A state of emergency has been declared in Oregon and Washington, where a powerful winter storm brought deadly floods, heavy snows of up to 4 feet, a severe ice storm, and damaging winds Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains of 3 - 8 inches have fallen over a wide swath of Western Oregon since Monday, causing major to record flooding on multiple rivers and creeks. In Albany, Oregon, a family of four drove out of a supermarket parking lot and into a flooded Perwinkle Creek Wednesday night, and were swept away. Two people were rescued, but a 20-month-old boy and his mother drowned. The Marys River in Philomath rose to its highest flood on record yesterday, and will remain at major flood stage today before gradually receding tonight. The rains have tapered off over much of the region today, but renewed rains are expected later today and intermittently into early next week. The storm also brought strong winds to Reno, Nevada, fanning a brush fire that tore through the Reno area, destroying more than 20 homes and forcing thousands to evacuate. Reno experienced sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 70 mph, during the afternoon Thursday. The city didn't get any precipitation, and has received just 0.03" of precipitation this year. That fell on Monday, breaking a 56-day streak with no precipitation--the longest wintertime dry streak in city history. Strong winds gusting to 55 mph are expected during the day today, keeping the fire danger high, but heavy rain is expected tonight, which should ease the fire danger. The storm also brought a significant freezing rain event to northern Oregon and Western Washington yesterday, and up to an inch of ice accumulated in some areas, contributing to power outages that affected at least 275,000 people.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 7 pm EST Thursday, January 19, of the West Coast winter storm. A second storm, now approaching the coast, can be seen at the left of the image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Some select snow amounts between 2 pm PST Monday January 16, and 1am PST Friday January 20, as compiled in the latest NOAA/NCEP/HPC Storm Summary:
...CALIFORNIA...
COVINGTON MILL 23.5
WEAVERVILLE 16.0
JUNCTION CITY 12.0
...IDAHO...
KETCHUM 22 NW 38.5
STANLEY 28 NE 32.9
BURLEY 30 SW 22.2
...MONTANA...
HERON 15.3
MISSOULA 15.0
COPPER CAMP 13.0
MANY GLACIER 13.0
HELENA 12.0
...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0
TIMBERLANE 45.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0
...UTAH...
ALTA 16.0 9662 FT
SNOWBIRD 11.0 8100 FT
PARK CITY JUPITER PEAK 5.0
...WASHINGTON...
JUNE LAKE 31.0
SURPRISE LAKE 30.0
LONE PINE 25.0
OLYMPIA 25.0
TACOMA 11.1
SPOKANE 7.7
SEATTLE 7.1
...WYOMING...
OVANDO 24.0
JACKSON 16.2
AFTON 12.0
SOUTH ENTRANCE YELLOWSTONE 11.0
And some select rainfall amounts from the same time period:
...CALIFORNIA...
GASQUET 9.80
CRESCENT CITY/MC NAMARA FIELD 5.87
ARCATA AIRPORT 3.63
EUREKA 3.23
...OREGON...
SWISS HOME 15.50
PORT ORFORD 5 E 11.47
FALLS CITY 10.20
SILVERTON 9 SE 8.83
SALEM/MCNARY FIELD 6.82
PHILOMATH 5 SW 6.68
CAVE JUNCTION 2 N 6.25
N MYRTLE POINT 6.10
CORVALLIS MUNI ARPT 5.98
BROOKINGS 5 NNW 5.50
PORTLAND INTL ARPT 1.75
Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record Thursday, and remains at major flood level today. Image credit: NOAA.
The short-term forecast
The storm door will remain open for California and the Pacific Northwest through the weekend and into mid-week, as two more moisture-laden storm systems pound the region. By the time the active weather pattern calms down by mid-week, rainfall totals of 10 - 20 inches are expected along the Oregon coast. Snowfall totals of 4 - 6 feet are likely in the Cascade Mountains of Washington and Oregon, in the Northern Sierra and Shasta/Siskiyou Mountains in California, in the Northern Wasatch and Uinta Ranges of Utah, and in the Northern Rockies from far eastern Idaho/Western Wyoming through Central and Northern Idaho, Northwestern Montana, and Northeastern Oregon. Damaging strong winds will affect the coast from Northern California to Northern Washington during the weekend and into early next week, as well.
Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 fell yesterday, a modest 0.08". The two-month period November 20 - January 19 saw just 0.26" of rain fall in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. More rain is expected Friday through Saturday.
The long-range forecast
A major atmospheric pattern shift is responsible for the big storm in the Western U.S. The ridge of high pressure that brought Northern California its driest two-month winter period on record Nov 20 - Jan 19 has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge and bring a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast. This shift was possible thanks to a weakening of a pressure pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). During December and the first half of January, the AO took on its second most extreme configuration on record. The pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low reached its most extreme value since records began in 1865, keeping the winds of the jets stream flowing very rapidly. This pattern bottled the jet stream far to the north in Canada, and prevented cold Arctic air from spilling southwards into the U.S . The combination of a near record-strength AO and a borderline weak/moderate La Ninña event in the Eastern Pacific combined to keep a powerful ridge in place over the Western U.S., deflecting all the winter storms into Canada and Southern Alaska. The AO index has become much less extreme over the past two weeks, though, and is now close to average strength. This has allowed the polar jet stream to sag southwards from Canada into the northern U.S., giving the northern tier of states their first real sustained winter-like weather of the season this week (it's about time!) However, the polar jet is expected to remain far enough north so that no major snow storms will occur in the U.S. during the remainder of January--except perhaps in the Pacific Northwest. It's likely that the lack of storms will make January 2012 one of the top five driest January months on record. This month is also likely to be a top-ten warmest January, but won't be able to challenge January of 2006 for the top spot. That January was an incredible 8.5°F above average in the contiguous U.S., and so far, we are running about 4 - 5°F above average. The AO index is predicted to remain near average or potentially change signs and go negative by the beginning of February, which would allow cold air to spill southwards into the U.S. bringing more typical winter-like weather.
It's too early to say what type of winter weather February might bring, but it might be instructive to look at the last time we had winter like this year's. Like the winter of 2011 - 2012, the winter of 2006 - 2007 started out exceptionally warm, with the AO index reaching its all-time most extreme positive value on record during December and early January. New York City hit 72°F on January 6, 2007, the city's all-time warmest January day. The rest of January 2007 saw a gradual lessening of the extreme AO pattern, much like we are seeing this year, and the AO returned to normal in February 2007. That month was a classic winter month, ranking as the 34th coldest February on record, with several notable snow storms.
Auroras possible this weekend
From spaceweather.com: Active sunspot 1401 erupted Jan. 19th, for more than an hour around 16:00 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection that appears to be heading toward Earth. Forecasters say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives during the late hours of Saturday, Jan. 21st. High-latitude (and possibly middle-latitude) sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post titled, The Pacific Northwest’s Greatest Storm: The ‘Storm King’ of January 1880.
Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
...with high winds and extreme dry conditions. Fire crews from Reno and Carson City are battling a brush fire burning from 300 to 400 acres is threatening homes in the Washoe City area, centered at 485 Washoe Drive. Door-to-door evacuations are underway.
The Reno-Sparks Livestock Events Center is acting as an evacuation center for horses, as a result of the Washoe Drive Fire.
I guess we were too slow so Mother Nature took it down for us. Winds approaching 100 mph - brushed our house - no damage - missed the truck by 3 feet. $20 porch light destroyed!
Another great cloud watching day as the storm approaches
Snow clings heavily on trees in the town of Federal Way after the first snow storm of the winter dumped 6 inches of snow and turned the world white.
Measured exactly 1 foot of snow right before I shot this picture but its still snowing steadily so that now there's 16 inches of snow, with no signs of stopping! I love it!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...NERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 5...
VALID 230159Z - 230330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
SW OF WW 5...MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITH
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS INTO NERN TX.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE POTENTIAL MATURITY OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
FORMED SWWD ACROSS FAR NWRN LA INTO NACOGDOCHES COUNTY TX. THIS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE TRAILING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING ACROSS MO/AR. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES
NEWD...ASCENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS SHOULD WANE.
STILL...MODERATE INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH RATHER STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
THREATS SHOULD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BE SUSTAINED. LATER THIS
EVENING...THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE THIS
CONFLUENCE AXIS AND MAY REINVIGORATE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NERN
LA INTO MS.
..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 33079361 33479315 33779260 33809228 33619197 33239186
32679200 31509304 31079411 31289494 31579499 33079361
809
WFUS54 KMEG 230211
TORMEG
ARC077-123-230300-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0002.120123T0211Z-120123T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
811 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WESTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 810 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 19
MILES WEST OF GARRET GROVE...OR NEAR DE VALLS BLUFF...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST
CITY...MADISON AND PALESTINE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
LAT...LON 3500 9116 3501 9106 3514 9105 3515 9064
3485 9071 3475 9110 3486 9111 3487 9112
3490 9113 3491 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 238DEG 44KT 3480 9137
WFUS54 KLZK 230213
TORLZK
ARC001-025-069-079-230300-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0011.120123T0213Z-120123T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
813 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
WESTERN ARKANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 808 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FEENYVILLE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RISON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...
WOODVILLE... WHITEFIELD... RICHARDSON...
NEBO... LITTLE BAYOU METO PARK...
LINWOOD... LANGFORD... GRADY...
FEENYVILLE... ENGLISH LAKE... DE WITT...
COTTONDALE... ALMYRA... YORKTOWN...
TARRY... SWAN LAKE... SARASSA...
REYDELL...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ROUGHLY ONE THIRD OF ALL ARKANSAS TORNADOES OCCUR AT NIGHT. TORNADOES
ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
LAT...LON 3443 9141 3419 9124 3394 9203 3407 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 239DEG 51KT 3405 9195
64
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab AR Page
Power flashes with the northern tornado.
Decoupling of the boundary layer, and storms have been heading into much higher area of shear. Unfortunately instead of going from supercells into a squall line, it seems to be transitioning in reverse.
Still a good meso on the north storm, but still isn't making it to the ground.
Middle-north cell still has good shear, but hasn't quite tightened to make me particularly concerned.
Middle-south cell now seems to have convergent rotation. Seems like Rison circulation may have occluded, then the cell cycled and we are back where we were before. Normalized rotation just as strong as it was when the cell was causing damage.
South cell rotation still seems broad, but it seems to be in a favorable area for continued development.
200
WUUS54 KMEG 230218
SVRMEG
ARC037-111-230300-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0014.120123T0218Z-120123T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 900 PM CST
* AT 818 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FAIR
OAKS...OR NEAR MCCRORY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHERRY
VALLEY...FAIR OAKS...PARKIN...VANNDALE...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK
STATE PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
LAT...LON 3523 9104 3537 9105 3563 9049 3514 9051
3514 9072 3515 9072 3515 9103 3516 9105
3522 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 245DEG 48KT 3525 9107
Radar information usually cannot be used to tell if it has been on the ground all that time. Especially considering that it is after dark, spotter information will be tough in that regard also. We might want to wait and see what daylight brings.
Very intense tornado likely on the ground.
There does not appear to be any tornado threat to Stuttgart at this time. Rotating cells passing to the north and south right now.
De Witt, AR, seems to be the next decent-sized community that could see a tornadic threat in the next 10 minutes. Seems to be the strongest cell at this time, but I don't think it's radar representation is hinting at a very strong or violent tornado, nor does merely a hook echo indicate such.
I'd say EF4.
Yeah I remembered how the supercell went from Mississippi to North Carolina on April 27th, and it was just families of violent tornadoes.
Doughnut holes are not to be joked around with. These holes appear on radar when the wind is spinning so violently the radar can't quite get an estimate of how strong it is.
People thought tornado in Vilonia was an EF5 because the pavement was peeled but it was rated EF2. April 25th, 2011 is the date if you need more research.
It is my guess, not fact. If you have a problem with it, there is an ignore button. :)
Numerous power flashes and visible tornado on the ground.
Power lines down causing fires.
Is this from a pay site?
Sometimes you can make estimates from radar, but it certainly requires more information than we have at present, and only is reasonably close in some situations. I don't think this counts.
De Witt circulation appears to be occluding. Could be a good thing for the city because it is causing it to turn north away from them. Good be a bad thing if a new circulation rapidly spins up to the south.
Its a paid program (180 a year)... only open to owners of other GRLevelX products at the moment though.
www.grlevelx.com
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