Tropical Storm Washi kills 632 in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 19. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:47 (GMT)

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The death toll on the Philippine island of Mindanao is at least 632, with hundreds still missing, in the wake of extreme flash flooding from Friday's passage of Tropical Storm Washi. (December 29 update: the death toll has risen to 1249, with 79 still missing.) Washi hit Mindanao as a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds, crossing the island in about eighteen hours. Washi was unusually wet, as the storm was able to tap a large stream of tropical moisture extending far to the east (see the University of Wisconsin CIMSS satellite blog for imagery.) Aiding the heavy rains were sea surface temperatures that were nearly 1°C above average off the east coast of Mindanao, one of the top five warmest values on record. The exceptionally warm waters added about 7% more moisture than is usual for this time of year to the atmosphere. Washi hit a portion of the Philippines that does not see tropical storms and typhoons very often. Mindanao lies between 6°N and 9°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator for the Earth's spin to provide much help for a tropical storm trying to get spinning. Mindanao is thus hit only about once every twelve years by a significant tropical storm or typhoon. Washi's rains were not all that unusual for a Philippine tropical storm, with a peak rainfall amount of 7.44" (189 mm) observed in the city of Hinatuan. However, since the rains fell on regions where the natural forest had been illegally logged or converted to pineapple plantations, the heavy rains were able to run off quickly on the relatively barren soils and create devastating flash floods. Since the storm hit in the middle of the night, and affected an unprepared population that had no flood warning system in place, the death toll was tragically high. Washi is currently a tropical depression near the southern coast of Vietnam, and is dissipating.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color satellite image of Tropical Storm Washi at 01:45 UTC December 16, 2011, as it bore down on the Philippines. At the time, Washi had top sustatined winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Washi. The storm crossed the Philippines unusually far to the south, near 8°N latitude.

Washi the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2011
The death toll from Washi is by far the highest for any tropical cyclone in 2011, surpassing the 215 people that died in Myanmar from Tropical Storm 02B in October. The deadliest storm in the world so far in 2011 occurred on January 11, when torrential rains of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro. Flash floods and mudslides from the heavy rains claimed 902 lives and caused $1.2 billion in damage. It was Brazil's deadliest storm in history. If we add Washi's toll to a list of deadliest storms of 2011 compiled by insurance broker AON Benfield, the Philippine disaster currently ranks as the third deadliest storm of 2011:



Deadliest natural disaster of 2011: the East Africa drought
While Tropical Storm Washi and the January 11 flash floods in Brazil are the deadliest storms of 2011, there is one weather-related disaster in 2011 that far surpasses these floods for number of people killed: the devastating East Africa drought in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. On July 20, the United Nations officially declared famine in two regions of southern Somalia--the first time a famine has been declared by the UN in nearly thirty years. Almost 30,000 children under the age of five were believed to have died of malnutrition in Somalia this summer, and the total death toll of this great drought is doubtless much higher. At least thirteen million people in East Africa are in need of food aid. Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the International Rescue Committee donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Winter storm Joachim batters Europe
One of the most intense storms in recent years carved a path across Western Europe December 15 - 17th. Named winter-storm ‘Joachim’, the center of the storm passed between France and the United Kingdom, then across the Low Countries and into Northwestern Germany and on to Poland. A peak wind gust of 211 kph (131 mph) was measured at Puy de Dome in Auvergne, France. In Germany, sustained winds of 87 mph were measured at Wendelstein at 8 pm local time on December 16th. The central pressure of Joachim fell as low as 963.8 mb (28.46”) in Braunschweig in western Germany, which may be the lowest pressure ever recorded in Germany. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has the details in his latest post.

Wunderground releases its free iPhone app
We are proud to announce that our free Weather Underground iPhone app is now live in the iTunes store. Don't worry Android users, we anticipate that the Android version will be live later today.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Road blocked 2 washi 2011 (nroussel)
Road broke down by washi on December 20th, 2011.
Road blocked 2 washi 2011

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164. Neapolitan
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:32 (GMT)
For anyone interested, Dr. Masters has had a new blog entry up for awhile.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13268
163. bappit
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:20 (GMT)
Looking it up doesn't give a clear picture.
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
162. BahaHurican
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:19 (GMT)
So... an actual cold front, AtHome? [Though it seems it fizzles before Florida...]
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
161. BahaHurican
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:17 (GMT)
Being from the home of voodoo and all, [US] why is one surprised?

LOL

I gatta admit I was wondering what a Giorni day was, but have been too lazy to look it up...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
160. AtHomeInTX
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:16 (GMT)
Getting more rain at my house than in quite awhile. It's still raining.. This does constitute news in these parts. Lol.  Hopefully I'll be getting an accurate measure of these things in the near future thanks to a rain gauge a friend told me about. Thanks D.  ;-)  However the temps dropping quickly since the onset  of the rain. Started out at 67 now down to 55. 
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
159. RitaEvac
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:01 (GMT)
The point is, Pat is using Voodo magic countdown
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
158. CybrTeddy
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:50 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:



is there point too this?


Dec. 21. 2012 taz. ;)
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
157. Tazmanian
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:50 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 366 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.



is there point too this?
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
156. Patrap
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
There are now 366 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
155. hydrus
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:03 (GMT)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
The Voice of NOAA Weather sings Deck the Halls....

Link
Great link. Thank you for posting it.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19521
154. Patrap
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:58 (GMT)
Philippines Floods 2011: Government Declares State Of Calamity As Death Toll Nears 1,000

ILIGAN, Philippines -- The government shipped more than 400 coffins to two flood-stricken cities in the southern Philippines on Tuesday as the death toll neared 1,000 and President Benigno Aquino III declared a state of national calamity.

The latest count listed 957 dead and 49 missing and is expected to climb further as additional bodies are recovered from the sea and mud in Iligan and Cagayan de Oro cities.

A handful of morgues are overwhelmed and running out of coffins and formaldehyde for embalming. Aid workers appealed for bottled water, blankets, tents and clothes for many of 45,000 in crowded evacuation centers.

Navy sailors in Manila loaded a ship with 437 white wooden coffins to help local authorities handle the staggering number of dead. Also on the way were containers with thousands of water bottles.

Most of the dead were women and children who drowned Friday night when flash floods triggered by a tropical storm gushed into homes while people were asleep.

Dozens of grieving relatives of at least 38 victims wept openly during funeral rites at the Iligan city cemetery. Many wore masks to try to block the stench of decomposing bodies.

"We have to give the dead a decent burial," Mayor Lawrence Cruz said. He said authorities were using part of the cemetery's passageway to build tombs.

A Briton was the first foreigner reported dead in the flooding, according to the British Embassy in Manila. It didn't provide details.

Aquino, on a visit to Cagayan de Oro on Tuesday, said the declaration of a national calamity will help local authorities gain quick access to recovery funds and keep prices of basic goods stable.


"Our national government will do its best to prevent a repeat of this tragedy," Aquino told residents who came to greet him.

He said there would be an assessment of why so many people died, if there was ample warning that a storm would sweep through the area, and why people living along riverbanks and close to the coast had not been moved to safety.

"I do not accept that everything had been done. I know that we can do more. We must determine what really happened," Aquino said. "Must this end in tragedy? We knew that (storm) was coming. There should have been efforts to avoid the destruction."

The U.N. food agency flew in 3 tons of high-protein biscuits together with water tanks, blankets, tarpaulins and tents for some 75,000 people. Shortage of water was still a major problem in the two cities.

In New York, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern, U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said.

"The United Nations and its partners stand ready to support the government in responding to this disaster," the deputy spokesman added.

A resident wades through a flooded street with an electric fan following a flash flood that inundated Cagayan de Oro city, Philippines, Saturday, Dec. 17, 2011. A tropical storm triggered flash floods in the southern Philippines, killing scores of people and missing more. Mayor Lawrence Cruz of nearby Iligan said the coast guard and other rescuers were scouring the waters off his coastal city for survivors or bodies that may have been swept to the sea by a swollen river.
(AP Photo/Froilan Gallardo)
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
153. Ameister12
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:48 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
re: 147, was that Joplin?

No. It's Tuscaloosa. The picture was taken by a UPS driver, Jimmy Jones under the 31st Street Bridge Overpass moments after the tornado passed by.
Link
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
152. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:37 (GMT)
Quoting Ameister12:
Australia's heating up.


i must add to that image:D
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
151. Neapolitan
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:36 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
re: 147, was that Joplin?

Tuscaloosa: "Photo is from UPS driver, Jimmy Jones...He took the picture on April 27, from under the 31st Street Bridge Overpass at I-359. The damaged vehicle on the other side of the road, to the right of the red SUV, is his UPS truck. He was headed in the opposite direction before the tornado struck!"

(Note the person crawling from the driver's side of the red SUV.)
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13268
150. BahaHurican
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:30 (GMT)
Hey, Chick... looks like.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
149. Chicklit
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:29 (GMT)
re: 147, was that Joplin?
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
148. weathermanwannabe
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:20 (GMT)
Quoting Ameister12:
Australia's heating up.


Yup; from the same AusMet ENSO discussion below:

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year and summer across large parts of Australia, particularly the eastern and northern regions. Daytime temperatures are typically cooler than average and tropical cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November to April). During La Niña years, the first tropical cyclone to cross the Australian coast typically occurs in the first half of December. For detailed rainfall and temperature outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.

Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
147. Ameister12
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:09 (GMT)
Perhaps the scariest picture of 2011.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
146. Ameister12
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:59 (GMT)
Australia's heating up.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4498
145. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
Tropical Low 02U
11:00 PM EST December 20 2011
===================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low 02U (1003 hPa) located at 13.7S 154.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving east northeast at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3S 155.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.2S 154.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.2S 155.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

T2.0. Convection has increased in the last few hours with diurnal trend. Organization improving slightly.

Favorable outflow in all quadrants under the influence of an upper atmospheric anticyclone. No significant wind shear expected over the next 2 days before an upper trough should impact the system on Friday. As a result the system is expected to develop over the next 48 hours and move to the south-southeast on Wednesday and Thursday, before experiencing increasing wind shear and steering
to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone update from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 19:00 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
144. weathermanwannabe
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
La Niña continues across the Pacific Basin
Issued on Wednesday 7 December | Product Code

La Niña conditions strengthened across the tropical Pacific Basin during November. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the La Niña is likely to peak during the next month and last at least until the end of summer. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloudiness, all displayed some strengthening over the past fortnight, with the current SOI value of +15 being the highest since the breakdown of the 2010-11 event in May 2011. Similarly, the classic La Niña ocean patterns in the tropical Pacific have become more clearly defined over the past month.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
143. RitaEvac
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Front pushing in, causing lift over Brazoria and Galveston counties.

Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
142. AtHomeInTX
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
OOPS Sorry ST2K ya beat me to it. Got all excited there was an actual flood advisory to my north where it needs to be.




Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
141. weathermanwannabe
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Good Morning. These La Nina Winters are always very interesting because of the perceived "odd" weather they produce for certain parts of the US like the South with potential record breaking warm temps in the Winter. Likewise, other parts of the Nation get hammered with Blizzards and Snowstorms come Jan.....Then because of the dryness in the South and drought issues, come the Spring, you will see lots of pollen in the air from all the oak trees in the SE and spikes in term of allergies and lots of runny noses.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
140. AtHomeInTX
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Almost here.


Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
139. StormTracker2K
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
138. StormTracker2K
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
4 Foot Snow Drifts as Plains Blizzard Rages

by weather.com & Associated Press

Updated: Dec. 20, 7:31 a.m. E/T


Boise City, Oklahoma, in the far western portion of the state's panhandle, is virtually shut down by the blizzard (Twitpic: @ rickmitchellwx)

WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Fierce winds and snow that caused fatal road accidents and shuttered highways in five states, crawled deeper into the Great Plains early Tuesday, with forecasters warning that pre-holiday travel would be difficult if not impossible across the region.

Hotels were filling up quickly along major roadways from eastern New Mexico to Kansas, and nearly 100 rescue calls came in from motorists in the Texas Panhandle as blizzard conditions forced closed part of Interstate 40, a major east-west route, Monday night

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
137. StormTracker2K
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:31 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
136. StormTracker2K
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:30 (GMT)
We could reach the mid 80's here in orlando later this week once the SSW flow kicks in.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
135. StormTracker2K
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
134. ChillinInTheKeys
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
The Voice of NOAA Weather sings Deck the Halls....

Link
Member Since: 18.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 669
133. RevElvis
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Short video clip of the clouds over Birmingham - Dec. 16

Link
Member Since: 18.09.2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 948
132. trunkmonkey
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Wow, I need to move to Miami, where I can ride my motorcycle 12 months out of the year!

it's 39 and raining in Indy!
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 557
131. GeoffreyWPB
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Miami NWS Discussion

SOME COOLER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
HOW COOL IS IN QUESTION...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE
20.00Z GFS RUN DIGS A SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH A FORMIDABLE COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FL ON
MONDAY. THIS WOULD COOL TEMPS BRIEFLY TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL BY
NEXT TUE-WED. HOWEVER...THE 20.00Z ECMWF RUN SHOWS A LESS
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AS PER THE
GFS. EITHER WAY...NO "COLD" AIR OF SIGNIFICANCE IS SHOWN BY EITHER
MODEL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALSO...BOTH MODELS SHOW MINIMAL QPF
WITH THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND INSTABILITY LOOKS LACKING FOR
TSTORMS...SO KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

Reeee-dikerous

Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
130. islander101010
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:43 (GMT)
deadliness cyclones reminds me of vietnam body count people throughout the world are producing people in increasing numbers because of this we should expect a increase in the number of casualities
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
129. AussieStorm
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 09:06 (GMT)
Study links tropical cyclones to earthquakes

US researchers say they have found evidence that tropical cyclones in Haiti and Taiwan were followed by earthquakes, suggesting that heavy rains and landslides may unleash temblors.

"Very wet rain events are the trigger," says University of Miami scientist Dr Shimon Wdowinski, an associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics.

"The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."

Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analysed data from major earthquakes - magnitude six and higher - in Taiwan and Haiti over the past 50 years and found that large quakes tended to follow within four years of a very wet tropical cyclone season.

In some recent cases, quakes happened sooner, such as in 2009 when Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan was followed the same year by a magnitude 6.2 quake and another 6.4 quake in 2010.

Morakot killed 614 people and left 75 missing, burying entire villages and dumping a record three metres of rain in what is considered one of the island's worst natural disasters.

Typhoon Herb hit in 1996, killing hundreds in China and Taiwan, and was followed two years later by a 6.2 earthquake and then a 7.6 earthquake in 1999.

After 1969's Typhoon Flossie was followed three years later by a magnitude 6.2 quake in 1972, the researchers write.

The team also looked at the 2010 magnitude seven earthquake in Haiti and found it came a year and a half after two hurricanes and two tropical storms drenched the island nation within 25 days.

The quake hit in January last year and levelled the capital Port-au-Prince, killing more than 225,000 people and leaving one in seven homeless. An ensuing cholera epidemic left more than 5000 people dead.

Shifting surface loads
The researchers says their theory is that the heavy rains and landslide shift enough weight away from the surface load above the fault that a quake is triggered.

"The reduced load unclamp the faults, which can promote an earthquake," says Wdowinski.

The hypothesis only fits areas where there are fault lines on an incline, such as mountainous regions where the waters would push the land significantly far away from cracks deep in the Earth's bedrock.

The researchers plan further study of weather conditions in the Philippines and Japan to see if the same links can be observed.

The findings were presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Society in San Francisco.


Earthquake scientists fear Italian trial

Mega-quake clusters unlikely: study
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
128. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:57 (GMT)
time for bed. night all!
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
127. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:45 (GMT)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 03-20112012
10:00 AM RET December 20 2011
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression 3 (1004 hPa) located at 25.8S 44.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: Nil

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 25.5S 43.6E - 25 knots (Depression subtropicale)
24 HRS: 25.2S 42.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
=======================

The system has failed to intensify, near gale force winds to very locally gale force winds still exist within a convergence line located far away form the center in the southeastern quadrant (335 NM to 535 NM from the center) due to the gradient effect with the subtropical ridge.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
126. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:44 (GMT)

Weak. but there..a shifting in the winds...*evil laugh* LOL
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
125. TomTaylor
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:39 (GMT)
Quoting bappit:
700 mb is around 12,000 feet. That's a lot higher than these clouds.

Here's the original posting.

Explanation from the Reddit discussion:

"These are indeed Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. What is happening is that the nocturnal near-surface layers (lowest 50-100m) of the atmosphere are much more stable than the layers above it in the mornings. Until the ground heats up due to daytime heating, the surface layers stay more stable than the air over it. Kelvin-Helmholtz waves occur when the wind shear between the layers destabilizes the topmost portion of that stable layer, and entrains the air into the unstable layer. What you see is stable air being lifted, cooled, and condensed so that this process becomes visible, though this commonly happens many places without being visible."
Thanks that makes more sense. Those clouds are definitely not at the 700mb level.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
124. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:33 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Significant chance of monsoon trough off Australia's northern coastline developing into a Christmas cyclone

IT may not be such a merry Christmas for folks in the Northern Territory if forecasts of a cyclone by the weekend come true.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angeline Prasad said there is a greater than 50 per cent chance a monsoon trough off the coast will become a low in the Arafura Sea.

"This system has got a significant chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the weekend," she said.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

She said there was a high probability that any tropical cyclone that formed in the system would strike Australia between the Kimberley coast and the Carpentaria coast.

"We try our best to get a model consensus and work out where it is going to move and which part of the coast it will hit, and at this stage we can't say," she said.

Ms Prasad said the danger period for a cyclone crossing into Australia would be between Friday and Sunday, with a small chance the cyclone could form by Thursday.

People in the Top End should ensure they have a cyclone kit ready, with a radio, batteries, essential clothes and food for three days, and the location of the nearest cyclone shelter, Ms Prasad said.

"It is the cyclone season and it is going to continue until April and a cyclone can occur at any time," Ms Prasad said.

The northern part of Australia typically experiences two to three cyclones each season, which lasts until April, but this year forecasters are expecting slightly more than average.

In the southern Philippines, the toll of dead and missing from the cyclone that swept the southern Philippines has exceeded 1000 as cities prepared mass burials for the victims.

The government disaster monitoring council said in its latest update that tropical storm Washi had left 957 dead and 49 missing after lashing the southern island of Mindanao and surrounding areas at the weekend.


YES! YES! i got back up! woohoo!!! i noted this area this morning, and have continued to do so(referring to the area on Coral Sea) and was wondering if i was going over the top regognizing it as a disturbance, but this is just what i need to give me confidence!
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
123. AussieStorm
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:28 (GMT)
Significant chance of monsoon trough off Australia's northern coastline developing into a Christmas cyclone

IT may not be such a merry Christmas for folks in the Northern Territory if forecasts of a cyclone by the weekend come true.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angeline Prasad said there is a greater than 50 per cent chance a monsoon trough off the coast will become a low in the Arafura Sea.

"This system has got a significant chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the weekend," she said.

On Christmas Eve in 1974, Cyclone Tracy devastated much of Darwin and killed 71 people.

She said there was a high probability that any tropical cyclone that formed in the system would strike Australia between the Kimberley coast and the Carpentaria coast.

"We try our best to get a model consensus and work out where it is going to move and which part of the coast it will hit, and at this stage we can't say," she said.

Ms Prasad said the danger period for a cyclone crossing into Australia would be between Friday and Sunday, with a small chance the cyclone could form by Thursday.

People in the Top End should ensure they have a cyclone kit ready, with a radio, batteries, essential clothes and food for three days, and the location of the nearest cyclone shelter, Ms Prasad said.

"It is the cyclone season and it is going to continue until April and a cyclone can occur at any time," Ms Prasad said.

The northern part of Australia typically experiences two to three cyclones each season, which lasts until April, but this year forecasters are expecting slightly more than average.

In the southern Philippines, the toll of dead and missing from the cyclone that swept the southern Philippines has exceeded 1000 as cities prepared mass burials for the victims.

The government disaster monitoring council said in its latest update that tropical storm Washi had left 957 dead and 49 missing after lashing the southern island of Mindanao and surrounding areas at the weekend.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
122. AussieStorm
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:20 (GMT)
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:25 pm CST Tuesday 20 December 2011

Valid until the end of Friday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A monsoon trough near the north coast of the Top End is moving north into the
Arafura Sea. A low pressure system is expected to develop in the trough within
the next 12 to 24 hours and may intensify further into a tropical cyclone on
Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Wednesday: Low.
Thursday: Moderate.
Friday: High.


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane


Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:35pm EST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011 and valid until end of
Friday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southwesterly
direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The
low is forecast to turn southeast, away from the Queensland coast, later in the
week. The low is expected to remain offshore and not directly affect the
Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Wednesday:High
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Moderate


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Tuesday the 20th of December 2011
Valid until midnight WST Friday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
There are currently no significant lows in the region.

A low is likely to develop outside of the Western Region in the vicinity of 7S
90E during Wednesday and Thursday. This low may develop further and enter the
Western Region during Friday.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Very Low
Friday :Low

During Wednesday and Thursday a low is likely to form in the vicinity of the Top
End, east of 125E. This system may develop into a tropical cyclone on Friday,
but is likely to remain east of 125E. There still remains a slight chance that
this system will drift west into the Western Region late on the weekend or early
next week.

Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Very Low
Thursday :Very Low
Friday :Very Low

Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
121. sar2401
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:56 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
on a traffic graph on my website, does the activity chart that tracks visitors..does it count me? im working and editing the TWO all day


It might, although a good website traffic counter only looks at unique IP's. Easiest way to find out is log in and then log out. Log in again and see if the count went up by one or stayed the same.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9781
120. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:48 (GMT)
on a traffic graph on my website, does the activity chart that tracks visitors..does it count me? im working and editing the TWO all day
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
119. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:46 (GMT)
i have a quesTION!!
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
118. sar2401
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:40 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:


Worth repeating...again


Presslord, did you read my post #45? I was rather waiting for a response from you. How can you say, with any certainty, that ninety cents of every dollar will get to the people that actually need it? Can you tell me how much has been donated this year from agencies and the public? Can you tell me how much food aid has managed to run the gauntlet of corrupt government troops, corrupt African "peacekeeping" forces, and the usual assortment of thugs and mercenaries working for the warlords and rebels? It's one thing to get money to an address in New York or London and quite another to get the food purchased with that money to Somalia. If all the money that has been currently been spent for aid was converted to food and delivered, no one should be starving. The fact that the number of starving is not decreasing but, in fact, is getting worse, tells me we are not doing much good following the same old path to help these unfortunate people.

My nephew, a former Navy SEAL, is working for an NGO (that I'd rather not name, for reasons that will become obvious) that is involved in getting food and medical aid to eastern Somalia and parts of Kenya. About 50% of the donations to this NGO are used by him and his team to train and equip mercenaries - humanitarian mercenaries, if you will. His mercenaries use "technicals" - the heavily armed pickup trucks so commonly seen in the Horn of Africa - to escort convoys, and have been involved in numerous firefights with the same groups I wrote about above. Because they are better trained and equipped than most of those forces, more of the food aid gets through. They rarely have to engage in firefights now, because the thieves and thugs know there are softer targets to go after. They are now getting about 95% of the food to the destinations they need it most. I have no idea how the IRC handles these same situations, but being in a convoy with white trucks and red crosses is a good way to get killed and have all the vehicles and food stolen. Of course, this NGO does not publicize they are running what is essentially their own private army to get food through, but I have no problem with the idea. I'd rather see 50% of the food get through than virtually none. Unless you can assure me that the IRC has some similar kind of system get food through these hostile areas, I view donating as worse than throwing money down the drain. My donations are actually helping to support and arm groups that will spread the conflict and cause even greater starvation. Sorry if this all seems harsh, but talking to my nephew has really opened my eyes about what the real problems are in the Horn of Africa, and drought is merely the backdrop to massive human rights violations.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9781
117. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:24 (GMT)
who would have thought, that SPLbeater would have such a difficult time just trying to increase traffic to his website? VERY surprising!

(sarcasm flag: ON)
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
116. SPLbeater
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 05:00 (GMT)
Hey everybody thats bored...ah whatever. i got a NEW BLOG out, check it out! PLEASE

Link
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
115. sar2401
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 04:59 (GMT)
Quoting 1911maker:


It was meant to be "tongue in cheek" given the doom and gloom the blog was expressing. It was the first thing that popped up that looked appropriately nutter based.

OK, sorry, missed the tongue in cheek part. There are so many people spouting this wacky Mayan 2012 stuff that I just automatically assumed you were another one. :)
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9781
114. sar2401
20. joulukuuta 2011 klo 04:48 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
But... they said that fallout would dissipate and that it was too far away for any effect on US....

Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ - Impact Seen As Roughly Comparable to Radiation-Related Deaths After Chernobyl; Infants Are Hardest Hit, With Continuing Research Showing Even Higher Possible Death Count


I'm really going to have to see the data that led to these conclusions. The study is being touted on PR Newsline, which is a paid PR service. The study won't be available on the IJHS site but only on Radiation.org, which is a fairly biased website and not noted for scientific articles. From the little I can find so far, the higher levels of I-131 were found in precipitation. There's no mention of the huge increases claimed by the authors in any kind of food that humans would consume. I'm not saying that this study is wrong, but it is quite an unusual way to introduce a peer reviewed study to the scientific community.
Member Since: 2.10.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9781

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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