Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys
Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.
What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?
A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."
Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I love it!!!
Interior Alaska just can't get a break, it seems; after a record or near-record cold January, now an invasion of unseasonable warmth:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
620 PM AKST SUN FEB 5 2012
...A WARM-UP WILL PRODUCE ICY ROADS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
AFTER A RECORD COLD JANUARY...MANY AREAS NOW HAVE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ABOVE ARE COMMON...AND IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS AND WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND
TEMPERATURE ARE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARMER AIR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLD SOAKED GROUND WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF ICE
AND MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.
Here is my question to you, do you make lemon squares too?
Guess since your from the keys, she could of made Lime squares!
That sound yummy too!
You causing trouble AGAIN,,,,LOL,,,,,hey brother! Classy Superbowl except for the half time.
Try the dark chocolate dipped frozen Key Lime Pie on a stick. Mmmmmmmm!
Tim, I was stuck in a trailer from 1100 to 0130 this morning, didn't get to see much!
Things went very well as far as public safety concerns!
LOL....i knew it was best to keep you LOCKED UP...
Activity has increased along the ConUs West Coast! I am expecting a fairly larger one to be coming soon. Just my opinion tho!!!
i found that possible second storm first, its mine! lol
here is NOGAPS loop where i seen it...
Link
:D Might be frontal attached..who knows as of now :D
shows up forming off of S Texas at hour 72...and the site might come up sayin "certificate not trusted" but just continue anyways, iz nothin
"...there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events."
NOPE.....You have apparently not been reading my website....LOL Nice job tho.
then lets split da credit lol
yes...yes it is.
any chance that this rare tropical activity sneaks up the mid atlantic to meet some cold air and cause a significant snow storm?
Here:
Melt season is going to get uuugly if there isn't some positive wobble between now and March.
Starting with 250K less extent isn't going to be a good thing in terms of positive albedo feedback.
There can be a lot of fluctuation in these curves, so maybe it doesn't mean anything, or maybe it's a harbinger of a bad melt season.
The trend in the past has been that the record low mininum deviates from the average minimum by a factor of 2.5 times as much as the record low maximum deviated from the average maximum.
So for example, if 2012 ends up breaking the record low maximum by say, 200k, then it should be possible for breaking the record low minimum by a margin of as much as 500k.
Some parts of the ice aren't that far from last year's september minimums!
We hardly knew ye....
It IS earthquake weather today!
Seems about right.
In the past 10 years there's been a mega-quake in every quadrant of the ring of Fire except the N. American quadrant, so I guess it seems logical that's where the most stress should be.
In order to dissipate as much energy as an 8.8 quake "slowly" in a less destructive manner, you'd need a 6.0 quake to happen every day for 45 years.
mm may come up the eastern seaboard(MAYBE) n drop some rain, i wouldnt be thinking of snow
GFS brings it up E CONUS with the outer banks getting rain, then out 2 sea
NAM brings it up E CONUS with the eastern half of de carolinas, florida getting rain
NOGAPS takes system SSW lol.
maybe u git something like TS Hermine in 2010?
Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Feb 6, 9:35 am CST
Fair
45 °F
(7 °C)
Humidity: 81 %
Wind Speed: N 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.32"
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Wind Chill: 41 °F (5 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Pretty much what the government did for the 1900 storm that wiped out Galveston. US ignored the Cubans. Cubans were better and probably still are with tropical systems.
Link
US Cuban Hurricane Conference, Nov 2009
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,184 1442,00.html#ixzz1lcS6JutN
Yes I read about that. Just another thing I don't get or know what to say about. Sigh.
Nobody.
I think it's a complete oxymoron to decide which events are influenced by warming, and which events are not. The realistic fact of the matter is that every single aspect of our 2012 climate is influenced by it. Global warming doesn't affect 1 thing and not the other.
In other words, heat waves, cold outbreaks, precipitation anomolies, snowfall anomolies, jet stream position, AO, NAO, PNA, El Nino, LaNina, Tropical Storms (I could go on forever) all have warming injected into their equations. It leads up to a world-wide domino effect. Even when events/statistics fall within the historical norm, they too have been influenced by warming.
I believe climate/weather should be talked about in this manner, rather than saying this was influenced and that wasn't, because this but not that actually makes no sense at all.
They're the front line of incoming storms to the CONUS
I've heard they just upgraded to Bat Kites this year!
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012
...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTRIBUTES TO RECORD RAINFALL IN KEY
WEST...
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 5TH TOTALED 4.56 INCHES AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD* OF 2.89
INCHES...WHICH WAS SET IN 1872. IN FACT...THIS WILL ALSO GO DOWN AS
THE WETTEST FEBRUARY DAY IN HISTORY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 4.04
INCHES WAS SET ON FEBRUARY 28TH...1954.
THE RAINFALL WAS THE RESULT OF A FEW FACTORS. LATE SATURDAY
EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPED A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ON SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH PUSHED
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
COMBINED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY...THE TROUGH BECAME THE FOCUS POINT FOR A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE KEYS RECEIVED GENEROUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...BUT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WERE IN KEY WEST. NO FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR KEY WEST...BUT A COUPLE
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED CONCERNING MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS
AROUND THE ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD
MOVED EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
...24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...IN INCHES...FOR AVAILABLE STATIONS...
KEY WEST INT`L AIRPORT 4.56
KEY WEST WFO 3.79
KEY LARGO NORTH--HANDAR 2.74
BIG COPPITT KEY--COCORAHS 2.26
CUDJOE KEY--COCORAHS 1.68
CURRY HAMMOCK--COOP 1.50
BIG PINE KEY--HANDAR 1.26
CUDJOE KEY 1.08
MARATHON AIRPORT 1.03
*RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
$$
ROTHWELL
from the south...
Posted on February 6, 2012
February 6, 2012 PHILIPPINES Filipino officials say a strong earthquake has rocked the central Philippines, killing at least 53 people and causing widespread damage and power outages. The U.S. Geological Survey says the 6.8-magnitude quake struck late Monday morning at a depth of 20 kilometers. The quake was centered in a narrow strait just off Negros Island. Authorities say a landslide killed 29 people, others were killed in buildings and homes that collapsed on Negros, including the seaside town of La Libertad. Dozens of people are missing. Numerous aftershocks continued to shake the island hours after the quake. Officials say there is no concern of a tsunami, although some coastal towns nearby were hit by large waves. VOA
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