Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

What would the ULL need to do to make Dean track on a more northwesterly course?

I just thought of something no-one's mentioned yet... It looks like Gantanamo Bay is going to at minimum feel some effects of Dean. Gitmo is on the southern coast of Cuba just barely outside the view of the San Juan radar linked by SavannahStorm at 7:49 on this thread.

link

And that report on the polar ice is very scary to me.

The 5ºC+ anomalies in the Arctic are also scary:

If you are expecting hurricanes in the Arctic, you are in the correct blog, otherwise...

diabetic, it is not 100% certain that fla is safe. still too early to tell

If it crossed PR it would be a big desaster here i hope it keeps south and doesnt exceed the 16N mark

Here is a java loop showing the movement of the ULL off the coast of Florida. It also seems that Dean is beginning another blowup, with heavy convection forming over the eye and CDO. The core of the hurricane is "rounder." Dean won't be upgraded further at 5 p.m. (the next step up from 110 kts is 115 aka Cat 4), but 11 p.m. is not out of the question.

"diabetic, it is not 100% certain that fla is safe. still too early to tell"

yes, only 99% certain.

Posted By: Michael at 8:14 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

I forgot all about that, he said a huge anticyclone over Dean will over power anything and will find the weakness whereever it may be.....NW gulf? dont know

I'm not diagreeing with you at all just giving friendly observation but take a look at the link posted by Randyman and check the last frame very interesting

I pray for the people in Haiti, I hat to say this but I think they may be in for a direct hit. I know I'm going out on a limb early here but I think Dean is going to hit the Southern Coast of Haiti. It may be a lot stronger storm by the time it reaches Haiti too. Haiti as well as the Dominican as well as Southern Cuba and Eastern Jamaica should be making mass preparations right now.

its impossible for it to impact PR directly. it would need to sharply go to the NW, not happening.
the worst case scenario would maybe 16N and bring more rain then expected and some more wind.

Wow, this is getting scary. News already told people to take it easy since well... just some rains and wind. But I am watching the radar, loops, etc every single minute, and in fact, its moving WNW with a slight NW wobble. Or maybe its convection fooling with my eyes. I'll admit I didn't take a single preparation to get ready for Dean.

VAPOR - eye shows up here nicely

I would keep a close eye on the water vapor loops over the next several days in terms of this storm............

Nothing is certain till it is over and done with.

the weather man said that there was some indications that the track was going to shift more to the north and does any one think we will see any thing here in tampa.

Well here on our Ship (150 miles south of Louisiana), we will not be taking any chances. Preparations are now being taken. We should be off of our present location by late Sunday. Many of us who are "Non-Essential" will be evacuated off of this ship. Which is fine with me since I've spent the last several Major Hurricanes out here. For Once I will truly be Dodging this storm...Whew!!!

Thanks to you too Nola....Can anyone really predict where Dean may or may not go? There are so many variables that will factor into his course and from what I have read and seen, you cannot discount ANY possible landfall in the GOM or even possibly the East Coast of FL (highly unlikely - but not to be discounted)

i disagree with you floridafisherman, none of the models indicate that Dean will hit florida, none of them since a few days ago. if there was a hint of dean hitting florida, it would be in the forecast cone and at least one of the models would show it. but i dont see any of them doing that. why do some people still think that florida Is NOT safe yet?? and if florida is not 100% safe, then why don't forecasters on the news say so, etc.

Floridas not out of the woods till this thing passes 85 degrees long.

Wouldn't the forward speed drop if a more northern track appears.

so its moving wnw or nw or w?

Posted By: Crisis57 at 8:23 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Posted By: Michael at 8:14 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

I forgot all about that, he said a huge anticyclone over Dean will over power anything and will find the weakness whereever it may be.....NW gulf? dont know

I'm not diagreeing with you at all just giving friendly observation but take a look at the link posted by Randyman and check the last frame very interesting

Here's the link for anyone who missed it...



Link

i didnt take any preparations for DEAN either here in PUERTO RICO and i dont think it will matter. on the Doppler radar out of PR you can see that it did wobble to the WNW a bit but it seems that its going to the West again. you can clearly see the eye out of the long range Puerto Rido radar.

I would say it's 99.5% likely that Florida is in the clear from a direct hit. I'm more worried at this point about Dean passing west of NOLA or making a direct hit on Houston.

By Northerly we mean a slight adjustment that would favor the GFDL model to Louisiana and not till nexr week, and its not clear this is happening, though the current track might be slightly more N than forecast. All the models are moving Dean toward Jamaica, there is no indication of any radical movement north.

1° = 69 statutes miles, benerica (or 60 nautical miles).

But though that always hold true for latitude, for longitude it’s less correct the further from the equator you go. At a latitude of 15°, each ° of longitude is about 3.4% smaller than it would be at the equator.

Florida meteorologists are saying to keep a close eye on the storm.

Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 8:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

I ganked this from Levi32. Hope he doesn't mind, but it is the best model graphic I have ever seen.

It is pretty. And it illustrates just how big and uncertain this is right now...

great link Randyman

noaa say dean will hit any where in the gulf

i disagree with you floridafisherman, none of the models indicate that Dean will hit florida, none of them since a few days ago. if there was a hint of dean hitting florida, it would be in the forecast cone and at least one of the models would show it. but i dont see any of them doing that. why do some people still think that florida Is NOT safe yet?? and if florida is not 100% safe, then why don't forecasters on the news say so, etc.



I've heard a few mets keep an eye on it.

Benirica, I am still seeing the more northern movement... kinda like WNW, it definitely got higher than the expected track, which would bring stronger winds and maybe some more rain to PR.

Well I'm almost certain we're out of the woods here in Florida. I trust what NHC has to say, and they're not indicating anything about Florida. People here seem to want it to hit florida, thus making up senarious. Just let it go.

diabetic, if fla isnt in danger, why is key west, marathon, and a few other FLORIDA cities the only us cities listed in wind probabilities?

and local met on tv here have been talking about the ULL and how it will effect where dean goes. they say until it passes south of fla, we still have to watch.

The bottom line for Florida is this: When Dean gets into the GOM, it'll be a HUGE storm. I'm thinking Ivan, Katrina, Gilbert size. That itself means that Florida is likely to feel an impact from the feeder bands. If Dean landfalls on East TX or (heaven forbid) LA, then the Panhandle could see tropical storm force winds.

I really and truly think that the biggest threat to Florida is from tornadoes spinning out of the thunderstorms in the feeders.

Link

stil looks to me like its going due west now... it did wobble but the wobble is over. i do agree that its going to be a bit closer then expected

Previous positions of Dean

8am 14.4N 61.7W
11am 14.6N 62.6W
2pm 14.8N 63.6W

So Dean is moving approximately 0.2 degrees North and 1 degree West every 3 hours.

If Dean keeps moving in the exact same direct he has been all day and the same speed then at 8am tomorrow he would be at 16.0N 69.6W. The NHC forecast for 8am tomorrow is that Dean will be at 15.8N 69.0W. This is just slightly North and slightly West of the forecast position in 18 hours time.

This post was just to get across to everyone who keeps stating that Dean is moving 'way NW' or 'much more North than the forecast' that this is not in fact the case.

The NHC may adjust the track at 5pm, or at any other time in the future. But right now, based on Dean's speed and direction of movement over the past day, Dean is moving exactly where the NHC said he would.

LOL, people are so funny, go ahead and listen to the so called experts. Predicting weather is about as accurate as predicting the stock market, were you can also find many so called experts. I have been in the computer field for 15 or so years and the models used to predict storm paths are only as good as the programmers (some more so called experts). There are no experts in life just well educated guessers!! My novice advice says be prepared for the worse, stock up on supplies and keep in contact with family. Keep a close eye on exact storm positions not someone’s prediction.
Most of all be safe!!!

Michael, that storm is slowing down a little bit, I remember Dean hauling a$$ around 27-29mph yesterday afternoon, today its moving 18-20mph now, which is still moving fast but a decrease in speed is definitly being noticed.

...eye is visable here

Thanks for the Hurricane Allen graphic, this looks to follow that track almost exactly..as did Gilbert within 50-100 mile error on the right and left side of its track.

Gulf 90 degrees 64 nm south of dauphin Island...Incredible!!Link

Does anyone have a link to the recon flight data in real-time besides the report that comes out? I used one last year at weathermatrix.net/tropical/recon.shtml, which show the data from the plane every minute or so but it does not seem to be working this year. Thanks for your help.