Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 18. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:38 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.

Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.


Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.

Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

819. guygee
26. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:04 (GMT)
NEW BLOG, LOL.
Member Since: 16.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
817. gthsii
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:54 (GMT)
speaking of the africa wave about to exit, curious but there seems to be a lull right after that one, has looked like that for a couple of days now. the train may be taking a brief break and getting ready to pick back up again after its rest.
816. bobw999
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
815. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Stoormfury, i don't think that wave is gonna last much longer. More interested in the wave at 15N 64W.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
814. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Morning StormW. Watching a strong tropical wave around the lesser Antilles.
It looks like it was in the low/mid levels. Shear is only 5-10 knots so we will see what happens.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
813. stoormfury
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
the low and wave in the CALT is still holding on to it's identity. although the wave is embedded in dry air, what are it's chances of development?
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
812. hurricane23
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Yes a mid-level spin is noted in the area near the islands.I think this wave has some chance to develope as it continues westward into the caribbean.

NHC 8:05 on the wave-

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 20N61W 14N64W 6N64W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD WAVE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W
. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 59W-69W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO THE ABC ISLANDS.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
810. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:44 (GMT)
15N 64w.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
809. amazinwxman
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:42 (GMT)
the wave that has passed the Antilles (sp?) does that wave have potential to do something and what are it's coordinates please?
808. biff4ugo
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:38 (GMT)
There is something big spinning off the edge of Africa today.
Looks like the hurricane generating "smoke signals" I'm used to.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1496
807. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:34 (GMT)
There is no SFC low according to the QuickSAT, buoy,vis loops, and vorticity analysis. Maybe a mid level spin.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
804. eaglesrock
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:31 (GMT)
TCC, I've been here since last August. And yes, I'm the same eagles from storm chat.
803. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:28 (GMT)
texascanecaster1 where is the SFC low???
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
801. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:26 (GMT)
the 700mb vorticity shows that there is some spin in the area.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
800. groundman
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:26 (GMT)
Kindergarten, I do know how to spell it. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
799. kmanislander
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Well gotta get ready for work now but will BB later
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
798. groundman
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:24 (GMT)
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:15 PM GMT on July 19, 2007.
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.


Maybe moonlightcowboy was right last night. @ the present course looks like it's heading for TX @ this rate? Of course I realize there are 3 million reasons for it not to develop or head a different direction. :-)

I'm SURE this is a bit like kindgergarten for most of you but there is an online guide or course if you will on tropical storms by NOAA
HERE. Quite interesting and after I read it all maybe I will retain 1/10 of what it says?
797. amazinwxman
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:24 (GMT)
Good Morning all

Ok so whats going on in the tropics this morn? anything that has potential and hurricane23 what area is the one to watch?
796. kmanislander
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Hi Drak

The Caribbean wave and the one that just exited the W coast of Africa are the two potential players IMO.

There is some spin near the ABC islands and shear is low in the Caribbean at this time. The only inhibiting factor of note is the ULL over the Caymans which has been stationary now for two days. If that moves away it would open the door for some possible development in the NW Caribbean this weekend depending on how the wave tracks through the Caribbean
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
795. hurricane23
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:20 (GMT)
Another pic...

rr
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
794. Drakoen
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:20 (GMT)
hello everyone. I see we are watching the wave of Africa and the wave around the lesser Anitlles.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
793. hurricane23
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Yes Kman this is area to watch in opinion as you can already see some hints of mid-level spin in the area.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
792. eaglesrock
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:12 (GMT)
I feel sorry for Japan.
790. kmanislander
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Good morning everyone

A very strong wave is traversing the Caribbean this morning and there is some hint of a rotation near 12N 68W. The quikscat pass for the morning does not show a surface low but there is a SE to NE wind shift

If the ULL over the Caymans moves away or weakens this wave could become quite interesting in The C and NW Caribbean

Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
789. primez
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:03 (GMT)
It's funny, because Newsday JUST yesterday said that yesterday's storm demonstrated Long Island's unpreparedness for a hurricane. If CMC's fantasy were to come true, it would REALLY put us to the test.

The article:http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-lilipa0719,0,600351.story?coll=ny-baseball-h eadlines&track=mostemailedlink
Member Since: 18.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
788. IKE
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:57 (GMT)
This trough that's coming into the SE USA this weekend...that's it for troughs in the east for awhile. The doctors talk of the pattern changing is fixin to come true.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
787. initforwaves
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Morning all. Looks pretty quiet so far, tropical wave at 12N about to come off Africa but everything else looks really disorganized...
786. MrNiceville
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:26 (GMT)
OK, guys, I said it was a CMC fantasy - I don't see how in the world "it could happen tomorrow" (I'll leave that to the WC)...

Seriously, any chance of the low up there developing and heading west? I also noticed an area of spin on the WV loop just S of Cuba - in the visible, there's really nothing but a few puffy clouds.

It looks, this morning, like the ITCZ train tracks guide everything into SA.


Thoughts?
785. MrNiceville
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:01 (GMT)
Good Morning.

Well, I see that the CMC hasn't left the opium den, yet. The 00Z run shifts the track ever so slightly westward and takes the "storm" directly into the heart of the NE now!

I don't want to encourage the CMC - it's been such a dog this season...

But, anyone notice that the low at 66W26N is actually migrating SE just a bit?

Here's a CMC fantasy for everyone...

The aforementioned low gets pushed SSE and then SW by the AB high. Somewhere just north of the DR, it organizes better and draws in the moisture now in the Windwards. The trough moves off the east coast and the developed TD begins it's trek NNE.

That's as far as I absolutley can stretch my little imagination to even consider the CMC scenario - beyond that, the CMC is simply a crack fiend...
783. Caymanite
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:38 (GMT)
Good morning all. Looks like the wave that was at 50W last night actually tracked south of West last night and is about to run into S America and has weakened considerably. Good news.
Member Since: 9.12.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
781. Thundercloud01221991
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:16 (GMT)
cosme to reintensify

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
780. bobw999
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:33 (GMT)
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190959
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUL 19 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO MAZATLAN. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
779. stoormfury
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:30 (GMT)
has the low in the CATL reformed at 10N 34W.? I notice that there is a spin and increase convection
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
778. stoormfury
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 09:42 (GMT)
the wave off Africa looks impressive and should traverse the ALT without hindrance from the SAL. on the other hand the wave and low in the CALT id being infiltrated by dry air.




Link
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
777. stoormfury
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 09:35 (GMT)
A look at the SAL this morning.


Link
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
776. BahaHurican
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 06:32 (GMT)
Evening (or morning :o) all,

Here's an interesting forecast for Sunday that suggests what Dr. M may have been referring to as "something to watch". Also, while many were disparaging of the CMC, isn't this the timeframe it was calling for a storm in? Maybe this "break" in the high is what is causing it to make such a initially laughable forecast.

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
775. ustropics
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:43 (GMT)
Latest Quikscat run of GOM.

QuicScat Image

(click image for actual size)

774. moonlightcowboy
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:34 (GMT)
Groundman, good report. We were talking a good deal about Charley earlier.

For some reason (can't explain), got a hunch we're gonna see a storm (maybe Chantal) find the Texas coast! Go figure?
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
773. groundman
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:31 (GMT)
I've been doing an informal survey of past storms in the archives (translation, surfing lookin @ all of em, click click, mindless) Anyway when you all started talking about 60W I looked @ that general area for past development. Charley in 2004 developed there. Most of the others went slightly NW into Mexico. Just food for thought if it does become 97L.
772. moonlightcowboy
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:21 (GMT)
Yeah, Wish, it was alright.
It may be a fish; and I was mostly talking about the blob at about 54w...and not really saying it would do either, develop or die. There's more on the way soon anyway, I'm sure.

You have a good night.
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
771. Wishcasterboy
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:13 (GMT)
It was fun debating with you, Cowboy.
770. Wishcasterboy
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:12 (GMT)
I wish I would stick around, but I'm not the only one who uses this computer. As for my opinion, I remain adamant my prediction of 60W wave's fate.
769. moonlightcowboy
19. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:08 (GMT)
Died=shear.
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594

Viewing: 819 - 769

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
41 °F
Selkeää