A new name for the National Hurricane Center?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 18. toukokuuta 2007 klo 19:23 (GMT)

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Administrators at the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) are making moves to promote their "Corporate Identity" by renaming the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, according to an article published yesterday in the Miami Herald. The new organizations would be called the "NOAA Hurricane Center" and the "NOAA Weather Service". The proposed changes are being vigorously opposed by new NHC director Bill Proenza, who said, "what's happening is scary."

The issue at hand is money. Everyone has heard of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Weather Service (NWS), but the public is not that familiar with their parent organization, NOAA--part of the U.S. Department of Commerce. By taking over the name of two of the government's most visible, well performing, and trusted organizations, NOAA wants to position themselves to take credit for the fantastic job these organizations do. The result, they hope, will be increased funding for NOAA in the future, thanks to increased name brand recognition. "If NOAA achieves a strong presence in the eyes of the people who use its varied services, the agency will be more successful in budget matters," said Anson Franklin, NOAA's director of communications.

The problem with this is that there are no guarantees that increased funding for NOAA will result in a bump in funding for NHC or NWS. For example, NOAA has an annual budget of over $4 billion, and NHC's budget is just $6.3 million. With NHC losing its identity, its funding may become diluted by NOAA, and will have to fight harder for dollars. Another problem is that the public, who like and trust the NWS and NWS brands, may see the change as an attempt by NOAA bureaucrats to take unwarranted credit for what these organizations do. In addition, it will cost plenty to change the names of these organizations, which may be viewed as a waste of taxpayers' money.

Proenza also complained that NOAA is spending between $1.5 million and $4 million on a "bogus" 200-year NOAA anniversary celebration (NOAA was founded in 1970, although some of its component organizations are 200 years old). I do believe that NOAA has a name recognition problem, and that it needs to spend some public relations money to get their name more recognized by the public. Public relations campaigns are essential for any organization to succeed in today's world. However, I think NOAA is going about their public relations campaign the wrong way. The amount being spent on the 200-year anniversary celebration is excessive, given NOAA's stinginess in funding important hurricane research. Furthermore, NOAA should leave the names of the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service alone. Departments of NOAA should be named, recognized, and funded based on their individual missions and function, not based on those of their parent organization. NHC and NWS have worked hard to earn their name recognition, and it would be wrong for NOAA to change their names.

NOAA has made a web page available for the public to see the proposed changes to its web pages that would result from its reorganization. You can comment on the proposed changes until June 13.

Jeff Masters

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791. CycloneQld
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 14:13 (GMT)
TS Pierre, passing over Cape York in Queensland, has become the first tropical storm to make landfall on Australia during May since TS Ernie in 1989, and be only the second one to do so since accurate cyclone records began in the mid-1970s.

SSTs remain warm over Northern Australia despite being only a week out from moving into winter officially, does not bode well for later in the year when summer comes.
Link


Also Typhoon Yutu is breaking down under increasing shear as it approaches Iwo Jima.

Impressive (and concerning) for a Pacific storm to be a strong Category 4 in May whilst La Nina conditions are prevalent.

Yutu Dvorak: Link

Typhoon Yutu arose with the MJO shifting back into gear in phase 7, after stalling for some time previously. Phase 7 coincides with very favourable cyclogenisis conditions in the Western Pacific during the austral winter.

However the MJO will cross over into Phase 8 over the next few days will cause the Atlantic ITCZ to fire up and make things interesting for you guys up there.

Current MJO situation: Link



Additionally concerning the MJO, it can be expected that it will shift into Phase 1 in the days around June 1st.

Phase 1 conditions tend to give rise to above average tropical storm development in the Nth Atlantic, particularly the Caribbean and GOM. (Indeed during 2005 the MJO spent an unusual amount of time in this phase and we all are aware of what happened then).

All those in the Panhandle should get prepared, conditions are lining up for a lot of potential during the first week of June.

790. seminolesfan
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 14:10 (GMT)
new blog!!!
Member Since: 14.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2106
789. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Pensacola~ Have a family friend in Pensacola. When Frances was coming here, he begged us to get out. (We tried & couldn't). So, when Ivan was coming for Pensacola we begged him to get out. He didn't. It scared him badly, but he was lucky. He told us some awful stories. And he said the totality of the disaster was kinda downplayed in the media. He was stuck somewhere for a while cause a main bridge washed out, i guess.
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
788. PensacolaDoug
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Airman,
I remember thinking back in 1979, that Grande Lagoon had it bad from Frederick, then came IVAN, no comparison. That whole stretch of beach on the south side of Gulf Beach Hwy from Warrington west looked like a warzone after Ivan with Grand Lagoon being ground zero. Unreal.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
787. heavyweatherwatcher
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Weatherbrat...
I went to the WEAR ABC website...

WEAR Website info...
Hurricane Predictions For This Season
The Hurricane Research Team that *accurately predicted last year's storm season, is out with this year's projections....
Researchers at North Carolina State University say we will have eight to nine hurricanes, four or five of those major.
The team also estimates there is a 56 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast....and a ten percent a major hurricane will strike the Southeast Coast.

In 2006, the team at N-C State predicted one or two hurricanes would strike the east coast....and five or six hurricanes would form in the Atlantic Ocean.
Five hurricanes formed and none made landfall.

Most likely you heard someone repeating Joe Bastardi's of ACCUWEATHER's forecast of 13 - 14 storms and Joe Bastardi goes on to predict that 6 or 7 huricanes will make landfall. Joe is much better at winter events, you can get at least the same accuracy as Bastardi on this blog!
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
784. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Thanks WEATHERBRAT they're almost 3 now & I have another 1 almost 6. All girls! The funny thing was (& it really isn't funny) is the ideas that you think of to do in those situations. Maybe it was lack of sleep or whatever (lol) but after Frances when Jeanne rolled through, my plan was set! I have 2 small dogs that have a kennel. So, when they kept saying tornadoes were coming specifically in my little area, my twins went in the dog kennel that had a rope tied around it attached to me & my husband held my 3 yr old. Everyone thought I was a nut. But with 2 prs of arms & 3 kids....
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
783. sails1
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Does anyone notice the area of distubed weather in the very southern Caribean? Looks like wind sheer, from the west is starting to weaken and more t-strms are starting to pop. The movement is slightly north? What are your thoughts on the developing weather system?
Member Since: 26.05.2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
782. hurricane2007
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Morning all!
781. TheCaneWhisperer
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:42 (GMT)
I was thinking 7 landfalls this year Weatherbrat! 9 is possible if the current patterns hold this year! Purely my amature opinion!
780. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:41 (GMT)
Well thats a very nice thing to say watchin. I try to share the experience.The people here are very resilent. And progress is seen lil by little.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
779. weatherbrat
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Watchin....

Six week old twins!?!...Bless you!
778. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Thanks Nash! Just seemed to me like it was totally unexpected. Went to bed thinking I was in the clear. Woke up a few hours later (had 6wk old twins) to find out that she was headed back.
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
777. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:30 (GMT)
I've been lurking for years so, I have read alot about your story & love the links you share. I know I don't know you, but feel kinda like I do since I've been reading about you for a couple years. Just like lots of other folks on here. I worry bout y'all in season. Especially those like you. In good spirits, but none the less still reeling& you're still in the danger zone if a storm heads your way.
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
776. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Jeanne looped because of a big blocking high that was parked right over her, thus not allowing her to move any further to the north. This also made the steering currents extremely weak.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
775. weatherbrat
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:24 (GMT)
PensacolaDoug or anyone else......
I'm near Pensacola, FL. This morning on our local news station WEAR3 they talked about nine (9) hurricanes predicted to hit the U.S. this season. Yes they said NINE!! This is the first I have heard of this prediction. Has anyone else heard this and to what basis are using to make this kind of statement? If this is true, and after riding out through Ivan, I'm going Hurricane shopping ASAP!!
774. spiceymonster
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:23 (GMT)
hmm the quicksat has nothing on the little wave off the africa coast :(
Member Since: 10.02.2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
773. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:21 (GMT)
I was displaced to 6 miles west of the 17th St Canal..near the western Outfall canal..which bowed but held. Still in Trailer..Kids doing fine. We hanging tough.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
772. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Patrap~ I know to say the least, you were displaced by Katrina, but are you still in that same general area?
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
771. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:17 (GMT)
National Hurricane Center..Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
770. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Message from the NHC Director,Bill Proenza
Welcome to your National Weather Service (NWS) National Hurricane Center (NHC). Our primary goal is to provide timely and accurate forecast warnings to protect life.

Currently, 50 percent of the US population lives within 50 miles of the coast and the latest DOC/Census figures indicate the coastal population growth is even higher than projected. This lends directly to the importance of the NHC preparedness and warning activities.

Upon landfall of a tropical cyclone, the forecast and warning responsibility is led by the National Hurricane Center on a large scale and picked up by the National Weather Service local Forecast Offices on the local scale. The history of our Nation's southern and eastern coasts including our Caribbean Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have shown to be the most active tropical cyclone landfall areas in the world. All National Weather Services' forecasts and warnings are disseminated in collaboration with the local and state emergency management communities, government officials and first responders, the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, and the media.

We ask our fellow Americans, neighbors and visitors to join us in a partnership in preparing ourselves and families for tropical cyclones before they threaten our communities. We encourage you to browse our web site and learn more about our products and to get tips on what you can do to be prepared. We also have several presentations available for download. Please feel free to contact us with any comments, questions or suggestions. Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
769. spiceymonster
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Has anyone done the hurricane futures thing on Sj's webpage.
Member Since: 10.02.2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
768. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:13 (GMT)
I'm with you on that Nash! I have that feeling of pure dread! At least by now the majority of Floridians & others scathed know now not to blow the warnings off. Should be fun though, on the flip side, to watch these storms form & trannsform. (Wishing no harm to anyone of course) Does anyone remember what happened w/ Jeanne in 04. Why she looped back around?
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
767. gryhndlvr
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:11 (GMT)
I lived in Ocala during Frances and even as far inland as that we had 80K damage to our home. It was a tornado associated with Frances that got us - took down 5 HUGE water oaks in our yard. Very scary - and now I'm on the east coast in Port St Lucie - YIKES
766. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Ok guys. Gotta run for a few and take care of a nurses laptop. Be back in a bit.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
765. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Yep. I am as ready as I am going to be. Now, it's just a matter of when.....

Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
764. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Monday is among us nash28. LAst week to fully prepare for H season.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
763. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Good morning Pat.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
762. Patrap
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:01 (GMT)
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125747
761. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Yeah. I do believe we will have much to discuss/track once the season gets cookin'. Unfortunately, I do not think we will dodge the bullet this year.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
760. airman45
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 13:00 (GMT)
PensacolaDoug,

I am a former resident of Pensacola and my mother and various aunts and uncles still live there. My mother lives in Myrtle Grove on high ground so only had srtuctural damage. However two uncles and a cousin live on Grande Lagoon, and you know what happened there. Their houses were built 13 feet up on stilts, higher than all around them (they are right on the water). Their three houses were the only ones standing after the storm, and two dead bodies were found near their houses. It still took 8 months for them to be able to move back in. I had always thought of living near the water, but not anymore.
Member Since: 2.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3504
759. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Thanks! I know we can never be sure of how many etc. But i just wanted to make sure I was right about the 04 pattern being similar. Gives us something to look forward to. (being sarcastic lol)
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
758. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:54 (GMT)
There is no way to say with any certainty how severe or otherwise our season in FL is going to be. The only thing I can say is that the jet pattern is opposite of last year and the flow is similar to the 2004 season.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
757. TheCaneWhisperer
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:52 (GMT)
WAVE,copyright 2007 EUMETSAT!
Visible in the upper right of the image, seems to be loosing it's punch as it traditionally would this time of year in that area. Hopefully the wave can hold together and fuel some good rains further west.
756. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:52 (GMT)
Morning SJ!

Great site! Have been using it since last week. Thanks for adding the learning page. Im sure lots of folks will find it helpful =)
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
755. watchinwxnwpb
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:46 (GMT)
Nash~ It appears to me that everything seems to be starting to set up like it was in 2004/5. Does this mean we are likely to see a repeat or striking similarity. (as for as the likelyhood for 3 or 4 storms making landfall in Fl)
Member Since: 15.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 421
754. PensacolaDoug
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:41 (GMT)
I live on the west side of Pensacola right next to Bayou Grande across from Pen NAS.
I used to get excited by hurricanes, even enjoyed the ones that hit or came near. ERIN rolled right over us as a CAT1 knocked down a bunch or trees and limbs but didn't bring much surge. OPAL 2 months later passed about 30 miles east of us. It did bring surge, but the west side of the storms seemed to be weakening as it made landfall and wasn't as bad as ERIN in my neighborhood. GEORGES passed about 90 miles west of us and brought an extended period of rain and wind but not that much real damage. So when IVAN threatened, I took the usual preperations but didn't get too worried.
I thought I'd seen a hurricane before....
IVAN redefined my definition of a hurricane. It was like nothing I had ever experienced before. The storm surge was 11 feet. My home sits 13 feet above the bayou about 1 1/2 miles from the gulf as the crow flies, water got into most of my neighbors homes but through shear luck and geography mine sits a little higher. It was a wild and scary night. When the the sun came up, I was awestruck by the magnitude of the destruction along the waterfront in and around my home. I lost 13 pine trees in my yard, fortunately only one scored on my garage the rest landed on my fence or fell harmlessly across the road and into my neighbors yards. My home is not waterfront but I do have a waterview. My neighbors with waterfront all had their homes destroyed. Lots of them still haven't been rebuilt. I guess the bottom line is this...I'll never put myself and family at risk again by riding out a storm so close to the coast.

Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
753. TheCaneWhisperer
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:40 (GMT)
I agree there nash! Nasty shear down there! There is a little pocket of favorable shear but, that's it. Any movement N would destroy it.
752. nash28
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:35 (GMT)
Good morning all. Shear is still very high throughout most of the Carribbean and the entire GOM. The remainder of May looks to be quiet, as it should be.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
751. TheCaneWhisperer
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:33 (GMT)
Good morning all!

Notice the NHC says FIRST wave of 2007! Not second or third, there was some discrepancies a couple of weeks ago on this subject, hope this clears it up!
750. HurricaneGeek
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:30 (GMT)
Okay so this is may 21......still 10 days before the hurricane season STARTS and off of Africa we are starting to get waves. I thought waves started in like July and by sept or aug , the peak of the season, they formed so if we keep this pace, then by like late June the hurricanes will come off like they should... but only in sept
So that means what? for theREAL PEAK of hurricane season.???
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
749. tampaskywatcher
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:22 (GMT)
I agree keywest -- although that is really far south i thought -- could be very wrong -- just seemed that way
748. spiceymonster
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:22 (GMT)
keywest does all that mean we MIGHT have something out there
Member Since: 10.02.2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
747. keywestdingding
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:17 (GMT)
looks like its really starting early of the african coast!
Member Since: 6.03.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
746. keywestdingding
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:17 (GMT)

TROPICAL WAVE...THE FIRST TRACKED ON OUR SFC MAP IN 2007...IS
LOCATED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 10N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AROUND 06Z ON SAT
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SFC DATA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE
PLACEMENT WAS BASED ON LOW TO MID LEVEL CURVATURE SEEN ON NIGHT
CHANNEL VIS IMAGES WHICH ALSO SEEMED TO MESH WELL WITH A SHIP
AND BUOY REPORT SURROUNDING THE FEATURE. THE BUOY...CALL SIGN
31006...HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HELPFUL SHOWING THE WIND VEER MORE
TOWARD THE E POSSIBLY INDICATING THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING'S VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE
AXIS COULD BE FURTHER W BASED ON THE SHAPE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...SO THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE WAVE MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO 20 KT. THIS WEAK FEATURE IS LOW-LATITUDE AND IT'S MAIN
FUNCTION IS PERTURBING THE ITCZ SLIGHTLY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
Member Since: 6.03.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 88
745. tampaskywatcher
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:16 (GMT)
Still very early -- models showing more southern track then yesterday though over the straits of florida or cuba --
744. StormJunkie
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:13 (GMT)
Morning y'all. Still looks like the models are still calling for fairly high shear in most areas for the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see what happens when it starts relaxing.

Added a learning page to the website this weekend. Stop by and check it out. Some great info.

Back to work. See y'all later ☺
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
743. HurricaneGeek
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:06 (GMT)
Hey so a FL storm or not or still too early to tell?
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
742. tampaskywatcher
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 12:00 (GMT)
Good morning canegeek
741. HurricaneGeek
21. toukokuuta 2007 klo 11:59 (GMT)
Good morning Everybody
Member Since: 10.05.2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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