Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait
Tropical Storm Ernesto lashed the Windward Islands with strong winds and heavy rain early this morning, as it passed over St. Lucia near 7 am AST. Ernesto brought sustained winds of 43 mph to Barbados at 7 am AST, and sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 63 mph to St. Lucia at 6:15 am AST. Ernesto looks moderately well-organized on Martinique radar, with spiral bands to the north and south feeding into an echo-free center. Ernesto is beginning to show more organization on visible satellite loops, with the very limited heavy thunderstorm activity near its center now expanding, spiral banding increasing, and an upper-level outflow channel developing to the north. Ernesto is fighting moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Strong upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the core of the storm, disrupting it. It appears, though, that Ernesto has fended off the most serious challenges to its survival, as the pressure has fallen to 1002 mb, and the storm's appearance on radar and satellite is gradually improving. The latest 7:30 am center report from the Hurricane Hunters also indicated that Ernesto was beginning to build an eyewall.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ernesto at 9:15 am EDT August 3, 2012. Image credit: Meteo France.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's survival into today means that the storm now potentially poses a formidable threat to the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is expected to drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today, and remain low for the next five days, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. With the storm entering a moister environment with increasing heat energy in the ocean, the official NHC forecast of Ernesto reaching hurricane strength by early Monday morning near Jamaica is a reasonable one. The reliable computer models predict a west to west-northwest motion through the Caribbean, with the storm's heavy rains staying south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The more southerly path predicted by the usually reliable ECMWF model, which brings Ernesto to a landfall in Belize on Wednesday, is being weighted less heavily by NHC, since they are assuming Ernesto will stay stronger than the ECMWF model is forecasting. Once Ernesto enters the Central Caribbean on Sunday, the storm's outer spiral bands will likely cause flooding problems in Southwest Haiti, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--none clearly show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. By Monday, a trough of low pressure passing to the storm's north may be capable of turning Ernesto more to the northwest, resulting in the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.
New African tropical disturbance 90L
A strong tropical wave is located just off the coast of Africa, about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. This disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC Friday morning, is headed west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over 90L, but is expected to drop, and water temperatures are warm enough to support development. NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning in their 8 am Friday Tropical Weather Outlook.
Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.
Extreme heat in Oklahoma
The most intense and widespread heat wave in Oklahoma since August, 1936 brought more than half of the state temperatures of 110° or higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday. The temperature at the Oklahoma City airport hit 112°, for the 2nd day in a row. These are the city's 2nd highest temperatures since record keeping began in 1890. The only hotter day was August 11, 1936, when the temperature hit 113°. Thursday's temperatures in Oklahoma were generally a degree or two cooler than Wednesday's, with the hottest temperature reported a 116° reading from a location just south of Tulsa International Airport. The highest reading Thursday at any major airport was a 114° temperature at Tulsa Jones Airport. Oklahoma's all-time state record is 120°, set in Tipton on June 27, 1994, and at three locations in 1936. Freedom, in the northwest part of the state, hit 121° on Wednesday, but this reading will need to be reviewed to see if the sensor was properly sited.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Diurnal Minimum, Diurnal Maximum.
That's right.
MinimumPressure increased from 1002millibars to 1003millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 276.7*West@20.3mph(32.7km/h) to 270.2*West@16.8mph(27km/h)
CDD-PuertoLempira :: PVA-Providencia :: AUA-Aruba :: SLU-St.Lucia :: SVD-St.Vincent
The Easternmost dot on the longest line is TropicalStormErnesto's most recent position
The longest line is a straightline projection through TropicalStormErnesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to a coastline
3August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over PraslinBay,St.Lucia
3August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had passed 5.1miles(8.2kilometres)South of St.Lucia on its way to passage 17.2miles(27.7kilometres)North of Aruba.
3August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over ParqueNacionalKruta near PuertoLempira
4August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage 7.6miles(12.2kilometres)South of Providencia in ~2days16hours from now (when this comment was posted)
Copy&paste pnd, cdd-15.1n83.315w, pva, aua-12.623n70.055w-12.872n70.082w, ngd, slu, svd, 13.1n55.5w-13.3n57.4w, 13.3n57.4w-13.7n59.8w, 13.7n59.8w-13.6n61.5w, 13.6n61.5w-13.8n63.3w, 13.8n63.3w-13.8n64.8w, 13.8n63.3w-13.213n81.384w, 13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w into the GreatCircleMapper for the larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison.
What does 91L mean for Ernesto if it strengthens?
Its a cloud of dust/dry air swept off Africa.
Affects the development of Tropical Systems in the Atlantic.
No, it's not fun, taz. Folks along the gulf coast are getting bad stomach aches. This is justified fear.
No, what is the problem you got there?
around midnight I believe.
hmmm, i cant get on, computer says it cant load..cant bring up those floaters either...its starting to get annoying..
Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches (maybe warnings) should be posted for Jamaica at 11pm.
Thanks.
That is what I'm hoping for. Ernesto not be good for our agricultural sector or the major road work that is going on.
You've seen what Katrina and Ike brings.
Folks are worried.
Bulletin 2
EVACUATION OF CAYS AND BANKS ADVISED … ERNESTO NOW OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
At 8:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Ernesto was estimated to be near Latitude 13.8 degrees North, Longitude 64.8 degrees West; about 1300 kilometres (812 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica or 550 kilometres (345 miles) south southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Ernesto is moving quickly towards the west near 33 km/h (21 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and little change in intensity is expected today. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 165 km (105 miles) mainly to the north and east of the centre.
Most of the rainfall and thunderstorm activity associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto are east of the centre, showing that the system is facing wind conditions that are restricting development. This should continue for the next couple of days, however, Ernesto is expected to remain a tropical storm south of Hispaniola and Jamaica and later strengthen.
Jamaica could begin to experience increased rainfall on Sunday afternoon and through Monday, along with periods of strong, gusty winds, mainly over southern parishes.
Fishers on the cays and banks are advised to evacuate immediately and start returning to the mainland. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and small craft operators who are in port are advised not to venture out.
The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests, especially fishers and other marine operators, should pay special attention to further Releases.
The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Ernesto will be issued at 11:00 p.m. today.
ram
Well, when I type in ssd.noaa.gov Firefox tells me it can't find the server...
Which means Ernesto wasn't phased at all by Dmin, and that means that it is A. Strengthening and B. becoming more potent and less succeptable to certain inhibiting factors...
I think that they'll wait until tomorrow morning.
I was just thinking that, somewhat similar to Felix when it entered the Caribbean.
i had the floaters open, and then i closed and reopend my browser and i cant get back on....
nothing from that site is accessible to me
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.
Sorry, the next flight is tomorrow around noon.
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
According to the NHC plan of the day its at midnight.
And it looks like we got nothing of value data wise out of the last one because of the equipment failure, so the models are still crapola basically.
Makes me want to bang my head into the desk, I want to know whether its going to Mexico or whether I have to consider packing my things.
Strange, I got firefox and when I typed it in to see it didn't work but when I click on the bookmark for it it works fine.
So basically non-mandatory evacuations for low lying areas...
and my previous post...:o(
Yeah, saw that just a few minutes ago.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
...ERNESTO MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INTERESTS
IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
aha it works on chrome...strange. it worked earlier today on firefox
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT
THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA. ANALYSIS FROM
CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE GFDL...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO
TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE
CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE
LGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND
HWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR. IN
ADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
SEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON
SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 13.9N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 14.7N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.4N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 16.1N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 22.0N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
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