Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wow, stay safe everyone. Thanks Dr. Masters.

Thanks for the post, Dr. M!

Tomorrow (and to a lesser extent, Sunday) look to be very eventful weather days.

Both the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast Gulf Stream are certainly going to play a factor to any storms that cross their thresholds this season. 

Thank you Dr. Masters. I hope everyone in the warning area take heed and find their safe place to ride out these storms.

off topic but important..anyone up in that area, pls keep an Eye out for this car and child..................WVC001-003-005-007-009-011- 013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-0 55-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-0 87-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-131600-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING THE ABDUCTED
CHILD IN PRINCETON...MERCER COUNTY. THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
ARE LOOKING FOR PORSHIA ATWELL...A WHITE...FEMALE...8 YEARS
OLD...FOUR FEET TWO INCHES TALL...75 POUNDS. THE CHILD WAS LAST
SEEN AT CAMP CREEK...WEST VIRGINIA...AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN
EXTREME DANGER. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN WEARING UNKNOWN CLOTHING.
AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY HER
FATHER...TRACEY LEE ATWELL...A 49 YEAR OLD MALE...6 FEET 2 INCHES
TALL...180 POUNDS...WITH HAZEL EYES.

THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN A WHITE JEEP CHEROKEE LAREDO...WITH A
WEST VIRGINIA LICENSE PLATE NUMBER 6C...3202.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF PORSHIA
ATWELL...PLEASE CONTACT WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE AT
304...425...2101. OR YOUR LOCAL 911...OR *SP ON YOUR CELL PHONE.

$$

Irene has been retired.

Link

Good morning. The name Irene has been retired from the list of names and replaced with Irma.

Link

with the warmest temps on record in the gulf, you would think at least a lil thunderstorm would head for florida and relieve this drop just a little, next rain Maybe comes thursday of next week and thats only a 20% chance.........HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
438 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-132100 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
438 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE EASTERLY EVENING
SURGE. STRONGEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40
PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL CREATE CONTINUED
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY

hmmm i was hoping lee would get retired

guess what i am not naming my kid... Irma

Quoting Tazmanian:
hmmm i was hoping lee would get retired

Really no need for Lee to be retired.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Really no need for Lee to be retired.

Yea Lee was a fun storm to be in!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. The name Irene has been retired from the list of names and replaced with Irma.

Link

No surprise; many here called that one back in November.

Goodnight, Irene...

Saturday's Tor-Con#'s April 14

IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2

2012 is not even halfway over and how many records have been broken so far?
atmospheric volatility looks to only increase as temps and moisture content -right? I would not own stock in insurance companies.. just sayin'

well I guess some of us including me was right about the warm SST in GOM

and anyone notice that it is rapidly warming in the NW Caribbean

Quoting JNCali:
2012 is not even halfway over and how many records have been broken so far?
atmospheric volatility looks to only increase as temps and moisture content -right? I would not own stock in insurance companies.. just sayin'

It'll just be more expensive to buy insurance as if its not already high enough.

Was just about to mention this is only the second time ever SPC has issued a day 2 high risk on the last blog.... Thank You for the update Dr. Masters!

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record


Kinda figures.

Positive I've never seen daily maps for the western and northern Gulf that hot this time of year.

It's actually at least 2C above last year in some locations along the north of the Gulf, or was a few days ago when comparing same day vs same day.

Say if we use the average of 1.5C above average.

If you have that averaged for the top meter of water and using a kilometer grid, then excess energy above average comes to a difference:

6.3 giga-joules per square kilometer.

or

76.8 Terra-joules per square map degree....


that's literally an EXCESS of 1/3rd of the Integrated Kinetic Energy of hurricane Ike PER square map DEGREE of Gulf...

Good morning Dr Jeff,
Interesting information in the header. I was so hoping this year would not be another year of nasty tornadoes. Thanks for the update.


Hi everyone,
It is about time Irene got retired, should have been retired before.
Anytime I hear Irene I remember the one that caughter everyone at work in October 1999
and flooded us out in SE Florida for days... not heavy winds,
Cat 1 winds but so much flooding.

Good Night Irene!!!



Happy Friday everyone!

"It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage."



SPC also posted it on Facebook this morning.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


If you really think this W. Scott Lincoln fellow at the NWS is famous-enough for random people on the internet to try and copy with fake blog usernames (usernames that were created over 6 years ago, before said NWS employee was even done with college, let alone a famous NWS employee), you could always email him at his work address and see if he responds to you with:
A) what!? someone is copying my identity on some unpopular weather website called Weather Underground? or
B) Yes, I've had the handle "ScottLincoln" since my early years of weather-interest when I first had a home weather station and before I even finished my B.S., let alone became an NWS employee.

Scott,

Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work!

I was hoping Don would get retired.

Quoting aspectre:
I was hoping Don would get retired.

Lol. The way Texas caused him to evaporate, his name should evaporate as well.

Quoting Chucktown:
Irene has been retired.

Link

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. The name Irene has been retired from the list of names and replaced with Irma.

Link

But...but...Irene was a bust, right? :-p

Man, I'm totally getting scared about traveling to Oklahoma this weekend for work. Not a good feeling. Wonder if I'd get fired if I refused to go?

GOM Sea Height Anomaly

2012





2011

Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott,

Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work!

Kinda curious myself.. If he does, I have probably talked on the phone with him a few times!

MJO seems to wanna hang around this month.

You can look Scott up.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
MJO seems to wanna hang around this month.

Not surprising. Even though the North Atlantic hasn't been that warm relative to average so far this year, it's still the warmest basin on the planet as a whole. Add that in with the warm East Pacific waters with the oncoming El Nino, we should see the MJO stick around our part of the world for a while.

ScottLincoln..you have been here since 2002, you of all people should know with the "unpopular" website called Weather Undergound of how MANY people pose as meterologists and claim to work at the NWS..again good for you if you are who you say you are..my POINT was NO one on this blog should be giving advice to people about life and death issues concerning the weather. They should refer to their local NWS or local meterologists, law enforcement, etc. As you professed to work there, then they can reach you THERE (NWS) at a credible point of contact for those type of questions, not on WU. Like I said man, nothing against you or any other meterologists that come to this blog as I have never claimed to be one myself..much respect that you earned that title. I am only here for the interest of weather only!

also shear in the Caribbean is now below climo



GOM shear is hanging around just below climo

Quoting ncstorm:
ScottLincoln..you have been here since 2002, you of all people should know with the "unpopular" website called Weather Undergound of how MANY people pose as meterologists and claim to work at the NWS..again good for you if you are who you say you are..my POINT was NO one on this blog should be giving advice to people about life and death issues concerning the weather. They should refer to their local NWS or local meterologists, law enforcement, etc. As you professed to work there, then they can reach you THERE (NWS) at a credible point of contact for those type of questions, not on WU. Like I said man, nothing against you or any other meterologists that come to this blog as I have never claimed to be one myself..much respect that you earned that title. I am only here for the interest of weather only!

Great post!

Storms starting to pop in S FL.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Storms starting to pop in S FL.

Hey there stormtracker2k, really getting dry here in zephyrhills how about over you way. Do you see any rain in the next couple of weeks?

Wichita, KS NWS:

WITH THIS
SAID...NAM/WRF FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KICT AT 03Z/SAT LOOKS LIKE THE
PROVERBIAL "LOADED GUN"...WITH SUPERCELLS AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES
LOOKING VERY LIKELY SAT EVENING FROM KSLN TO KICT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
COULD SEE A TORNADO OUTBREAK SAT EVENING. A LARGE CONCERN EXISTS
THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET
SAT EVENING...AS MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND CIN VALUES REMAIN LOW
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...INCREASING
THE CHANCE FOR A LONG TRACK TORNADO CONTINUING LONG AFTER DARK.
STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TORNADOES AFTER DARK SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF LIFE. SPC COORDINATED WITH THE LOCAL
OFFICES AND THEY HAVE GONE WITH A RARE DAY2 HIGH RISK ACROSS THE
AREA.

May have been posted already, but anytime I see "loaded gun" in a discussion, it gets my attention. Let's hope for a bust in this forecast. Otherwise, tomorrow is going to be a bad, bad day.

I believe after all that I would prefer to live with the danger of a hurricane, which is moderately predictable (I evacuated for Rita, which was a bust, and Ike, when I had to have a new roof), than with the danger of a tornado, where you don't have a clue. Maybe a tornado will come, maybe not, and it could wipe your house off the map and leave your neighbor's house untouched, or just hit 10 miles away, touching down for 1/2 mile.

Quoting severstorm:

Hey there stormtracker2k, really getting dry here in zephyrhills how about over you way. Do you see any rain in the next couple of weeks?

Driest I've seen in years. Even some of the lakes are now dried up. Good news is the CPC is expecting above average rains from next week thru maybe the rest of the month.

hoping for Keeper to post some nice res. visible images for today ;)
not sure how those 1km images are found at the scale he posts them...

Quoting severstorm:

Hey there stormtracker2k, really getting dry here in zephyrhills how about over you way. Do you see any rain in the next couple of weeks?

It could be possible that we start getting into a summer pattern starting mid next week. Cross your fingers!

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Driest I've seen in years. Even some of the lakes are now dried up. Good news is the CPC is expecting above average rains from next week thru maybe the rest of the month.

Yes that would be great news. I know its April and we dont get much rain around these parts. I've only had 2.69 since last november. Kinda reminds me of back in 2001 thru early 2003 like a desert back then. well heres hoping the pattern changes. good to hear from you.

Quoting severstorm:

Yes that would be great news. I know its April and we dont get much rain around these parts. I've only had 2.69 since last november. Kinda reminds me of back in 2001 thru early 2003 like a desert back then. well heres hoping the pattern changes. good to hear from you.

you too!

I was asked to put this up, as I usually won't put up this trivial info.

This is the earliest update that a high risk of severe weather has been issued by the SPC. The Previous time was April 6, 2006, but the high risk wasn't issued until the 17:30z outlook. This is the earliest that a high risk can be issued.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Great post!

A great post that completely misinterprets what Mr. Lincoln was actually saying on the last blog.

Afternoon all.

Hard to believe this cloud formation



just gave us [Nassau] about 25 minutes of hard rain...

Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott,

Do you work at the Jackson, MS WFO? I noticed your picture was taken there, so I was just curious. BTW, I have no reason to believe you aren't who you say you are. Your posts are too intelligent and accurate to be an imposter. Keep up the good work!

Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. Picture was taken at the high water mark sign in downtown Jackson when I was on an orientation trip. FYI... the record high water for Jackson, MS, is from the 1979 Easter Flood on the Pearl River.

People can think what they want... they can find me through public channels if they really wanted to verify my existence. And like I mentioned in the other comment thread, I think even my salary and work email are considered public, so people can find out and confirm all sorts things if they really wanted to.

Also a good time to note again while talking about this that although I am an NWS employee and my work experience combines with my education background to help form my opinions, they are not necessarily the opinions of NOAA/NWS and I don't speak on behalf of them. All that scientific integrity stuff, ya know.