Bill Proenza gone; tropical update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 20:35 (GMT)

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With hurricane season fast approaching and internal strife threatening "the effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center", as stated in a letter signed by 23 of NHC's 49 employees, NOAA did the best thing by reassigning director Bill Proenza this afternoon. Conrad Lautenbacher, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced Proenza has been placed on leave "until further notice."

The reassignment puts NHC deputy director Ed Rappaport, 49, into the director's hot seat. I greatly respect Dr. Rappaport, who has done a great job as deputy director and is a highly skilled hurricane forecaster. Dr. Rappaport has a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Texas Tech. He began work in 1988 at NHC, and served as one NHC's Hurricane Specialists before becoming chief of the Technical Support Branch. He is the best choice for director of NHC. He had wide support to become director last year when Max Mayfield retired, but turned down the job due to family reasons.

Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. A cold front is expected to push off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, and we will have to watch the waters off the North Carolina coast then for development when the front stalls out. In the Pacific, an exceptionally large Category 1 typhoon, Man-Yi, is expected to become a major typhoon, and will threaten Japan late this week.

Jeff Masters

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1329. CycloneQld
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:28 (GMT)
If Japan thinks Godzilla is big then they should take a look at this...

Man-Yi Eyewall


Dvorak Man-Yi Current


The beast has been unleashed...
1328. IKE
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:27 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1326. Stormchaser2007
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:21 (GMT)
Hey StormW what time does your synopsis come out?? Im always so impressed by it.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1325. Patrap
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:20 (GMT)
Man-yi. - Multispectral Satellite Imagery

Link

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
1323. groundman
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:16 (GMT)
stoormfury, what is the MDR?? I know MJO and SAL but MDR?
1322. stoormfury
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 12:08 (GMT)
good morning

the MDR is a death bed for any systems trying to form., because of the high wind shear. Also the SAL is very dense all the way from Africa to the lesser Antilles. The only area is at 9N 32W ahead of a westward moving tropical wave at 28W.

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY FORECAST AS TO WHEN THE SHEAR WILL RELAX.
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1321. CycloneQld
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:57 (GMT)
Man-Yi is really ramping it up now...

Dvorak readings are now stating that winds are approaching 100kts and that surface pressures are below 950mb - that is a drop of almost 30mb in just 3 hours.

According to those readings Man-Yi is easily a Cat 3 already and well on the way to being a super typhoon.

Centre temps are now reporting in the positives for the first time also, meaning that the eye is now cloud free to allow the column of air within free to aid in the further intensification of the storm.

1320. sporteguy03
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:57 (GMT)
StormW,
Good Morning, today the GFS and CMC are hinting at development. Look forward to Synopsis
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
1319. MissBennet
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:53 (GMT)
Thanks for the Sat. Pic Patrap, Man-yi sure is getting pretty.
1318. BahaHurican
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:52 (GMT)
Morning all,

I'll be out most of the day, so I won't be able to add much to the blog. However, I have to say Man-yi is looking ever more impressive with each 12-hour period. I'll be fascinated to see what it looks like by the time I get back this evening!

Sunshine, on the rapid dissapation, look at a sat. loop that shows the area NW of Japan. Looks like some competition for the space may be coming along to at least redirect Man-yi if not to destroy it.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
1317. Patrap
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:51 (GMT)
Okinawa now in full prep mode for Man-yi.Kadena AFB moving Aircraft to Points off the Island.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
1316. Patrap
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:50 (GMT)
West-Pacific Full Disk IR. Man-yi centered.

Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
1315. Stormchaser2007
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:49 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1314. Patrap
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:48 (GMT)
Man-yi guidance track and Info..JTWC

Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125717
1312. franck
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:47 (GMT)
Eight millibars in an an hour and a half. Is that right? By the look of cloud formation, Man Yi is still in its infancy.
Member Since: 30.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
1311. Stormchaser2007
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:42 (GMT)
Like drak would say : " 144 hours is like looking into a crystal ball" lol
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1310. groundman
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:42 (GMT)
Posted By: IKE at 11:12 AM GMT on July 11, 2007.
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.


I haven't looked on models closely this morn but that's the one that was looking more solid than the others for lack of a better word.

Oh and GOOD MORNING all. Man-yi looks more impressive by the moment.
1309. stormybil
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:26 (GMT)
i dont see it either but they do somewhere hehe but i do see the one by 35 been asking about that all night
1308. IKE
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:25 (GMT)
There's nothing by PR...

The system with some promise is about at 8N,32W.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1307. stormybil
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:22 (GMT)
this might help .local news says watching a tropical wave by pr that will be in the car and may develope stay tuned
1306. bobw999
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:20 (GMT)
Maybe like Chris last year:


1305. scwindsaloft
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:15 (GMT)
gfs hints at the same system t=144

Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 399
1304. IKE
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:12 (GMT)
And looking at the CMC model run...it could be that system around 30-35 west.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1303. IKE
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:06 (GMT)
sporteguy03....maybe that's the system out in the Atlantic that they show north of Hispanola in 144 hours?
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1302. sunshineandshowers
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:04 (GMT)
man-yi looking very impressive?

I can see this becoming a supertyphoon by Friday if it get's it continues to get its act together.

The models are showing rapid dissapationg though as it aprroaches Japan, maybe not even making landfall on the mainland. I guess that's good news but I can't see that happening. There would have to be some serious wind shear.
Member Since: 30.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
1301. sporteguy03
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 11:00 (GMT)
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

What's this? The CMC developing something North of Hispanola? More on this all day at Dr.M's blog!
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
1300. sporteguy03
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:52 (GMT)
Good Morning!
Let us keep an eye on 30-35 W some convection still part of ITCZ but could break off we'll see now back to your local forecast
Member Since: 7.07.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5120
1298. snowboy
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:38 (GMT)
Discussion from JTWC site:

REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 132.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING EYE. IN ADDITION
TO PREXISTING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE TY HAS ENTERED A REGION
OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW CONDITIONS
ARE ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 30 FEET.
Member Since: 21.09.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
1297. Thundercloud01221991
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:29 (GMT)
Almost a Cat 3
Member Since: 1.08.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
1296. snowboy
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 10:22 (GMT)
BULLETIN
TYPHOON MAN-YI (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 PM GUAM LST WED JUL 11 2007

...TYPHOON MAN-YI TRACKING STEADILY NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAN-YI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 880 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON MAN-YI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 105 MPH. TYPHOON MAN-YI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 PM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 132.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.
Member Since: 21.09.2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2547
1295. TayTay
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 09:39 (GMT)
Looking at that monster makes me shudder.
1294. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 09:25 (GMT)
convection really wrapping around center & establishing good outflow Time to batten down the hatches!!!!!
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1293. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 08:46 (GMT)
Still wobbling, going through eyewall replacement...if there is low shear in its path, this thing going to bomb!!Link
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1292. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 08:43 (GMT)
Man-Yi really wrapping now....
Wunderground says its at cat 1 status??? Sure looks stonger than that to me...
Link
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1291. KoritheMan
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 08:00 (GMT)
Looks like I can't count out that rapid intensification just yet. I though that Man-yi wouldn't make it to super typhoon status, but I think that is possible, although by about 20-30%.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19144
1290. CycloneQld
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 06:59 (GMT)
According to Dvorak readings, Man-Yi has dropped 8mb in pressure during the past 1.5 hours.

If the poleward side gets some decent convection going, we are going to see something truly scary.
Man-Yi IR


Look at the amount of associated activity on the equatorial side of the storm, amazing!
1289. moonlightcowboy
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 06:32 (GMT)
Good stuff tonight. Met an airman with a close friend to the HH's, swapped some emails, hoping to get some good stuff from them to share with the blog soon. SUPER nice!

Big purple people eater looks like it's headed to Japan...whoa, and looking more symetrical and dangerous, too.
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1288. moonlightcowboy
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 06:29 (GMT)
Posted By: kmanislander at 2:28 AM GMT on July 11, 2007.
I'm actually sitting in the pool now as I type!


...in the south, that boy is what we call a "over-cooked ham"....LOL. (jfk, kman)
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
1287. hosweather
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 06:25 (GMT)
There is a nice picture of Man Yi on weather.com

Link
1286. TayTay
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:50 (GMT)
Man Yi is going to really intensify in the next 24 hours.
1285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:44 (GMT)
man yi about to kick it up notch
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52390
1284. sullivanweather
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:18 (GMT)
JWTC has this just south of Tokyo...
in 5 days....forgot that part. oops
Member Since: 8.03.2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
1283. CycloneQld
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:11 (GMT)
The Dvorak has begun its dive:

Dvorak Man-Yi

6 Hr average of 3.8, but Raw is listing already at 6.2 which is some rapid intensification indeed...

Japan better start getting prepared as this is not going to dissapate before landfall...

1282. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:09 (GMT)
classic wobble from wall replacement indicating strengthening
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1281. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:07 (GMT)
Sfranz that shot really shows how strong its getting!! & yes getting stadium seating allright lol
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1280. Fshhead
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:05 (GMT)
yup looking like intensification all right!!
Good satellite shot here...
Link
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
1279. sfranz
11. heinäkuuta 2007 klo 05:05 (GMT)

Nice loop of the eye formation. (Is that a wee bit of stadium effect already?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-rgb.html
Member Since: 4.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 149

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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