Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Winter forecast

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 16:47 (GMT)

Hello, Aaron here. Dr. Masters is on vacation and has taken an oath NOT to blog while out. He did leave some blogs for me to post periodically during that time. Here's the first one:

This Fall's ongoing El Ni�o event shows no signs of going away, and may grow stronger, according to the latest El Ni�o advisory issued last week by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The strength of an El Ni�o event is measured by how far above average the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in a region near the Equator off the Pacific coast of South America are. These SSTs are about 1 degree C above normal right now, qualifying this as a moderate El Ni�o event. A weak El Ni�o event has SSTs .5 degrees C above normal, and a strong one, 2 degrees C above normal. The strongest El Ni�o on record, in 1997, had SSTs 2.5 degrees C above normal.

The SSTs in the El Ni�o region are forecast to remain between .5 C and 2.0 C above normal through springtime by all of the El Ni�o models, so we can expect typical El Ni�o weather throughout this winter. This likely means warmer than average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter than average conditions can be expected over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and drier than average conditions in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest. Global effects during November through March will likely include drier than average weather over Malaysia, Indonesia, the tropical North Pacific, northern South America, and southeastern Africa, and wetter than average conditions over equatorial East Africa, central South America (Uruguay, northeastern Argentina, and southern Brazil) and along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru.

It was a surprise to me to look at the global temperature forecast for the winter (Figure 1) and see NO areas with an above average chance to be cooler than normal. Usually, there is at least one region of the globe expected to be on the cool side of things. If this forecast verifies, 2006 should rank as one of the five warmest years on record, and may challenge 1997 and 2005 as the warmest year on record.

Figure 1. This winter's temperature forecast for the world from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Figure 2. This winter's precipitation forecast for the world from Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Winter Weather

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2. Patrap 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 16:59 (GMT)
When ya Outta the Blue..and into the pink...I see a trend.Warmer trend all around. Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112974

6. rapidintensify 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Welcome aboard Aaron, thanks for updating the blog.

8. Hawkeyewx 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 17:28 (GMT)
"Kofi Annan" and "Frightening lack of leadership" are a perfect combination of phrases. Member Since: 5.07.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1922

9. mrpuertorico 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 17:33 (GMT)
this is what scares me Link Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833

10. ricderr 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 17:36 (GMT)
"Kofi Annan" and "Frightening lack of leadership" are a perfect combination of phrases. LMAO Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 630 Comments: 18090

12. 147257 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:04 (GMT)
hmm i am more interested in the raining climate not if it warmer or colder Member Since: 2.08.2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68

13. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:12 (GMT)
wow we have some really bad stuff going on here in Alabama..hail..wind ..tornadoes..power is on and off..trees are down...will check in as I can Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

17. nash28 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:27 (GMT)
Cyclone... Please, calm down about the global warming.. You are wound up too tight about this. Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

18. Gatorgrrrl 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:28 (GMT)
Hey Nash...how are you?

19. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:29 (GMT)
power is back on for awhile ..I hope..wind has the trees bent over and lightning is popping every where...we have had .05 hail if you are in the path of this get ready for it... Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

20. nash28 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:29 (GMT)
I'm ok Gator. Just taking a quick lunch before resuming meetings.... Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

22. neverfollow 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:32 (GMT)
Auburn, Gulf Shores currently under at least tropical storm conditions as bad as any this season. Wind at least 50 as I write and heavy heavy rain. Surf up to 6 feet.

24. nash28 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:35 (GMT)
Yeah, it's gonna be hairy in parts of the SE today and into tomorrow. Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

26. aquak9 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:37 (GMT)
EEEEEEK! said the dog. Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

29. sandcrab39565 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:40 (GMT)
Afternoon everyone been a busy bumpy morning here in South MS Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

30. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:40 (GMT)
ok..power is on and off...wow its getting BAD here Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

31. nash28 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:41 (GMT)
Hey there Crab. Stay safe. Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

32. sandcrab39565 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:42 (GMT)
Good afternoon everyone its been a busy bumpy road in South MS today Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

33. aquak9 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:42 (GMT)
Hello sandcrab, an honor to meet ya. JFLORIDA...where are you at in florida? Sandcrab, auburn...stay safe. Wear that mess out before it heads my way. Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

34. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:42 (GMT)
just had a daycare center in Montgomery loose its roof Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

37. aquak9 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:47 (GMT)
yeah just east of montgomery...not looking sweet...moving dang fast...tornado warning...look for those little red curly tails... Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

39. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:48 (GMT)
All kids are ok...minor stuff cuts and such...thank god Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

40. aquak9 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:48 (GMT)
hopefully EMS in the area is on full alert Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

41. sandcrab39565 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:48 (GMT)
Hello Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

43. aquak9 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:52 (GMT)
StL...we got a big mess headed up here in the southeast...hope you'll keep your eyes open for us. Member Since: 13.08.2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

44. Skyepony (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:56 (GMT)
auburn~ is that the same as- NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...DAMAGE TO PINTLALA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. TWO OTHER STRUCTURES DAMAGED...ONE COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (BMX) or was it 2 different hits. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29965

45. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:57 (GMT)
this is almost like a cane at times...straightline winds rain is blowing sideways...trucks off the interstate...roofs gone...and its not letting up...85 north is closed Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

46. auburn (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:58 (GMT)
different sky Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 539 Comments: 46940

47. Skyepony (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 18:59 (GMT)
conservative is right~ look at the raw T# 6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.6 3.8 5.3 Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29965

50. Skyepony (Mod) 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 19:03 (GMT)
now that didn't look like that when I previewed the comment...raw is the 5.3. Sounds rough auburn...careful. Not really looking forward to it here. Local NWS has it hitting after midnight, stressing check the alarm on your NOAA radio of go buy one. Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29965

51. sandcrab39565 15. marraskuuta 2006 klo 19:03 (GMT)
My neighbors to the east be aware this is a strong system. Member Since: 25.06.2006 Posts: 36 Comments: 9971

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