A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:
...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0
...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2
...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0
...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0
...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0
...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1
...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0
And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:
...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23
...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75
Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.
The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.
Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.
The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.
It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.
Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.
Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway.
The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
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I agree, I almost never watch FOX or their affiliates, because they are just...... incredibly ridiculous and exaggerate everything.
I went over to my bro's house and went downhill on a sled... standing up! Needless to say, it ended up painfully.... But it felt great for about 10 seconds to be a kid again :)
I don't watch MSNBC either, for similar reasons. I find CNN to be fairly moderate and the best choice for when I watch the news.
Will be back after midnight to check on SPC and Other things
Night all! Back at noon tomorrow!
"when I was in seminary school, there was a person there who put forth the proposition that you can petition the Lord with Prayer . . ."
Photo by Thilo Bubek.
Humm, I feel the same way about MSNBC, the same channel that GE owns, and Jeffery Emmelt CEO of GE is on Obama's boards, conflict of interest, I think so!
+1 for almost funny....
Aw, gee, thanks, Doug. ;-)
So, a moderate risk of some severely nasty stuff for most of the Mid-South, and half of Texas facing critical fire conditions. Today should be "interesting". In the not good way.
Most of the tornado action is forecast to be the northern half of Mississippi, SW Tennessee, NW Alabama, and eastern Arkansas. Wind threat is more likely for residents under the entire red shade.
VLY NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS...TN...AND LWR OH VLYS THIS EVE
THROUGH EARLY MON...
POTENT UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS WILL MOVE E INTO ERN
KS/OK THIS EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT AND ACCELERATING
ENE ACROSS THE MID MS...LWR OH...AND TN VLYS TNGT AND EARLY MON.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E ACROSS KS TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NE
ACROSS NRN MO AND IA TNGT...AND INTO WI EARLY MON.
AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...SATELLITE AND VWP DATA ATTM SHOW BROAD
50+ KT SSWLY LLJ EXPANDING NWD ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE PLNS. THIS
JET WILL EXPAND FARTHER E ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VLYS TODAY...WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ATOP SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED LAYER
OF COLD AIR OVER THE REGION.
STRONG TSTMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVE FROM IL
SSW INTO PARTS OF MO/AR AND LA...ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD
FROM THE LOW. GIVEN VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR
TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW LVL ENVIRONMENT ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E
AND NE ACROSS THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH 12Z MON.
...LWR MS VLY NWD AND EWD INTO THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY MON...
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F SHOULD EXTEND NWD TO THE MO
BOOTHEEL BY LATE TODAY GIVEN STRONG/PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. COUPLED WITH MODEST SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT WILL REACH SSWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN
AR INTO MS/LA. TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD QUICKLY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE NWD AND SWD AS LEAD SFC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES MOIST AXIS AND
CONTINUES EWD. WITH TIME...AN EXTENSIVE SQLN SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE
LWR OH VLY SSW INTO AR/NW MS/LA.
70 TO 90 KT MID LVL JET OVERSPREADING REGION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
A FEW LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS. LOW LVL SRH SHOULD MAXIMIZE OVER
PARTS OF AR...SE MO...WRN TN AND NRN MS...ON SRN FRINGE OF
RETREATING SHALLOW COOL AIR LAYER. GIVEN COMPARATIVELY GREATER
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STRONG TORNADOES....ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MON E/SE INTO PARTS OF ERN MS
AND AL AS EXISTING STORMS AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ENCOUNTER
MORE SLOWLY-RETREATING PART OF WEDGE AIR MASS IN THAT REGION.
FARTHER N...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WINDS AS
THE DEVELOPING SQLN AND TURBULENT MIXING ENCOURAGE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF STRONG LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE SFC...EVEN IN
REGIONS OF NEAR-ZERO SFC-BASED CAPE. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE...AT
LEAST ON A SPORADIC BASIS...NWD AND EWD INTO PARTS OF OH AND TO THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY MON.
IN THE MEAN TIME...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND WRN GA TODAY...WHERE SFC HEATING AND
ASCENT WITH WEAK LEAD UPR IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT SCTD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENT MAY PROVE FAVORABLY MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED TO POSE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO.
Very active and dangerous night for people in TN and surrounding areas.
Ah, that's right. I didn't go through all of the images. :P
Note: This is from April 27, 2011 and not today.
Sunday, January 22
AL - 3 to 4
AR east - 6
GA northwest - 3 to 4 night
IL south - 3 to 4 night
IN south - 3 to 4 night
KY west, middle - 3 to 4 night
LA north - 6
LA south - 4
MO southeast - 3 to 4 night
MS northwest - 6
MS rest - 4
OH southwest - 3 to 4 night
TN west - 6
TN middle - 4 night
Other areas - less than 2
(In a nutshell, a TOR:CON index number of 6 means there's a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location.)
Big day..
Of course chasers will be out today...everywhere.
I was making a comparison to the 2011 Super Outbreak. It is 15% for today, which is still really high, especially for January.
Oh...15% then...ok...definitely something to watch though...it should be a an interesting day.
Edit: I based this off the SPC map. Actully thunderstorm will show up in the 8 area.
Just for note, that is in 12 hours from now, and will spread east with time.
Forecast track looks alot better without the landfall at the end.
Fusno's flirting with the coast reminds me of Ophelia.
He/she/it can be the indian ocean version.
Its been on and off showers for the past 24 hours,with 2 inches at my location in Trinidad,other areas have gotten more,i'm expecting another 2 inches or so within the 24-36 hours which should bring the monthly rainfall to 300% above average as predicted.
Fox Sports
How they got it wrong before
After further research, it's Chesapeake bay-effect snow showers for my area. This is quite rare, and the first time that I know of it happening in recent memory.
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