Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:01 (GMT)

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An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.

OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!

Jeff Masters

Dante's Peak (waytobleu)
View of Badwater
Dante's Peak

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1228. snotly
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 16:58 (GMT)
GOM; looks like a center is forming near Brownsville... any surface winds?? low pressure??
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
1227. PBG00
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:34 (GMT)
At leaste it is something to watch..
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1226. ProgressivePulse
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:33 (GMT)
I was noticing that too PBG00, have to see the later model runs today.
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1225. IKE
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Dr. M has a new blog.........
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1224. PBG00
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:17 (GMT)
GFS sort of hints at it
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1223. StormJunkie
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:16 (GMT)
Morning all.

Looks like things are starting to get a little more active out there. I still don't think that 98L has much of a shot, but that is just my geuss. Also still waiting to see how low E of the Antilles does. The dry air is still supressing it fairly well for now, but once it gets to the islands it may have a better chance.

See ya'll later, back to work.
StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more. If anyone has any suggestions for the site please email me or leave them in my blog.

Thanks
SJ
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1222. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:15 (GMT)
The latest CMC 850 mb Vort has the CATL wave making landfall on the east coast of FL before recurving back out to sea. Very interesting...
I am still waiting for the next few GFS and NOGAPS model runs to acknowledge this before I get to excited.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1221. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:11 (GMT)
No problem:-)
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1220. PBG00
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:09 (GMT)
Just yankin your chain nash..no biggie..
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1219. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Just trying to get a point across guys. Butt plug just happened to pop up in my head at the time. I chose (unlike TT earlier) not to be more vulgar.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1218. ProgressivePulse
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Makes you wonder PBG00! lol.
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1217. PBG00
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Hey PP...Check out the CMC model..850 vorticity..interesting
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1216. ProgressivePulse
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Morning all!
Member Since: 19.08.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
1215. PBG00
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:02 (GMT)
Just catching up here..but, since when do educated well spoken adults use the term "Butt Plug" LOL
Member Since: 20.10.2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1214. crownwx
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:01 (GMT)
I noticed on this morning's 850 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis that a new area of vorticity may be forming further out over the GOM. I'm interested to see if a new area of low pressure may form in this area. Link

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com
Member Since: 27.12.2004 Posts: 3 Comments: 207
1213. LSUHurricaneHunter
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:58 (GMT)
I looks as if the low level "circulation" can maintain its current intensification, then 98l may have enough time to develop into a system as its heads for the slight bend of the texas coast. If 98l remains on its north track there will be enough distance placed b/w the llc and coastline to get some decent wrap around. It will likely only have about 12-24 hrs to achieve this though.
1212. ridesthestorms
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:49 (GMT)
I enjoy this blog, Thank you all for helping me learn about the weather.
Member Since: 19.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
1211. ricderr
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:39 (GMT)
skye..i enjoy your posts and they are informative...however..when you decide how to moderate this blog...ie (chit chat in another blog) i feel you cross the line. the same could be said about those that want a pure weather only blog.... take it to another blog....i'm not endorsing that viewpoint..just that it is as valid as yours...i happen to feel this site is for entertainment where if you don't watch out..you'll even learn something...aka the discovery channel....most people here.....seem to want both and contribute as such..i include myself in that category...my 2 cents
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1210. Skyepony (Mod)
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
1209. Skyepony (Mod)
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:27 (GMT)
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN THE
GENERATION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN WHICH CASE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS

$
WALLACE

TT~ ussually your like a fresh breath of chaos, but language like this morning will get you banned. For images, practice in your own blog or use the preview feature.

For the newbies that have been hanging out & chatting in this blog, nothing against ya'll~ this has come up in the past...chit chat in another blog. Plenty of chattin blogs, if you don't like them, take it to your own & tell those you've been chatting with. This blog is way tooo big for an invest.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36107
1208. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Sorry rapid. I just do not have patience for those who wish to be an irritant. I guess it is a character flaw of mine, but him being banned I completely agree with.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1207. rapidintensify
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:23 (GMT)
nash....do not be too judgemental towards others, in the Lord's eyes we are all the same. I saw his posts as well which are not justified however, we should pray for him in addition to having him banned.
1206. littlefish
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:17 (GMT)
The C Atl looks very unimpressive this morning. Still has a LONG ways to go if it wants a name... IMO.
1205. observer12
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:17 (GMT)
looks like a lot more convection this morning over the open gulf waters
1204. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:16 (GMT)
Agreed StPete. These "people" and I use that term loosely, need to find something else to do with their pitiful lives.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1203. StPeteBill
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:14 (GMT)
I seldom post on here but do enjoy reading everyones take and have learned a tremendous amount but I have to say that there is no room for people like TropicalTerror and his obscene comments. Everyone should report his post as obscene simply for the vulgar language.
Member Since: 12.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
1202. RedMosquito
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:00 (GMT)
ricderr

You've got mail.
1201. nash28
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:51 (GMT)
The CATL wave is looking good. It has made it through some of the dust and dry air and is still rolling along.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1200. BahaHurican
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:49 (GMT)
I won't have time today, unfortunately. Got a 10 a. m. mtg, and no wireless at the site :o(

The two ATL waves look like they persisted though, and it's getting to be that time (August, I mean). Also the GoM feature does look like it will bring rain, though I see some huge blowup of thunderstorms down by the LA coast. Hope it makes it on shore in TX!

Ya'll have fun. I'll be back tonight . . . .
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
1199. BahaHurican
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:44 (GMT)
I see they have transfered the discussions for Daniel to CPHC . . . . and the forecast is currently for Daniel to hit the big island as a TS on Thursday night / Friday morning . . .

What a persistent little storm!
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
1198. SWLAStormFanatic
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:36 (GMT)
Baha, you did't miss much. Just alot of discussion about the two disturbances (Bay of Campeche and Cent. Atl.) Not a whole lot of substance, not much drama until this morning.
1197. ricderr
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:35 (GMT)
Baha...may i suggest speed reading?....or......treat it like a soap opera.....whatever happened yesterday...will be repeated today.... ;-)
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1196. BahaHurican
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:33 (GMT)
What happened in here yesterday??? 1100+ comments???

No way I can catch up on that . . .
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
1194. ricderr
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:25 (GMT)
big words from a little kid...mommy know you're playing on the computer again?....i see someone getting grounded real soon
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1190. ricderr
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:19 (GMT)
OK RED.......What website is that from.......totally funny...would like to send it to the wife but i would need to edit a few
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
1188. RedMosquito
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:07 (GMT)
IKE

Hehe. While I like to think I do have to much extra time, that link is dynamic, you can change the name to suit the occasion.
1187. IKE
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 11:48 (GMT)
Some people on here have WAAAAAY too much time on their hands.
Member Since: 9.06.2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1186. RedMosquito
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 11:41 (GMT)
BWAHHAHAHAHAHA!

This is for you!

Clicky!
1185. turtlehurricane
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 11:34 (GMT)
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Tropical Storm Daniel which is threatening Hawaii, tropical storm Emilia, and Tropical Storm Kamei which is threatening China on hurricane warning.
Member Since: 22.07.2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
1184. StormJunkie
25. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 10:49 (GMT)
Morning all. Looks like TT needs to find another sand box to play in.

Looks quite out there today, but that wave needs to be watched if it can shake the dry air. Still only the CMC is trying to develop it, and due to the Candian model trying to develop everything, I won't give it much credit yet. The BOC still has an outside chance at making TD, but looks pretty unlikely.

ya'll have a great day

StormJunkie.com-Find the best free weather data on the web.
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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