Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:07 (GMT)

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The deadliest storm of 2011 is Tropical Storm Washi, which is now being blamed for 957 deaths in the Philippines. Washi's heavy rains triggered devastating flash flooding on the island of Mindanao last Friday. However, the deadliest weather disaster of 2011 is a quiet one that has gotten few headlines--the East African drought in Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia, the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. However, conditions are improving. Food aid has lifted three of six provinces in Somalia out of famine. The "short rains" of the October - November rainy season were plentiful this year--too much so, since heavy rains killed 15 people in Kenya and left 80,000 homeless in early December. The flooding was worsened by the preceding drought, which killed much of the vegetation that ordinarily would have stabilized the soil and absorbed rainwater before it could run off and create destructive floods. The rains have allowed a good harvest to be planted this fall, and with continued food aid, the Somalia famine should ease by spring 2012. ReliefWeb reports that in the three Somalian provinces still experiencing famine, nearly 250,000 people face imminent starvation, though.


Figure 1. The impacts of the Horn of Africa drought on cattle in Somalia in 2006. Image credit: USGS

Meteorology of the East Africa drought
East Africa has two rainy seasons--a main "long rains" of March - June, and the "short rains" of October - November. The "short rains" failed in 2010, due to a sea surface temperature pattern featuring cooler than average waters in the western Indian Ocean, and warmer than average waters in the Eastern Indian Ocean (a negative "Indian Ocean Dipole.") When the main "long rains" in spring 2011 also failed, it brought one of the worst droughts in recorded history. The 2010 - 2011 drought was rated along with the droughts of 1983 - 1984 and 1999 - 2000 as one of the three most significant droughts of the past 60 years. It was the driest 12-month period on record at some locations in East Africa.


Figure 2. The "long rains" of March - May 2011 failed over much of East Africa, leading to drought and famine (left image.) However, the "short rains" of October - December have been up to five times higher than normal, easing the East Africa drought. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The uncertain future of drought in East Africa
The climate of East Africa during the main March - June rainy season has steadily dried over the past 30 years. Since 2004, six of the past eight years have seen unusually deficient spring "long rains." This drying of the East African climate has come as the waters of the Indian Ocean have warmed significantly. A 2011 study by A. Park Williams and Chris Funk of the University of California, Santa Barbara, blames the drought in East Africa on the heating up of the Indian Ocean, which has altered the atmospheric circulation over East Africa to bring more sinking air and less moisture. The atmospheric circulation over East Africa is part of Earth's largest atmospheric circulation feature--the Walker circulation. The Walker circulation features rising air over the warmest waters of the Pacific Ocean, and compensating sinking air over over eastern tropical Africa and the eastern tropical Pacific. The Walker circulation also helps drive the El Niño/La Niña phenomena in the Eastern Pacific. Williams and Funk show that the increase in Indian Ocean temperatures in recent decades has made the Walker circulation extend farther west, resulting in more sinking air over East Africa and thus less rain. Since the increase in Indian Ocean temperature driving this change in the atmospheric circulation shows strong linkages with human-caused global warming, they conclude: "anthropogenic [human-caused] warming appears to have already significantly altered the Earth's largest circulation feature and impacted its most food insecure inhabitants." They predict that East Africa will continue to dry as global warming increases the ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, impacting the Walker circulation. However, eighteen of the 21 models used in the 2007 IPCC report on climate change predict more rainfall over East Africa by the end of this century. These models predict that the Walker circulation will weaken, shifting towards a more "El Niño-like" state, resulting in less sinking air (and thus more rain) over East Africa. Since there is as yet no evidence of this happening, and East African climate has gotten drier in recent years, this may be a case where the large majority of the climate models are wrong. While the models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report do a reasonable job simulating the the current climate over most of the world, they do a poor job of simulating Africa's current climate. The models put too much precipitation in southern Africa, and displace the band of heavy thunderstorms called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) too far south. The 2007 IPCC report concludes, "the absence of realistic variability in the Sahel in most 20th-century simulations casts some doubt on the reliability of models". In other words, since these models do a poor job simulating the current climate of the Sahel region of Africa, we shouldn't trust their predictions for the future climate of Africa.


Figure 3. Farmers in the Horn of Africa tend their emerging crops. Image credit: USGS.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

References
Behera, Swadhin K., Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, Pascale Delecluse, Silvio Gualdi, Antonio Navarra, Toshio Yamagata, 2005: Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study. J. Climate, 18, 4514-4530. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3541.1

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Sheffield, J., K. M. Andreadis, E. F. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009, "Global and continental drought in the second half of the 20th century: severity-area-duration analysis and temporal variability of large-scale events", J. Climate 22, pp 1962-1981.

Williams, A.P., and C. Funk, 2011, A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa, Clim Dyn (2011) 37:2417-2435 DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y

Other posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

Wunderground releases its free iPhone and Android apps
Wunderground is proud to announce that our free Weather Underground iPhone app is now live in the iTunes store. The free Android version was released on Android Market last night. I've been having a lot of fun with the new apps; they're a great way to get weather info on the go.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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423. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 22:19 (GMT)
The Nighttime Lights of the World data set is compiled from the October 1994 - March 1995 nighttime data collected when moonlight was low. Using the Operational Linescan System (OLS) thermal infrared band, areas containing clouds were removed and the remaining area used in the time series. This image is actually a composite of hundreds of pictures acquired by three of the four DMSP satellites, which operate in low-altitude polar orbits and have the unique capability to detect low levels of visible-near infrared (VNIR) radiance at night.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
422. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 22:17 (GMT)
The first television image of Earth from space transmitted by the TIROS-1 weather satellite in 1960.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
421. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 22:15 (GMT)
The first images from space were taken on the sub-orbital V-2 rocket flight launched by the U.S. on October 24, 1946.

Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
420. VAbeachhurricanes
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:31 (GMT)
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
125 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC007-021-117-221945-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0171.000000T0000Z-111222T1945Z/
BIBB AL-CHILTON AL-SHELBY AL-
125 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY...NORTH
CENTRAL CHILTON AND EAST CENTRAL BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 122 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILTON...OR NEAR MONTEVALLO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALERA...COLUMBIANA...AMERICAN VILLAGE...SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT...
SAGINAW...CAMP BRANCH AND SHELBY.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 228 THROUGH 238...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3293 8688 3298 8696 3308 8698 3334 8670
3315 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 230DEG 38KT 3309 8681

$$

27
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
419. Neapolitan
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:31 (GMT)
NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13276
418. Jedkins01
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:27 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Are you still going to college for Meteorology?


Indeed, when I discussed it on here at first I was just getting started, I'm about 51 credits in now, I completed calculus 2 this fall, a very intense course so its nice to have that mile stone behind me lol. I'm ready for the spring term! The next big class of the Spring semester I'm taking will be Calculus 3, it looks more interesting than 2 though, because it has a lot more physics and real science application.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
417. sunlinepr
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:27 (GMT)
Heavy rains wreak havoc in Tanzania leaving 4 dead
Posted on December 22, 2011
December 22, 2011 - TANZANIA - At least four people were killed in flash floods that hit many parts of Dar es Salaam Tuesday, with the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) issuing an alert over more heavy rains in coastal areas. The Dar es Salaam Regional Commissioner (RC), Mr. Said Mecky Sadick, confirmed the four deaths after chairing an impromptu regional Peace and Security Council meeting. Widespread destruction of property and infrastructure was evident in some streets and thousands of people were left homeless when their houses were swept away. TMA said the rains were caused by the building of pressure over the Indian Ocean, which created heavy clouds along the coastline. The situation might persist for at least two days. The downpour started at around 3am (East Africa time) with thunder and strong winds and led to a power blackout in many parts of the city. The downpour started at around 3am (East Africa time) with thunder and strong winds and led to a power blackout in many parts of the city. Traffic jams were common Tuesday morning, with many roads either flooded or partly damaged. The RC said at least four people were confirmed dead, including an infant whose body was found at Kwa Mtogole at Tandale. He named the other three as Ms Dhati Mseti, who was struck by lightning, Mr. Mgasa Saidi and Mr Abraham Lusama. Some witnesses reported seeing dead bodies floating in some streams. –Africa Review

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
416. Jedkins01
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:21 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'd add another group: people who spent years--or even decades--up north of the snow line, and have vowed to never again let that chill soak into their bones. I've lived in Montana, Minnesota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Ohio (among others), so I'll be perfectly happy never seeing snow again.


Well I did say generally speaking, I have met people here who moved away from the cold and never, ever want to go back. I just know that the majority of people Ive met are long term Floridians like my family that once lived in cold and are glad to live in Florida, but we often get sick of continuous warmth that can go through the winter some years. I myself would never want to live in the north where its bitterly cold. But I wish a nice frequent chill, (highs in the 50's and 60's) would be more common and more reliable. I don't want endless cloudy days and 20's and 30's for highs every day and sometimes much colder than that, like you get in Michigan where my family came from. Ive been there when its very cold, windy, and constantly cloudy, it was interesting, but its certainly not something I'd want to live in lol.

I'm still happy to live here. Plus here in Tampa Bay our winters our consistently quite a bit cooler than yours our in Naples :) especially in terms of high temps and consistency. This is one of the warmest Decembers living here though. The last 2 winters were how I wish it always was here in the winter.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
415. RipplinH2O
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:16 (GMT)
Quoting NavarreMark:
Its raining cats and dogs in Navarre.
Really? Crap! I have a 2:00 t-time at Hidden Creek
Member Since: 30.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 491
414. RitaEvac
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:16 (GMT)
Quoting StormTracker2K:


How much rain did you receive? I see must areas got around 1.50".


Will check later this afternoon, was raining when I left for work, looks to be around 1.5 to 2 inches
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
413. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:16 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah I do get what your saying. By the way, do to the absence of hurricanes over the last several years, the amount of people moving to Florida has gone way back up. I hate that, because I'm not trying to be critical, but most people who move here are far from environmentally friendly. In fact it seems many people that move to Florida ignorantly joke about their wastefulness. Sadly they "I don't give a crap" is the common attitude of many people that come here. I am certainly not saying that's always the case by any means. It just seems we Florida attracts a lot of people that aren't good for the state, and/or people you don't want as your neighbor either, LOL.

Like I said, that's not always the case of course, I can't label millions of people, I'm just saying it seems to be an unfortunate pattern.
Are you still going to college for Meteorology?
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
412. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:12 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Some Gooooood rains overnight and this morning over large area of TX today


How much rain did you receive? I see must areas got around 1.50".
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
411. Jedkins01
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:12 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
The worst time I had there( and I have spent over 40 years in South Florida ) was after the hurricanes..Complete utter destruction of the neighborhoods and wildlife areas that I cared about. No power for 17 days, people next door almost died and lost just about everything. practically destroyed both our houses, and our livelihoods wiped out completely. .I love Florida, always have, excluding a few areas, it is overpopulated and will never be the place I knew when I was growing up...I could go on, but I believe you get the picture.


Yeah I do get what your saying. By the way, do to the absence of hurricanes over the last several years, the amount of people moving to Florida has gone way back up. I hate that, because I'm not trying to be critical, but most people who move here are far from environmentally friendly. In fact it seems many people that move to Florida ignorantly joke about their wastefulness. Sadly they "I don't give a crap" is the common attitude of many people that come here. I am certainly not saying that's always the case by any means. It just seems we Florida attracts a lot of people that aren't good for the state, and/or people you don't want as your neighbor either, LOL.

Like I said, that's not always the case of course, I can't label millions of people, I'm just saying it seems to be an unfortunate pattern.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
410. RitaEvac
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:09 (GMT)
Some Gooooood rains overnight and this morning over large area of TX today
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
409. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:08 (GMT)
Quoting kwgirl:
Hi gang. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah or whatever holiday you celebrate. It has been real quiet on this blog so I have been lurking. Stay safe everyone.
Happy and safe Holidays to you too K.W.Girl,..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
408. AtHomeInTX
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:07 (GMT)

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any rain you get later this week will be very light and spotty then nothing from then on out.


Shup ST2K!  Lol. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
407. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 19:01 (GMT)
Back atcha, kwg... I'm sure u r not hoping 4 cold wx down in the Keys...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
406. kwgirl
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:55 (GMT)
Hi gang. Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah or whatever holiday you celebrate. It has been real quiet on this blog so I have been lurking. Stay safe everyone.
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
405. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:48 (GMT)
This



is interesting on a personal level, but I think this



is going to be more newsworthy over the next 24 - 48...

[Showing only the tail end over the GOM, btw]
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
404. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:40 (GMT)
I'm supposed to be taking down hurricane battens today.... the last of the lot which my dad has procrastinated about for a couple of months... now he wants to wait until it dries up a bit. Guess that gives me about 15 minutes.

LOL
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
403. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:35 (GMT)
Welll..... quite interesting here; another early afternoon shower.



We don't usually get this type of afternoon shower in the winter... more likely to see overnight showers with diurnal cooling to the dewpoint...



Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
402. Neapolitan
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:32 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach.

I'd add another group: people who spent years--or even decades--up north of the snow line, and have vowed to never again let that chill soak into their bones. I've lived in Montana, Minnesota, Wyoming, Colorado, and Ohio (among others), so I'll be perfectly happy never seeing snow again.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13276
401. JNCali
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:31 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:

no...'core reversals' are when Scotti throws the Enterprise into reverse
But only if it is the will of Chuck Norris
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
399. Some1Has2BtheRookie
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:30 (GMT)
OK, I stole this link from 1911maker but, too good to pass up!

Link
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
398. scott39
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:08 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like a warm up at the end of run
Thanks for the animated map Keeper. I like it for a quick glance.
Member Since: 13.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
397. TropicalAnalystwx13
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:05 (GMT)
It's 79 °F right now...In southeastern North Carolina...on the first day of winter.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
396. Ameister12
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 18:01 (GMT)
Very similar places hit by the April 27 Tuscaloosa tornado, but if there were to be a tornado in Tuscaloosa, it would be very weak.

90
WWUS54 KBMX 221757
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC063-065-125-221830-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0169.000000T0000Z-111222T1830Z/
GREENE AL-HALE AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
1157 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUSCALOOSA...NORTHERN HALE
AND EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1157 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNDVILLE...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUTAW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHPORT...TUSCALOOSA...HOLT...MCFARLAND MALL...BRYANT DENNY
STADIUM...UNIVERSITY MALL
...COALING...LAKE WILDWOOD...DEERLICK
CREEK CAMPGROUNDS AND BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 45 THROUGH 97...
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
395. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:57 (GMT)
Tornado Warnings with these cells SW of Birmingham.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
394. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:52 (GMT)
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

ALC129-221800-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0149.000000T0000Z-111222T1800Z/
WASHINGTON AL-
1148 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...


AT 1147 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BIGBEE...OR 6
MILES NORTH OF CHATOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FRANKVILLE AND SILVER CROSS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
393. weathermanwannabe
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:51 (GMT)
It's all a matter of tradeoffs in terms of weather issues. Having lived in Florida all of my life (first in South Florida and now in North Florida) the majority of the former Northerners who moved here almost always say the same thing; they got tired of shovelling snow and moved to Florida and prefer the heat (with AC) over the bitter cold. Likewise, lots of Floridians like to try to get North during the summers to get away from the oppresive heat and humidity.

Not all of us have the money to travel for extended periods or own multiple homes so we can "chase" pleasant weather fron Florida in the Winter to the Carolina Mountains, or, further North in the Summer.

I plan to do just that if I ever hit the Lotto; otherwise, I am stuck here in one place......... :)
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
392. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:46 (GMT)


Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
391. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:44 (GMT)



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 899...

VALID 221722Z - 221815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 899 CONTINUES.

TORNADO RISK WILL LOCALLY BE MAXIMIZED AS/IF STORMS MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS AS THEY MOVE NEWD FROM SERN MS/FAR SWRN AL INTO SWRN AL.
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINE WILL POSE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADO/S.

MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PLACES AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SERN MS INTO THE SWRN QUARTER OF AL. TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL OFFSET A MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
PROFILE AS STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE NEWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KMOB VAD
SHOWS 350 MS/S2 0-1 KM SRH WITHIN A STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILE. GIVEN MODESTLY IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC SETUP
COINCIDENT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE...EXPECTING A LOCALIZED HIGHER
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO /PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT/ WITH ANY
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP/PERSIST AHEAD OF ADVANCING SQUALL
LINE THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SWRN AL.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
390. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:43 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree, I live in Florida and I hate when its like this in the winter. I like living here overall, but I miss the pattern that brought us very cold air consistently the past 2 winters. Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach. It isn't paradise here, live here for 15 years and you'll figure out why LOL.


Like I said though, I'm not a "grass is greener on the other side" person. I'm glad I live in Florida, I just get Sick of warm weather that sometimes.

Contrary to popular belief, Florida's beaches are not great year round either. The best time to go is April into early June. Then late September int the first half of October. After October the water is too cold till April. After early June it gets disgusting hot and sticky and the water gets grossly hot itself come July into early September. Florida beaches in summertime are gross.
The worst time I had there( and I have spent over 40 years in South Florida ) was after the hurricanes..Complete utter destruction of the neighborhoods and wildlife areas that I cared about. No power for 17 days, people next door almost died and lost just about everything. practically destroyed both our houses, and our livelihoods wiped out completely. .I love Florida, always have, excluding a few areas, it is overpopulated and will never be the place I knew when I was growing up...I could go on, but I believe you get the picture.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
389. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:43 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We need some cold in Florida.
But not, I repeat NOT, until after 30 Dec....

Happy New Year cold front, PDoug.... lol

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
388. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:32 (GMT)
Looks like Tuesday & Wednesday are going to be stormy here across FL with some areas in C FL getting potentially 2" plus.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
387. StormTracker2K
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:30 (GMT)
81 here NW of Orlando already with a dewpoint of 66. We could hit a record high here in Orlando today.

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
386. Jedkins01
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:19 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)


I agree, I live in Florida and I hate when its like this in the winter. I like living here overall, but I miss the pattern that brought us very cold air consistently the past 2 winters. Anyone who lives here for a long time knows that generally speaking, the only people who like this weather this time of year are either tourists or people who haven't lived here long enough because they haven't gotten over their love affair with the beach. It isn't paradise here, live here for 15 years and you'll figure out why LOL.


Like I said though, I'm not a "grass is greener on the other side" person. I'm glad I live in Florida, I just get Sick of warm weather that sometimes.

Contrary to popular belief, Florida's beaches are not great year round either. The best time to go is April into early June. Then late September int the first half of October. After October the water is too cold till April. After early June it gets disgusting hot and sticky and the water gets grossly hot itself come July into early September. Florida beaches in summertime are gross.

Like I said though, I'd rather still live here than most places in the U.S.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
385. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:17 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Concerning next year's hurricane season:

Weather Services International (WSI) has issued their extended-range prediction for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for near average numbers. In their report:

* 12 named storms are expected, of which 7 will intensify into hurricanes, and 3 will become major hurricanes.

* A cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not observed in the past decade and the weakening of La Nina will keep the hurricane season relatively tame.

* The probability of a USA landfall is near normal.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the East Coast is slightly reduced.

* The probability of a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast is slightly elevated.

Link
This actually sounds fairly logical. I think we'll get closer to 15 than 12 named storms, but otherwise the reasoning here makes sense to me.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
384. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:17 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


True. Very true. Just make sure KOG keeps the fans pointed towards Florida. Texas caught a cold last year. Houston had snow, ice and sleet and it wasn't from defrosting the freezer either. shudder
The weather here in Middle TN is lousy. Cold, rainy and windy..I am ready for a little taste of home Rook.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
383. dabirds
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:09 (GMT)
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I wish our bench could score a few pts. a game. lol


Sure haven't lately. Did great at the Gonzaga game my daughter took me to for my bday, nothing since, but it was finals time, so maybe tonite.

I suspect we may get that mid Jan freeze, but looked at StL 10 day and nothing below 27 in morning, all highs 40 or above, staying a muddy mess with those temps.

Looking in the mirror misty?
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
382. Ameister12
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:08 (GMT)
Strong rotation North of Leakesville. It's heading for State Line and Millry, Al.

Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
381. weathermanwannabe
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:08 (GMT)
Good Morning.

Real warm sector airmass along the Gulf Coast this morning from LA to Florida Panhandle per Tally NWS update as the front is coming through so it might get rocky for the Folks in AL and Florida Panhandle later today after the front pushes through Lousianna.

Time to keep and eye on the weather today and stay tuned to your local news and NOAA weather radios in these parts. Pretty amazing to to see these "El Nino" driven temps push into the mid-70's a few days before Christmas. Stay Safe.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1116 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2011

.UPDATE...A warm and moist airmass continues to overspread the area today. A warm front is analyzed across central Alabama with deep south to southwest flow in place across the forecast area. Dewpoints over southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are in the upper 60s to near 70 this morning. With a shortwave enhancing deep-layer lift, decent low-level shear, and marginal instability, there is a slight risk for isolated severe storms this afternoon
across the western half of the forecast area. The primary threat appears to be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, with a target time range of 18-00Z. Latest radar imagery does indicate scattered
convection breaking out in the warm sector across south Alabama, and this activity will spread east through the afternoon.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
380. Some1Has2BtheRookie
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:05 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)


True. Very true. Just make sure KOG keeps the fans pointed towards Florida. Texas caught a cold last year. Houston had snow, ice and sleet and it wasn't from defrosting the freezer either. shudder
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
379. Ameister12
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:01 (GMT)
708
WWUS54 KMOB 221657
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1057 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

MSC041-221715-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0148.000000T0000Z-111222T1715Z/
GREENE MS-
1057 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY...

AT 1056 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JONATHAN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEAKESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CLARK...OLD AVERA...KNOBTOWN AND KITTRELL
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
378. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Be careful, Hydrus. Last year KOG forgot that he had the fans on. We did not warm up until late April and only then because one of the fans threw a blade! LOL
You cant be serious....Cool weather in Florida is the bomb..Askin for warm weather down there is like bringin sand to the beach. :)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
377. Some1Has2BtheRookie
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:38 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Wer ya been Keep...Time for you to kick on those fans up there and send some of that Canadian air to Floridy...


Be careful, Hydrus. Last year KOG forgot that he had the fans on. We did not warm up until late April and only then because one of the fans threw a blade! LOL
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
376. hydrus
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:34 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how cold
Wer ya been Keep...Time for you to kick on those fans up there and send some of that Canadian air to Floridy...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19537
375. Patrap
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:25 (GMT)

347
WFUS54 KLIX 221610
TORLIX
LAC057-089-109-221645-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0169.111222T1610Z-111222T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1010 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LAFOURCHE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOUMA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1010 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO NEAR HOUMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOCKPORT...RACELAND...MATHEWS AND DES ALLEMANDS


New Orleans

NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
374. BahaHurican
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:08 (GMT)
Morning all. [except Aussie, to whom I bid good even.... lol] Another great day here in Nassau, Bahamas. Yesterday we had some rain, but otherwise it was another beautiful winter day. I hope this weather lasts through Christmas - crisp, cool, breezy, but above all, clear and sunny. Since there seems to be a relatively strong high hanging about in the area, my hopes are high.

I've got quite a bit to do today, so I may only pop in and out.... but I hope everyone is enjoying their ante-nativity week as much as I am....

L8r...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
373. RitaEvac
22. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:56 (GMT)
Expect Texans to have a chip on their shoulder tonight after last weeks upset, gonna be some frustrations taken out on the field tonight.

\"/
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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