95L drenching the Keys, could develop into a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17. lokakuuta 2011 klo 14:12 (GMT)

Share this Blog
23
+

A large low pressure system centered about 100 miles north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Invest 95L, is bringing heavy rains to Western Cuba and South Florida. Rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches have been common across South Florida since Saturday; Miami has picked up 3.40" as of 10 am EDT this morning, and Key West Naval Air Facility recorded 9.72". Rains of 5 - 8 inches have fallen over much of the Florida Keys and Central Cuba since Sunday, according to radar rainfall estimates from the Key West Radar. Long-range radar out of Key West shows rain is affecting most of South Florida south of Fort Myers, but there is no obvious spin to the echoes, and no evidence of organized spiral bands forming. Satellite loops show that 95L has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is increasing in areal coverage. There is no evidence of a well-formed surface circulation trying to develop, though surface observations in the Western Caribbean do show that 95L has a broad counter-clockwise circulation. Two ships to the north of 95L's center measured sustained winds in excess of 30 mph this morning, but no land stations are reporting sustained winds over 30 mph. Water temperatures over the regions are near 29°C, which is plenty warm to support a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending 8 am Saturday October 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Wind shear over 95L is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range through Tuesday night. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and has scheduled a hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate the system this afternoon at 2 pm EDT. The models are generally showing only weak development of 95L. The storm is currently moving north at 5 - 10 mph, but should turn to the northeast by Tuesday afternoon, as it gets caught up by an approaching trough of low pressure. This trough should pull 95L into the west coast of Florida on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning between Fort Myers and St. Marks. Portions of southwest Florida could receive up to 5 inches of rain from 95L; locations to the north of Tampa will less rain, due to the large amount of dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico that will affect the northwestern portion of the storm. Once 95L meets up with the trough, wind shear will rise sharply, and it is unlikely 95L will be able to grow any stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm before landfall occurs. It is more likely that 95L will have top winds of 35 - 45 mph Tuesday night near the time of landfall.

Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic, 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 722 - 672

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

722. Hurricane1956
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:


You mean blob not blog right ?
Sorry for the typo yes I mean blob.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
721. aspectre
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:56 (GMT)
Invest95L's_18Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 17Oct_12pmGMT and ending 18Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the straightline connecting the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 16.2mph(26k/h) on a heading of 31.4degrees(NNE)
(33.75degrees is midway between NNE and NE)

Copy&paste tzm, isj, lcl, 22.3n89.0w-21.6n89.2w, 21.6n89.2w-21.6n89.1w, 21.6n89.1w-22.8n89.0w, 22.8n89.0w-24.0n88.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 18Oct_6amGMT
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
720. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting ITCZmike:
Blah, blah, blah...

Okay, who kicked the rotting log? ;-)

Anyway: NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
719. Sfloridacat5
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Big picture showing rain speading northward.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
717. RukusBoondocks
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Just called out from work.......Im gonna stay in bed all day and watch 95 go over my house and then Im gonna eat mcdonalds for dinner and go back to bed
Member Since: 13.02.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
716. DookiePBC
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:38 (GMT)
Yeah...lots of rain in the Boynton / Lake Worth area this morning. Which is ironic since the nontropical / tropical whatchamacallit from last weekend dropped 0.01 inch of rain on us.

My son is very disappointed that his football practice will be canceled, since the field is a muddy swamp. I kinda understand...what 7 year old wouldn't want to play football in this!!

Member Since: 1.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 447
715. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
I would think the term "very nasty" is a bit too harsh, just regular thunderstorms Florida gets all the time.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
714. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.


You mean blob not blog right ?
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
713. RukusBoondocks
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
at least we got some tropical excitement this year even if it is an invest.
Member Since: 13.02.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294
712. Sfloridacat5
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.


As mentioned, the "big blob" will be speading northward throughout the day.
You can already see rain starting to form in the northeast GOM and rain is about to start moving into the Tampa region.
Expect heavy rain to form north of that area (over Northern Fl.) later this afternoon.
But the main focus of the rain this afternoon should be over central Fl (Tampa area) with 2"-4" expected.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
711. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Actually according to JAX NWS a warm front moving north is the focus of storms right now....


"MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT"

It's a complicated situation, as the low is supposed to come over tonight too.


Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
710. Sfloridacat5
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:30 (GMT)
The rainfall will be spreading northward across Fl as the day goes on. The Low is finally moving to the N.E. and it is pulling the moisture north with it.

Heavy rain should be moving into the Tampa area later on this morning.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
709. stillwaiting
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:30 (GMT)
baro low forming ahead of the frontbmid center gom,can be seen on vis loop,looks like everything,moisture shield,llc and baro low moving to the east as tge front is already off tx shorline,another nada for my area,alot of fluff as usual,i expect 1-2 inches here in srq maybe winds around 25-30 mph when the prefrontal trough comes thru ,i doubt anyting doubious for my area, maybe a isolated tornado in central fl
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
708. Hurricane1956
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The front that is currently sweeping into louisiana will provide the rest of the state with severe weather.
Thank you,but the weather that the front coming down it's not related to this big blog that we have to our West moving toward South Florida correct?,wondering if this big blog will cross South Florida tonite or tomorrow??, a lot of very nasty weather with this system.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
707. eddye
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)
when is the bad weather coming 2 jacksonville and ow cold is it supposed too get
Member Since: 12.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1204
706. FLWeatherFreak91
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good morning!! don't understand why people are talking about nasty bad weather for North Florida?,all the nasty bad weather as shown in the radar presentation is heading East toward South Florida & the Keys.The low North of the Yucatan Peninsula is insignificant,don't have any convetion!!.
The front that is currently sweeping into louisiana will provide the rest of the state with severe weather.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
705. Sfloridacat5
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Heaviest rain still well offshore, but increasing in strength over S.W. Fl.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
704. BoyntonBeachFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
So far, 2.20" of rain in Boynton Beach with lots of heavy rain moving northward from Broward County.
Member Since: 18.02.2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
703. niederwaldboy
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting SLU:


If only it would team up with the convection we'd have a tropical storm today.


you sound dissapointed?
Member Since: 31.01.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
702. Sfloridacat5
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
The "vortexl/low" was always there. Its just easier to see now that the sun is shining down on it.

Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4785
701. SLU
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:
Er that vortex is back !



If only it would team up with the convection we'd have a tropical storm today.
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4733
700. Cotillion
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


And good morning to you too!

I'm pretty sure I made no reference to climate change. Anyone who has ever followed my posts over the years know that I take a neutral stance to that topic.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
699. Hurricane1956
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Hello good morning!! don't understand why people are talking about nasty bad weather for North Florida?,all the nasty bad weather as shown in the radar presentation is heading East toward South Florida & the Keys.The low North of the Yucatan Peninsula is insignificant,don't have any convetion!!.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
698. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You were the first to find that yesterday too!


I was pretty sure it had dissapated.
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
697. whepton3
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


congrats, made my list.

Tornado warning that was canceled had a bigtime hook to it right at Atlantis...

Just shows what today might hold.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
696. FLWeatherFreak91
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
Quoting MahFL:
Er that vortex is back !

You were the first to find that yesterday too!
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
695. islander101010
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
they have had an outbreak of flu in latin america just recent wonder if there will be a virus outbreak after the system leaves florida
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
694. stillwaiting
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:56 (GMT)
visible shows a hot tower like convection about 100miles west of kw???,looks like a mlv moving nne,could be some nastiee if it comes ashore imo,maybe 50mph+ winds and waterspoyt or tornado
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
693. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:55 (GMT)
Er that vortex is back !

Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
692. floridafisherman
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:55 (GMT)
post # 684 good job being added to my iggy list. your comment to cotillion was rude and uncalled for. NOWHERE idd he meantion AGW. nor did he state this has never happened before. he just said that it was one of the most interesting weather years in a long time. and with the flooding, the earlier tornado outbreaks, the above average hurricane season, and widespread droughts, i have to agree with him
Member Since: 28.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 547
691. FLWeatherFreak91
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like our big blob wants to go east today notice the added strong blow up of the conection to the west now forming could this increase the expected rain fall for south fla or will it ripped apart befor it crosses the state tia
Severe thunderstorms can be expected state-wide this afternoon, and especially in west central Florida depending on how much progress the gulf low makes before meeting with the jet stream.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
690. islander101010
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:51 (GMT)
Quoting SLU:
Two "tropical storms" for Florida in about one week.

definitely tropical so humid right now everything on the porch is slightly wet even though the two systems thankfully did not develop something to remember
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
689. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Tornado Warning cancelled for Palm Beach County.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
688. TropicTraveler
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Quoting ITCZmike:

Let me guess Cotillion, it's because of AGW, right? There you go about belching that non-sense about how this was never seen before. First it was more storms, now more frequent storms, now storms that just fizzle. Huh?

Save for Global Warming garbage for another day.


What on earth are you talking about? Cotillion is invariably courteous to everyone - what provoked this rude attack on him?
Member Since: 24.07.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 919
687. 7544
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:40 (GMT)
morning all looks like our big blob wants to go east today notice the added strong blow up of the conection to the west now forming could this increase the expected rain fall for south fla or will it ripped apart befor it crosses the state tia
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
686. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
685. BenBIogger
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:34 (GMT)
Member Since: 19.03.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
683. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Miami NWS Discussion

STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
...BECOMING WINDY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
682. JBirdFireMedic
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:30 (GMT)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Are you interested in tracking the squall line or the front specifically?

If you want to see where the squall line is, use visible satellite or a radar out of LA.

If you want to see where the front is, use the wundermap on this site and turn on the temp and wind option. Look for the wind shift that occurs behind the front.


Wondermap does the trick, thank you!
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
681. MahFL
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:28 (GMT)
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.





Or you could go outside and watch it pass.....
Member Since: 9.06.2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2906
680. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:25 (GMT)
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* significant weather advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County

* until 845 am EDT

* at 813 am EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong shower over Boynton Beach... and moving north at 15
mph. Funnel clouds are possible.

* The shower will affect...
Boynton Beach...
Lake Worth...
Greenacres City...
and surrounding communities.

Radar shows rotation within this strong shower... and this shower
is developing in an environment favorable for funnel clouds and
possible tornadoes.

Residents near the path of should remain on the alert for additional
statements and possible warnings.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
679. FLWeatherFreak91
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:23 (GMT)
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.
Are you interested in tracking the squall line or the front specifically?

If you want to see where the squall line is, use visible satellite or a radar out of LA.

If you want to see where the front is, use the wundermap on this site and turn on the temp and wind option. Look for the wind shift that occurs behind the front.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
678. JBirdFireMedic
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:20 (GMT)
Anyone have any experience and resources to track a cold front? Trying to get a near live idea where the cold front is in Louisiana coming offshore into the GOM.
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
677. Cotillion
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:18 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since all this started, Naples has received 1.07"--leaving us just under 18" below normal for the year--while Fort Myers has received 0.75", and Key West has seen an official 10.36". Much more is on the way, of course.


Get your canoe ready?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This season HAS been the year of Wind shear and low Vertical Instability. Regardless, a few storms have managed to take advantage of the conditions and become strong systems (Irene, Katia, Ophelia).


I'd say this season has been one of the most interesting and memorable from a meteorological perspective of the last twenty five years.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
676. FLWeatherFreak91
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:16 (GMT)
Quoting luvtogolf:


Beginning to wonder how much we get out of this in the Tampa area. Our rain chances for yesterday was 70% and 80% overnight and the rain shield is no closer than it was 24hours ago. To me is looks as if the rain is moving more East than North. I think we'll get something here but nothing nearly as much as was forecast.
We will still get a lot of nasty weather from this system... All of that rain over South Florida is just from the sheared tops of the storms out over the Gulf that will eventually be right over us after the front scoops everything up and shunts it towards the coast.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
675. Neapolitan
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:13 (GMT)
Since all this started, Naples has received 1.07"--leaving us just under 18" below normal for the year--while Fort Myers has received 0.75", and Key West has seen an official 10.36". Much more is on the way, of course.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
674. GeoffreyWPB
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:07 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
673. SLU
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:05 (GMT)
Two "tropical storms" for Florida in about one week.

Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4733
672. TropicalAnalystwx13
18. lokakuuta 2011 klo 12:05 (GMT)
This season HAS been the year of Wind shear and low Vertical Instability. Regardless, a few storms have managed to take advantage of the conditions and become strong systems (Irene, Katia, Ophelia).
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30254

Viewing: 722 - 672

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
52 °F
Selkeää