Violent tornado rampage in 11 states leaves 31 dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 17:40 (GMT)

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A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection yesterday, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed at least 31. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 13 and 14 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one in Alabama. The scale of the outbreak was truly exceptional, with a preliminary total of 81 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the massive storm that spawned yesterday's tornado outbreak, taken at 4:55 pm EST March 2, 2012. NASA has an impressive satellite animation of the storm. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. If damage surveys reveal that these thunderstorms did indeed spawn tornadoes, they will set the record for fastest-moving tornadoes in recorded history. The record for the fastest moving tornado is 73 mph, set in 1925 for the great Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time. Here's the text from one of the tornado warnings yesterday, featuring a storm moving at 85 mph:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
439 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...
JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EST...

* AT 434 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.


Video 1. Short video the violent tornado that devastated West Liberty, Kentucky.


Figure 2. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado killed at least 3 people, and devastated the downtown area.

Second largest tornado outbreak so early in the year?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 81 preliminary tornado reports from yesterday's outbreak as of noon today. These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but more delayed reports will likely come in today, and the total number of tornadoes from the outbreak will probably be in the 80 to 90 range. This would put the March 2, 2012 in 2nd or 3rd place for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five 2-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
March 2, 2012: 81 tornadoes, 31 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the 5-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 may eclipse the late January 1999 tornado outbreak as the most prolific 5-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 3. Damage from the Salyersville, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012. Damage characteristic of at least EF-3 intensity occurred. Image credit: Jon Pelton, via the NWS Jackson, KY.


Figure 4. Radar image of the Salyersville, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo of a tornado.

Slight risk of severe weather today over the Southeast U.S.
The storm system that spawned yesterday's severe weather has pushed northwards into Canada, but the trailing cold front is still spawning severe weather over Northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and surrounding states. Three tornadoes have touched down this morning in Southwest Georgia and northern Florida, causing damage but no reported injuries. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, two steps down from the "High Risk" forecast for Kentucky yesterday. SPC issues "High Risk" forecasts just 3 - 5 times per year, typically. Looking at the long range weather maps, I don't see any storm systems capable of causing major tornado outbreaks coming during the next 7 - 10 days. You can use our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow today's storms.


Figure 5. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome! My heartfelt sympathies and prayers go to all those affected by yesterday's destruction.

I'll be back Monday with much more information on the tornado outbreak.

Jeff Masters

Hail (rds817)
Mostly quarter size
Hail
Warning Warning Warning! (dixiedaughter)
It has been an exciting night and is expected to get worse between 2-6 AM.
Warning Warning Warning!
After the Storm (Collie)
After a day of tornado warnings, supercells, hail and high winds... it was nice to see a rainbow.
After the Storm
Friday Mount Juliet Hail 3 (c3tn)
Hail from storm moving through the Mount Juliet, TN area Friday afternoon.
Friday Mount Juliet Hail 3

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625. JRRP
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 22:15 (GMT)
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5085
624. interstatelover7165
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 20:47 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
SOME OLD TORNADO VIDEOS...









I saw the last video on a episode of
either FFN Or SS on TWC.
Member Since: 18.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
623. sunlinepr
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 16:04 (GMT)
SOME OLD TORNADO VIDEOS...









Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9656
622. SPLbeater
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 15:35 (GMT)
hewo all.

a bit late getting here, had to get rid of all that STUPID SCHOOLWORK!!!

lol
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
621. aspectre
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 15:16 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
620. TampaSpin
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 14:30 (GMT)



I captured this RADAR Imagery as it was Nearing Jasper, Indiana.......Called my Brother at his Manufacturing Plant and he got all his employees in a secure location. He went outside just for a moment to look and could see this Funnel Cloud Approaching. They was lucky is stayed a funnel cause this was the same Funnel that eventually hit the Marysville Town that was wiped out.....HE feels very lucky!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
619. TampaSpin
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 14:20 (GMT)
Looks like a Surface Low want to develop in the GOM in about 7 days on the GFS Model this morning.....GOOD MORNING EVERYONE


Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
618. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:52 (GMT)
yeah, they probably f**ed it up with that low

Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
617. trHUrrIXC5MMX
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Quoting Astrophysics:
I think this should have definitely been classified, at least called a tropical depression or a weak tropical cyclone. Looked like it might have had sustained winds near 50km/hr to maybe 60km/hr from wind observations in the area. It also had a closed surface low with good structure as you have pointed out in those visible images. Looks like the storm has weakened a bit but might strengthen as it pulls away from the coast.



you are right...
Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
616. CybrTeddy
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:43 (GMT)
GFS continues on the 06z to spin up what appears to be a sub-tropical cyclone, now by 288 hours.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
615. GeorgiaStormz
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:41 (GMT)
From NWS Peachtree City GA forecast discussion:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MOVING THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER S OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. MODELS SIMILAR MOVING
THE FRONT S OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CREATING COLD AIR DAMNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND MOST LIKELY NON EXISTENT BY
DAYS END. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE TN
VALLEY OR SO ON SUNDAY WITH THE DAMNED AIRMASS MOSTLY STILL IN
PLACE.



Somebody needs to learn how to spell...
Member Since: 11.02.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9462
614. StormTracker2K
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Post# 613 that could be sooner like later this week as the models really don'y know what to do with the evelution of a potential cut off low. Forecast is really hard to pin later this week. Last week we knew a week out what was coming this week we have no clue because the models are differnet on every run nothing consistant yet.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
613. GeorgiaStormz
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting Ameister12:
More incredible videos of the Henryville tornado. I can not stop watching videos of this tornado.



i played the worm game on this :)

next chance of good severe weather looks to be 7 to 8 days out.
Member Since: 11.02.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9462
612. ncstorm
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:31 (GMT)
According to GMA this morning, 79 tornados were confirmed, largest number in March in history. Unfortunately, I just think its going to get worse before getting better.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13475
611. StormTracker2K
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Good Morning! What a storm rolled thru Saturday Night with frequent Lightning, heavy rains and 60 mph winds which did knock over some trees in my area but no wx warning. I guess maybe because of the Tampa radar being out. The worst damage was from The Villages over to Daytona Beach. Talk about the NWS dropping the ball around here only one warning issued but that was after just west of Daytona Beach a 64 mph wind gust was reported.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
610. SouthDadeFish
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Quoting wxmojo:
You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 



Weather does follow a set of governing equations. What you are noticing is just half of a longwave trough. There are multiple longwave troughs set up over the globe. These longwaves are called Rossby Waves. The rest of that trough is easily seen here in this 300 mb (upper troposphere) image:



Notice how the western half of that wave dips back NW into SW Canada. It just that the eastern side has visible clouds do to processes Tom Taylor already described. The more you study the atmosphere (as I am currently doing now), you will see how waves dominate the way the atmosphere works. As a result you may sometimes notice many geometric features in satellite imagery.
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
609. Neapolitan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:07 (GMT)
Confirmed EF3 Tornadoes in Eastern Kentucky Strongest Ever Observed in At Least 3 Counties

The National Weather Service confirmed late this afternoon that the tornado yesterday in Menifee and Morgan Counties was rated EF3. The tornado at Salyersville in Magoffin County was also an EF3. According to the National Climatic Data Center database of storm reports, these are the first EF3 or higher tornadoes ever reported in these 3 counties since official records began in 1950. In fact, only 1 tornado as strong as F1, on 06/02/1990, has been reported in Menifee County. The strongest previous tornado in Morgan County was an F2 on 09/29/1972. Magoffin County has had no previous tornadoes as strong as F1 and only 1 F0.
Tornado

Number of tornadoes F2/EF2 or higher intensity by county in eastern Kentucky, 1950-2011, from NWS (Click to enlarge)

Capital Climate Article...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13292
608. ncstorm
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 13:05 (GMT)
GM! I see the GFS is still initializing tropical development later on this month.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13475
607. JNCali
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 12:56 (GMT)
Great blog through the weekend everyone.. so sad for all the destruction..
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
606. Neapolitan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.
The meeting moves around from year to year, both geographically and on the calendar. This year's meeting will be held April 11-15 in Ponte Vedra Beach (near Jacksonville). You can see the agenda here. (Note that reading the various seasonal reports from each participating country can often give you a good idea of any names for which retirement may be requested. A casual glance suggests that Irene is 2011's only likely candidate.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13292
605. Astrophysics
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 12:22 (GMT)
I think this should have definitely been classified, at least called a tropical depression or a weak tropical cyclone. Looked like it might have had sustained winds near 50km/hr to maybe 60km/hr from wind observations in the area. It also had a closed surface low with good structure as you have pointed out in those visible images. Looks like the storm has weakened a bit but might strengthen as it pulls away from the coast.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Look at the structure of this Tropical Low off the coast of SE Queensland.




Loop
Member Since: 10.06.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
604. Tropicsweatherpr
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 12:12 (GMT)
The Aussie ENSO model POAMA updated today and is in the warm neutral camp by August,September and October.

Member Since: 29.04.2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13328
603. JrWeathermanFL
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 11:56 (GMT)
I hope that this year, we have 20 Cat5 hurricanes that all go out to sea and affect no one :)
I want an active year but not for the U.S.

Member Since: 19.07.2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1640
602. LargoFl
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 11:53 (GMT)
Quoting pcbhere:
Good Morning! After the devastating tornados two days ago, it snowed 5 inches here in Louisville this morning. It started about 9 last night, and snowed steadily until around 3 this morning. I have never seen such huge snowflakes! The high for Wednesday and Thursday is suppose to be 65.
good morning, Im glad to see the temps will be warming for you folks, so many i assume still dont have power for heat etc, prayers for all still suffering so greatly over there. in the 40's here this morning in tampa bay area but going up to 70 later on, good luck to you all over there and our prayers are with you
Member Since: 6.08.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33430
601. OracleDeAtlantis
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 11:22 (GMT)
While we were battling tornadoes, in the UK they were battling something else.

Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
600. pcbhere
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 11:19 (GMT)
Good Morning! After the devastating tornados two days ago, it snowed 5 inches here in Louisville this morning. It started about 9 last night, and snowed steadily until around 3 this morning. I have never seen such huge snowflakes! The high for Wednesday and Thursday is suppose to be 65.
Member Since: 17.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
599. AussieStorm
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 06:38 (GMT)
Look at the structure of this Tropical Low off the coast of SE Queensland.




Loop
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
598. AussieStorm
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 06:35 (GMT)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I got a random question about anticyclonic tornadoes.



They are very rare in the northern hemisphere temperate zone. How common is it in the deep tropics for a waterspout to rotate anticylonically, say within 5 degrees of the equator?


Lingbi County in East China's Anhui Province

Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
597. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 06:13 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.


Lee absolutely should NOT be. The flooding in the northeast was done after it became extratropical.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
596. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:54 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
Yellowstone seismic page..


Yikes... On that scary not, good night everyone....
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
595. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:52 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seems we're both wrong.

Okay, spring is the typical period.

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
594. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:46 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:

I admit, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Speaking of which, those TCRs I did last year? Gonna do them after the dissipation of each storm, rather than wait until winter to cram it on my already busy workload.

That's a fantastic idea. The 19 TCR's from last year are still stuck on my plate, and I'm just kinda pushing them around with a fork. Just have been so busy with school.
My current forecast is already present:
14 Named storms
7 hurricanes
4 Intense

The el niño might be upon us by peak, so my numbers are kinda slimmer than I was thinking. It's been in the 80's and even 90's down here, so that gulf will be ready by June. US Gulf, BEWARE...
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
593. Patrap
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:44 (GMT)
Yellowstone seismic page..

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
592. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:42 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Are you sure? I vaguely remember that last year it was the end of February when the announced Igor and Tomas were being retired and excluded from the naming list.


Seems we're both wrong.

Okay, spring is the typical period.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
591. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:41 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:

April is the typical month.

Are you sure? I vaguely remember that last year it was the end of February when the announced Igor and Tomas were being retired and excluded from the naming list.
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
590. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:39 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
One month til the CSU preseason forecast, I'll be back for good in May when the African tropical wave watch begins. Less than 3 months away from the 2012 HURRICANE SEASON. Over halfway through the offseason, thank God. I've missed this place and all the tropical chatter.
I admit, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Speaking of which, those TCRs I did last year? Gonna do them after the dissipation of each storm, rather than wait until winter to cram it on my already busy workload. I might update them as I get new information, but you know what I mean.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
589. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:37 (GMT)
One month til the CSU preseason forecast, I'll be back for good in May when the African tropical wave watch begins. Less than 3 months away from the 2012 HURRICANE SEASON. Over halfway through the offseason, thank God. I've missed this place and all the tropical chatter.
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
588. TomTaylor
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:36 (GMT)
Quoting wxmojo:

Thank you for your response.
No, no. I am not saying they are all alike.  When I see this feature, it is generally in the IR signature, not cloud cover. Visible cloud cover is indeed much more ragged and irregular. Was what I pointed out in the image a poor observation? It seemed to me to be an accurate observation meeting the context of the question. I will pay careful note to my future observations and perhaps submit a more definitive description of my question when the opportunity presents itself. 
well I couldn't tell if you were trolling or not so I came on a little hard at first. I should give you the benefits of the doubt though. No it wasn't really a poor observation, fronts exhibit general characteristics like this.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
587. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:34 (GMT)

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Weren't they suppose to retire 2011 storms back last month?
I decided to pop up out of the blue, because I remembered the we're suppose to have the worldwide tropical cyclone naming convention back last month, I thought. I have no clue I guess, but that's what I thought I had remembered.
April is the typical month.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
586. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:32 (GMT)

Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, I doubt the NHC would classify that if it was on their surface analysis map.
Well they classified Jose. :/
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
585. HurricaneDean07
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:30 (GMT)
Weren't they suppose to retire 2011 storms back last month?
I decided to pop up out of the blue, because I remembered the we're suppose to have the worldwide tropical cyclone naming convention back last month, I thought. I have no clue I guess, but that's what I thought I had remembered.
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
584. wxmojo
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:29 (GMT)

Quoting TomTaylor:
So you are saying they are all alike because they have a width of anywhere from 200 to 300 miles?


You are saying the weather you have observed is too constant and not as random or chaotic as some describe, yet in order for you to describe it as ordinary and constant you are using very general terms. I'd have to say that's a pretty poor observation on your part. Those bands of clouds you are observing don't always show up, and when they do they very greatly in width, vertical height in the atmosphere, length, intensity, etc, etc.

Anyway, if you are wondering why those bands exist and tend to exhibit a width of a few hundred miles across, it's due to the front dipping down into moister tropical regions and pulling up a moisture plume along, and just ahead of, the advancing front. Air converges at the low levels along the front, drawing in moisture from the low levels, and upper level divergence creates vertical instability which allows moisture to rise and condense to form clouds. These clouds make up the bands you are seeing.
Thank you for your response.
No, no. I am not saying they are all alike.  When I see this feature, it is generally in the IR signature, not cloud cover. Visible cloud cover is indeed much more ragged and irregular. Was what I pointed out in the image a poor observation? It seemed to me to be an accurate observation meeting the context of the question. I will pay careful note to my future observations and perhaps submit a more definitive description of my question when the opportunity presents itself. 
Member Since: 4.03.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
583. aspectre
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:25 (GMT)
"The tornado that devastated southern Indiana...may have shared some deadly twists with...The Joplin tornado, which...was distinguished by a rare multiple-vortex structure. In such storms, the center of the wind funnel spawns two to seven smaller twisters, or subvortices, that circulate around the edge of the cloud at speeds that can range up to 100 mph faster than the winds in the main funnel. The subvortices typically last less than a minute each...."
"...Storm-chaser Skip Talbot's photo of the Henryville tornado...

...confirms that it had a multiple-vortex structure...[And] a video from the Associated Press...that clearly shows the funnel cloud spawning subvortices"
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
582. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:23 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
581. TomTaylor
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:17 (GMT)
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, the isobars seem too broad, for one thing.
Yeah, I doubt the NHC would classify that if it was on their surface analysis map.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
580. TomTaylor
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:14 (GMT)
Quoting wxmojo:
You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 



So you are saying they are all alike because they have a width of anywhere from 200 to 300 miles?


You are saying the weather you have observed is too constant and not as random or chaotic as some describe, yet in order for you to describe it as ordinary and constant you are using very general terms. I'd have to say that's a pretty poor observation on your part. Those bands of clouds you are observing don't always show up, and when they do they very greatly in width, vertical height in the atmosphere, length, intensity, etc, etc.

Anyway, if you are wondering why those bands exist and tend to exhibit a width of a few hundred miles across, it's due to the front dipping down into moister tropical regions and pulling up a moisture plume along, and just ahead of, the advancing front. Air converges at the low levels along the front, drawing in moisture from the low levels, and upper level divergence creates vertical instability which allows moisture to rise and condense to form clouds. These clouds make up the bands you are seeing.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
579. nofailsafe
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:13 (GMT)
Quoting TomTaylor:
The NOGAPS turns every wave into a monster?

From what I remember last year it blew up very few African waves. The grid resolution of the NOGAPS is very poor so it is hard for it to pick up on fine details like a storm bombing out.

Maybe we are just interpreting the model runs differently...I do remember a lot of people saying the NOGAPS was developing a wave when really all it displayed was a rain blob and a closed isobar. For example, people would say the NOGAPS developed three storms on this image:




One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.


That lack of resolution probably contributes a great deal to the frequent phantom waves. I remember last year and the year before NOGAPS would ramp some storms up pretty well in one run but would calm down in the next. Funny initialization maybe.
Member Since: 18.06.2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 928
578. wxmojo
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:06 (GMT)

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Weather follows physical and geometric laws.
Sure, I would wholeheartedly agree that weather follows physical laws. But what geometric laws do weather follow? 
There seems to be some geophysical modelers in this group. Are geometric law correlations built into weather simulations?
Member Since: 4.03.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
577. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 05:01 (GMT)

Quoting TomTaylor:





One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.
Well, the isobars seem too broad, for one thing.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135
576. TomTaylor
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 04:56 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, it constantly turns every tropical wave in the Atlantic into a monster. It also develops random ghost systems that never materialize.

Same with Severe Weather, always blows it up.
The NOGAPS turns every wave into a monster?

From what I remember last year it blew up very few African waves. The grid resolution of the NOGAPS is very poor so it is hard for it to pick up on fine details like a storm bombing out.

Maybe we are just interpreting the model runs differently...I do remember a lot of people saying the NOGAPS was developing a wave when really all it displayed was a rain blob and a closed isobar. For example, people would say the NOGAPS developed three storms on this image:




One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
575. KoritheMan
5. maaliskuuta 2012 klo 04:55 (GMT)

Quoting KoritheMan:

Not all troughs are alike. Amplitude and wavelength is important.
Oh wait, I should've realized who I was talking to. Still waiting on you to back up yesterday's claim.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19135

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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