The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season: another strangely active one

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 28. marraskuuta 2011 klo 16:08 (GMT)

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Wednesday marks the final day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, and it was another very odd year. The season featured a huge number of named storms--nineteen--tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. However, 2011 had an unusually low percentage of its named storms reach hurricane strength. The year started out with eight consecutive tropical storms that failed to reach hurricane strength--the first time on record the Atlantic has seen that many storms in row not reach hurricane strength. We had a near-average average number of hurricanes in 2011--seven--meaning that only 37% of this year's named storms made it to hurricane strength. Normally, 55 - 60% of all named storms intensify to hurricane strength in the Atlantic. There were three major hurricanes in 2011, which is one above average, and the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--a measure of the destructive potential of this season's storms--was about 20% above average. The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic is no doubt at least partially responsible for 2011's unusually high count of named storms, but near-average number of hurricanes and ACE. Both 2010 and 2011 had nineteen named storms, making it the second busiest 2-year period in the Atlantic behind 2004 - 2005. Even when one considers that 2 - 4 tropical storms from both 2010 and 2011 would likely have been missed before the advent of satellites, the tropical storm activity of 2010 - 2011 is still very remarkable (in 2011, Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Jose, and the unnamed 19th tropical storm of September 1 would probably have been missed before satellite technology came along, since they were all weak, short-lived storms that did not impact land or shipping.)


FIgure 1. Tracks for the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 2011.

Another below-average hurricane season for the U.S.
For the second consecutive year, despite a near-record number of named storms in the Atlantic, the U.S. had far fewer strikes by tropical storms and hurricanes than average. Favorable steering currents steered most of the storms in 2010 and 2011 past Bermuda and out to sea. During 2010, only one tropical storm hit the U.S., despite a season with the 3rd highest number of named storms--nineteen. Only two named storms hit the U.S. in 2011: Tropical Storm Lee, which hit Louisiana with 60 mph winds, and Hurricane Irene, which hit North Carolina on August 27 with 85 mph winds, and made two additional landfalls in New Jersey and New York the next day. Tropical Storm Don hit Texas on July 29 as a tropical depression and did not count as a landfalling named storm, according to post analysis by NHC. Wind shear and dry air from the Texas drought made Don rapidly weaken before landfall on Padre Island National Seashore north of Brownsville. During the 15-year active hurricane period from 1995 - 2009, 33% of all named storms in the Atlantic hit the U.S., and 30% of all Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. at hurricane strength. The U.S. averaged seeing six named storms per year, with four of them being hurricanes and two being intense hurricanes. Thus, the landfall of only three named storms in a two-year period is a major departure from what happened the previous fifteen years. The past six years is the first six-year period without a major hurricane strike on the U.S. since 1861 - 1868. The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma of October 2005. One caveat to keep in mind, though: Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Gustav of 2008 both hit the U.S. as strong Category 2 hurricanes, and had central pressures characteristic of Category 3 hurricanes. Had these storms occurred more than 65 years ago, before the Hurricane Hunters, Ike and Gustav would likely have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes at landfall (assuming that few quality wind observations would have been available at landfall, which is usually the case.)


Figure 2. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak on August 25, 2011 during Hurricane Irene. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.


Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Irene as seen by hurricane hunter and wunderblogger LRandyB on August 24, 2011, when the hurricane was approaching the Bahama Islands.

The strongest, deadliest and longest-lived storms of 2011
The strongest hurricane of 2011 was Hurricane Ophelia, which peaked as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds and a central pressure of 940 mb on October 2, when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit Southeast Newfoundland as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on October 3, but caused little damage. The strongest hurricane at landfall was Hurricane Irene, whose 120-mph eyewall winds raked Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Wind gusts as high as 140 mph were reported in the Bahamas.The longest-lived storm of 2011 was Hurricane Phillipe, which lasted 15 days, from September 24 to October 8. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Irene, which caused an estimated $7.2 billion in damage from North Carolina to New England, according to re-insurance broker AON Benfield. Irene was also the deadliest storm of 2011, with 55 deaths in the Caribbean and U.S.



Figure 3. Pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal.

Pre-season hurricane forecasts did a decent job
The pre-season Atlantic hurricane season forecasts issued by seven major forecast groups were generally decent. The average of these forecasts called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 150% of normal. The actual numbers were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 120% of normal. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State will be releasing their end-of-season verification and summary of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.


Figure 4. Portlight volunteers at work in Pink Hill, North Carolina, after Hurricane Irene.

Portlight disaster relief efforts for 2011
My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, has posted a summary of their efforts during the hurricane season of 2011. Portlight mobilized in the wake of Hurricane Irene to help out in North Carolina, Delaware, and Maryland on cleanup efforts, food, and supply distribution. Portlight also provided financial assistance to survivors, including a commercial fisherwoman and single mother of two who lost her boat and home in the storm, after having been diagnosed with breast cancer two days before Irene struck. See the portlight blog for the full story; donations are always welcome. Wunderground is proud to be a major sponsor of Portlight again this year.

Next post
On Wednesday, I plan to look at 2011's worst hurricane--Hurricane Irene--and the lesson it should have given us regarding the hurricane vulnerability of New York City.

Jeff Masters

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390. RitaEvac
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
389. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 16:17 (GMT)
New blog.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
388. SPLbeater
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
lets give my view of 90L....i would mostly agree with TropicalAnalystwx13 about development since it is further south then 99L was.....the 850mb vorticy is very much stretched NNW to SSE, but due to wind shear around 20-40kts over the system decreasing on the left side staying idle/increasing on the right, this might consolidate SLOWLY. Here is a Link to the satellite loop, or an image if you prefer for a quick view:)
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
386. SPLbeater
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 16:06 (GMT)
i need to shave xD
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
385. RitaEvac
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
384. SPLbeater
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:55 (GMT)
everybody is going political again, lol.
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
382. RitaEvac
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:51 (GMT)
Polar vortex over Hudson Bay starting to rotate around, looks to not bring motherload into lower 48 except small pieces, but after the 16th towards Christmas it's possible for that polar vortex to swing back around west and south bringing Major Arctic Outbreak after the 16th to Christmas
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
381. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:45 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


This really makes NO Difference What company.


I totally agree.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
380. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:44 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:
This blog drives me crazy how the 90% on here think so differently than what the 70% of the rest of the ConUs believe and think! My wife says Xmas has to go up today so i gotta get going. Have a good day and get rid of those you don't trust and honor you!


Good luck with the Christmas decorations. May your weather be ideally suited for it.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
379. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:42 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You do realize that we are talking about Wal-Mart, do you not?

Should my company be on a sound public footing, then no, I would not fear any truthful comments an employee would say about the company. As long as this employee satisfied the responsibilities of their job then this is what I would require of them. Would I be looking to advance then within the company. No, they would have burned that bridge. Realistically, they will eliminate themselves anyway and usually in short order.


This really makes NO Difference What company.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
378. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:40 (GMT)
This blog drives me crazy how the 90% on here think so differently than what the 70% of the rest of the ConUs believe and think! My wife says Xmas has to go up today so i gotta get going. Have a good day and get rid of those you don't trust and honor you!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
377. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:37 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


So your gonna allow a company you run, to allow your employees to come on a open forum and tell the world what a horrible place it is to work for......LOL...OK! Good LUCK!


You do realize that we are talking about Wal-Mart, do you not?

Should my company be on a sound public footing, then no, I would not fear any truthful comments an employee would say about the company. As long as this employee satisfied the responsibilities of their job then this is what I would require of them. Would I be looking to advance then within the company. No, they would have burned that bridge. Realistically, they will eliminate themselves anyway and usually in short order.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
375. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:34 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

It occurs to me that by simply changing just a few words, that could read like a passage right out of the DPRK playbook:

"...to allow a citizen to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by a government to have a citizen bash its government in open forum. Any nation that would allow such practice would not ever be a nation for long..."

"Shoot the messenger" is always the practice of last resort for despots, whether they govern a nation or a business.


OMG......ROFLMAO
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
374. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:32 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:


There is underwater volcanoes/vents in the area as the other area in Central Atl. There is that underwater exploding one off Africa. I wunder if their resolution got better or if the over all movement of water is being that much more disturbed by the erupting volcano.


I can't believe ya'll are still arguing about working for Walmart..

Some seem to have forgotten we are talking about Walmart..or doesn't know anyone that has had the misfortune of working there. It's an evil corporation that squeezes dimes from the product manufacturers, shippers, employees & customers...not some mom & pop being unfairly slammed. They have a reputation for a reason. Yeah they can fire him at anytime..

On the other hand we have our wunderblogger..we've come to know over the years. You are not your Dad. You don't have the responsibilities of life yet that would force you to swallow it... Run boy. Even if you end up unemployed a bit..it might be the lesson that causes you to make the life you want, cause a corporation isn't likely just to hand that to you.



I kinda thought it might have been from all the UnderWater Volcanic activity there. History also shows some very unexpected Rogue Waves that also occur in that area.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
373. Neapolitan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:31 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.

It occurs to me that by simply changing just a few words, that could read like a passage right out of the DPRK playbook:

"...to allow a citizen to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by a government to have a citizen bash its government in open forum. Any nation that would allow such practice would not ever be a nation for long..."

"Shoot the messenger" is always the practice of last resort for despots, whether they govern a nation or a business.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
372. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:29 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I disagree, with respect as to which company (Wal-Mart) this conversation was started over. Did this person say anything that is not already common knowledge among all of us? I would have to say, no. So how could this person's comments be deemed as destructive towards the company in question? .... "Loyalty" will always comes with some degree of risk, for all parties involved.


So your gonna allow a company you run, to allow your employees to come on a open forum and tell the world what a horrible place it is to work for......LOL...OK! Good LUCK!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
371. Skyepony (Mod)
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:28 (GMT)
90L!...I called it days ago:)

Quoting TampaSpin:


What do you think caused that too happen off the Coast of Africa?


There is underwater volcanoes/vents in the area as the other area in Central Atl. There is that underwater exploding one off Africa. I wunder if their resolution got better or if the over all movement of water is being that much more disturbed by the erupting volcano.


I can't believe ya'll are still arguing about working for Walmart..

Some seem to have forgotten we are talking about Walmart..or doesn't know anyone that has had the misfortune of working there. It's an evil corporation that squeezes dimes from the product manufacturers, shippers, employees & customers...not some mom & pop being unfairly slammed. They have a reputation for a reason. Yeah they can fire him at anytime..

On the other hand we have our wunderblogger..we've come to know over the years. You are not your Dad. You don't have the responsibilities of life yet that would force you to swallow it... Run boy. Even if you end up unemployed a bit..it might be the lesson that causes you to make the life you want, cause a corporation isn't likely just to hand that to you.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
370. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:23 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.


I disagree, with respect as to which company (Wal-Mart) this conversation was started over. Did this person say anything that is not already common knowledge among all of us? I would have to say, no. So how could this person's comments be deemed as destructive towards the company in question? .... "Loyalty" will always come with some degree of risk, for all parties involved.
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
369. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:22 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
368. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Should a company's reputation be on sound footing then a few Facebook comments would be meaningless, by anyone. Should the company suffer from poor public respect, due to the company's business practices, then everyone will be saying bad things about the company. Either way, a public criticism of a company will be received, by the public, based upon the company's public reputation and not by what anyone else says about them. .... Since "companies are people too", then perhaps they would benefit by being a little less thin skinned? Else, what are they hiding?

Just my 2 cents and I bump the ante 1 cent. ;-)



Good point for anyone else other than their own Employee. But, to allow an Employee to do such a thing opens the door for more to follow...IT CAN'T BE ALLOWED and should not ever be tolerated by an Employer to have a company Employee bash its company in open forum. Any company that would allow such practice would not ever be in practice long or would never make it to bigger and better places.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
367. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.


Should a company's reputation be on sound footing then a few Facebook comments would be meaningless, by anyone. Should the company suffer from poor public respect, due to the company's business practices, then everyone will be saying bad things about the company. Either way, a public criticism of a company will be received, by the public, based upon the company's public reputation and not by what anyone else says about them. .... Since "companies are people too", then perhaps they would benefit by being a little less thin skinned? Else, what are they hiding?

Just my 2 cents and I bump the ante 1 cent. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
366. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:08 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")



Again, yes to dismiss someone for badmouthing their company in an open forum.....IS GROUNDS FOR TERMINATION.....WOW...the way the Liberal Left think.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
365. crandles
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 15:02 (GMT)
I said "Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time..."

Neopolitan replied
"My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs."

Fair enough, I agree a certain level of trust is needed. So there would be no chance of you working for me? Even if I went on to explain that my view of what is disproportionate would, in absense of particularly high risks or noticing warning signals basically be nothing more than an occasional web search on the company name that I would do from time to time anyway. If there was reason for me to suspect something was wrong then could I honestly claim I wouldn't in any circumstance decide I might need further research like more web searches and asking some questions?

Maybe that wasn't the impression I gave by my disproportionate to risk phase, but I didn't feel it worth detailing such a subjective opinion of what I meant by disproportionate earlier. FWIW I don't feel I am backtracking here, just explaining what I meant. In retrospect, I probably should have ruled out anything illegal ealier.
Member Since: 26.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
364. JNCali
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;)

inconceivable!
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
363. Neapolitan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.

I suppose those companies with long histories of mistreating workers--and they are legion--would be very sensitive to criticism, and would thus be far more likely to spend piles of cash not improving working conditions, but rather trolling private communications to be sure no one has a bad word to say about them, and pouncing with fury on those who do.

Those companies that treat their workers with respect, on the other hand, have no need to resort to such low-handed tricks; they know that of all the best ways to enhance worker productivity, Big Brother-ish stalking isn't one of them. And if someone does complain, they listen to see whether there's any merit to that complaint, and to see how they can fix it. What they don't do is break out the whip and make an example out of the complainant as a means of silencing criticism from any others who'd dare speak up.

Just my two cents, as well.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
362. Xyrus2000
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:23 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:


...But hey, the USA is the land of the free! or so they say... ;)


You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;)
Member Since: 31.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1224
361. SPLbeater
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:18 (GMT)
Quoting JNCali:

There has always been and always be a level of criticism leveled at those in charge,(Ecclesiastes 7:21(This is a reference from the Bible for you younger folk) addresses this 3K years ago) some warranted some not. hanging out with co-workers inevitable leads to making fun of the boss' latest memo, hair cut, etc.. When it comes to actionable dialogue it gets very subjective. Where is the line drawn between having fun or letting of steam, and intentional slander meant to cause harm to the company? I for one have always placed a high value on maintaining open communication with supervisors as well as subordinates. If someone is truly unhappy in their work they need to find a different position or employer for their sake as well as their employer's.


Also Leviticus 19:18 the Lord says to love your neighbor as yourself, if i may throw that in:D
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
360. SPLbeater
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)

Not bad, lol
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
359. JNCali
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.

There has always been and always be a level of criticism leveled at those in charge,(Ecclesiastes 7:21(This is a reference from the Bible for you younger folk) addresses this 3K years ago) some warranted some not. hanging out with co-workers inevitable leads to making fun of the boss' latest memo, hair cut, etc.. When it comes to actionable dialogue it gets very subjective. Where is the line drawn between having fun or letting of steam, and intentional slander meant to cause harm to the company? I for one have always placed a high value on maintaining open communication with supervisors as well as subordinates. If someone is truly unhappy in their work they need to find a different position or employer for their sake as well as their employer's.
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
358. PensacolaDoug
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


So let me get this correct....if you owned a private business and you had an employee that off the job was dumping on your business and yourself......you would still keep them employed. That is real good business sense!

I would exercise my freedom of speech and tell them which door they can use.




You're on solid footing with this one Tampa. Biting the hand that feeds you is a fine reason to get dumped. People who don't see it that way, don't run a business or are being intellectually dishonest.

Also: Complaining in private about your job or boss to your wife or a couple of close friends is one thing, Doing it publically and loudly or on Facebook or other social media to the detriment of the company you work for is a completely different animal. Furthermore it shows the complainer in a very bad light as well.

My two cents.
Member Since: 25.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
357. TropicalAnalystwx13
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
356. Neapolitan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:45 (GMT)
Quoting crandles:


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.

My personal bottom line is that I'd never care to work for a company with such a high level of mistrust. An employer/employee relationship is in some respects similar to any other relationship; there has to be a certain level of trust for things to work. Absent that trust, I won't waste my time, nor theirs.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
355. WxGeekVA
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111301221
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


We have 90L!!!! Yay! The season goes on!
Member Since: 3.09.2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
354. Neapolitan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:40 (GMT)
FWIW:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201111301221
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011112912, , BEST, 0, 189N, 597W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011112918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 593W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113000, , BEST, 0, 210N, 590W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113006, , BEST, 0, 221N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011113012, , BEST, 0, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 240, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 325, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
353. TropicalAnalystwx13
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:38 (GMT)
I think 90L has the potential to become a Subtropical cyclone over the next few days, maybe a better one than 99L did since its farther south, over warmer waters, and not connected to any fronts.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30245
352. GeoffreyWPB
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:32 (GMT)
AL, 90, 2011113012, 231N, 589W, 35, 1004, LO



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF NEAR
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.

Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10577
351. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:26 (GMT)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEPRESSION ARB04-2011
11:30 AM IST November 30 2011
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, ARB04-2011 over east central and adjoining areas of west central Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lays centered over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea near 17.5N 63.5E, or 1000 km west-southwest of Mumbai (India), 600 km southeast of Masirah (Oman) and 950 km south-southwest of Karachi(Pakistan).

The system is likely to move northwestwards and maintain the same intensity for some time.
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
350. Cotillion
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:26 (GMT)
Quoting crandles:


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.


Different cultures. I'm a lot more fond of the European way of considering employment, though as someone from the UK, that's maybe not surprising.

But hey, the USA is the land of the free! or so they say... ;)
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
349. crandles
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:22 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")


Personally I don't think the digging should be disproportionate to the risk. Better to spend time at initial meeting pointing out relevant clauses in contract so all parties are clear on what is not acceptable. Of course, views on what is disproportionate will vary.

Re "as soon as I found out! PERIOD!"

No, as soon as I found out employee would get memo stating what matters were going to be investigated with a view to considering whether any disciplinary procedures were warranted and if the employee wanted any matters to be considered they should inform the relevant person preferably but not necessarily in writing. They would still have a job for at least a week and possibly longer.

Don't know about US but even if laws allowed dismissal without giving reason, I would tend to think that would be a bad idea. But maybe that's mainly due to the UK employment tribunal implications that don't apply in US.
Member Since: 26.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
348. WxGeekVA
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:19 (GMT)
OMG!!!! One day left in the 2011 hurricane season!!!!!!!! Oh Noes!!!!!! Paniiiiiiiic!!!!!
Until June at least :P
Member Since: 3.09.2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
347. Cotillion
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 12:09 (GMT)
More deep lows on the way. A 943mb low to the east of Greenland and another couple of 960mb lows on track for the next week.

Seems a little early for such deep lows, but it happens.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
346. Neapolitan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 11:48 (GMT)
Quoting trunkmonkey:


If I owned a company or even was the CEO and sold a product, had an employee the company, it could be damaging to the reputation, and effected sales, that person would be looking for another job, as soon as I found out! PERIOD!
My last two jobs, if I talked down about the company, I would be suspended, or terminated.

And how deep would your digging go? Out of paranoia, would you hire someone to (or spend hours yourself) keeping tabs on your employees' facebook profiles and twitter accounts? Would you wiretap their telephones? Hack into their personal email accounts? Go through their garbage looking for snippets of paper that might mention your company? Clandestinely seat yourself near them in public places such as theaters and restaurants so you could eavesdrop on their conversations?

Again, I'm not talking about badmouthing one's employer on the clock, or in an official capacity of any kind. I'm talking about a guy complaining to his buddies around a barbecue--or griping on a weather blog forum--on a Saturday, then being dismissed when he arrives at work on Monday. If anyone is comfortable with that, by all means please speak up.

(FWIW, my original comment was in response to a person who replied to someone who'd complained about his job at Wal-Mart by saying, "You better hope Walmart Management does not see this.....GOOD THING I DON'T MANAGE FOR THEM.....YOU WOULD BE POOOOFFF!")
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
345. trunkmonkey
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 11:20 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Unsurprisingly, you missed the point. Again. I'm not talking about the legality of firing someone for badmouthing an employer on their own time; I'm talking about the un-American-ness of it. If some are comfortable with employers (or politicians, or police, or whomever) listening in on their every conversation to be sure nothing bad gets said about them, perhaps they'd find North Korea more to their liking.


If I owned a company or even was the CEO and sold a product, had an employee the company, it could be damaging to the reputation, and effected sales, that person would be looking for another job, as soon as I found out! PERIOD!
My last two jobs, if I talked down about the company, I would be suspended, or terminated.
Member Since: 18.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 557
344. crandles
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 09:56 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
"But if an employee wishes to badmouth his employer after hours and in an unofficial capacity, he should be able to do so without fear of recrimination"

Quoting TampaSpin
"Sorry but you are completely WRONG.....you can be released for making such slandering statements.....in MOST STATES! Heck in Florida you don't even have to tell anyone why you are released."

I'm from UK so maybe ignore me.

Is that 'you don't even have to tell anyone why you are releasing an employee'? if only about why you are released then that is relevant to chance of re-employment but not relevant to any attempt to dismiss.

I take badmouth to be potentially different from slander. Speaking only truthfully can be a defence against accusation of slander AFAIK. Badmouth might be true and not slander, in which case employer may be better giving a warning than making too much of it. I certainly wouldn't want to rely on that as an employee though.
Member Since: 26.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
343. VAbeachhurricanes
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 07:05 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Contract....most employees do not work under any contract! I have been an HR Manager for over 30 years for one the largest companies in this nation and i rarely ever pay unemployment for dismissing an employee! It called MISCONDUCT.....that includes on and off the job. Not much different than getting a DUI off work and getting released. Its really that simple.


It's not hard to write a contract... if it states they can't so something and they do it then fire them. And its nothing like a DUI ones breaking the law, ones not.
Member Since: 6.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
342. KoritheMan
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 07:04 (GMT)
Philippe's report is done. Still hoping to finish this blog by tomorrow, although that's unlikely:


Hurricane Philippe

September 24 - October 9

Philippe was a long-lived tropical cyclone that eventually became a hurricane over the western Atlantic.

Philippe developed from a vigorous tropical wave that crossed the coast of Africa on September 22. The wave was accompanied by deep convection and a well-defined low-level circulation. The low-latitude tropical wave moved westward and developed into a tropical depression near 0900 UTC September 24 while centered about 290 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. The depression became a tropical storm around 1800 UTC that day while centered about 350 miles southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Although Philippe intensified somewhat, satellite imagery suggests that northerly shear associated with the back side of an upper-level trough inhibited significant strengthening for the first couple of days. Although Philippe escaped from this trough on September 26, northwesterly shear emanating from outflow associated with Hurricane Ophelia squashed the cyclone, causing weakening. Indeed, Philippe was barely of tropical storm strength through much of September 27 and 28. Thereafter, the cyclone slowly intensified under a somewhat lighter synoptic shearing regime, and the storm was just under hurricane strength early on October 1.

As Philippe recurved, it intensified, becoming a hurricane around 1200 UTC October 6 while located about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Philippe reached its peak intensity of 80 kt near 0000 UTC October 7, at which time the cyclone is estimated to have been located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane slowly weakened thereafter as it accelerated northeast in mid-latitude southwesterly flow associated with a large amplitude trough to the west, and Philippe weakened to a tropical storm around 1800 UTC October 7. Interaction with this trough caused extratropical transition to occur around 0000 UTC October 9 while located about 1000 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Member Since: 7.03.2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
341. Vincent4989
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 06:54 (GMT)
*LOG ENTRY NOVEMBER 30, 2011*
This is professor Vincent, date 30/11/11.

So..... this is it, it's november 30, hurricanes will not appear anymore. People start posting post-season blogs. They start discussing climate change, global warming and nonsense stuff.

TL;DR: End of the season.

*END TRANSMISSION*
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
340. TampaSpin
30. marraskuuta 2011 klo 06:46 (GMT)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


unless it strictly says you can't in the contract then yes, and if its not. Then rewrite one that does.


Contract....most employees do not work under any contract! I have been an HR Manager for over 30 years for one the largest companies in this nation and i rarely ever pay unemployment for dismissing an employee! It called MISCONDUCT.....that includes on and off the job. Not much different than getting a DUI off work and getting released. Its really that simple.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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