Climate change education in zoos

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:20 (GMT)

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I'm in San Francisco this week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over ten thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world's top climate scientists, are in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. This year, there is much attention being given to communication of science to the public, and the first talk I attended today on the subject was given by Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State University. Dr. Mann has been at the center of much recent controversy over climate science, and has an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal titled, "Climate Contrarians Ignore Overwhelming Evidence". His "hockey stick" graphs showing the unprecedented increase in global temperatures over the past 1,000 years has been the subject of heated attack, much of it orchestrated by the public relations wings of powerful industries whose profits are threatened by by possibility of regulatory action to reduce global warming. He has a book coming out in January titled, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Dr. Mann reaffirmed his stance on human-caused climate change in his talk this morning, calling attention to a paper that appeared in Nature Geoscience last week, finding that most of the observed warming of Earth's climate in recent decades—at least 74 percent—is almost certainly due to human activity. Dr. Mann said that this study did not go far enough, and that more than 100% of the warming in the past 30 years was due to humans. Without humans, the climate would have cooled over the past 30 years.


Figure 1. An example of educational material on polar bears that has been developed by CliZEN for use at nine U.S. zoos.

Dr. Mann also introduced a new pilot program he is involved with to advance climate change education through U.S. zoos. The National Science Foundation-funded project is called CliZEN, The Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network. Zoos represent a unique way for people to connect to the natural world, and over 50 million people in the U.S. go to the zoo each year--double that, if one includes aquariums. Thus, zoos thus offer a unique opportunity to communicate how climate change threatens the natural world. People who go to zoos are approximately 50% more likely to be alarmed or concerned about climate change than the general population, Dr. Mann showed. The initial eduction effort has a polar theme, and is being brought to nine zoos: the Chicago Zoological Society of Brookfield, IL; Columbus Zoo & Aquarium, OH; Como Zoo & Conservatory, St. Paul, MN; Indianapolis Zoo, IN; Louisville Zoological Garden, KY; Oregon Zoo, Portland, OR; Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, PA; Roger Williams Park Zoo, Providence, RI; and the Toledo Zoological Gardens, OH. The organization Polar Bears International is helping develop the educational material.

Jeff Masters

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375. zoyajack
6. kesäkuuta 2012 klo 10:16 (GMT)
Thanks for sharing,would love to give visit this place.Seeing polar bears so closely would be great fun.
Zoo Management
Member Since: 7.04.2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
374. Some1Has2BtheRookie
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:30 (GMT)
Why is everyone still here? Dr. Masters has a new blog up. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
373. Neapolitan
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 17:08 (GMT)
Colorado State Univeristy is, indeed, out with its 2012 hurricane forecast. It's a fascinating read with lots of detailed infor for the TC-deprived. Dr Gray and his team say one of the following scenarios will play out:

1. THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
2. THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance.
3. THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 30% chance.
4. THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10% chance.

And then they go on to state the following:


Typically, seasons with the above-listed NTC values have TC activity as follows:
180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

So there you have it: 2012 will see a count between 5-2-0 and 17-11-5, with a most likely chance of 13-8-4. Have fun with that. ;-)

For what it's worth, they also changed their climatology to the following:

1950-2000 Mean in parenthesis; 1981-2010 median
Named Storms: (9.6) 12.0
Named Storm Days: (49.1) 60.1
Hurricanes: (5.9) 6.5
Hurricane Days: (24.5) 21.3
Major Hurricanes: (2.3) 2.0
Major Hurricane Days: (5.0) 3.9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: (96) 92
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: (100) 103
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
372. wxmod
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:55 (GMT)

In the north half of this photo of the Eastern Pacific are tons of ship trails, some a hundred miles wide and a thousand miles long. This affects the weather in a big way, all over the world. Since we're into predictions here, I predict that the Colorado River drainage will get plenty of snow and everybody else will get a drought.
Member Since: 4.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1602
371. bappit
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:49 (GMT)
GOES news

"On December 6, 2011 at 1545z, GOES-15 took its first infrared image as the operational geostationary satellite positioned over the Pacific - called GOES-West."
Member Since: 18.05.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
370. taistelutipu
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Re 365. thanks for sharing. Signed.

Here across the big pond in good ol' UK the weather warnings are popping up one after another. We have a level 2 Cold Weather Alert and Red Alert for High winds. Red is the highest level and quite rare, only used a few times a year. BBC Scotland warns of travel disruptions, power cuts, damage to property. It's supposed to hit around rush hour so commuters will have a hard time tomorrow. The low pressure system is forecast to be 965 mb deep or less.
Even down here in Wales I expect winds ranging 50-60 mph.
Member Since: 20.08.2007 Posts: 12 Comments: 623
369. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 16:07 (GMT)
i just engulfed a pound of crackerz. where is everybody
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
368. Patrap
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:30 (GMT)




Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
367. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:25 (GMT)
Atlantic
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
366. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 15:21 (GMT)
be nice if there was a tropical post to read :/

im bored
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
365. CaicosRetiredSailor
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Below is a link which I have used and trust:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?cSlh ncb

It is a currently active petition, upon which I was approximately the 365,xxx signatory.


Quote from the site:

"The UN treaty on climate change -- our best hope for action -- expires next year. But a... coalition of oil-captured countries is trying to kill it forever. It's staggeringly difficult to believe: they are trading short term profits for the survival of our natural world.

The EU, Brazil and China are all on the fence -- they are not slaves to oil companies the way the US is, but they need to hear a massive call to action from people before they really lead financially and politically to save the UN treaty. The world is gathered at the climate summit for the next 3 days to make the big decision. Let's send our leaders a massive call to stand up to big oil and save the planet -- an Avaaz team at the summit will deliver our call directly. Sign the petition..."


Any comments or questions which you may wish to direct to ME...
please send via Wumail.

CRS
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
364. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Japan quake caused double-wave tsunami

THE massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in March caused a rare "merging tsunami" in which two waves combined to amplify the destruction after landfall, according to NASA.

For the first time ever, US and European radar satellites captured images of the two wave fronts, confirming the existence of the long-hypothesised process, which forms a "single, double-high wave far out at sea."

"This wave was capable of travelling long distances without losing power. Ocean ridges and undersea mountain chains pushed the waves together along certain directions from the tsunami's origin," NASA said in a statement on its website.

"The discovery helps explain how tsunamis can cross ocean basins to cause massive destruction at some locations while leaving others unscathed," it said, adding that the research could help to improve forecasts.

"It was a one-in-10-million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites," said Tony Song, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which partnered with Ohio State University for the study.

"Researchers have suspected for decades that such 'merging tsunamis' might have been responsible for the 1960 Chilean tsunami that killed about 200 people in Japan and Hawaii, but nobody had definitively observed a merging tsunami until now."

The 9.0-magnitude underwater earthquake and tsunami on March 11 left 20,000 people dead or missing, devastated large areas of northeastern Japan and sparked a nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant.


Wow! Thanks for sharing!
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
363. AussieStorm
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:27 (GMT)
Japan quake caused double-wave tsunami

THE massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in March caused a rare "merging tsunami" in which two waves combined to amplify the destruction after landfall, according to NASA.

For the first time ever, US and European radar satellites captured images of the two wave fronts, confirming the existence of the long-hypothesised process, which forms a "single, double-high wave far out at sea."

"This wave was capable of travelling long distances without losing power. Ocean ridges and undersea mountain chains pushed the waves together along certain directions from the tsunami's origin," NASA said in a statement on its website.

"The discovery helps explain how tsunamis can cross ocean basins to cause massive destruction at some locations while leaving others unscathed," it said, adding that the research could help to improve forecasts.

"It was a one-in-10-million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites," said Tony Song, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which partnered with Ohio State University for the study.

"Researchers have suspected for decades that such 'merging tsunamis' might have been responsible for the 1960 Chilean tsunami that killed about 200 people in Japan and Hawaii, but nobody had definitively observed a merging tsunami until now."

The 9.0-magnitude underwater earthquake and tsunami on March 11 left 20,000 people dead or missing, devastated large areas of northeastern Japan and sparked a nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
362. AussieStorm
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:26 (GMT)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.5S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 95.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.0S 99.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 99.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by visible and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Visible imagery during the day showed a curved band pattern with a 1.1 wrap but in recent images a wrap of between 0.8 and 0.9 was obtained, yielding a DT of 3.5. FT was 3.5 but CI held at 4.0. Intensity maintained at 55 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was about 3 knots from the northwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may itensify a little overnight over the diurnally favourable period. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.


Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
361. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:07 (GMT)
Overall warm pattern expected across the SE US!

Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
360. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Corpus Christi, Texas (Airport)
Clear
26 F
Clear
Windchill: 19 F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 21 F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


I wish it would cool off here! High of 84 expected here in Orlando but it is supposed to cool off for about 18 hours or so starting tonight before the wind shifts back from the NE and pushes warm back over FL from the Atlantic.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
359. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.5S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 95.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.0S 99.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 99.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by visible and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Visible imagery during the day showed a curved band pattern with a 1.1 wrap but in recent images a wrap of between 0.8 and 0.9 was obtained, yielding a DT of 3.5. FT was 3.5 but CI held at 4.0. Intensity maintained at 55 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was about 3 knots from the northwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may itensify a little overnight over the diurnally favourable period. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
358. RitaEvac
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Corpus Christi, Texas (Airport)
Clear
26 °F
Clear
Windchill: 19 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
357. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:37 (GMT)
TD TWO 103000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1004.9mb/ 32.0kt

Raw T# 1.5
Adj T# 1.5
Final T# 1.5

Scene Type: SHEAR
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
356. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
TC Alegna, 103000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.2mb/ 59.0kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.4

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION


Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
355. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
im not gonna make a prediction, and i wont be wrong or right xD

I turned on my computer this morning, and almost had a tragedy: CIMSS wasnt loading, lol
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
354. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:32 (GMT)
I'm forecasting 11 to 13 systems 6 to 8 hurricanes with 2 to 3 majors. All indications are pointing to a weak el-nino developing either Sept or Oct and if this does happen then the end of the season could be quiet.
Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
353. TropicalAnalystwx13
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
As long as we're in the active AMO (Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation), more relatively active hurricane seasons should be expected. An active AMO promotes lower wind shear, warmer sea surface temperatures, and low sea level pressures which all add up to make an active season.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
352. WxGeekVA
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:54 (GMT)
WxGeekVA 2012 season predictions

13-17 named storms
6-9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
Member Since: 3.09.2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
351. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1002 hPa) located at 16.0S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system northwesterly sheared, the low level circulation center is now completely exposed. The low level circulation center is now tracking slowly globally westward. It is forecast to go on slowly west northwestward while filling up.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodriques Island Friday.

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
350. TropicalAnalystwx13
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Looks like a completely different area of disturbed weather now opposed to yesterday. I would mention it now.

Note: The extratropical low north of all this convection is expected to combine with it over the next day or two, and then the system as a whole should move west/southwest.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
349. TropicalAnalystwx13
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree! If we get a neutral pattern then I think the US is in for it (BIG TIME). However if El-Nino sets in then we could have another 2009 season.




An El Nino season next year is highly unlikely..It'll probably be Neutral by May or so, which would increase hurricane season activity.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
348. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Rainy times about to settle in across the eastern half of FL.NWS in Melbourne better wake up as they maybe looking at a busted forecast this weekend.



Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
347. StormTracker2K
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CSU releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions today...Should be interesting.


I agree! If we get a neutral pattern then I think the US is in for it (BIG TIME). However if El-Nino sets in then we could have another 2009 season.



Member Since: 26.10.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
346. TropicalAnalystwx13
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:40 (GMT)
CSU releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions today...Should be interesting.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
345. AussieStorm
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 12:34 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Uniontown, KY is fighting flood tonight with broken pumps..

Outer Banks residents hear options to repair N.C. 12

9 Bits and Scenes at a Global Huddle on a Grave Crisis

Earth Networks Announces Major Expansion of Canadian Weather Monitoring and Lightning Network

a href="http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=ev ent_desc&edis_id=ED-20111205-33278-JPN" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">As much as 45 tons of radioactive water leaked from Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear station over the weekend and some may have reached the sea, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The leakage shows the company known as Tepco is still struggling to control the disaster nine months after an earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant. The water contained 1.8 millisieverts per hour of gamma radiation and 110 millisieverts of beta radiation, Tepco said in an e-mailed statement Saturday. "The source of the beta radiation in the water is likely to include strontium 90, which if absorbed in the body through eating tainted seaweed or fish, accumulates in bone and can cause cancer," said Tetsuo Ito, the head of Kinki University's Atomic Energy Research Institute. Since the March 11 disaster, the utility has reported several leaks of radiated water into the sea, though its estimates of their size has been disputed. In October, a French nuclear research institute said the Fukushima plant was responsible for the biggest discharge of radioactive material into the ocean in history. Tepco is still checking whether the water reached the sea, spokeswoman Chie Hosoda said by phone today. The water leaked from a desalination unit and through a cracked concrete wall into a gutter that drains into the Pacific Ocean, she said. Radiated water has now been pumped out of the building where it was leaking from. The study by the French government-funded Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said radioactive cesium that flowed into the sea from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant was 20 times the amount estimated by Tepco. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environmen t-15735625" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">Antarctic's hidden world revealed

Nuclear missile debacle in ND.

& for something that just looks really neat..NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th.


Another link with video's of the radioactive slag.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
344. AussieStorm
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:40 (GMT)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.3S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 91.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 94.1E- 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 98.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.1S 101.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near 90E.

Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable but become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on Friday. The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude trough.






TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 07/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alenga
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.3S
Longitude: 89.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [121 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm [650 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1800: 14.9S 91.6E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 983
+24: 08/0600: 16.0S 94.1E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 981
+36: 08/1800: 17.3S 96.7E: 110 [210]: 050 [095]: 991
+48: 09/0600: 18.5S 98.7E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 996
+60: 09/1800: 19.4S 100.2E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 10/0600: 20.1S 101.0E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near
90E.
Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is
currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during
Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favourable but
become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be
maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system
weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on
Friday.
The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over
the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude
trough.
Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15742
343. aislinnpaps
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:38 (GMT)
Wind chill about 22 degrees, kind of day I'd like to stay home curled up on the couch with a good book. Everyone have a great Wednesday.
Member Since: 22.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
342. JNCali
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:34 (GMT)
Light snow in Memphis heading our way this am... time for some hot cocoa and coffee!
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
341. trunkmonkey
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:32 (GMT)
Listened to a local radio talk show last nite, and the
was greatest lies, very interesting, so I'm going to ask you folks what the greatest lies are?

Number 1. lie was the Kennedy assassination.
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 554
340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:18 (GMT)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.3S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 91.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 94.1E- 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 98.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.1S 101.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near 90E.

Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable but become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on Friday. The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude trough.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
339. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:17 (GMT)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.3S 67.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 66.7E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.1S 65.9E - 20 knots (Low Pressure)

Additional Information
======================

Temporarily burst of deep convection has occurred at the end of the night within the southern part of the circulation, but vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen significantly today. The low level circulation center is now tracking slowly globally westwards. It is forecast to go on slowly west northwestward and weaken.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodrigues Island Friday.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43641
338. CybrTeddy
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:08 (GMT)
Interesting. A feature unlikely to develop, but unique nonetheless.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
337. CybrTeddy
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 11:07 (GMT)
Quoting Dragod66:
18 Tropical Storms
11 hurricanes
4 majors

Is this season neutral...? If it is these are the numbers I have come up with. Wasnt 2005 neutral?


2011 was a weak La Nina.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
336. Dragod66
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 10:35 (GMT)
18 Tropical Storms
11 hurricanes
4 majors

Is this season neutral...? If it is these are the numbers I have come up with. Wasnt 2005 neutral?
Member Since: 24.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 575
335. KoritheMan
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 08:29 (GMT)
Quoting rlwalker:
This report from Bill Gray at Colorado State University won't do any good to sell global warming. He is saying that the entire warning is not true.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Doc uments/Publications/gray2011.pdf


While I understand that Gray is the exact antithesis of a global warming advocate, a brief glance at that thesis reveals that he is only attempting to falsify a possible relationship between anthropogenic global warming and tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, not the theory as a whole.

Just saying, you need to be more precise.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
334. rlwalker
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 08:22 (GMT)
This report from Bill Gray at Colorado State University won't do any good to sell global warming. He is saying that the entire warning is not true.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Doc uments/Publications/gray2011.pdf
Member Since: 12.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
333. KoritheMan
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 08:09 (GMT)
Quoting rlwalker:
The sad thing is that over 50% of our voters believe the conservative line that global warming is a liberal scam. When you point to the scientists they are conveniently labeled as liberals too. Being able to do anything at all about the human element in global warming will be almost impossible unless you can prove absolute danger for that over 50% or their children. Otherwise the heads are in the sand.


That's how humanity operates. Unless it personally affects us, we just don't give a damn.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
332. rlwalker
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 08:07 (GMT)
The sad thing is that over 50% of our voters believe the conservative line that global warming is a liberal scam. When you point to the scientists they are conveniently labeled as liberals too. Being able to do anything at all about the human element in global warming will be almost impossible unless you can prove absolute danger for that over 50% or their children. Otherwise the heads are in the sand.
Member Since: 12.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
331. JLPR2
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 07:18 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
And this is what i was trying to get across to TropicalAnalystwx13.....convection has sustained for about 12 hours(not good enough) LLCC seen here. ANYWAYS. here ya're


That's one interesting post-season disturbance.


Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
330. swflurker
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 07:12 (GMT)
Well, I would rather be it be warmer than colder! Tough to grow plants in an ice age, but here in SWFL, it's been cooler than normal for the past 5 years during the dry season. Lived here for 30 years. JMO
Member Since: 6.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
329. KoritheMan
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:56 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
Man George Strait knows how to make music...


Coming from someone who utterly despises the country genre, I agree.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19117
328. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:45 (GMT)
Man George Strait knows how to make music...
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
327. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:26 (GMT)
And this is what i was trying to get across to TropicalAnalystwx13.....convection has sustained for about 12 hours(not good enough) LLCC seen here. ANYWAYS. here ya're
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
326. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:22 (GMT)
YES. Ascat got Alenga
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
325. SPLbeater
7. joulukuuta 2011 klo 06:14 (GMT)
and, our little TD 02S:
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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