Jova and TD-12E kill 18 in Mexico, Guatemala
Hurricane Jova has dissipated, but its remnants continues to dump heavy rains over Mexico's coastal mountains near Puerto Vallarta. Jova made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast at 10 pm PDT Tuesday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, and was the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast since Hurricane Jimena hit Baja as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in 2009. Jova's torrential rains triggered flooding and mudslides that have killed five people so far in Mexico. Jova's highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday occurred in Coquimatlan, located in the state of Colima, about 30 miles northeast of Manzanillo. Coquimatlan recorded 374.4 mm (14.74") of rain on Tuesday, according to the Mexican weather service. This is not far below the all-time record hurricane rainfall for Colima state, which is 15.57", set in 1998 during Hurricane Javier.
Another significant rainfall threat is the remains Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border yesterday afternoon. TD-12E is being blamed for the deaths of thirteen people in Guatemala, due to flooding, mudslides, and electrocutions from downed power lines. Tropical Depression Irwin, which is headed eastwards towards the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova affected, is expected to dissipate before reaching the coast. It is unlikely Irwin will bring significant rains to Mexico.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Jova (upper right) and Tropical Storm Irwin (lower left) taken at 1:30 pm EDT October 12, 2011. At the time, Jova had 65 mph winds, and Irwin had 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and received a direct hit from Jova's eye. His final report; "Found a small building north of La Manzanilla directly in path of Hurricane Jova's eye. No power, only iPhone battery and still cell service for now. We will get a direct hit here but no lights to see anything to film. Waves are large and crashing on building. Only going to get worse !! Sorry no photos yet, today was actually nice all day and right at dark wind picked up and knocked out power."
Quiet in the Atlantic
Many of the computer models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could come from the remains of TD 12-E.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You too Pat, thanks.
Well Levi, things have finally set up like you have been discussing, the next few days will be interesting. Thanks for your input too.
Ya just never know what is going to happen in October. I'm going to discuss this storm and its sudden appearance in a couple days.
GFS develops the low but moves it westward across the Yucatan.
We're watching it in S. FL for the next several days it appears.
Interesting to view this:
and then this:
and then this:
And you can see how deceptive the convection can make things.
Though i mean we have seen Franklin and Jose. Just Sayin...
Though pre95L is looking ready to organize, wonder what DMIN will do to it.
The CIMSS product can't see underneath cirrus canopies, and where there are thunderstorms, there is at least some low-level convergence. There is no way around that. It's not a perfect product but it is very helpful for a lot of situations.
I believe Wilma was one of the fastest developing storms in history.
Have you ever used Dr. Masters hurricane archive ? Its easy to use and a great resource. I saved the entire thing years ago and keep it updated. I even broke out storms that affected Florida to make referencing easy. Its on the right hand side of the Topical Weather page. Just choose your year of interest and viola! you are there.
You betcha! -to quote your former governor.
There's clearly something going on under there.
Looking forward to seeing how hard all the models bite over the next few runs.
A quick check of a few other guys keep it lingering down near the Yucatan.
If this does get pulled to FL, expect some much cooler temps for the mid to late part of the next week.
will keep our weather eys on it
I had just noted that as well... none of the models really have the hots for this... yet.
S. FL NWS discussion is pointing out the dubious model consistency tonight:
THE 12Z NAM ACTUALLY DEPICTS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SW OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND THEN FORMING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF CUBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DISPARITIES AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR INCONSISTENCIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
Interesting... and worth a chuckle:
"THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER."
Almost sounds like they're trying to prevent the inevitable "why aren't they making this an invest?/why won't they up the development probability?" posts on the WUblog.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.
why still 10%?
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
Well...
I would expect however, if this trend continues tonight, that either by 2am or 8am tomorrow, those chances would become a medium probability.
That's Avila and Berg for you.
The answer is in the last sentence.
"This weather pattern in a common occurrence in the Western Caribbean Sea during October."
They're just like the models... withholding judgment it appears.
Well, this system is not going to spin up overnight.
Broad low means we don't really know where a tigher center will form, if one forms, but the mess should tend to stay focused west of the Caymans. That doesn't mean you won't get rain though.
It won't take forever either.
I mean, a 5 mbar. drop in 24 hours?
that doesn't answer my question. They're trying to say that the system is better organized and yet they keep the chances at 10%
Well no, it's likely not going to take several days, but we aren't going to see a surface circulation form underneath the convective mass within the next 12 hours. This is not a Wilma type situation, since some of the circulation is overland.
In short, they could have increased the percentages some, but a big jump would be unreasonable.
Link
For what it's worth, it was the first to predict Lee's genesis.
What do you mean by "Thank Goodness" I happen to live in South Florida. :P
I'm not sure they're really saying it's better organized.
Just that we've really got the t-storms popping and there's a lot of falling pressures around the W. Caribbean, but it's not really organized.
stay tuned, it could get interesting here pretty quick though.
One man's meat is another man's poison.
It has some excellent ideas at times...usually overdone ideas but still excellent in form.
Sound familiar... hmmmm
I would've went with 30%.
IDK, they are calling for lows in the mid 30's for us here in MS by Wed.
LOL.
It looks like we have something to watch. This could be an interesting week. Where is your blog on this one Kori?
Shear has fallen quite abit also.
Quite a bite of west winds also!
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