Severe weather moves into the Mississippi Valley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 31. maaliskuuta 2007 klo 16:59 (GMT)

Share this Blog
3
+

Severe weather continues today across the Plains, where flooding has been the main problem in the past 24 hours. Portions of Texas received up to seven inches of rain in the past day (Figure 1), causing closure of many roads. Seven tornadoes touched down in Texas yesterday, and one near Hallettsville injured three people. Four twisters touched down Thursday, and as many as 70 on Wednesday. The tornado outbreak killed four people on Wednesday. The strongest storm surveyed so far was an EF3 tornado that hit Holly, Colorado, killing one person and injuring eleven. The tornado was unusual in that it did not show up on radar until a few minutes after it touched down, and moved from east to west. Holly was not not under a watch, no warnings were issued, and the town sirens did not go off. Our tools and knowledge are still not good enough to always detect these storms before they touch down, unfortunately. The heavy rains these storms have brought--and the up to six feet of snow in the mountains of Wyoming--should help drought conditions relax in the Plains, though.

Expect the severe weather action to shift to the Mississippi Valley today and Alabama tomorrow. However, the storm system is gradually losing its punch, and we may not see any more tornadoes by Sunday out of the system.


Figure 1. Total storm precipitation estimated by radar for the Dallas/Fort Worth region for the period March 29 - March 31.

Jeff Masters

Hail Storm (txcoffeecup)
Hail Storm on March 30, 2007. Camp Wood, Texas
Hail Storm
()
Holly Colorado tornado (Rosamane)
A F4 tornado (winds up to 199 mph) struck Holly, CO on Wednesday, March 28, with only minutes notice. A lot of clean-up has already been done. In this photo, the floor of another home that was completely destroyed ended up in this home. Six homes were completedly destroyed, and at least 65 more were severely damaged, many more sustained some sort of damage. Several farms were also severly damaged or destroyed. A 29 year old mother of two was killed, and 11 more were injured seriously enough to be taken to the hospital.
Holly Colorado tornado

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 104 - 54

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

104. Thunderstorm2
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Yep...This site is Damn popular at that time
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
103. MisterPerfect
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:30 (GMT)
It gets exciting when the hurricane hunters start flying out to the target zones. Traffic on WU is at peak during those sorties.
Member Since: 1.11.2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20122
102. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:26 (GMT)
I tend to stay on this one because I like Dr. Masters analysis and there are a great group of knowledgable regulars here..........I've learned a lot over here.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
101. Thunderstorm2
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:21 (GMT)
I'll be looking forward looking around the blogs during Hurricane Season to see what people have. What about you Weathermanwannabe...will you be looking forward to looking around the blogs during H Season.
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
100. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Time will tell but the "break" that she gave us last year was badly needed after the previous season....................You never know...
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
99. Thunderstorm2
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:12 (GMT)
If we're lucky she won't be in a bad mood and not throw several Major Hurricanes at the US.
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
98. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:09 (GMT)
I agree; we tend to get excited around here about active seasons, but, the human toll is just too great....We should always hope for the least number of storms, but, Mother Nature doesn't always cooperate!
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
97. cajunkid
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 14:08 (GMT)
when are they going to fix all the buoys in the gulf???? arrrrg
Member Since: 10.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1276
96. Thunderstorm2
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Hopefully not a too active season.

I'm hoping for 20-22 named storms.
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
95. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Thanks Cane.....BTW, welcome back to all the regulars and it looks like it will be a very active season this year with the mild Winter and La Nina starting to develop....Looking forward to some great, and orderly, discussions in the next few months........
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
93. Thunderstorm2
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:53 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
92. franck
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:51 (GMT)
As long as upper level winds behave as they have for the last 18 months, shouldn't be any major storms forming in Gulf or coastal Atlantic.
Member Since: 30.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
91. TheCaneWhisperer
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:46 (GMT)
Weathermanwannabe! Here is the discussion from the NHC!

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION PUSHING E FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WRN GULF
FROM 22N-26N W OF 94W. BOTH LOW LEVEL REFLECTIVITY AND STORM
RELATIVE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOW SOME MESO
CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE TROUGHING
EXTENDING S THROUGH BAJA...ALONG WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW.
UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION IS SPREADING E OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE DOMINATING W TO WSW UPPER FLOW.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE
WRN PORTION OF AN ATLC SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND 5-15 KT
RETURN FLOW DOMINATING. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN INTO WED IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW AND THE MID TO UPPER TROUGHING W
OF THE AREA.


90. Skyepony (Mod)
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:42 (GMT)
biff~ it was a backdoor cold front. The last one didn't bring us anything but clouds, so this one got down played. MBL NWS had a slight chance for days before & played it up more the day before.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
89. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Cloudlover; pursuant to some discussion yesterday from the WC severe weather expert, April and May are the peak months for tornado activity...........Also, with La Nina conditions on the way, this type of activity may be "enhanced" in the coming months..
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
88. cloudlover
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 12:59 (GMT)
With the hail and tornado season having an active March....should we anticipate more of the same for April-May? Any forecast models that someone can share...I have some, but they don't extend out past 1 week.
87. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 12:54 (GMT)
8
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
86. weathermanwannabe
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 12:33 (GMT)
What is that big blob coming off of Mexico, just south of Texas, into the Gulf?..........Since it's too early for the visible satellite, I can't tell; Is it just a strong cell of thunderstorms?
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8265
85. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 12:17 (GMT)
The planet dont read NWS forecast..
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
84. biff4ugo
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 12:14 (GMT)
The weather forcast for North and Central Florida on Friday was way outa wack too. The forcast was for partly cloudy and no frontal system but stratus clouds blanketed the area and we had drizzle all day. What is up with that??? Rain wasn't forcast till Sunday, which of course was dry and sunny as a sunflower.
Member Since: 28.12.2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1495
81. Fshhead
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 08:29 (GMT)
tsunami hit the Solomon islands. Quakes were 8.0 & 6.7 magnitude.....
Link
Member Since: 19.11.2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
80. DocBen
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 03:45 (GMT)
A comment about the large number of big storms - Madagascar and Australia this winter (their summer); Phillipines last summer; the amazing wandering Ioke; and of course the Atlantic in 2005. A few of these would be catagory 6 if there were such a thing. More energy to work with would be expected to result in more energy expended in storms. Just look at water temperatures across the globe.

Another interesting observation: Look how quickly we cycled ENSO. La Nina 2005, El Nino 2006, and La Nina again today. These things used to be a multi-year cycle.
Member Since: 16.05.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
79. Skyepony (Mod)
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 03:34 (GMT)
I found what I was refuring too. It was during Florence. From one of Dr Master's blogs...

Florence battles dry air; Hurricane Hunters investigate new disturbance
Posted By: JeffMasters at 11:22 PM GMT on September 06, 2006
Florence continues to struggle with wind shear today, and is managing just a slow intensification. Compounding Florence's troubles is the presence of some dry air at mid levels, as revealed this afternoon in the appearance of arc clouds at the surface. Dr. Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division has posted a blog this evening showing some examples of these arc clouds. What happens is that a ribbon of dry air at mid levels gets sucked into a thunderstorm inside of Florence, which then creates a strong downdraft that leaves its mark at the surface as an arc cloud that expands out in a semicircle.


They're arc clouds...the line that followed about the ribbon of dry air stuck.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
78. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 03:26 (GMT)
New invest up 98P.

This one is in the S Pacific, in the Fiji area. Doesn't look like much so far. . .

But that is now three of the 7 watch areas involved.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
77. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 03:08 (GMT)
G'nite all!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
76. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 02:57 (GMT)
Thanks, Cal - that sounds a bit easier.

I have to agree with you that the blog search tool is not the easiest to use. . . .

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
75. ajcamsmom
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 02:51 (GMT)
OK...now it worked...for anyone that is interested that did not get it before, it is @ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.atl.indices
I thought March would be up today, but, I guess I was just wishing
74. ajcamsmom
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 02:31 (GMT)
A while back someone had posted a link that gave the monthly water temps in the Gulf of Mexico over the past few years...I copied it to my favorites and just tried to pull it up and can't...Could someone please post the link again for me...I sure would appreciate it.
Thanks, Lisa
73. LowerCal
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 02:00 (GMT)
Thanks for the interesting links Pat.
Member Since: 26.07.2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9130
72. LowerCal
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:59 (GMT)
Baha, clarification -

I Googled "fanning cirrus" with "wunderground" to get that comment page.
Member Since: 26.07.2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9130
71. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:35 (GMT)
Taz,

u are adding extra bumps and making it extra bumpy.

I hope u noticed that Kong-Rey is now forecast to pass almost directly over Saigon. Since it on the Mariana Trench, they shouldn'd have much of a storm surge, am I correct?

And any rain yr way so far?
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
70. Tazmanian
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:28 (GMT)
bumpy
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114043
69. Tazmanian
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:20 (GMT)
bumpy
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114043
68. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:16 (GMT)
Catarina ,March 2004..One last linkie..Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
67. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:14 (GMT)
If Jaya does strike, that will make 6 systems in 4 months, or a hurricane every three weeks on average. 2004 was bad for FL, But this has got to be worse.

The question I'd like to pose: is this increased activity the continuation of the trend that began in the ATL in 2005, or is it an new trend of heightened activity that will continue throughought 2007?

Even Australia has had a fair amount of systems so far this season.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
66. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:14 (GMT)
Another link that may help...Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
65. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:12 (GMT)
Link to below article Lowercal..a common thread maybe. Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
64. Patrap
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:10 (GMT)

AMS Journals Online
AMS Home Journals Home Journal Archive Subscribe For Authors Help Advanced Search
Search Article Text
AMS Online Journals Access Control

Volume 60, Issue 7 (April 2003)
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Article: pp. 873891 | Abstract | PDF (4.20M)
Midlatitude Cirrus Clouds Derived from Hurricane Nora: A Case Study with Implications for Ice Crystal Nucleation and Shape

Kenneth Sassena, W. Patrick Arnottb, David O'C. Starrc, Gerald G. Maced, Zhien Wange, and Michael R. Poellotf

a. Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska
b. Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada
c. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
d. Department of Meteorology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah
e. University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, Maryland
f. Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, North Dakota
ABSTRACT

Hurricane Nora traveled up the Baja Peninsula coast in the unusually warm El Nio waters of September 1997 until rapidly decaying as it approached southern California on 24 September. The anvil cirrus blowoff from the final surge of tropical convection became embedded in subtropical flow that advected the cirrus across the western United States, where it was studied from the Facility for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (FARS) in Salt Lake City, Utah, on 25 September. A day later, the cirrus shield remnants were redirected southward by midlatitude circulations into the southern Great Plains, providing a case study opportunity for the research aircraft and ground-based remote sensors assembled at the Clouds and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in northern Oklahoma. Using these comprehensive resources and new remote sensing cloud retrieval algorithms, the microphysical and radiative cloud properties of this unusual cirrus event are uniquely characterized.

Importantly, at both the FARS and CART sites the cirrus generated spectacular halos and arcs, which acted as a tracer for the hurricane cirrus, despite the limited lifetimes of individual ice crystals. Lidar depolarization data indicate widespread regions of uniform ice plate orientations, and in situ particle replicator data show a preponderance of pristine, solid hexagonal plates and columns. It is suggested that these unusual aspects are the result of the mode of cirrus particle nucleation, presumably involving the lofting of sea salt nuclei in strong thunderstorm updrafts into the upper troposphere. This created a reservoir of haze particles that continued to produce halide-salt-contaminated ice crystals during the extended period of cirrus cloud maintenance. The inference that marine microbiota are embedded in the replicas of some ice crystals collected over the CART site points to the longevity of marine effects. Various nucleation scenarios proposed for cirrus clouds based on this and other studies, and the implications for understanding cirrus radiative properties on a global scale, are discussed.

Manuscript received March 18, 2002, in final form August 27, 2002

DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)0602.0.CO;2
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
63. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:09 (GMT)
Speaking of Madagascar, Jaya seems to be making a beeline for almost the same landfall point as Indlala. Only good points so far are 1) smaller size 2)faster forward movement, meaning hopefully less time to shed torrents of rain over land and 3) currently the bulk of the heaviest rain seems to be on the north side of the system, meaning hopefully most of the area previously badly affected by Indlala will escape the worst effects of this one.

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
62. LowerCal
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:05 (GMT)
Started with the blog search trying different words with "cirrus". Finally got that comment with "cirrus" and "outflow" I think. Then I used "fanning cirrus" with "wunderground" to get the actual comment page.

BTW the blog search is a lot better than it was but still has a long way to go. Might want to make a comment to Aaron.
Member Since: 26.07.2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9130
60. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 01:01 (GMT)
I have a feeling it's at least partially because the news reporting is a bit better. We're getting to hear about more events that do not affect us directly.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
59. BahaHurican
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 00:56 (GMT)
LowerCal,

I think that's it. What did u search for?

Michael, I couldn't figure out what to search FOR. I didn't have s storm name or anything. So I was stuck.

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
58. ajcamsmom
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 00:53 (GMT)
How long after an earthquake do you need to worry about a Tsunami? Is the weather worse then normal this year? I don't remember so very many of these devasting events before...so close together...so spread across the Globe...
57. Tazmanian
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 00:52 (GMT)
now this looks nic

lol
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114043
56. LowerCal
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 00:49 (GMT)
Is this what you all are looking for?

Posted By: atmosweather at 9:11 PM PDT on September 09, 2006.
BTW - Florence is, for the moment at least, explosively deepening. Why? You can tell by looking at satellite imagery. The cirrus clouds from the CDO are "fanning out", a typical characteristic of a storm experiencing almost zero shear and great outflow.

from here.
Member Since: 26.07.2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9130
54. Tazmanian
2. huhtikuuta 2007 klo 00:31 (GMT)
oh is looking for word to the hurricane forcast that comes out monday and the TSR forcast?


i cant wait
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114043

Viewing: 104 - 54

Page: 1 | 2 | 3Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
44 °F
Selkeää