Hurricane-like Nor'easter may form Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:34 (GMT)

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A major spring Nor'easter with the capability of causing damage equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane may develop Sunday off the U.S. East Coast. A storm system currently crossing the Pacific coast near British Columbia is expected to dive southeastward across the U.S., possibly triggering a significant severe weather outbreak over Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas on Friday. The storm will emerge into the Atlantic on Sunday near the Virginia Coast and rapidly intensify. By Monday morning, the GFS model is forecasting a 975 mb low pressure system just off the New Jersey coast, with 50-60 mph easterly winds over Long Island Sound and the waters just south of Long Island. The 00Z UKMET model forecasts an even more intense system, similar in strength to a Category 1 hurricane. Other reliable models are less gung-ho. The European model has the storm bottoming out at a pressure of 985 mb, and the NOGAPS model, 982 mb. However, of great concern is the fact that most of the models forecast a very slow moving system that will weaken only gradually, battering the coast for at least three days. This will allow a long period of time for the tropical-storm force winds over the water to pile up high storm surges in Long Island Sound and along the entire Northeast coast from New Jersey to Maine. Combine this with the arrival of one of the highest tides of the year Monday night--the Spring Tide, which occurs at the time of the new moon--and we have the potential for a very serious flooding event. If the worst case scenarios of the models come true, the Tax Day Storm of 2007 could cause extensive moderate to severe coastal flooding, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. The areas at highest risk appear to be New Jersey, New York (especially New York City), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Heavy snow is not expected along the coast, but heavy rains may cause flooding problems. As usual, there is considerable uncertainty about the exact track and intensity of the storm, and we'll have a better idea Friday what might be in store for New England. However, I believe there is a greater than 50% chance that this Nor'easter will be strong enough to cause significant storm surge flooding along the New England coast. Damages of at least $100 million are likely.


Figure 1. Forecast from the GFS model for 2am EDT Monday April 16, showing a major Nor'easter off the coast of New England.

My lecture in the Tampa Bay area--location change
I'll be giving a public lecture on Friday, April 13, at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Florida. The title of the talk will be, "A Preview of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season--and the Story of a Flight into Hurricane Hugo." The room for the lecture has been changed to Miller Hall (it was Fox Hall). The details:

Friday April 13, 4:00 to 5:00 p.m.
Miller Hall
Eckerd College
4200 54th Avenue S
St. Petersburg, FL 33711
Event information: http://www.eckerd.edu/events

Here's a map of where Eckerd College is, and a map of campus. I hope to see some of you there! I'll have time after the talk to chat. You can email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have comments about my appearance.

Tune into the East Coast Winter Weather blog Friday for an update on the 2007 Tax Day Storm. I won't be writing a blog on the storm Friday, but one of the other wunderground meteorologists will. I'll blog on the storm Saturday and/or Sunday if it appears to be a major threat.

Jeff Masters

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812. weathersp
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 18:11 (GMT)
Pressure is 990.6mb now here just south of baltimore and still falling...
Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
811. pottery
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 18:02 (GMT)
K8Ecane. Thanks for the responses to the earlier question. Tell lil Buddy, that lightening is natures way of creating fertilizer in the sky and in the ground. Fixes nitrogen so the plants get healthier. Here, in Trinidad the indiginious people ( Amerindians ) used to set up offerings where lightening touched down. Its good stuff. Unless you are outside ! Have a good one......
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
810. 1900hurricane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:39 (GMT)
I have recently updated my blog with the latest information on the potental noreaster. Please check it out.

1900hurricane's Wunderblog
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11569
809. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:36 (GMT)
not a nic day in Boston it olny 39 with a vary cold rain and winds at 18 mph
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
808. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:34 (GMT)
ok
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
807. hurricane23
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Posted By: Tazmanian at 3:21 PM GMT on April 15, 2007.

well we are not going to see any thing like we saw in 2006 you cant have that evere year sorry.

Taz at this time its unknown what kind of steering pattern will be in place this season an all we can do is speculate on what might happen.Numbers are not important to me as it only takes one to ruin lives as we saw back in 92.

In 2 months we should have a much better idea on how the meat of the season might set-up.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
806. StormJunkie
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:29 (GMT)
Think I will take a ride out to the beach later and see ho they are fairing...I am sure y'alls will get hammered to K8...We just finished replenishing last year, and you can already notice the new errosion patterns. This will not help...

Thanks K8 :)
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
805. K8eCane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:29 (GMT)
i'm going to stormjunkie.com now
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
804. StormJunkie
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:27 (GMT)
STL, I geuss I am just used to them overestimating them with tropical systems that pass near by...

K8, you may get one last shot with these two lines that are moving through this area now...
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
803. piercello
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:26 (GMT)


attempting to close the bold.

Beautiful day for a 3:00 orchestra concert on Cape Cod.
802. K8eCane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:25 (GMT)
it's windy here sj
rain has ended
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
800. StormJunkie
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:22 (GMT)
I would think so K8E...Good to see you.
I think once the back side of the system starts getting closer you will see your winds go up, although I am suprised it is not already pretty windy there..
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
799. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:21 (GMT)
well we are not going to see any thing like we saw in 2006 you cant have that evere year sorry
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
798. hurricane23
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:19 (GMT)
Good afternoon...

Things will be quite interesting across miami dade and broward counties this afternoon with this strong line making its way towards the area.Hopefully eveyone will stay safe out there and moniter the situation.

As far as the 07 hurricane season concerns its to early to speculate on which areas might see action.I like to wait till mid july or early august to really get a feel for how the pattern will set-up for the heart of the season.A nina continues to look likely which will lead to a more favorable enviroment for developemnt.Hopefully a mean trof will setup of the eastcaost and will drive everything out to sea as we saw in 2006.Adrian
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
797. K8eCane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:16 (GMT)
hey SJ
will that affect us in wilmington?
Member Since: 26.04.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3041
796. StormJunkie
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:12 (GMT)
Morning y'all. Hope all are staying safe.

Charleston Int'l Airport just reported a gust of 49mph...No storms were associated with that either. Pretty steep when we were only expecting 35 max...
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
795. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:10 (GMT)
STL has this been moveing N?

The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 7n12w 3n20w 2n30w 1n40w eq50w.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm S of the axis
between 21w-26w. Scattered moderate to strong is from the eq-4n
between 6w-10w
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
793. TheCaneWhisperer
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:05 (GMT)
Just a little food for thought Snofire. You can research the subject on the net, it is quite interesting.

Gotta Run! Gonna get nasty here in South Florida today, hope all are safe!
792. TheCaneWhisperer
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 15:02 (GMT)
In my opinion Snofire! During a La Nina event, evaporation transfer across central america is much less due to less shear. Less evaporation transfer means lower salinity concentrations (this is a natural cycle, nothing to be alarmed about)in the gulf stream. Since this evaporation process across Central America is what supply's the North Atlantic with it's salty water, it could slow the circulation due to less salinity difference from upper and lower levels. I also think this process is why we are seeing the warm waters in the Western Carribbian. Less evaporation transfer would mean higher SST's in the West Carrb (Which feed the gulf stream so guess where the water will go). Notice I said "During a La Nina Event", could this be growing evidence that we are going to have a La Nina on our hands soon, I personally think so but, we will have to see what the pros say.
791. 1900hurricane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:52 (GMT)
The GFS is now forcasting this storm to bomb out below 976 mbs while very close to NYC. I still can't believe that I was there a week ago.

Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11569
790. 1900hurricane
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:49 (GMT)
The grand banks and Labrador Current are the only below average places I see in the N Atlantic.
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11569
787. primez
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:44 (GMT)
It makes extremely sharp turns over the North American continent multiple times. It goes straight south, then a little east, then straight north, then a little east, and then back again. It almost looks like a sine or cosine graph.
Member Since: 18.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
786. Snowfire
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Is it my imagination, or does this image show a strong and possibly intensifying La Nia episode? Also, the Gulf stream seems to be consistently south of track; one wonders if this could be a sign of thermohaline slowing.....
Member Since: 29.06.2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 308
785. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:38 (GMT)
nevere mine
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
784. CapeWeather06
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:35 (GMT)
What do you mean the jet stream like this before, i would like to know what you mean by this?
783. CapeWeather06
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:33 (GMT)
What do you mean the jet stream like this before?
782. primez
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:28 (GMT)
I don't think i've ever seen the jet stream like this before.
Member Since: 18.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
781. Dakster
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:20 (GMT)
For the weather nive, what's diabetic heating in the previous posts? I can only guess heating of the atmosphere in the day by the sun?

(either that or the storm needs insulin?)

Getting windy, but still sunny in good ole Miami along the coast.
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9765
780. weathergeek5
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:17 (GMT)
wow the pressure is really dropping where u are SP. Here it has remained steady over the last half hour or so
Member Since: 25.12.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1743
779. weathersp
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:15 (GMT)
Severna Park,MD 10:00AM

Light Rain
Winds NNE at 8mph
Pressure 996.6mb or 29.43in and Falling Rapidly
Storm Total: 1.66"

Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
778. weathergeek5
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:03 (GMT)
10:00 am update

Newark DE
Heavy Rain
Winds: NE 20mph busting to 27mph
Barometric Pressure Now 29.57 and falling
Member Since: 25.12.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1743
777. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:00 (GMT)
what map Taz?
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
776. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:55 (GMT)
lol same time
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
775. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:55 (GMT)
StoryOfTheCane i dont go by that map no one dos
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
774. weathersp
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Well its comeing its 997mb down here.. oha and by the way my weather station just changed from "falling" to "Falling Rapidly"
Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
773. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Beat you to it Taz,LOL.
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
772. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:54 (GMT)
You know I don't like to copy and paste...but that's important information,and it's basically what I'm thinking will happen anyway.I'm kind of surprised they put so much hail in the forecast,though.Mid levels are pretty warm.
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
771. Tazmanian
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
lol

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 500
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS WITHIN THE LINE...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PARTS OF SOUTH FL WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING
TODAY...WHICH MAY OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MAINTAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114072
770. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
In any case...things are getting serious:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FL PENINSULA AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151331Z - 151430Z

WW NECESSARY ACROSS LARGE PORTION FL PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF LINE OF
STG-SVR TSTMS NOW CROSSING W-CENTRAL COAST AND N FL.

THROUGH REMAINDER FORENOON HOURS...EXPECT PRE-STORM SFC
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST DIABATIC HEATING...COMBINED WITH SFC DEW
POINTS LOW 70S F...TO OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND YIELD
MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER BULK OF SRN/ERN PENINSULA. LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS MAY SHRINK SLIGHTLY AS SFC WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO NEWD
SHIFTING OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING ACROSS VA/CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...STRENGTHENING OF GRADIENT WINDS
ALOFT AND THEIR WLY COMPONENT SHOULD MAINTAIN/ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...KEEPING OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SVR. EVEN THOUGH
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN QUASI-LINEAR...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND/OR CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS
WILL POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND.
OCCASIONALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY DIMINISH SWD
WITH TIME OVER KEYS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 500
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS WITHIN THE LINE...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PARTS OF SOUTH FL WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING
TODAY...WHICH MAY OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MAINTAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HART


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 500
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ORLANDO FLORIDA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUED RISK OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS WITHIN THE LINE...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. PARTS OF SOUTH FL WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE HEATING
TODAY...WHICH MAY OFFSET WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MAINTAIN
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HART


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 151341
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

TORNADO WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-061-069-071-085-086-087-
093-095-097-099-105-111-115-117-127-152100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.070415T1345Z-070415T2100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH POLK SARASOTA
SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE VOLUSIA


AMZ550-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-856-152100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.070415T1345Z-070415T2100Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET FL OUT 20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

BISCAYNE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 148 TORNADO FL CW 151345Z - 152100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NNW ORL/ORLANDO FL/ - 50SW MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /28WSW OMN - 43SW MIA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

LAT...LON 29078041 25287973 25288197 29078273

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 148 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.



WWUS40 KWNS 151344
WWP8

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

WT 0148
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU8.

$$


Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
769. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:51 (GMT)
It is irrelevent.
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
768. weatherboykris
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Air rpessure cannot directly be used to forecast severe weather.
Member Since: 9.12.2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
766. PerfectNoreaster07
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:43 (GMT)
The air pressure here is an unbelievably high 1016mb or 30.02in. Where's the storm?
763. SteveDa1
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Light rain here as well just south of Montreal, Canada.
Member Since: 17.10.2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
762. weathersp
15. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Severna Park,MD
9:00 AM

Moderate to Light Rain
Temperature: 44.9F
Pressure: 997.5mb or 29.46in and falling last hour it was 1000.0mb or 29.53.
Winds: NNE at 5 gusting to 12.
Rain Storm Total: 1.62"

Member Since: 14.01.2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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