Wunderground launches BestForecast; Giovanna kills ten in Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15. helmikuuta 2012 klo 16:41 (GMT)

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Weather Underground's meteorologists have spent over five years developing and testing a powerful forecasting system called BestForecast, which has been used to provide all of our forecasts for non-U.S. locations for the past several years. After some final improvements made in the past year, the forecasts from BestForecast have become competitive with forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) over much of the U.S. As of today, BestForecast forecasts are the default on the site. What's cool about BestForecast is that we can make its forecasts specific for any site that collects weather data. We gather several years of weather data from a site and optimize the forecast to suit the unique microclimate of a particular station. Thus, "backyard meteorologists" that own and maintain one of the more than 22,000 personal weather stations that record and send live weather conditions to Weather Underground will now have a forecast specifically generated for their own backyard. BestForecast also gives the expected precipitation amounts (in inches), and provides ten days of forecast information, instead of the seven days provided by the National Weather Service.

Users can evaluate the reliability of these forecasts themselves and get a second opinion by switching back to the National Weather Service forecasts that were previously published. In some areas, the National Weather Service will out-perform BestForecast, so play around with using both, and see what works the best for your location. Web site visitors can switch between best forecast and NWS forecasts using the switch "BestForecast" ON|OFF at the top of the forecast page. To create transparency in our forecasts, wunderground.com will publish the recent accuracy of its temperature forecasts over the past 20 days for every location, alongside the accuracy of the NWS. The accuracy is given in terms of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), in degrees Centigrade. A lower RMSE is better. The "MaxT" number is the verification of the daily high temperature forecasts, while the "Average" number is for the hour-by-hour forecasts.

A video demonstration of BestForecast is available on the wunderground.com About Our Data page.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 10:45 UTC Wednesday February 15, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Note the extensive plume of runoff and sediment stirred up by the storm flowing southwards along the east coast of Madagascar. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna kills ten in Madagascar
At least ten people were killed by Tropical Cyclone Giovanna in Madagascar, which hit the island nation as a powerful Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC Monday night. An estimated 600,000 people lived in areas that received hurricane-force winds, but the eyewall of the storm missed the capital of Antananarivo, which received peak winds of 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Many remote areas that were affected by the storm have not been heard from yet, so the full extent of Giovanna's damage is not yet known. Giovanna is currently in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and is slowly intensifying. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models conflict, with the ECMWF model predicting the storm will swing around and pass very close to the southern tip of Madagascar next week, and the GFS model predicting landfall in Mozambique this weekend. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar next week.

Jeff Masters

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264. jrweatherman
23. helmikuuta 2012 klo 18:19 (GMT)
Got my ashes yesterday and very proud to have them displayed on my forehead. It is a joke the the burning of palms to create the ashes is contributing to GW is an absolute joke.
Member Since: 17.05.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 650
263. SPLbeater
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
With my usual bad luck, this is all south of my area in GA but from the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook:

People really need to watch this and see what happens, it could be interesting. If discrete cells form ahead of the main line, we could have some storms similar to the April 14-16,2011 Tornado Outbreak.


i am just inside the 15% line up in the Piedmont of NC
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
262. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:28 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
261. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:27 (GMT)
Areas with 10,000 Bq/m² of radioactivity considered "highly contaminated" by study — Over 30,000 square kilometers in Japan exceed level, 8% of nation

Published: February 16th, 2012 at 8:34 am ET By ENENews

Japan’s science ministry says 8 per cent of the country’s surface area has been contaminated by radiation from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.
It says more than 30,000 square kilometres of the country has been blanketed by radioactive caesium.
The ministry says most of the contamination was caused by four large plumes of radiation spewed out by the Fukushima nuclear plant in the first two weeks after meltdowns.
The government says some of the radioactive material fell with rain and snow, leaving the affected areas with accumulations of more than 10,000 becquerels of caesium per square metre. [...]
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
260. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
259. islander101010
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


invest west of Peru... hmm

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1012 MB AT 09S 87W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT OF CENTER
good surf for costa rica coming
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
258. nfloridandr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:14 (GMT)
last time there were discussions about a "rare" severe weather event we had tornado pass very near our home. it was so unusual you could hear the jet (roar) overhead for over an hour before the storms finally rolled in.
Member Since: 1.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
257. RitaEvac
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:10 (GMT)
Heavy rain event to take place near TX and LA coasts and offshore. Models pegging at some 4 inches somewhere. Pacific flow is in full throttle

Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
256. GeorgiaStormz
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 15:06 (GMT)
With my usual bad luck, this is all south of my area in GA but from the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook:

People really need to watch this and see what happens, it could be interesting. If discrete cells form ahead of the main line, we could have some storms similar to the April 14-16,2011 Tornado Outbreak.
Member Since: 11.02.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
255. LargoFl
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Quoting nfloridandr:
excerpt from nws tallahassee

On Saturday, however, the ingredients appear to be coming together
for possibly the most widespread and significant Severe Weather Event
of the season thus far for Southeast Alabama, Southwest and South
Central Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle! With 0-6km
Bulk Shear Values quite possibly exceeding 80 kts, 0-3km Bulk Shears
of 50 to 60 kts, along with an 850 mb jet in excess of 50 kts,
combined with vigorous 0-1 km Helicities between 300-500 m^2/s^2,
very strong diffluent flow aloft, a rapidly deepening Sfc Low which
the models keep trending further and further to our West, Surface
Dewpoints rising into the mid 60s which could result in ML Capes
nearing 500 J/KG. This is expected to set the stage for the
development of a Large MCS with the distinct possibility of
Vigorous forerunning Supercells capable of producing Significant
Dangerous Tornadoes, as well as possible widespread straight line
wind damage. In summary, the above mentioned severe weather
parameters are very high in this instance, making this a potential
event of quite rare proportions.

It should be noted, however, that this event is still a few days
away, so the timing intensity, and overall threat level could change
before Saturday, but ALL interests in our CWA should keep abreast of
the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in
Tallahassee, FL and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, and
be prepared to take quick and decisive action if needed as this
could be a very rare event for our region.
ty for posting this, a very real dangerous event is beginning to form, as the models are slowing coming together, people need to start paying attention to whats forming in the days to come,even here in the tampa bay area the local weather guy said to watch for potential severe storms sat night and sunday morning, i hope That changes for us, but we can use any rain it can give us. had I-75 closed yesterday because of brush fires, we are very dry
Member Since: 6.08.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33350
254. Tropicsweatherpr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:49 (GMT)
The TCHP is warming in the Western Caribbean.

Member Since: 29.04.2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13292
253. bluheelrtx
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:


If you don't trust PWSs choose your closest airport or NWS...if you don't trust that data why bother?


I was just about to suggest that. There are a number of lousy weather stations in my area, so I set my preferred stations to airports only. That was before the Best Forecast thing came out, but when it did, the accuracy was much better. I toggled back and forth for a couple of weeks, then just left it on Best.
Member Since: 8.11.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 222
252. nfloridandr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:29 (GMT)
excerpt from nws tallahassee

On Saturday, however, the ingredients appear to be coming together
for possibly the most widespread and significant Severe Weather Event
of the season thus far for Southeast Alabama, Southwest and South
Central Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle! With 0-6km
Bulk Shear Values quite possibly exceeding 80 kts, 0-3km Bulk Shears
of 50 to 60 kts, along with an 850 mb jet in excess of 50 kts,
combined with vigorous 0-1 km Helicities between 300-500 m^2/s^2,
very strong diffluent flow aloft, a rapidly deepening Sfc Low which
the models keep trending further and further to our West, Surface
Dewpoints rising into the mid 60s which could result in ML Capes
nearing 500 J/KG. This is expected to set the stage for the
development of a Large MCS with the distinct possibility of
Vigorous forerunning Supercells capable of producing Significant
Dangerous Tornadoes, as well as possible widespread straight line
wind damage. In summary, the above mentioned severe weather
parameters are very high in this instance, making this a potential
event of quite rare proportions.

It should be noted, however, that this event is still a few days
away, so the timing intensity, and overall threat level could change
before Saturday, but ALL interests in our CWA should keep abreast of
the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in
Tallahassee, FL and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, and
be prepared to take quick and decisive action if needed as this
could be a very rare event for our region.
Member Since: 1.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
251. uncwhurricane85
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:


i havent looked at normal SST for this time of year, but that seems abnormally warm, specially the gulf and just off the southeast coast near the GS!!??
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
250. RitaEvac
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
249. hydrus
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
What about some Krakatau watching?

As crazy as watching a volcano with Krakatows history sounds...This brotha would love to do it..pfft
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
248. WxGeekVA
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 14:17 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

^ Overreaction.

Let me guess, the blue line comes through my area AFTER the precipitation ends, right?


This year, 6 inches is a monster snowstorm for me. I think about a foot right now is possible, but things can change... And yeah, you miss out, sorry.
Member Since: 3.09.2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
247. MTWX
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:54 (GMT)
Another segment of the never ending disaster... Link
Member Since: 20.07.2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1391
246. JRRP
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:52 (GMT)

Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5079
245. Patrap
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:48 (GMT)
50th Anniversary of Orbital Flight: NASA

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
244. Patrap
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:44 (GMT)
Perfect Parade weather in NOLA tonight.

Krewe of Muses



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
243. uncwhurricane85
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:39 (GMT)
Quoting LargoFl:
the weatherguys are beginning to think this will be a huge waether maker for you folks up there, classic nor'easter in fact, be careful up there


GOOOD we have only had 1.5 inches of snow...these past few winters have spoiled us in the snow department..I WANT MORE like 2010/2011 snow!!!
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
242. washingtonian115
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!
>.>...
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
241. AussieStorm
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:45 (GMT)
CONUS 12Z





Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
240. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!

^ Overreaction.

Let me guess, the blue line comes through my area AFTER the precipitation ends, right?
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
239. TropicalAnalystwx13
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:39 (GMT)
Uh-oh...30% on Day 3.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CONCERNING SHORT
WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF
STRONGER FLOW THAT PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU ON FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CURRENTLY
PRESENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF
90 KTS.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT
STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE WEST...SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER...OR CLUSTERS...AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES...WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC
THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST
AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE
SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT...OR
REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..KERR.. 02/16/2012
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
238. AussieStorm
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Tropical Depression 13 (Indian Ocean)



Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
237. AussieStorm
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna.



Click Thumbnail for larger image.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
236. trHUrrIXC5MMX
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:25 (GMT)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!


snow? why does the weather channel say a big rainstorm?
Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
235. AussieStorm
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:12 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.



Click Thumbnail for larger image.



Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
234. LargoFl
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 12:00 (GMT)
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


please let this happen!!!!!!!! i want SNOWWWWWW!!
the weatherguys are beginning to think this will be a huge waether maker for you folks up there, classic nor'easter in fact, be careful up there
Member Since: 6.08.2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33350
233. WxGeekVA
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 11:48 (GMT)


GFS says Good morning WXGeekVA, here's a monster snowstorm for you!
Member Since: 3.09.2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
232. TampaSpin
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 07:55 (GMT)


Looks like a nice storm will form.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 07:52 (GMT)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #30
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (995 hPa) located at 23.5S 176.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible/enhanced infrared imagery with animation.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Low level circulation center partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate to high. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into an area of high shear. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 60 nautical miles from edge of deep convection, yields DT=2.0, PT=2.5 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on DT but due to final Dvorak constraint final Dvorak would be 2.5 as past 6 hour Final Dvorak was 3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 24.6S 176.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 25.6S 175.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43658
230. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 07:42 (GMT)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 15.0S 81.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 80.7E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 79.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.7S 76.2E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.3S 71.0E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Intensity estimate at 0000 AM UTC has been corrected. Latest ascat pass clearly shows near gale to locally gale force winds in the southern semi-circle (but not in the northern semi-circle). As an upper level trough is located to the southwest of the system, a northwesterly constraint is evident with a low level circulation center located to the northwestern edge of the cloud mass.

No major changes in the forecast philosophy, but a lower than usual confidence for the intensity forecast with such a small system:

No feeding equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Monsoon inflow should improve slightly at 48 hours.

System is expected to be less or more under the north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge, trough the forecast period.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43658
229. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 07:15 (GMT)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.0S 41.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.4S 41.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.1S 42.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.6S 43.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has organized on a 0.8ao log 10 curved band pattern during the last 6 hours.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for the deepening of the system within the next 3 days. Indeed, oceanic heat content is sufficient, low level feeding is good equatorward and is progressively improving poleward, upper level wind shear is weak below the upper ridge axis and two good outflow channels are expected to develop north and south of the system. On Sunday and after, system should begin to weaken under the strengthening of the upper level constraint.

System is forecast to move slowly generally southward for the next 48 to 60 hours under the influence of opposite steering flows in mid-troposphere (a ridge in its west and another one in its east). Beyond, although there are still some spread amongst the various guidance, system should track eastwards, under the probable influence in the mid-troposphere ridge that rebuilt north of the system.

Most of the members of the last ensemble forecast of the ECMWF (15FEB/1200 PM UTC run) are now in agreement with the recurvement eastward in the direction of the south of Madagascar and only a few members (less than 5 amongst the 51) show a westwards motion towards the Mozambique coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43658
228. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 05:40 (GMT)
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, I can't find anything on it.

On the 7th a power station near St. Petersburg had an unrelated explosion.

Besides the article you quoted, there is no mention of it. I was 7 or 8 pages deep on Google, not one peep from anyone, anywhere in government or media; not even a citizen or someone mentioning it on a forum or blog.


My bad.... seems like fiction....

It's interesting that the comment by Beell mentioning Seversk; the info in Wikipedia says;

Seversk - Secret city that was known as Tomsk-7

Seversk is the site of the Siberian Group of Chemical Enterprises, founded in 1954. It comprises several nuclear reactors and chemical plants for separation, enrichment, and reprocessing of uranium and plutonium. Following an agreement in March 2003 between Russia and the United States to shut down Russia's three remaining plutonium-producing reactors, two of the three plutonium producing reactors (the two that are sited at Seversk) have now been shut down.[5][6]

Nuclear warheads are produced and stored on the premises. One of the most serious nuclear accidents at SGCE occurred on 6 April 1993, when a tank containing a highly radioactive solution exploded.

Tomsk-7 explosion

There was a nuclear accident at the Tomsk-7 Reprocessing Complex on April 6, 1993, when a tank exploded while being cleaned with nitric acid. The explosion released a cloud of radioactive gas. TIME magazine has identified the Tomsk-7 explosion as one of the 10 world's "worst nuclear disasters".[8]
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
227. RTSplayer
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 05:24 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very true... checking for cross references if it is not Science fiction...


Unfortunately, I can't find anything on it.

On the 7th a power station near St. Petersburg had an unrelated explosion.

Besides the article you quoted, there is no mention of it. I was 7 or 8 pages deep on Google, not one peep from anyone, anywhere in government or media; not even a citizen or someone mentioning it on a forum or blog.
Member Since: 25.01.2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
226. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 05:17 (GMT)
Quoting RTSplayer:


If it was above ground and as big as the article claims, then wouldn't our infrared weather satellites and visible satellites have detected both the fireball and the smoke?

If it was a meteor, someone had to see the fireball on entry. Anything big enough to make a kiloton class explosion would be lighting up the entire sky long before it made impact or air burst.

If it was a nuclear bomb under ground, why would the Russians test detonate a kiloton class bomb in 2012, after decades of supposedly downsizing nuclear arsenals?


Very true... checking for cross references if it is not Science fiction...
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
225. RTSplayer
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 05:15 (GMT)
Quoting beell:
Quoting sunlinepr:
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia...


About 240 kilometers NW of Belovo

Seversk


If it was above ground and as big as the article claims, then wouldn't our infrared weather satellites and visible satellites have detected both the fireball and the smoke?

If it was a meteor, someone had to see the fireball on entry. Anything big enough to make a kiloton class explosion would be lighting up the entire sky long before it made impact or air burst.

If it was a nuclear bomb under ground, why would the Russians test detonate a kiloton class bomb in 2012, after decades of supposedly downsizing nuclear arsenals? Particularly since they've had multi-megaton bombs for half a century.


?
Member Since: 25.01.2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1501
224. uncwhurricane85
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 05:04 (GMT)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhhhhhhh.


please let this happen!!!!!!!! i want SNOWWWWWW!!
Member Since: 4.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 570
223. beell
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:42 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
An unusually powerful explosions in Siberia, Russia at February 2012 -are the repetition of the Tunguska explosion in 1908?
Wednesday, 15 February 2012 15:37

As reported the Geophysical Service of Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences- two unusually powerful explosions occurred in the last few days in the south of Western Siberia, a few dozen kilometers of the town of Belovo, Kemerovo Region, Russia...


About 240 kilometers NW of Belovo

Seversk
Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
222. washingtonian115
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:41 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


90 hrs 0z GFS.

Rejoice GEEK
Ahhhhhhhh.
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
221. VAbeachhurricanes
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:29 (GMT)


90 hrs 0z GFS.

Rejoice GEEK
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
220. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:28 (GMT)
here ya go hades

XX/INV/XXE
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
219. washingtonian115
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:16 (GMT)
HA!.I knew people would return when I was off...And it seems the models are flip flopping all over the place.... again...Please let it be rain...
Member Since: 14.08.2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
218. sunlinepr
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:08 (GMT)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Let me end this: Whenever Chuck Norris allows it.



Ok....Let's end this fighting....

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
217. Tazmanian
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:08 (GMT)
we may have a EL Nino froming

Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
216. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:08 (GMT)


invest west of Peru... hmm

LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1012 MB AT 09S 87W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E QUADRANT OF CENTER
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43658
215. Skyepony (Mod)
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 04:06 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:
Well the Bestforcast was way off for me today temperpature wise, it forecast 77 and we got to 69, so not a good start really......back to the drawing board ?


Looking at the stats for the last 20 days at your location~ Orange Park, FL...WU barely out-preformed NWS for both high temp & average.

The quality of the forecasted high temperature for this day is good. MaxT RMSE [2.14], Average RMSE [1.97]
The National Weather Service forecast quality is good. MaxT RMSE [2.38], Average RMSE [2.00]
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36075
214. SPLbeater
16. helmikuuta 2012 klo 03:59 (GMT)
night all
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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