More heat; Gulf of Mexico disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 16:32 (GMT)

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The heat was unrelenting yesterday across the Southwest U.S., where most of California and Arizona set new high temperature records. The 99 degrees in downtown Los Angeles beat the old record of 96 set in 1960, and the suburb of Woodland Hills hit a record 119. All the cities in California's Central Valley set records: 109 degrees in Sacramento, 111 in Redding, and 112 in Red Bluff, Stockton and Modesto. San Francisco's 87 degrees easily beat the record of 81 for the date, set back in 1917.

In Phoenix, this morning's low temperature was 97 degrees, which broke the all-time record for highest low temperature ever recorded in that city (96, set on Jul 15, 2003). Tucson's low of 89 Saturday morning was its highest low temperature in recorded history, as well. The temperature topped out at record 116 in Phoenix yesterday, and 121 in nearby Gila Bend.

Tropical update
An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is over 20 knots in this region, which is too high to allow development today. Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting this shear to be 15 knots or higher over the next few days, and usually one needs wind shear to fall to the 10-15 knot range for development. However, the NHC is playing it cautiously and has put a Hunter airplane on call for Monday, if needed. I'll be surprised if this flight happens.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy another quiet weekend in the tropics, everyone!
Jeff Masters

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415. FortLauderdaleNole
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Jeff has posted a new blog ...
414. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:18 (GMT)
HEY STORMY.....
good morning to you......care to comment about the July tropical activity?
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
413. weatherhunter
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:15 (GMT)
I don't Know I still think we are to be hit by a major this year and if not Next We(NC) have not Officaly hit since like 2003 if not years below that
412. STORMTOP
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:12 (GMT)
your guess is as good as mind..they said the same thing last year...who knows what they are thinking lol...
411. weatherhunter
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:10 (GMT)
Then why does Noaa have a 69% chance of a Major landfall from NC SC and GA
410. STORMTOP
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:07 (GMT)
wrong the bermuda high coupled with the azores high is setting up a lot further west this year protecting the east coast and increasing the threat to the yucatan and middle texas coasts....StormTop
409. Cavin Rawlins
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 14:01 (GMT)
98L Update
25knots (30mph)
1011mbar
Convection has increase this morning.
Poorly organized.
Over 20-30knots of shear, shear tendency (steady)(not decresing or increasing)
SST are 28C and 30C in some spots.
Member Since: 24.07.2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
407. flynns
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:52 (GMT)
saddlegait: Well, my house was underneath it, if that's what you mean. Wikipedia knows all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal
406. weatherhunter
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:52 (GMT)
U people are crazy i mean u really need to think about what happens in Aus and Sep I mean the wind shear lowers and June and July are peak mounths for Dust so less Dust also there is areas of very warm water so I really really Dough This is going to be a inactive season
404. flynns
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Is anyone looking at the model (CMC, GFS, NOGAPS) runs for the Bermuda high? It's parking it waaay southwest, and -weakening- it, from like 1030-1040mb to, like, 1016mb. Anyone have comments on what-all this might mean?
403. nash28
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:25 (GMT)
I'm afraid the Bermuda High might be parking a little further south and west which sets up almost identical to 2004 when Florida got smacked from both sides.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
402. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:23 (GMT)
one has to love shear while it lasts...then have to hope the bermuda high does its job...
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
401. Skyepony (Mod)
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:23 (GMT)
agreed littefish, Shear will die down when Emilie moves on. She's hanging too close to land to develop into anything major. She's also pushed that low pressure area associated with the tropical wave into the gulf a little more. We'll see what happens with 98L once Emilie leaves, if she don't shear 98L to death 1st.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105
400. nash28
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:21 (GMT)
It will become more favorable for development as we get into August. The wind shear will not last all season long. The patterns will change and when they do, expect some serious action. Keep in mind, there have been several healthy waves this season that were just torn apart by the shear. We did not have this shear last year which is part of the reason last June and July were crazy.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
399. littlefish
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:19 (GMT)
African dust and wind shear, this year's season in a nutshell so far.
398. littlefish
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:14 (GMT)
When is that wind shear gonna die down?? I still think 98L will develop, but that wind shear is still quite strong. We've had heavy wind shear daily for several weeks it seems throughout Gulf and Caribbean... If wind shear doesn't die down, nothing can develop. Guess that's good for some:) Not for me, a storm junkie...
397. Tazmanian
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:04 (GMT)
sky i going back to sleep when you commet on my ? can you seen me a WU e mail or post your ? commet in my blog for me thanks
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
396. Tazmanian
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 13:00 (GMT)
sky Emilie's is not looking to well and not make it to a hurricane but how 98L doing right now i see the winds are back to 25kts winds right now
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
395. nash28
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:54 (GMT)
The latest CMC run has what may be a TS forming in the Caribbean and curving out to sea.
Member Since: 11.07.2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
394. Skyepony (Mod)
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:53 (GMT)
recon is still on~
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 23.0N 97.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 25/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
I figured it would gain convection a little through the night, seems to be sucking off one of Emilie's feeder bands at the moment. By late afternoon early evening it will probibly be lacking in convection again.

Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36105
393. StormJunkie
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Morning all. Looks like, with the exception of 98L things are pretty quite out there. THe only model picking up on anything in the next few days is the Canadian, but it has been very aggressive all season so don't think it can really be considered too much until at least one other model comes in line.

Anywho, I have got the day off, but will have to work this weekend, so I am going u=out to get some stuff done in the yard.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

Ya'll have a great day
SJ
Member Since: 17.08.2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
392. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:45 (GMT)
mr...enjoy your day......yeah..old at 28...i'd say...wait til you hit 40...then see how you feel..but everyone says to me...wait til you hit 50..then you'll really feel old....and i'm sure it goes on and on... the only upside to growing old is that it beats the alternative
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
391. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:41 (GMT)
nice! I know what you mean. I am 28 and i am starting to feel the sets alittle more now i just spent two weeks recovering from an injury i got on just sixer's i got it by over excerting myself my doctor told me " your not eighteen anymore" lol ok i got to go to the office see ya guys latter ill be checking in on you guys when ever i can so you better behave have a good one!
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
390. bappit
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:38 (GMT)
I might have thought that BOC wind speed was a thunderstorm downdraft but the speeds have picked up to 20 knots for over an hour. Maybe they will send a recon.
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
389. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:36 (GMT)
Mr...there you go....I grew up surfing at the beaches around santa cruz, california..and although i'm an "old man" (47) i still enjoy playing with a wave or two...the east coast florida waters are pefect for us old timers....low and slow
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
388. bappit
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:36 (GMT)
Check it out.
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5561
387. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:33 (GMT)
I wonder if pr is going to suffer another dry spell like last year
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
386. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:24 (GMT)
i am going surfing this week!!!
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
385. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:23 (GMT)
here's the forcast for pr for the next few days
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL COMBINE
WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AN
ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS
MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE RELATIVELY
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASE WINDS IN THE AREA. THEREFORE MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE NEXT ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE LOCAL AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. ALSO...WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD BE ALERT TO THESE POSSIBLE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
384. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:21 (GMT)
had some passing showers this morning actually while i was walking the mutt
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
383. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:19 (GMT)
mrpuertorico...
feeling a little strange with all the dry air around you at this time of the year?...looks like a perfect day.
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
382. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:14 (GMT)
little patch of developing thunderstorm activity on the northern secation of wave heading to the antilles wonder if it will continue to blossom
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
381. ricderr
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:10 (GMT)
Nola....
Very well put...
Member Since: 27.06.2006 Posts: 668 Comments: 20163
380. mrpuertorico
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 12:08 (GMT)
shhhhh! You'll wake up the atlantic
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
379. Michale
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 11:40 (GMT)
I am about as amatuer a weather observer as one can get...

But I seem to notice a wee little bit o circulation due east of Cape Canaveral.. Anyone else see this??


Michale
Member Since: 19.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
377. NOLAinNC
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 11:25 (GMT)
Hey Franck,

I have to point out that for many years, the Louisiana coastline has been destroyed by the Corps of Engineers intentially forcing the Miss Riv down one unnatural channel for the sake of shipping interests (for the entire US) The remaining coastline is polluted and degraded by coastal oil drilling (which has at times supplied up to 40% of the nation's oil) Our bottom-land forests here were denuded by national logging interests after the civil war, and our swamps and marshes drained to farm soy beans for the nation.

We are, by the way, Americans here in New Orleans. Our taxes helped bail out airlines and compensate victims after 9/11. Our little towns and parishes sent fire trucks to Manhattan. Go a little further back in history and you will find millions of examples of hard-working Louisianians giving deeply of themselves for national causes.

If the Federal government had honored promises of wetlands restoration and put a tiny fraction of the amount being currently spent on foreign wars into stablizing and repairing the natural systems that have protected coastal LA from storms for centuries, then Katrina would not have had the impact it did.

-NOLA
376. BigToe
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 10:46 (GMT)
Good Morning all.
Got some much needed rain here in central midlands of SC EARLY this mornin'. Sweet!! Morning Dr M.
Member Since: 12.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
375. franck
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 07:25 (GMT)
Yeah, not sure if there were intentional motives there. Katrina didn't really hit New Orleans at all, but it was such a monster
just grazing the city was enough. The levee thing can be viewed as a big protective chain around the city. It really just took the break of a single link to destroy it. But everybody concerned knew all that for decades. Now the big easy is just a hole where American taxpayer dollars are poured.
Member Since: 30.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
374. StormThug
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 07:17 (GMT)
Link
Member Since: 15.06.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
373. StormThug
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 07:17 (GMT)
heres the link too the whole article
http://www.grantchronicles.com/astro127.htm
Member Since: 15.06.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
372. StormThug
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 07:13 (GMT)
check out this article i found about katrina

A warning to the scientists, who were behind the systematic reduction wind speeds of Hurricane Katrina thru the media outlets as it approached the coastline, your credibility will be lost, if the same trend of behavior continues. More would have left affected areas if they knew the true wind speeds of 200215 mph and eye pressure was below 900mb at its peak. That storm turned away from New Orleans only in the last few hours with 30+ ft storm surges and monstrous waves on top.
Member Since: 15.06.2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 480
371. wxwatcher
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 06:08 (GMT)
105AM CDT

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W S OF 21N MOVING WEST 5-10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS S MEXICO AND
THE SW GULF. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES SLOWLY.

Not sold on the idea it's moving west... But it does look more like it is going to make landfall early Tuesday south of Brownsville as a wave... Sat pics are pretty anemic for this time of night. No imminant development. If it does make TD status, it'll be Tuesday just before landfall but I highly doubt NHC will classify it at that time.

See yall tomorrow..
370. SpyRI
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 06:05 (GMT)
g'night all.
368. SpyRI
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 05:59 (GMT)
It is dead (ok, I didn't leave lol!) but that's such a good thing after last year,. My sister lives in NOLA, and her whole life is still farked after Katrina. Her best friend was going to go pick up my sister so they could go to yoga together, parked her car, and promptly fell into an open manhole and into the NOLA sewer! She;s on major antibiotics for weeks. I can't imagine living there now. So a quiet season, if boring, at least hopefully won';t give us another Katrina!
367. hurricane23
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 05:56 (GMT)
Guys iam sorry to say but the tropics are DEAD as you will ever see it in july.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
366. hurricane23
24. heinäkuuta 2006 klo 05:52 (GMT)
nope still here for a couple more minutes.
Member Since: 14.05.2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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