Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Winter is back to normal
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 26. tammikuuta 2007 klo 14:38 (GMT) +3
Winter is back to normal across most of the Northern Hemisphere this week, as Europe finally got its first major snowstorm and cold air outbreak. A powerful low pressure system swept across Europe this week, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents across Germany, France, and Austria. About 5,000 vehicles were stranded in eastern France when the A6 motorway was cut off by snow. Over 200 police and firefighters were sent to help stranded motorists. Over a meter of snow fell in the Alps, bringing ski areas their first decent snows this winter. London got their first significant snow of winter, as well.


Figure 1. The long-range forecast for February, March, and April. Image credit: Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The 2-week forecast from the GFS model foresees a fairly normal winter pattern for the next two weeks over the Northern Hemisphere. The long-range forecast for the rest of winter and early spring (Figure 1) from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society also predicts a fairly normal weather pattern for the coming three months. Most of Europe, North America, and northern Asia are predicted to have near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Record high temperatures are most likely over portions of Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia.

Jeff Masters
Winter is here! (Jiri)
After a warm December and January, winter has finally arrived to Prague! The snow cover in Prague is now 15 cm (6 inches) and it's still snowing! For the first time this winter, you can go skiing in the city parks. In the picture, you can see the passenger train from Prague to Kladno. Unlike the motorists stuck in traffic jams, this train will arrive on time today!
Winter is here!
1st snow this winter (Derek1)
After many weeks mild weather winter has at last arrived in Geneva. Beautiful but treacherous!
1st snow this winter
Categories: Winter Weather
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251. Thunderstorm2 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:44 (GMT)    
Who is your favourite cricketer?

Shane Warne is retires so does he count?
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
252. Patrap 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:44 (GMT)    
RU cool..GOM..Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111624
253. Patrap 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:46 (GMT)    
LaBranch Buoy Data..Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111624
254. ryang 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:50 (GMT)    
Shane Warne is retires so does he count?


Your favourite from WEST INDIES.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
255. Patrap 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:51 (GMT)    
Lake Ponchatrain view, Causeway Bridge. Link
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111624
256. Thunderstorm2 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:56 (GMT)    
Your favourite from WEST INDIES.

oh sorry didn't understand. I don't really know because i only watch cricket if England are playing and if they are going to loose so i don't know about the West Indies players
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
257. ryang 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 21:58 (GMT)    
I will be back later.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12333
258. wfreeck 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 22:07 (GMT)    
This is defeinetly what a typical Michigan winter should be like

"How does snow rates 1-2 inches per hour with nearly 2 inches accumulating along with white out conditions and 70 car pile ups sound in Detroit?"

Quoted by me.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
259. Thunderstorm2 28. tammikuuta 2007 klo 22:15 (GMT)    
I got to go take care of other things. Bye
Member Since: 22.12.2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
261. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 00:40 (GMT)    
wfreek~ Here's your pile up.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
262. wfreeck 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 00:43 (GMT)    
ty skyepony.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 124 Comments: 3535
263. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 01:27 (GMT)    
Freezing Child

SCOTLAND is on the brink of a power crisis after an accident at one of the country's biggest electricity plants massively reduced supplies to the national grid.

Thousands Still Without Power in Okla.


Torrential rain and flash floods this week wreaked havoc in Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi, leaving 81 Angolans and five Mozambicans dead.

In Mozambique, 3 500 people are reported to have been without shelter earlier this week, in Angola 1 300 families have lost their homes, and in Malawi 20 villages are still under water.

(Video) Tesla Roadster Demonstration

Vast petroleum reserves in the Arctic are a key source of world energy, but development must also protect the fragile cold-weather environment and curb greenhouse gases, Norways oil minister said Monday.

The International Energy Agency estimates that carbon capture and storage could contribute 20 to 28 percent of total emission reductions by 2050.


& homeless shelters are open about everywhere, from Florida on north.


Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
264. HCW 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 02:27 (GMT)    
Setup is there that we could see a storm just like this over the next 2 weeks

2001-2002 snow storm


http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Link
Member Since: 10.08.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280
265. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 02:33 (GMT)    
99S is now 10S NONAME ~40kts, 994mbs


new invest alert~93S


Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
266. hurricane23 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 03:50 (GMT)    
Indeed skyepony but thankfully not a threat right now to land.Track

Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277
267. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:00 (GMT)    
i see loop eddys in the Caribbean do you see the same thing??? and i see a few eddy starting to pop up in the gulf

lol
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
269. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:05 (GMT)    
The loop in the EP looks the worst.

Noname there, looks alot like the other storms that have formed in that area this year.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
270. hurricane23 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:07 (GMT)    
Took a pic off skys over my house earlier this evening before the sun went down as the cool air was begining to spill in.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277
271. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:07 (GMT)    
i see may be 3 looop eddys in the gulf this year
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
274. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:16 (GMT)    
23~Had neat clouds here too today.

Michael~ Just makes it all the more fun to watch..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
275. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:23 (GMT)    
That article I posted easlier got me looking at 30 day rain averages & anomilies on Trmm for S Afica & the globe.

Scrolled down a little & realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold. Comparing it to the not updated bimonthly, it took a dive.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
276. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:25 (GMT)    
the Heat Potential in the Caribbean seem to be geting a little higher evere day
looool
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
277. hurricane23 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:30 (GMT)    
Time will tell if the CMC is correct...More Here


Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277
278. Patrap 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:32 (GMT)    
7
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111624
279. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:39 (GMT)    
This one is 3 hrs newer & gives a good referance to it's spot on the glodal. Been heading south, forecasted to continue that way. Luckly, it doesn't look headed for the flooded out S Africa.

Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
280. hurricane23 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:39 (GMT)    
One more image...


Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13277
281. lightning10 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:43 (GMT)    
Cut off low VS Dry air down here in So Cal. Dry air has won the battle. At one time there was an 80% chance of rain today. Doesnt look like anyone south of LA got rain today.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629
282. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:50 (GMT)    
lightning10 here's all sorts of Satalite of that. Did you read latest west Coast blog about the blocking Rex & how hard it is to forecasts those cut off lows? Good stuff there.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
283. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 04:55 (GMT)    
sky what do you mean by this????

realized the ENSO precipitation index has gone negative, signalling ENSO gone cold
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
285. lightning10 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 05:00 (GMT)    
Ya I did read it. I know cut off lows are very hard to predict. Its just been so dry here and when it looked so good for rain earlyer in the day and nothing comes of it its disapointing just like all of winter so far.

There is a lot of moisture in the air but at the surface its a different story. Due Points are in the low to mid 40's. Humidity is much higher then it was earlyer but still around 60-80% in the valley areas.
Member Since: 24.11.2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629
286. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 05:02 (GMT)    
wish means what??? do we have neutral conditions or do we now have La Nina conditions or this about???
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
287. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 05:09 (GMT)    
Taz~ it's an indicator. We are still in El Nino, it just says don't be suprised if it's Neutral in 30 days.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
288. Skyepony (Mod) 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 05:11 (GMT)    
I thought it was interesting. Guess it doesn't help drought frustrations after this tease none.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29370
289. Tazmanian 29. tammikuuta 2007 klo 05:14 (GMT)    
i think El Nino will be gone in monday update and we may have Neutral now but will wait in tell mondays update
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360
290. dmthieme 3. helmikuuta 2007 klo 19:19 (GMT)    
I would take issue with your equating an "expert judgment" with a "theory." Theory is what is used to develop the computer forecast models and the general circulation models. Some experts like Judith Curry and Kerry Emmanuel do hypothesize a connection between sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone intensity. The theory has not really been developed to the point where we can model the relationship, however. For that matter, we cannot really model individual storms with the large grid cells in most of the GCMs.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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