted By: diabeticstorm at 8:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.
Florida is completely out of the woods now. Let's focus on the states in the Gulf.


Is it?

the eye is aso visible in then RGBSat

still at 125

yep winds are still 110kts, but it was expected, because if winds were to increase to the next step up (115kts) then it would end up being a cat 4 already. maybe tonight

No matter where Dean hits if it hits on the Gulf it will effect FL to Maine to Idaho to the small town in Indiana. The aftermath of a Cat 3-5 would be horrific, gas prices just skim the surface lets not get beyond that yet please thank you...hope it weakens.

Florida is completely out of the woods now. Let's focus on the states in the Gulf.

Last time I checked the map, Florida was a state in the gulf.

WTNT24 KNHC 172038
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

i would say its at 15.0 15.1

Destin, you are right, by Florida I meant South FL.....what I was trying to say is that right now there is no reason for anyone to think that the storm is headed to Jax or Tampa Bay. There are NO models that give any indication of that...

Why are people freaking out about this? I understand and agree that preparation well ahead of time is always advisable when thinking about hurricanes, and I also know full well that hurricanes, like weather in general, are nonlinear dynamical systems and are thus inherently unpredictable. (I grew up in S. Florida and had Andrew destroy my house).


I think that after 2005, folks started to realize that these storms can have effects on the entire nation. Living in Missouri, I am dreading the spike in gas prices, yet hioing to catch some major rain off of Dean. That said I would not be upset at all if it fizzled, but it is clear that such an event will not happen.

Posted By: PalmHarbor at 8:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Posted By: diabeticstorm at 8:20 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.
Florida is completely out of the woods now. Let's focus on the states in the Gulf.


The entire west coast and panhandle of FL IS in the gulf..if the ULL picks it up..my money is on the FL panhandle or Mobile, AL

rick, often the local weather people see things that the NHC doesnt. when charlie was making landfall, the NHC was predicting a tampa landfall up until 45 min before actual landfall in pt charlotte. our local weather guys caught that almost 4 hrs ahead of the NHC.

if they see something in that ULL that might effect deans path, then im watching it too.

by when should the track be clearer? cause so far nobody is sure

I had to leave for a while...so I don't if my question was ever answered... what has to happen for the storm to turn more north towards LA/MS. Has the ULL moved at all?

No one is out of the woods until this storm dissipates, even than were sometimes not out of the woods:

data from the Air Force hurricane hunter plane earlier today
indicated that Dean reached 110 knots. Next plane is expected to
reach Dean around 00 UTC tonight. Satellite images continue to show
an eye feature...numerous cyclonically curved convective bands
which are still affecting a large portion of the Lesser Antilles.
The outflow is well established in all quadrants. Although the
possibility of some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacement cycles could occur at any time...the shear is forecast
to remain low and the ocean temperature increases westward. This
would call for an overall upward intensity trend. This is
supported by the SHIPS....GFDL and hwrf intensity guidance.

Dean is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 18 knots. The
steering pattern continues to be controlled by the high pressure
system to the north of the hurricane and the mid to upper-level low
over the southwestern Atlantic and Florida. This low is forecast
to weaken and move westward and be replaced by a ridge. This
pattern would maintain Dean over the Caribbean on a general
westward track across northern Yucatan and the western Gulf of
Mexico. The GFDL shows a more northwesterly track across extreme
western Cuba and the central Gulf of Mexico. While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

The bottom line is that Dean is expected to be a dangerous hurricane
through the next several days...and all interests in the Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
Dean.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 15.0n 64.5w 110 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 15.5n 67.4w 115 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 16.4n 70.8w 120 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 17.3n 74.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 18.0n 77.0w 130 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 20.0n 84.0w 130 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 22.0n 90.0w 100 kt...inland
120hr VT 22/1800z 24.5n 96.0w 105 kt

$$
forecaster Avila

Does anybody know the exact time (AST of course) the Hurricane Hunters will depart and/or reach the storm tonight?

I cannot believe they did not update the track!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted By: JFLORIDA at 8:42 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

8am 14.4N 61.7W
11am 14.6N 62.6W
2pm 14.8N 63.6W

Then 15N 64.W? welsh?

Latest report from the NHC states the position as;

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST

Therefore the movement in the past 3 hours is almost identical to the movement all day. Again, the current movement of the system is almost exactly what the NHC said it would be.

5 day Track on NHC website is still from 1 pm...

stsimons, Agreed. I just didn't know if there was a website that showed this information. The storm that is on this site is an old storm. It was working last year. Any help??

I think it's interesting to note that Dean will graze (may already be in) Hebert box #1 - as a cat3, of course. Will be interesting to see where it goes...