Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Even a tropical disturbance, given the right conditions, can wreck havoc when it comes to rainfall.

anyone know what the disturbance in the southern gulf looks like today?

This morning msnbc.com had an image of someone looking over the new floodwall with the caption, "Levees Safe."

Dr. Masters said..."This year will not be a repeat of 2005!"....

I would tend to agree. By July 4th of last year we had Cindy and Dennis cranking up. We've only had the A storm so far in 2006 and the prospects for anything else in the near term aren't great.

Compared to 2005...this year, so far, has been a dud.

I hope its not like last year..2004 was just as bad or worse for some for different reasons though..so a slow start doesn't mean it won't be an active season.I doubt we will ever see another year like last year..That was wild.

I agree it could crank up during the peak of the season. One word describes this year so far...SHEAR!

I'll admit I didn't get a chance to catch the Tropical Round Table, if someone did catch the episode....what did Dr. Masters say about the overall pattern this season and how it does differ from 2005...I know he mentioned that he would blog about it, but would be curious to see a preview...lol.

I didn't catch the show either..

Wow,

I didn't know that area was flooded as recently as 1972. I guess if we use the same thought process that the majority of the country used regarding New Orleans and its flooding, then those folks should have known it would flood and moved to higher ground. And according the Mr. Hastert, our taxpayer money should not go the helping these people.

Keep in mind that New Orleans had not flooded since 1968 or 1969 prior to katrina and yes, I am being sarcastic about the events in PA. I feel for every one of the people caught up in this disaster.

In my real lifeI own a business and I travel throughout New Orleans in a sales capacity and talk to people from all walks of life and economic ranges and I have learned the real tragedy of Katrina.....it was never reported on the news...

The real tragedy of katrina was that the majority of people who did not leave New Orleans when the evacuation was ordered did not leave on their own free will. They owned cars, and had places to go, but instead of leaving, they went to areas that they thought would be safe from the ravages of the storm. Many of these people had a plan in place to evacuate to the Superdome, no matter what anyone said, and just as many evacuated to the housing projects in New Orleans to be with family since they were sure the feds would take care of them on federal property. By the time they realized the levees had failed and the water was rising, they were stuck due to water in the roads and the flooding of their vehicles and then walked to the convention center and superdome.

The real tragedy of the storm was put in place in the 1960's by politicians who tought these citizens that they would always have a place to run to in order to be cared for. These citizens were denied the knowledge of self preservation and self determination by a welfare system that took care of them at every turn, from medicine and the "charity hospital system", to shelter and the "HUD" housing buildings throughout the city(remember the CNN footage of the kids on the roof holding the banner pleading for help, that, was a housing project), to transportation and free passes for the RTA busses and street cars. 3 and 4 generations of residents have leased these same HUD housing units until katrina, and now, they are forced to start again and find real housing and transportation and medical care. Kowing the horrors of this event as intimately as I do since I am a life long resident of the New Orleans area I wonder, is this devastation of the welfare and HUD systems is a good thing or a bad thing?

hi yall. im heading up northeast later this week.

Round of applause for Gulf..nice tie of sarcasm and truth! [Lights up the applause sign]

LOL

"You would never hear Dr. Grey make such a bold statement."

Yet he issues a statement that gives the number of storms, which is less than 2005.

All,

I have a question...as thermal dynamics of the earth seek to move energy from the equator to the poles, thus creating a thermal gradient in the upper latitudes [aka jetstream], is it plausible to corelate the activity of a given hurricane season to the subsequent following seasons based on where/how the jetstream may set up based on that heat exchange? I am wondering if this cycle could have a predictive quality to determining Winter/Spring cycles based on the preceding hurricane season.

Food for thought..I encourage feedback, as I am not an expert. It seems cogent?

tropics remain quiet :)

there seemed to be a stationary parallel to the Appalachian Mountains which seemed to serve as a furrow for gads of moisture to travel along north. how historically common is the setup?

3807 said..." Are you the kind of sports fan that gives up on his football team after it starts the season with 2 losses?"....

In this case, no storms is great! I hope none develop the rest of the season. Your statement above makes it sound like we're frustrated there has only been 1 named storm. I'm glad!

May it continue...which it won't.

3807, you are missing my point. You said...

"You would never hear Dr. Grey make such a bold statement."

My response to which is.. he DID say 2006 was not going to be a repeat. He just said it with numbers. His numbers for 2006 are a long way off from what happened in 2005.

Emotion has nothing to do with it. I simply said that Dr. Greys "numbers" point to the fact that he doesn't believe this will be a season like 2005. How is this NOT true? How is this "emotional"?

And where did Dr. Masters say his thoughts were based on June alone? In his blog somewhere?

I have a question for you guys...Is there anywhere on wunderground.com you can click to get the disturbance models that Dr. Jeff Masters puts on his blog?? Like the one above? Just wondering, thanks for the help.

Dr Masters said yesterday he did not know a lot about the ITZ, so we all are learning as we go along regarding Tropical Cyclones. I am in NE Florida and I'd like to be in a weak Cat1 Hurricane please.

carcanesfan I look here

3807, you are missing my point. You said...

WSI.........Whats up with you copying everyones comments? Did you learn that in college? Everytime I come on here, your on here posting copies of their remarks. Believe me, i've seen all kinds of know-it-alls on here. No one knows everything. This blog is suppose to be a fun place for people to go chat about the weather, not about you correcting everyone.

if you dont want to be corrected or you dont want to argue dont post. the only way to have an intelligent discussion is to argue.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp

For models on WU.

---offtopic----
ahh, sorry stormtop, no change to Dr. Gray's prediction. Time to throw some more darts old buddy! (my prediction: ST will come on here knocking Dr. Gray for being so clueless)

the only way to have an intelligent discussion is to argue.
There are ways to discuss without arguing. Points can me made without arguing.

Weatherboy, its called debating! How else could you respond to other people's comments.

latest NAM model run 12Z has the caribbean wave headed for south Florida in 84 hours as a 1016 mb low..not much, but it's the only game in town.

Looks like it continues into the gulf and helps enhance rain along the gulf states.

I think arguing=points. I think he was using the word..arguing..as a figure of specch.

I wish it would come here with rain...!

Disney, the east coast has been dominated by a trough for most of June. This pattern looks to finally take a break hopefully next week as the Bermuda ridge bulds westward.

*speech* Still wish you could edit on here.

Your blog keeps kicking me out when I post Dr. M....ugh.......

Why does meteorology attract such a crew of geeks?

That strengthening Bermuda ridge may keep the Caribbean wave headed west..northwest.

Hi everyone, just my first pop in here at Dr Master's blog in about a week. Glad to see nothing is developing out there.

Take care,
Gamma

Geek...A person with an unusual or odd personality.

OMG!!!

We never all agree with everything that someone says.......Its ok to debate but when thats all you do then your going a little over board. I see things on here all the time that i think are wrong but i dont keep pointing them out to people. All im saying is it turns people off and makes them leave and i dont like that. I want this site to have a good reputation, not one that people are afraid to speak their opinions in fear that they will confronted for being wrong. Heck, I havent met a perfect weatherman yet........

if your afraid of being corrected you have no place here. this is a scientific discussion, its not always nice and happy. plus, whats so bad about being corrected? its the only way to learn.