Restoring confidence in NHC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:24 (GMT)

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There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 4 typhoon, Man-Yi, will pass close to Okinawa on Friday, and hit Japan on Saturday. Winds at Okinawa have been as high as 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some links on Man-Yi, sent to me by Jim Edds:

Live camera feed from Southern Okinawa:

click on the pic arrow on the bottom right.

Okinawa radar.
click on Okinawa to zoom in - awesome shot

Camera feed with some audio.
click on the first "no image" box then select "report 17/66"


Latest satellite image of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Restoring confidence in the NHC
Interim National Hurricane Director Dr. Ed Rappaport has two immediate tasks--restoring morale fractured by Bill Proenza's turbulent 6-month tenure, and restoring public confidence in the Hurricane Center's ability to do their job. With the steadying influence of Dr. Rappaport, a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist, I expect that the staff of NHC will put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season. Aiding in this endeavor will be the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model. In addition, several of the other reliable models used by the forecasters, such as the GFS and GFDL, have had upgrades since last hurricane season. Furthermore, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be carrying the SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005. Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1), a remarkable achievement that has undoubtedly saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars. The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record). NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.



Figure 1. Track forecast skill since 1990 in the Atlantic for the official NHC forecasts. Track errors are given in nautical miles (100 n mi = 115 miles). Skill is rated compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists).

Intensity forecasts
Intensity forecasts since 1990 have shown little or no improvement, and 2006 was no exception (Figure 2). One encouraging result was the emergence of the GFDL's intensity model as the best intensity model for 2006. This is the first time that a non-statistical model has made the best intensity forecasts. With the major improvements that were added for the 2007 version of the GFDL, plus the availability of the HWRF model, I am hopeful that this year will see the first noticeable improvement in intensity forecasts since 1990.



Figure 2. Intensity forecast skill since 1990 of the official NHC Atlantic forecasts. Intensity errors are given in knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph).

Jeff Masters

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1788. CJ5
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:48 (GMT)
Thanks again, Drak. I didn't even check the date. I assumed it was current and you know what happens when you assume.....
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1786. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:38 (GMT)
CJ5 theres a new blog and the MM5FSU model run if you are using it from the link i posted dates back to last year. old run.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1785. CJ5
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:35 (GMT)
I did not see any of the other models developing this wave but, do you guys see anything significant about the "blob" developing at 80/10 around 80hrs from the mm5FSU model?
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1784. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:29 (GMT)
new blog guys..
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1783. IKE
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:24 (GMT)
If the CMC models stays, does the math/distance work out to identify this as the wave they may be projecting?

Yes.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1782. CJ5
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:21 (GMT)
If you look at the computer model forecast all the model have that high shear area moving to the north and disspating somewhat as it does so.
If you look at the SAL movie you can see the SAL weakening.


Thanks, Drak. I have noticed the SAL weaking. It certainly has decreased alot since 96L. I have a hard time reading the shear maps but you seem to have a very good handle on that aspect.

If the CMC models stays, does the math/distance work out to identify this as the wave they may be projecting?
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1781. thisisfurious
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:14 (GMT)
cycloneOz - I know that there are many image loops to choose from (a dime a dozen?), but I do want to commend you on the quality of your work. They were smooth and well done and very interesting to watch. A bit of an art form in itself.

Keep it up!
1780. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Guess we will have to wait for the 12z runs.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1779. cchsweatherman
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:10 (GMT)
It is looking very interesting now in the tropics as an arriving MJO and a developing La Nina are arriving at the perfect time to potentially have a breakout of tropical activity right in the heart of hurricane season. The CMC model from yesterday caught my eye yet alone my attention as it appears as if a tropical system was forecasted to target So. Fla. in 144 hours and that these tropical waves are continually coming off Africa at a higher frequency and appear to be stronger every time. I have a "gut feeling" as Michael Chertoff would say, that we are now in the calm before the storm as the ingredients are now just setting into place. Buckle your seatbelts boys. We are in for a bumpy ride.
Member Since: 14.04.2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5030
1778. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Posted By: CJ5 at 2:05 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

The wave at 45/13 may be one to watch. It is moving WNW and this track would seem to jive with the CMC model. Current shear in the path increases to 20,30 and 40 and there is still plenty of dry air ahead of it. I do not see any spin with it but my eyes are slow to pick up on that lol


If you look at the computer model forecast all the model have that high shear area moving to the north and disspating somewhat as it does so.
If you look at the SAL movie you can see the SAL weakening.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1777. Jedkins
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:07 (GMT)
oh ya 105 mph can do some significant at damage persistent levels, esspecially when added to hours and hours of hurricane force winds like theyve had.
1776. CJ5
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:05 (GMT)
The wave at 45/13 may be one to watch. It is moving WNW and this track would seem to jive with the CMC model. Current shear in the path increases to 20,30 and 40 and there is still plenty of dry air ahead of it. I do not see any spin with it but my eyes are slow to pick up on that lol
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1755
1775. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:02 (GMT)
the max wind gust was 105 mph easily knock out power, trees, etc.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1774. Jedkins
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:01 (GMT)
10.57 inches of rain fell in an hour reported at Okinowa!


Link
1773. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 14:00 (GMT)
heres the Quicksat from this morning. Look around 10N 45W.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1772. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Hey WhirlWind!

I think I just got the images. Had to place an ftp order with a university. The images I requested are the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector for June 1, 2005 - November 1, 2005...

They estimate the size of the order is 907MB...which is about right!

Oooo Oooo! :)
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1771. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Yea Taz. I saw that too. i had to look at the loops alot to confirm it though. Looks to be at the wave axis, makes sense.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1770. Jedkins
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Okinowa has had over 25 inches of rain from Man-yi since yesterday, thats pretty impressive.
1769. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1768. Tazmanian
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:56 (GMT)
we now have a low with are wave i can see the spin vary well on this loop

Link
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
1767. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:35 (GMT)
One early report from a News Source

Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1766. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:32 (GMT)
Im trying to get some NIPPON news this am ..But the Island has power Im seeing on the southern Webcams..
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1765. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:28 (GMT)
The Katrina / Rita animation was better, but still not up to my standards.

You'll notice that images spaced 1 hour apart were used.

I like using 2 images per hour.

Unfortunately, I'll have to go to 1 image per hour when I create my full season animation in November of this year because of the space limitations on YouTube.

However, I will create full image count June - August and September - November animations as well as any special ones.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1764. weathermanwannabe
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Good Morning All (or should I day the few?)...I'll be lurking today due to busy work issues but all is clear in the Atlantic (although the Northern component of the wave is starting to pulse and looks interesting if it can hold over the next 3-4 days). Seems to me, as historically proven, that August & September will be the months to watch in the Atlantic, so, I plan to "chill" a little bit with the family over the next few weeks.....Enjoy some quiet Summer time folks!
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8311
1763. NormalGuy
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:24 (GMT)
Good morning Patrap, how did our boys make it through last night and has the brunt of the storm passes Oki? Can you update me on anything worth watching this morning? Semper Fi
1762. whirlwind
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:23 (GMT)
nice...thx

cyclone.. here is a directory of inimations of canes from 95 to present. maybe you can play with these?

Link
1761. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Try NOAA contact page for the info,They usually respond
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1760. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:21 (GMT)
The quality of that video is not very good.

I know that the images are public domain...but 2005 images are no longer available. At least...I can't get to them.

If I could get them, I'd create some animations that would be of a quality higher in price than a dime a dozen...
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1759. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
CLoser view of 05 from the previous

Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1758. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1757. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Anyone can get them.Its public domain material
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1756. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Heres the 2005 H season .Just go to YouTube and use the searcxh engine.There a dime a dozen



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1755. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:15 (GMT)
If Dr. Masters can get me the entire bank of images from the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector FROM JUNE 1, 2005 - NOVEMBER 1, 2005 , I'll be more than happy to make some very very cool animations for everyone!!!!

ARE YOU THERE, DOCTOR?

ozman_rebel@yahoo.com
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1754. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1753. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Sorry, WhirlWind...

My service for humanity creating these animations began on 6/1/2007.

So the next time there's a big outbreak like '05...I'll have 'em...but then...so will you too. I'm going to do this work every year from now on. It's hard...but it's fun.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1752. whirlwind
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:07 (GMT)
Hey Cyclone... do you have an animation like that for the whole '05 season???
Im still looking for that, just so far have found individual anims.
thanks....
1751. CycloneOz
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:04 (GMT)
BRAND NEW & CURRENT TO JULY 12, 2007

THE GOES EAST INFRARED HURRICANE SECTOR IMAGERY TIME LAPSE ANIMATION!


Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
1750. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Have a good weekend folks.
Zooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1749. Patrap
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:03 (GMT)
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
1748. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 13:02 (GMT)
blog is empty today..
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1747. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:58 (GMT)

Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1746. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:53 (GMT)
you can see what i am talking about if you look at the RGB loop and the Quicksat.

Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1745. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:52 (GMT)
Posted By: IKE at 12:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

The convection in that wave has split in two. The bottom...more westerly portion, appears headed for South America. The top and further east portion has a spin and is heading west..to west-NW.


some of the moisture between 55w-50W is associated with the ITCZ. the convection to the north is not.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1744. IKE
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:49 (GMT)
The convection in that wave has split in two. The bottom...more westerly portion, appears headed for South America. The top and further east portion has a spin and is heading west..to west-NW.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1743. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:48 (GMT)
might be developing a llc south of the heavy convection.
>
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1742. IKE
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:45 (GMT)
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:31 AM CDT on July 13, 2007.
it didn't exactly drop the system. One thing i have noticed is that it spins something up on the 12z runs. Yesterdays 0z run did that same thing as the current 0z run.
Right now a strong wave is shown on the CMC possibly a TD.


I've seen models do that. They have a storm...drop it...add it back...drop it again....

Makes it hard to believe the model.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1741. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1740. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:41 (GMT)
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1739. Drakoen
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:31 (GMT)
it didn't exactly drop the system. One thing i have noticed is that it spins something up on the 12z runs. Yesterdays 0z run did that same thing as the current 0z run.
Right now a strong wave is shown on the CMC possibly a TD.
Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1738. plywoodstatenative
13. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:30 (GMT)
amazin, like it was said earlier. The time for south florida should be august/september. Do not really look for anything until the shear drops out and the water temps reach max in the carib/Atl.
Member Since: 15.11.2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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