2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas
The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.
Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon
Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.
Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.
Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)
In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Reader Comments
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Could have major implications for Antarctic ice shelf if proven true.
Now that was a great catch.
"Turquet's octopus...living on either side of the Western Antarctic ice sheet share almost identical genes.
...This shouldn't make any sense...the adult octopuses...are known to be territorial creatures which only tend to move under pressure from predators. And the Ross and Weddell seas, the locations for the population study, are 10,000kilometres apart."
ie They're currently separated by a seabed-grounded ice-sheet that makes the shortest ocean route between them ~6200miles.
And sharing nearly identical genes means that there hasn't been much time for natural genetic drift to make the difference greater.
Which makes it likely that there was a MUCH shorter route between the two seas relatively recently.
Which ties in (a coincidentally timely manner) with the concerns expressed in comment42 about the possibility of a relatively rapid basal melting of the Weddell ice-shelf, and the effect that would have on WestAntarcticeIceSheet.
*snicker*
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1121 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
ILLINOIS...
ILLINOIS RIVER AT LA SALLE AFFECTING BUREAU AND LA SALLE COUNTIES
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND
FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.
&&
ILC011-099-120621-
/O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120512T1559Z/
/LSLI2.1.ER.120507T2245Z.120509T1630Z.120512T0959 Z.NO/
1121 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT LA SALLE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 1045 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS FROM 6 MILES
UPSTREAM TO 12 MILES DOWNSTREAM ARE FLOODED.
$$
I've read quite a bit that there was a big rise in sea level 120,000 years ago to as much as 20 feet higher than today. That may be when the west Antarctic octopus population was unified.
I saw the article you posted and googled the call letters to that station and then clicked on Houston Community Newspaper and entered the city/state under the weather link and it came up and I clicked picture and those came up and lots of them.
Didn't realize what this area looked like when it was mostly de-iced, Ouch..
Hi Nigel..
Been raining heavy here all day again.
When does this stuff move to the West like they say it will ????
Looks like a wet week again.
Hey pottery. High pressure is forecasted to build in over the eastern Caribbean on the weekend...this shoulld reduce the wet weather in the said area.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111822Z - 111915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF N TX
NEAR AND N OF THE DFW METROPLEX...BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
DISCUSSION...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IS OBSERVED...MODEST
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND
NERN TX -- WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO OCCUR OVER THE PAST HOUR AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WHICH LINGERS ATTM OVER NWRN TX.
SOME ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL LIMITED CAPE COMBINED WITH MODEST FLOW
ALOFT /DEPICTED BY MODEL FORECASTS AND CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST KFWS
/FORT WORTH/ WSR-88D VWP/ SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
GENERAL. WHILE A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF MARGINAL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ATTM THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT WW
CONSIDERATION.
..GOSS/HART.. 05/11/2012
Looks like any support of having Alberto next week vanished today... Oh well... Maybe the GFS will flip again.
Also good to see a pair of invests in the East Pac... Aletta seems to be on the way!
The population in Canada and Africa increase dramatically were that to happen
What's up MA?
How much of a rise is that, like 300 feet?
Here is the climate report from April for Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands. It shows how much it rained in a relativly dry month as April normally is. And the graphic of rainfall speaks for itself.
Link
The GFS is rapidly trying to unseat the CMC for the rep of constantly spinning up random cyclones.
(note: that is just one member of the ensemble run)
How many meters is this?
Showoff! :p Lol. Nah,good idea. I'm just having one of those running around like crazy days. :)
INV/90E/XX
MARK
9.5N/105.3W
Yeah, if that pans out I will attempt to eat several large metaphorical hats.
Hey Nigel... Just glad school's out for the week!
Also glad we may have a TS in the East Pac soon.
Lol. That'll change. All the other tropical storms will get with him and say, " Remember Don? Dude! You do NOT wanna go there!" It'll be going to Bermuda next run. Lol.
ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS. ONE PARTICULAR ANTICYCLONE
SITS RIGHT OVER DEVELOPING 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
08.7N104.8W WHERE SST TOP 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALBEIT ONLY IN A
SHALLOW TOP LAYER. UNDER THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
THAN GFS...BUT DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN UKMET OR NOGAPS...MORE
IN TUNE WITH CMC BRINGING SPINNING WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN NEXT 48
HRS BEFORE A QUICK DOWNTURN AFTER THE WEEKEND LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOWNESS OF WARM WATER LAYER AND INCREASING SW WIND SHEAR
FROM UPSTREAM APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
Looks like if anything forms it will die fast in the Eastern notyh pacific.
That really looks to be coming together in that last frame or two
Puerto Rico...definitely need a break from all this wet weather...so many records broken and we are not even half way into the year
Yeah, we really need a storm to watch
Looking forward to that.
If it comes to pass this far south....
Hi MA.The ECMWF has a strong system as GFS .
Interesting... Especially since it hasn't been supporting the development of Aletta with this current area of interest...
And SST's are warm enough to support a strong or moderate hurricane, shear allowing
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