Weakening Ophelia headed towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland, Canada, as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Yesterday, the center of Ophelia passed about 130 miles to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda airport picked up 0.24" of rain from Ophelia's outer rain bands, and had a peak wind gust of 24 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is asymmetric and has lost its eye, thanks to strong upper-level southwesterly winds creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The shear has destroyed a portion of Ophelia's eyewall, according to recent microwave satellite imagery. With the shear expected to increase today and Ophelia about to pass over waters too cold to support a hurricane, the hurricane's eyewall should collapse tonight, resulting in rapid weakening just before the storm arrives in Newfoundland Monday morning. Ophelia will bring a 6-hour period of high winds to Southeast Newfoundland beginning around 4 am local time Monday morning. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 87% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, a 15% chance of winds in excess of 57 mph, and no chance of hurricane force winds. The main threat to Southeast Newfoundland from Ophelia will probably be the minor to moderate flooding the storm's 2 - 4 inches of rain will cause.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ophelia as it skirted Bermuda last night, at 7:13 pm AST on October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation completely exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently in the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae over the Philippine Islands, taken at 03 UTC Saturday, October 1, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Surprisingly, the death toll from Nalgae's floods is relatively low so far, with three deaths reported. Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How long did you have the pain for?
On Africa it looks good, but look in the E ATL, shear is waiting for it.
178 here.
Shear is moderate in the area. 20knots, not destructive, but inhibiting. These are the waves to watch once they reach the Caribbean.
Do you have statistics on that? (Longest a tropical storm has remained a tropical storm, not weakening to TD or intensifying to hurricane). Kind of a pointless statistic, but interesting nonetheless.
Philippe maintaining itself wonderfully.
This one would probably be a hurricane if conditions were a little more favorable.
And there goes Ophelia.
Also, a broad spin embedded in the Monsoonal trof.
No I don't. I know that Fay in 2008 made it to 195 hours, 8 days of 6 hour advisories and 1 intermediate. And another storm tied it this year. If Phillipe can hang on for 5 more days like the NHC forecast says I think that will be a record. Discussion has Phillipe chugging along 120 hours out.
Heads toward MEX
Nothing to be sorry about.... Thanks for that version...(That's the original).... It came back to my mind today after many years...
I was also remembering a group called The flock - Jerry Goodman played violin...
Found a long lasting tropical storm Nov 25-Dec 2 1878, 186 hours.
Correct
Correct.
Storm 5 in 1898 was a tropical storm for 9 days/216 hours
Do you know the history of Hurricane/Typhoon John, I came off Africa but the ATL was to hostile and it developed in the EPAC. Came off Africa on July 25 1994. It turn extratropical on September 10. From birth to death 48 days. WOW!!!!!
1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane and the eleventh deadliest tropical cyclone in the basin. It was an intense and long-lived Atlantic Cape Verde-type hurricane which crossed Puerto Rico over the two day period August 8 to August 9, 1899. Many deaths occurred as a result, due to flooding. The cyclone kept tropical storm strength or higher for 28 days, which makes it the longest duration Atlantic hurricane on record and the second-longest anywhere in the world (behind Hurricane John in 1994). The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
00Z August 27 to 06Z September 12. 390 hours!
Yeah.
The LLC is under the convection, again.
Just doesn't give up.
LOL
there storm tracks of Ginger and the 1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane LOL all they have too to is copy and they can see what track they are for
thats not a vary good gussing game now if you want too make in too a gussing game then you most re move the track names or its called cheating
How did they know the strength for 28 days back then. No buoys, radars, planes and etc. I doubt a boat followed it around. Just curious how in the world they could monitor strength when those things were over the Atlantic? Did they even realize a storm was out there until it got close to land? I always envisioned people being caught off guard by the storms and not even knowing about them until skies started getting bad or birds started acting crazy.
yup it is John too look at the name of the track this go too copy and it will come up with the name
No Taz, if we don't do the cheating part it is a good game.
Making honest guesses isn't that hard to achieve.
Looks like studies made from historic data, taking in consideration Barometric pressure... in diferent locations
References in Wikipedia point to:
"Central pressure of 995 mb (18Z on the 3rd) suggests winds of
56 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 55 kt utilized in best track. Winds are adjusted accordingly on the 3rd to the 5th. A central pressure of 930 mb (on the 7th) suggests winds of 128 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 130 kt utilized in best track. Winds are adjusted accordingly on the 6th to the 8th. A central pressure of 940 mb (around 12Z on the 8th) suggests winds of 119 kt from the southern wind-pressure relationship - 120 kt used in best track. This agrees with the assessment of Boose et al. (2003) in their wind-caused damage estimates of extensive Fujita-scale F3 damage from this hurricane".
There were barometers in many places ...
Barometer History
Although Evangelista Torricelli is universally credited with inventing the barometer in 1643,[1][2][3] historical documentation also suggests Gasparo Berti, an Italian mathematician and astronomer, unintentionally built a water barometer sometime between 1640 and 1643.[1][4] French scientist and philosopher Rene Descartes described the design of an experiment to determine atmospheric pressure as early as 1631, but there is no evidence that he built a working barometer at that time.[1].................................
(From Wikipedia)
00Z August 27 to 06Z September 12. 390 hours!
Longest duration continuously at tropical storm strength. However Philippe holds the record for the satellite era.
Do you cheat at every game you play???? LOL
Excerpt:
FLORIDA HAS A PARTICULARLY INTERESTING PROBLEM THIS PERIOD.
ENERGY FROM THE WESTERLIES DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AND JUST
DRIFTS WESTWARD AS RIDGING OVER ITS TOP REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. THIS
SOLUTION WAS SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /AS WELL AS
THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN/ AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND CAUSES A
BROAD MONSOON-LIKE DEPRESSION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN TEPID AND THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW
COULD LEAD TO A HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS /WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/ WITH POSSIBLE GALES AND HEAVY RAIN
NEAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. POSSIBLE
OCTOBER ANALOGS TO THIS FEATURE /WHICH SHOWED A SIMILAR PATTERN
ACROSS THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS/ ARE THE OCTOBER 14 1956
QUASI-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE OCTOBER 4 1976 CYCLONE /SUBTROPICAL
STORM FOUR/. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE
EAST...MORE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AND IMPACTS OF THE MAY 19-20 2009
GULF GALE WHICH CAUSED A LARGE AREA OF OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STAY TUNED.
but to maintain the historicity of the ATCF mappings...
40.3n60.6w, 42.5n59.7w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_3Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
39.9n60.7w, 42.5n59.7w, 45.5n56.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 2Oct_6amGMT and ending 3Oct_6amGMT
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 3Oct_6amGMT,
the island-to-island blob at 47.506n57.387w-MQC is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 3Oct_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline-to-island blob at 47.628n57.408w-MQC is the same for the 2Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 43.5mph(70k/h) on a heading of 36.5degrees(NE)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over RedIsland,Newfoundland ~half an hour ago
Copy&paste 47.628n57.408w-mqc, 47.506n57.387w-mqc, 34.8n62.1w-37.4n61.5w, 37.4n61.5w-39.9n60.7w, 39.9n60.7w-42.5n59.7w, 42.5n59.7w-45.5n56.5w, 42.5n59.7w-47.39n54.25w, nwp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 3Oct_12amGMT
* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Very interesting... HPC's forecast resembles quite a bit the ECMWF run.
but i have a question
how high is the shear in 92 L ?
240 hours
AL, 92, 2011100306, , BEST, 0, 394N, 265W, 30, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 160, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
75 km/h = 45 mph
yes 45 mph
is this almost a tropical depression?
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