Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Short term on radar looks moving due west

Link

any ideas on if dean will hit LA?

Just saw the link about the Louisiana governor declaring a state of emergency....which means that, because I'm employed by a Louisiana social service agency, I have to pack a bag and wait to be called out to man a shelter...even if the storm would be headed straight for my area...not fun.

on the 18z run the GFS has become an outlier

WOW She did. I thought that was a joke. Unbelievable

SJ,

I know I recently allowed the auto update of Java to occur and I think that coincides with the problems I was having with it loading properly.

Governor declares state of emergency

To me that’s just another example of her incompetence. IMO, it's way too early to declare such an emergency, just think of the panic this will cause those who went through Rita and Katrina. I wouldn’t be surprised if this state of emergency declaration doesn’t cause someone to literally be scared to death before Dean even entered the GOM.

Wow.

The ADT's latest estimate absolutely plummeted (rose in intensity) in T#, especially when lookin at the graph HERE.

It estimates wind speeds of 117 knots. That would make it a Cat 4.

Re:Arctic sea ice shrinks to record low

The loss of so much summer sea ice is very frightening. What’s really amazing is the sat picture which apparently shows open water in McClure Strait, between Banks Island and Melville Island,

I was aboard the USCGC Polar Sea which transited the NW passage above Canada in the summer of 1985.
We had to go through the Prince of Wales Strait, East of Banks Island because McClure Strait was packed with a jumble of multi year ice – we tried McClure Strait but could make no headway through the thick rubble of multi yr ice. This is significant as I had personally seen the Polar Sea transit 5-6 ft thick Ice at 10 Kts and had personally driven through ridges of ice up to 100 ft (measured) thick (albeit - there was some open water on the other side, so the ice had somewhere to move to which helped it break) The ship, Polar Sea, is a Polar Class Icebreaker and is one of the 2 most powerful non-nuclear Icebreakers in the world. Her sister ship Polar Star is the other - 13000 tons, 399 feet long and 60,000+ HP – 75k Hp in short bursts)

If the world’s glaciers are keeping pace (and it seems they are) we could see the ocean levels rise faster than anyone has yet predicted. While the melting sea ice won’t affect sea levels - think of ice in a glass of water, as the ice melts the water level stays the same – the added fresh water and lack of cooling effect will effect water circulation, and the reduction in the reflection of the sun’s energy just adds to the equation. Melting ice cover on Greenland and Antarctica are sure to follow.


I have watched Arctic sea ice conditions since the early 80’s. I have 6 yrs of service on Polar Icebreakers and 6 years doing Oceano data collection and tracking Icebergs in the North Atlantic for the International Ice Patrol. My career as a Oceano tech spans 20 yrs. And this scares the *&^% out of me.

with the pinhole eye, Dean is at least Cat4 by now..

Hurricanes are like Police Chases on t.v. all of the media cover it, everyone watches and then expresses shock that someone actually got killed.

Our neighborhood home owners association has scheduled an emergency meeting on Sunday afternoon to discuss Dean.

Well this kept telling me that I had "virtual machines running too many instances of java"...

I have known of a memory problem with Java for sometime and have a link that will help fix it. I'll post that when I get off this dang laptop!

anyone wanna take a guess at how wide the eye is?

icepilot: And there you have it: The huge air conditioner Dean is about to work overtime on the melting ice.

the 18z gfs is crazy. it has dean going completely west and then turning sw instead of nw like the other models

I am going to go try to relax a bit. When will there be another update? I need to follow this very closely.

This placehas actually slowed down. I thought it crashed for a sec...

next update will be within the hour

Is there a link for the 18Z GFDL? Is it out?

Thank you Metallica1990, I will stay around until it comes in. This has made me a very nervous person. My husband is a doctor, so I believe if we evacuate we may be able to get back into town easier should the storm hit.

I'm still sticking with a Texas landfall even though the GFS is still in Mexico. I think Dean will catch a little more of the ULL at the huge forward momentum of 22mph and it tilted farther north on a jog earlier today.

Nice Link water vapor loop. shows the ull e of Fl. Just toggle back & forth.

I am going to go try to relax a bit. When will there be another update? I need to follow this very closely.

A very good idea on both counts. Mentally prepare, relax, nothing you can do about it anyways. Someone else can tell you the model times, keep an eye on them, that's all we can do.

Just as I thought....even the GFDL is joining the crowd.....Mexico/Texas border is your landfall....

np and best of luck to you

I live in Charleston S.C, and do not have a dog in this fight, but I take this stuff very seriously. We are in sort of a holding pattern as we watch this storm progress and I think there is a little space for the periphials of living with storms. I evacuated for Hugo and lived/worked thru the aftermath. Some one earlier mentioned differiculty of returning to their homes after an evacuation - this can be a real problem. The folks who had homes on the barrior islands were not permitted to return for repair work/salvage of stuff for many weeks. My refuge for Hugo was 75-100 miles inland and we got hammered - need to go inland and to left of anticipated path.

anyone wanna take a guess at how wide the eye is?

Hurricanes are like Police Chases on t.v. all of the media cover it, everyone watches and then expresses shock that someone actually got killed
I vote this as one of the greatest analogies of all time

well i see a cloud comming from the east here in carolina PR and the wind has picked up a lil bit

This afternoon here in Santo Domingo
we had winds from NE 45K-50Km/h

Just as I thought....even the GFDL is joining the crowd.....Mexico/Texas border is your landfall....

Link? The GFDL I'm looking at has it in Louisiana.

Donna is your husband on a DMAT team?

Donna always err on the side of caution. If you are full of nervous energy, you can get all of your important documents and prepare them to travel. I feel tupperware works well. Also, if you have any valuables in a safe deposit at a bank close to the coast, I would pull it.

Cirro,
unfortunatly Hurricanes are considered small, locallized weather patterns/events in world weather.

but not really to me- grin - I live in Fl

Well, we're northwest of San Antonio, in the Hill Country, and we had to evacuate our house last night. We did not flood, thank God; however, we lost yards and yards of bank & the bridge we share with about 6 other homes, the only way we have in and out, was destroyed. We are packing up all keepsakes this weekend and will get them to San Antonio, just in case.

That said, there's a difference between being smart/prepared & being an alarmist. I can not freakin' believe that the gov. of LA already declared a state of emergency. As someone else said, it could scare someone to death. Conversely, if Dean comes nowhere close, it could very well lead to complacency with the next one. It's just irresponsible and obviously just a way for her to be able to say, "...but I TOLD you!" if it does hit. Disgusting.

new gfdl looks like its back to galveston

amen Neponset...I live on Johns Island...evaced to Manning....90 mins north...bad move....it was still awful

The GFDL has gone back to the left. Link

Posted By: gatagus07 at 6:30 PM CDT on August 17, 2007.
Just as I thought....even the GFDL is joining the crowd.....Mexico/Texas border is your landfall

Thats a pretty reckless comment considering the 18z puts it further east.


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

Posted By: DonnaGalveston at 11:24 PM GMT on August 17, 2007.

Our neighborhood home owners association has scheduled an emergency meeting on Sunday afternoon to discuss Dean.
Hi Donna......My sister lived in Galveston for 10 years...nice place.
I would strongly advise that you listen to your local emergency management, and watch the storm track closely yourself, using NHC and this site....to make your evacuation decision. Don't rely on your homeowner's association meeting in 2 days in considering when and where to evacuate. If it was me I'd be packing, waiting and watching. Best of luck to you and yours.

It's good if Dean peaks too early right?

It's very rare that storms stay cat 5 for days right?

Scary Dean

18Z GFDL solution moved to a landfall north of Corpus Cristi, close to Matagorda in 4.5 days.

the only way it would turn north is if the ULL erodes at the high which could happen.

Let me emphasize again - Dean's eye is not pinhole. A pinhole is a stable eye that's only ~5-6 miles in diameter (Wilma's got as small as 2). Dean's eye, per the 5PM, is 15nm wide.

Luiz Munoz International Airport
Lat: 18.43 N Lon: 66 W Elev: 9 ft
Last Update on Aug 17, 6:56 pm AST


Partly Cloudy and Breezy

82°F
(28°C) Humidity: 79 %
Wind Speed: E 21 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 29.91"
Dewpoint: 75°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 89°F (32°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History:


Soon i should get some TS gusts

IMA- after Katrina, the earlier the better in trying to organize for a mass evacuation if you ask me. If youy only get 2 days to plan and you are not extremely organized, it'd be tough to evacuate high population areas (remember the Houston mess with people running out of gas, etc on the freeways?). Better to be saf As the saying goes... but ya it seems early.

Crossing 15N 65W right exactly where the NHC said it would. So far the NHC track is a good one, but we've got a long way to go.

Link

to answer your question about how long cat 5s can last