Heavy rains hit Florida coast; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8. lokakuuta 2011 klo 13:01 (GMT)

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A large low pressure system with heavy rain is developing this morning over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The counter-clockwise flow around this low is bringing strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts are already in excess of four inches along a stretch of Florida coast from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts of 45 - 55 mph. These these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday, and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. NHC is currently giving this storm a 20% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Monday morning. This is a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Saturday morning.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene, where a flash flood watch is posted today. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Irwin and Tropical Storm Jova yesterday afternoon over the East Pacific.

Jova and Irwin: trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Tropical Storm Jova continues to slowly intensify. Jova will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have come into better agreement on the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Manzanillo at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 2 strength, which is probably reasonable, given the uncertainties regarding the possible interference from Hurricane Irwin to its west, and the fact that several other of our intensity models show very little strengthening. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, farther to the west. Irwin will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast. However, the track forecast for Irwin has a higher degree of uncertainty than usual, and Baja is also at risk from this storm.

Jeff Masters

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866. Hurricane1956
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 18:37 (GMT)
Quoting Hurricane1956:
This Blog is dead!!,we so much going in the Caribbean and the GOM,no action at all,I love to see the opinion and graphic of other weather aficionados!!,but in the last few days no sign of the regulars?,I wonder why??.
Any opinions of how this mess will end up,some models shows that the low west of South Florida will be the dominant low and will move over South Florida probably taking a lot of the HUGE! moisture to the East of Florida with it,I believe we are no done with the heavy rain and wind here in South Florida,any comments please,thanks!!!.
ACTUALLY I MEAN THE LOW EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
865. Hurricane1956
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 18:34 (GMT)
This Blog is dead!!,we so much going in the Caribbean and the GOM,no action at all,I love to see the opinion and graphic of other weather aficionados!!,but in the last few days no sign of the regulars?,I wonder why??.
Any opinions of how this mess will end up,some models shows that the low west of South Florida will be the dominant low and will move over South Florida probably taking a lot of the HUGE! moisture to the East of Florida with it,I believe we are no done with the heavy rain and wind here in South Florida,any comments please,thanks!!!.
Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
864. BoyntonBeachFL
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:58 (GMT)
I've had 1.66" here in Palm Beach County since the storm began.
Member Since: 18.02.2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 137
863. RickWPB
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:45 (GMT)
Sure wish Palm Beach County would get out of the dry slot before all the rain is gone. I see counties N of here got rain, but here in P.B. County nothing, nada, zip. Today I drove 25 miles from Lake Worth to P.B. Gardens and no standing water anywhere... not even wet streets! Don't know how these 'estimated rain fall amounts' work on radar as they sure aren't accurate.

Glad other areas got some precip though.
Member Since: 26.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 340
862. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:44 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
861. islander101010
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:41 (GMT)
atlantic the one taking charge
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
860. wunderweatherman123
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:41 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Rick in 2009 was a Cat 5 but by the time it got to the coast it was weakening TS.
yeah but this one is supposed to stay in tact meaning a cat 2 or 3 at landfall is likely...
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
859. Sfloridacat5
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:41 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
858. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:40 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
857. Sfloridacat5
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:37 (GMT)
GOM water vapor loop shows the dominant low off the S.W. coast of Fl. Dry air is completely wrapping around the low cutting it off from it main moisture source.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.
html

Looks a little similar to some of the Sub tropical low formation loops you guys posted a couple days ago.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
856. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:37 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52378
855. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:36 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer

That's because they typically weaken because of wind shear...This isn't the case this time. In fact, Jova should be rapidly intensifying all the way up to landfall, which is why a Category 4 at landfall is definitely not out of the woods.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
854. islander101010
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:35 (GMT)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It's really interesting to watch the two Lows fighting for survival. The East Coast Low is doing well and moving steadily to the North (hopefully the majority of the weather will stay offshore). East Central Fl. doesn't need any more rain.

The Low off the S.W. coast seems stuck (left behind)for the moment.
West Coast Low as seen from the Key West Radar.
just said on twc seems a low is developing heading to central fl.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
853. WeatherNerdPR
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:34 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer

Rick in 2009 was a Cat 5 but by the time it got to the coast it was weakening TS.
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
852. wunderweatherman123
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:32 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its organizing quite nicely compared to what it was yesterday, and it is under favorable conditions. For this reason, my final answer, all the way up to landfall, will be 125/135 mph.
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
851. presslord
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:29 (GMT)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...no beer here (too expensive)
I'll just go straight to
essence of distilled sugar cane!

CRS


yea...beer takes too long...
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
850. Sfloridacat5
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:25 (GMT)
There's some pretty strong weather associated with the low off the S.W. Florida coastline. It will be interesting to see which direction its decides to move.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
849. JrWeathermanFL
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:24 (GMT)
Ex-Phillipe: Wow. Neat.
Low in Gulf: Rina or Sean
Low on east: Rina or Sean
Spin in Caribbean it looks like it...
Member Since: 19.07.2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1640
848. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:22 (GMT)
Low-pressure area number 1:



Low-pressure area number 2:



The one in the Gulf of Mexico right now appears dominant, and it may stay that way. There is a possibility of two systems, with the one in the GOMEX being more tropical than the one the east coast of Florida.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
847. Sfloridacat5
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:22 (GMT)
It's really interesting to watch the two Lows fighting for survival. The East Coast Low is doing well and moving steadily to the North (hopefully the majority of the weather will stay offshore). East Central Fl. doesn't need any more rain.

The Low off the S.W. coast seems stuck (left behind)for the moment.
West Coast Low as seen from the Key West Radar.
Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4805
846. GeoffreyWPB
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:22 (GMT)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 09 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCOPD)
VALID 10/1100Z to 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
1. HURRICANE JOVA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210E JOVA
C. 10/1230Z
D. 16.4N 106.2W
E. 10/1700Z TO 10/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE JOVA AT
11/1800Z NEAR 18.5N 104.9W
JWP
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
845. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:18 (GMT)
I know some of you guys like to look at what Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was in previous years, so I am working on Wikipedia to bring some of them back. Here is my sandbox so far, which has gotten basically no where, and it will take a while..but..

Link
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
844. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:15 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
at landfall what wind speed do you think jova will be??

Its organizing quite nicely compared to what it was yesterday, and it is under favorable conditions. For this reason, my final answer, all the way up to landfall, will be 125/135 mph.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
843. WeatherNerdPR
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:14 (GMT)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD


HAZARDOUS FUTURE LIKELY POSSIBLE

Doom.
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
842. wunderweatherman123
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:13 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jova is becoming a nice-looking hurricane, with nice spiral bands and outflow. The eye is clearing out, and deep convection is firing in the eyewall. We should see a 100-105 mph Category 2 hurricane at 5PM. We'll probably see Hurricane Watches issued as well.

at landfall what wind speed do you think jova will be??
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
841. CaicosRetiredSailor
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD


HAZARDOUS FUTURE LIKELY POSSIBLE
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
840. stormpetrol
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:12 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
839. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:11 (GMT)
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THAT
PART OF MEXICO SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY
INFORMATION FOR LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS
AS JOVA NEARS THE COAST.


How do you have a likely possible future Hazardous statement? You can have a possible future Hazardous statement or a likely future Hazardous statement, but not a likely..possible future hazardous statement.

Hmmmmm...
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
838. CaicosRetiredSailor
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:09 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !


...no beer here (too expensive)
I'll just go straight to
essence of distilled sugar cane!

CRS
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
837. weatherbro
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:08 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I agree with the more reliable Euro model that develops something in the southwest Caribbean this weekend/early next week. But keeps it shunted well south of us(Florida) until at least mid-late next week. Due to two fronts expected to clear the state this Thursday-Saturday. With the nice weather lingering up to Wednesday because of a cut-off low that will be left behind over the central Appalachians.

By the tale end of next week(20th-22nd) after a brief ridge over the East, a powerful tough should set up shop-bringing below average temps the following weekend into the last week of October up and past Halloween weekend!

This should do the trick in boosting this thing Northeastwards towards the Bahama's ahead of an approaching cold front.

However,there might be a gap in-between the departing cut-off low and that long-wave trough through the 18-20th time frame. If so, South Florida might be in for a brief land-falling storm before you see the coolest temps of the season thereafter!
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
836. WeatherNerdPR
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:06 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Errr....huh?


Both.

I happened to stumble upon that wonderful set of words at the 1605 UTC EPac tropical weather discussion.
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
835. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Jova is becoming a nice-looking hurricane, with nice spiral bands and outflow. The eye is clearing out, and deep convection is firing in the eyewall. We should see a 100-105 mph Category 2 hurricane at 5PM. We'll probably see Hurricane Watches issued as well.

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
834. Skyepony (Mod)
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:02 (GMT)
There goes the air pressure east of Kennedy Space Center..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
833. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:02 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey.
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD

Errr....huh?

Quoting Ameister12:
Battle of the Lows: Which one will win?

Both.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
832. Ameister12
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 17:02 (GMT)
Jova is clearing out its eye.
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
831. robert88
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
What a mess out there. The LP off the E coast of FL has the best chance imo...but that even looks doubtful at this point. Looks like a big monsoon trough that extends from FL to the S Caribbean. That mess is going to have to clear out first and then we might be a window of tropical development....especially with the MJO coming back. I think somewhere in the next 7-10 days we could have a TD or TS. Wind shear needs to calm down as well.
Member Since: 22.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
830. Ameister12
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Battle of the Lows: Which one will win?
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
829. Skyepony (Mod)
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36167
828. indianrivguy
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
Good to see you brother Grothar.

Wow, I've been perusing radars and can see both systems spinning. The wind here in Jensen has been moving steadily further north since 4am,so I knew CoC of "something" was moving this way. Started out SE, now its ENE. Quite fresh too. Interesting couple of days.
Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
827. Ameister12
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:55 (GMT)
Member Since: 9.08.2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4504
826. WeatherNerdPR
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ex-Philippe.

Good afternoon all.

Hey.
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
825. AstroHurricane001
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
824. TropicalAnalystwx13
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is this ex-Philippe? Or just another extratropical low?

Ex-Philippe.

Good afternoon all.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
823. WeatherNerdPR
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:49 (GMT)
Is this ex-Philippe? Or just another extratropical low?
Member Since: 7.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
822. trHUrrIXC5MMX
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !

what's what I want to know..
Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
821. BenBIogger
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:45 (GMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, here's what I think is going to happen -

There are currently two lows it appears off each side of Florida. Both are competing against eachother to become the main dominant surface circulation. The models have been showing this happening for days, but it was that either the sub-tropical storm developed off the East coast of Florida and moved into Georgia while becoming tropical or staying sub-tropical in the Gulf of Mexico while meandering around. I believe the surface low beginning to get going in the Gulf will become the dominate one, but will have a competing circulation meandering off Cape Canaveral moving away. Now, it appears according to the ECMWF that this surface low off the East Coast of Florida will begin to move N off the coast of the USA while becoming Tropical Storm ''Sean'', and it appears that starting on Monday the surface area in the Gulf of Mexico would develop first, given it was the dominate circulation into Sub-Tropical Storm ''Rina''.

This is one of the many possibilities I see happening, and I could be dead wrong and neither might develop. But as I mentioned earlier, this did happen earlier this July in a somewhat similar manner, though there are key differences, with TS Bret and TS Cindy.


Buoy near the coast of Key West.
Member Since: 19.03.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
820. pottery
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:44 (GMT)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Such an amazing post...

Yes, he does have a way with words, doesn't he?
Swarms of hidden meaning there.
Brilliant.
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
819. BahaHurican
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:44 (GMT)


Looks like a big mess from Venezuela to Jacksonville...
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
818. SunnyDaysFla
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:44 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !

No need to justify a beer on Sunday afternoon LOL
Member Since: 19.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 487
817. lhwhelk
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hear hear! And he does it so eloquently....

He belongs to the minimalist school of blogging.
Member Since: 26.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
816. InTheCone
9. lokakuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting shawn26:
Can someone post the long range GFS or post the link for it?



Link
Member Since: 1.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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