Jova and TD-12E kill 18 in Mexico, Guatemala
Hurricane Jova has dissipated, but its remnants continues to dump heavy rains over Mexico's coastal mountains near Puerto Vallarta. Jova made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast at 10 pm PDT Tuesday night as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, and was the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast since Hurricane Jimena hit Baja as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds in 2009. Jova's torrential rains triggered flooding and mudslides that have killed five people so far in Mexico. Jova's highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday occurred in Coquimatlan, located in the state of Colima, about 30 miles northeast of Manzanillo. Coquimatlan recorded 374.4 mm (14.74") of rain on Tuesday, according to the Mexican weather service. This is not far below the all-time record hurricane rainfall for Colima state, which is 15.57", set in 1998 during Hurricane Javier.
Another significant rainfall threat is the remains Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border yesterday afternoon. TD-12E is being blamed for the deaths of thirteen people in Guatemala, due to flooding, mudslides, and electrocutions from downed power lines. Tropical Depression Irwin, which is headed eastwards towards the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova affected, is expected to dissipate before reaching the coast. It is unlikely Irwin will bring significant rains to Mexico.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Jova (upper right) and Tropical Storm Irwin (lower left) taken at 1:30 pm EDT October 12, 2011. At the time, Jova had 65 mph winds, and Irwin had 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and received a direct hit from Jova's eye. His final report; "Found a small building north of La Manzanilla directly in path of Hurricane Jova's eye. No power, only iPhone battery and still cell service for now. We will get a direct hit here but no lights to see anything to film. Waves are large and crashing on building. Only going to get worse !! Sorry no photos yet, today was actually nice all day and right at dark wind picked up and knocked out power."
Quiet in the Atlantic
Many of the computer models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could come from the remains of TD 12-E.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
513 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL KING AND QUEEN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL KING WILLIAM COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT
* AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR TUNSTALL...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF
TALLEYSVILLE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KING WILLIAM AROUND 520 PM EDT.
WALKERTON AROUND 525 PM EDT.
STEVENSVILLE AROUND 535 PM EDT.
MILLERS TAVERN AROUND 545 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HENLEY FORK...
CROUCH...BRUINGTON...UPRIGHT AND HOWERTONS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN
A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.
&&
LAT...LON 3780 7678 3759 7701 3761 7709 3763 7713
3765 7711 3767 7711 3788 7700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 206DEG 22KT 3763 7702
$$
BHURLEY
Several papers on that issue and enclosing the link from one of Klotzbach's presentation papers. The specific question you raise is addressed on page 3.2.4. I would argue that the inverse relationship was pretty evident over the past several years, but, that this season has been a bit of an anomaly with lot's of simultaneous development in both the Atlantic and E-Pac at the same time.
Link
Incorrect, in October that is very possible to occur.
Looks Like a Excellent read, thanx
No Prob Bruder..........
Those cold fronts pick up systems in the Caribbean, and they move along the fronts in a sharp NE turn usually at 20 mph. This happened with Wilma in 2005 as well as several other systems in the past.
what cooler SSTs?
you think a cold front is going to lower those SSTs that fast?
Yea, I'm not sure what he's talking about.
Pressure still falling in the western Caribbean. Down to 1004.5 mb
The cold front isn't going to be very powerful or bring a lot of dry air. Besides, didn't stop Wilma and didn't stop Ida from intensifying in the Gulf.
Whatever you say doc.. I'm sure Levi could give you a better explanation.
Did I say a Wilma situation would happen? Did I make a reference to this happening? I was referring to you saying it was impossible. That's not true, it happens often in October.. If things where impossible in the tropics, a lot of strange things wouldn't have happened. No offense, but bashing the blog and calling us daydreamers because we disagree with you isn't going to help your case either.
of Fairfax... and Fairfax County...
At 541 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This
tornado was located near Centreville... moving north at 15 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Fairfax...
Oakton...
Mantua...
Vienna...
Reston...
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
Take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building and avoid windows. If outdoors or in a Mobile home or
vehicle... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
Lat... Lon 3894 7717 3877 7733 3880 7742 3902 7738
time... Mot... loc 2142z 197deg 12kt 3882 7737
Kramar
Refer to the post directly above your post.
Also, if anything, storms are more likely to head out of the tropics/move north this time of year since troughs are stronger and digging down deeper during the latter portion of the season than they are during the summer months.
That's just not true.
Florida's threat of getting hit by a tropical cyclone is high this month, especially given the pattern.
Let's get some stuff straight ;)
THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE POTENTIALLY DRIFTING BACK NORTH. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS AND WHETHER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z NAM ACTUALLY DEPICTS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SW OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND
THEN FORMING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF CUBA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS ONCE AGAIN SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE
REGION AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DISPARITIES AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR
INCONSISTENCIES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WE AWAIT BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS STILL
EXISTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE THAT A STRONG TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CLEAR FLORIDA BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS
WAKE.
I'm still here..?
Whatever you say, I'm also just giving the facts.
and if you haven't noticed, this blog has been quiet for several days.
lol, its definitely not fact.
You sound like cloudburst2011, circumventing again?
Man...just won't give up.
You're plain wrong..
Where did this come from?
Don't think he's cloudburst.. though the bold statements and the short membership doesn't help his case. I don't think we should shut away a new member because we don't agree with him.
The Atlantic. XD
I'm confident he isn't a new member, but just somebody that is mad because they were banned.
Your acting like its going to approach the lower 30s by next week (as much as I would like that.) One cold front isn't going to dust off the Gulf. Heck, Ida became a hurricane in the Gulf, in November, in a El Nino year.
Well that cleared it up. LOL.
Interesting weekend setting up across South Florida. We are looking at a couple of features that may help draw up allot of tropical moisture leading to rain, specially on Sunday. Lets take a look.
Weak cold front heading South.
Area of disturbed weather sitting over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Lets start with the front. Satellite imagery shows clear skies from the plains out to the west coast. This is due to a push of cooler Canadian Air.
Ahead of the front, there is heat and humidity causing rain over the Great Lakes.
The leading edge of the front is expect to arrive here sometime Friday/Saturday. This will lead to a chance for showers on Saturday.
The front will then stall and slowly creep back up north on Sunday. Once this happens it will draw up tropical moisture which will lead to a better chance of rain for Sunday.
The second feature can be found on the lower right hand corner of the satellite picture. This is what's left of a Depression from the Eastern Pacific (old TD 12E). The remnants of this stretched out area of low pressure is presently causing plenty of rain over the region. NHC is giving it a 10% chance for growth.
Some models hint at the front tapping into this moisture on Sunday and if it does, it could mean a wetter Sunday. The chances of rain could stick around through the early part of the workweek as well.
A few models even hint at this disturbance turning into an area of low pressure and maybe even a tropical system in the days ahead. Climatology favors this area for tropical formation this time of year.
Usually during the month of October, if anything were to develop, it would do so in the NW Caribbean or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The typical path of anything forming here is toward Cuba and/or Florida.
We'll be watching this area of clouds and rain at WSVN over the next few days, just in case it decides to get its act together.
Errr....You are acting like it is going to get freezing in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida next week, and the GOMEX is all of a sudden going to freeze up. That isn't heppening...there have been storms develop in November in El Nino years that still affected Florida. Secondly, we are not arguing...We are trying to tell you that what he are saying is just wrong. Do I have to start getting storm examples out?
Really? This seems to disagree with you..
I guess you also haven't read my post from WSVN TV in Miami, which hints at a possibility of something moving up towards SFL from Sunday-Tuesday BEFORE the cold front.
Yeah...We'll have a new invest soon...I'd give it a 20% chance of developing at the 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook, judging by its improved satellite appearance since earlier, and the continuing drop in pressure in the Western Caribbean. Current steering is weak, but I think we may see a gradual movement towards the east before it moves more northerly towards Florida.
MARK
18.89N/85.88W
Other than its exposed low-level center, it looks pretty decent.
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