Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 16:43 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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959. HOWIEEE
8. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:37 (GMT)
THE HURRICNE SEASON IN THE SOUTHEN HEMISPHERE WAS VERY QUIET. I WATCHED THE WHOLE SEASON WITH ALL MY BEST SATTELLITES AND SAW ONE STRONG HURRICANE HIT MADAGASCAR WITH 130 MPH WINDS FOR TWO DAYS AND TWO OTHER CAT.ONE HURR. HIT THE SAME AREA. THERE WERE ABOUT FOUR OTHER SMALL STORMS THAT HIT NORTHERN AUSTRALIA THE REST WERE HARMLESS. IF WE ARE TO SEE THE SAME TAME HURR SEASON, THEN WE SHOULD SEE 10 NAMED STORMS, 3 HURR CAT 2 , AND ONE OR 2 CAT. 3 -- AND THE REST SMALL TS.OR CAT. ONE ...BASICALLY A MILD HURR SEASON. .I WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY LAST YEAR 2006 BY GOING THE OPPOSITE OF THE BIGGIES FORECAST.. LETS HOPE IM RIGHT AGAIN THIS YEAR. OH YES THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTION. I LIVE IN BOYNTON BEACH FL.AND SAW THE EYE OF WILMA COME RIGHT SMACK OVER MY HEAD, WITH THE LOWEST PRESS. OF 27.98 " hg. AND WIND EST,AT 120-125 AT THE WEST EYEWALL. WOW WHAT A THRILL. THAT WAS THE FIFTH EYE FOR ME IN THE LAST 55 YEARS. HAZEL IN 1954 WAS FANTASTIC 115 MPH ON MY BEACH. 16 FOOT WAVES. WOW.....HOWIE
Member Since: 10.10.2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 2
958. HOWIEEE
8. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:15 (GMT)
BARRY WAS NEVER A TROPICAL STORM AT ALL ...ITS PURE BALONY . JUST PLAYING ALONG WITH THE CORRUPT MEDIA FOR NO GOOD REASON...LETS STICK TO REAL WEATHER SCIENCE. AND STOP TH B.S.
Member Since: 10.10.2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 2
957. H2PV
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 05:47 (GMT)
Navy is predicting that Gonu will be a cat 3 or higher for the next 24 hours right up to it's brush with Onan.

Then, with at least a third of the storm overland cut off from it's fuel, it is predicted to plunge to high Cat 1.

Link

Fortunately it is hitting with it's soft left shoulder instead of the hard right. On the right shoulder the surge would still be cat 5 strength at landfall with 40 foot waves on top, basically as high as an eight-story building. They won't get most of that because they are on the left shoulder.
956. sullivanweather
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 05:22 (GMT)
Thunder, Gonu will be lucky to still be a CAT2 by the time it brushes Oman with all the dry air it is running into
Member Since: 8.03.2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
955. H2PV
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 05:22 (GMT)
The navy, at this minute, says that Gonu is a cat 4/5 borderline hurricane.

Embedded in the image name is the windspeed, 135kts, and the datestamp of the image.


Gonu 135 kts, borderline Cat 4/5 hurricane.

I don't know why somebody would think this is a borderline cat 2/3 hurricane, 105 kts?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/tc_pages/
thumbs/IO/02A.GONU/pacific/southern_hemisphere/
vis/geo/vis/geo/1km_zoom/
20070605.0430.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.02AGONU.
135kts-904mb-209N-625E.100pc.jpg
954. thunder01
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 05:19 (GMT)
Gonu is still cat 5. Wunderground maps have reverted 24 hours for some reason. Most recent fix has the storm at 155 mph sustained (not 105). Forecast to brush Oman as a cat 4, and hit Iran as a cat 1/2. Pretty incredible.
953. fldoughboy
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:47 (GMT)
Gonu seems to be winding down from 160 to now 105. It seems to made it's way into the dust and dry air and is getting entrained in the storm.
I saw one model and it was suppose to nip Oman and go into Iran. The models then changed again to right around where it was this morning. Very strange.
952. moonlightcowboy
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:30 (GMT)
Posted By: Jedkins at 2:06 AM GMT on June 05, 2007.

ya well say what you want, but unless that SST map is not accurate or they are probably releasing that because its easier for the public to understand....And since the general public realy doesn't care about all the details and never will, all they need to do is make general statements like, "cooler water temps in its path" or "deep moisture moving into place" or "sharp temp contrast. Hope you get my point.

...yeah, well Jed, maybe your point should be that in most newscasts, weather only gets a couple of minutes to make their case. It isn't that the "general public" doesn't totally understand, or care. It's more of a time factor for explaining the "details" as you put it, than the publics capacity to digest and discern information! There is news, sports and stuff called commercials that require time to pay the bills that all limit time. This is why members come to this site.
Member Since: 9.07.2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
951. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:20 (GMT)
Gonu will approach the capital of Oman, which is a city of 600,000 right on the coast of the Gulf of Oman.
950. sullivanweather
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 04:08 (GMT)
dust


Looks like the large area of dust and dry air is beginning to impact Gonu
Member Since: 8.03.2007 Posts: 273 Comments: 12612
949. stormybil
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:44 (GMT)
what ever that is coming off the yucatan our local mets are saying it will bring rain some heavy to so. fla the next 3 days

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 24N. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
5-10 KT. SOME WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER INLAND NE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-32N BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 87W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
WLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO..S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
948. seminolesfan
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:44 (GMT)
and blow that diaper off his head!
Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
947. franck
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:41 (GMT)
The winds gonna get up the Sultan's skirt!!!
Member Since: 30.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
946. BahaHurican
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:37 (GMT)
Evening, all.

Here's another shot of Gonu from earlier today:



Larger views of the same pic can be seen here.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
945. tornadodude
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:36 (GMT)
evening all

there was a tornado about 50 miles north of my town in central indiana. was kinda unexpected. a sign of stormy times to come over the next few days.
Member Since: 28.06.2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
944. seminolesfan
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:35 (GMT)
Posted By: RL3AO at 3:33 AM GMT on June 05, 2007.
The JTWC isnt in the interest of dumbing down forecasts...thats the NHC's job.


Ummmm...
Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
943. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:33 (GMT)
The JTWC isnt in the interest of dumbing down forecasts...thats the NHC's job.
942. seminolesfan
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:33 (GMT)
Just for the record, I agree that more factors than SSTs are the cause of Gonu's decline in strength.

Just dont say that a pro. forcast is riddled with the same misinformation as a TV broadcast.
Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
941. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:28 (GMT)
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 10:14 PM CDT on June 04, 2007.
RL3AO, how can they be afternoon thunderstorms, its 10pm at night there


They developed 3 or 4 hours ago. I think.
940. seminolesfan
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:26 (GMT)
I really don't think the paid professional mets at the JTWC are gonna dumb down their forcasts with intentional misinformation just for the sake of layperson understanding.

I think even the hardcore conspriacy theorists are gonna have a hard time believing those statements Jed.
Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
939. swlaaggie
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:20 (GMT)
70-75 mph wind gusts from thunderstorm in Lake Charles today. Patio umbrellas, trampolenes, grills all flying through the air this afternoon. Very, very bad storm. Kind of felt like I was back in Oklahoma and Texas. Don't miss those at all.
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1032
938. seminolesfan
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:18 (GMT)


we've already had a decent jumpstart from Alberto



Alberto, Jed. Really...are you sure? lol

Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
937. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:17 (GMT)
lol afternoon thunderstorms, no harm in watching
Member Since: 30.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 467
934. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:12 (GMT)
No. Barbara is gone. Those are just afternoon thunderstorms.
933. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 03:04 (GMT)
Is that low over land on the yucatan peninsula a remnant of barbara?

Any chance it will move into the GOM?
Member Since: 30.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 467
932. hurricane91
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:50 (GMT)
it says on weather.com that the current pressure in Adam,Oman is 28.02 or 948 mb,thats night right,cant be?
931. groundman
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:48 (GMT)
Posted By: stormybil at 2:03 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.
her you go Link ill be watching the one off the yucatan it is close to home and anything can pop up at anytime its looking good at this hour thought it might be somthing


Thanks belatedly Stormybil, that's what I was looking for.
929. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:26 (GMT)
It did strengthen in the night. Its now day time there. It probably has something to do with that.
925. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:12 (GMT)
I was looking at the weather conditions in Oman. Its 78 to 80 degrees...oh, thats not the temp, thats the dew point.
924. Jedkins
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:11 (GMT)
The air isn't dry near the surface for one, and its June now so its going to be hot as long as there is abundant sun , air aloft is dry, but tropical ssystems disrupt the atmosphere, sometimes keeping it wetter than normal, or drier depending on the situation with the storm, in this case drier with barry.

Also after recent rain from barry, ground is currently wet for now unless it stays dry for a while, so things are better. Its just a psychological effect, lets look at the glass half full, Florida isn't coming to an end as we know it, things will get better, and we've already had a decent jumpstart from Alberto, whether it takes a few months or another year before we are truly normal, normal Florida rain will once return.

I know its hard, but don't worry, things will change in time, opefully as soon as possible, but we need to be ready to halff to deal with it in case it is a while longer, but in time things will go back to normal.
923. Jedkins
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:06 (GMT)
ya well say what you want, but unless that SST map is not accurate or they are probably releasing that because its easier for the public to understand, because I'm tellin ya even the so called cooler waters based on that SST map can easily support a very intense tropical cyclone.



Its the same basis when a weatherman says on the news: "storms were not very stong because there wasn't much of a temperature contrast along the front", well Ive seen thee say that before, but they are saying that because its easier for the general public to understand, but it goes far deep then temp contrast along a front to create severe weather, there are an incredible amount of factors if you were to go into detail.

Same deal there with the storm, its a general public statement, but to a more experienced forecaster cooler water temps really isn't the reason.


Ive seen it before and I know how it goes.


Just like when weatherman will say well there are a lot of storms in the upper midwest because abundant moisture has moved in ahead of the strong low pressure system has moved in.

Ive seen that case before where the moisture really wan't that high, in fact if you were to bring the the same airmass into are area here in Florida the NWS would call it a dry airmass.

Its jus there were complicated weather features causing the numerous storms, not so much much moisture, but thats easier for the public to understand. And since the general public realy doesn't care about all the details and never will, all they need to do is make general statements like, "cooler water temps in its path" or "deep moisture moving into place" or "sharp temp contrast".

Hope you get my point.
922. DocBen
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:06 (GMT)
kyle - the problem with the waves right now (I think) is that they are at too low a latitude. Instead of coming over the islands into the Carib they go over land in South America.

I think ...
Member Since: 16.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
921. weathermanwannabe
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 02:01 (GMT)
The shear over the GOM right now would not allow much development as Dr. Masters suggested over the next week or so; but, once the shear relaxes, this area might explode going into mid-June...
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8298
920. JUSTCOASTING
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:51 (GMT)
Is there any chance of the blob sw of the Yucatan brewing into anything looks big right know
Member Since: 15.08.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
919. MZT
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:47 (GMT)
Barry's rains were helpful, but I was a little surprised how quickly the dry heat returned to Charlotte. There really isa drought going on.
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
917. Jedkins
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:40 (GMT)
the water its moving over is still easily warm enough to support a category 4 or 5 tropical cyclone and has no effect on any weakening, any weakening is from other factors such s dry air and dust over the deserts that could be sucked into its circulation as well as eye wallm replacement cycles.

Trust me, look at the potential intensity for water temps, you'd be suprised just how strong a storm even 85 degree waters can support. Under perfect conditions, 85 degrees can support up to a category 4 hurricane,possibly even stronger depending on its depth, and all the water it will be traversing over is around 90 or greater, at minimum upper 80's which can support a category 5. So water temps are no factor in weakening, in fact this very warm water will help to counter act the dry air inflow due to incredible moisture and energy obsorbtion that occurrs in a tropical cyclone over such warm waters.
915. 4Gaia
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:31 (GMT)
If it was I would move to Alaska!
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
914. RL3AO
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:29 (GMT)
I'm glad the GOM doesnt get as hot as the Arabian sea.
912. WPBHurricane05
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:27 (GMT)
I don't think that cooler water is an issue. Link
Member Since: 31.07.2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
911. PBG00
5. kesäkuuta 2007 klo 01:26 (GMT)
I feel for anyone in the path of a storm like that.
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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