Weakening Ophelia headed towards Newfoundland
Hurricane Ophelia is steaming north-northeastwards towards Newfoundland, Canada, as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Yesterday, the center of Ophelia passed about 130 miles to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda airport picked up 0.24" of rain from Ophelia's outer rain bands, and had a peak wind gust of 24 mph. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia is asymmetric and has lost its eye, thanks to strong upper-level southwesterly winds creating 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. The shear has destroyed a portion of Ophelia's eyewall, according to recent microwave satellite imagery. With the shear expected to increase today and Ophelia about to pass over waters too cold to support a hurricane, the hurricane's eyewall should collapse tonight, resulting in rapid weakening just before the storm arrives in Newfoundland Monday morning. Ophelia will bring a 6-hour period of high winds to Southeast Newfoundland beginning around 4 am local time Monday morning. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 87% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, a 15% chance of winds in excess of 57 mph, and no chance of hurricane force winds. The main threat to Southeast Newfoundland from Ophelia will probably be the minor to moderate flooding the storm's 2 - 4 inches of rain will cause.
Figure 1. Radar image of Ophelia as it skirted Bermuda last night, at 7:13 pm AST on October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: Bermuda Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and high wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation completely exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is a very high 30 - 40 knots, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will remain high through Tuesday, but may relax to the moderate range as Philippe turns towards the north on Wednesday. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days (though the NOGAPS model shows a strong tropical disturbance forming in the Western Caribbean in about 7 days, something it has erroneously been predicting frequently in the past few weeks.) The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nalgae over the Philippine Islands, taken at 03 UTC Saturday, October 1, 2011. At the time, Nalgae was a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Nalgae headed for Vietnam
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nalgae will be skirting China's Hainan Island on Tuesday, and will make final landfall over Vietnam on Wednesday. Nalgae is not expected to regain typhoon strength. Nalgae roared ashore over the Philippines' main island of Luzon as a super typhoon with 150 mph winds at 9 am local time on Saturday morning. The typhoon dumped heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches across a large swath of Northern Luzon, on soils already saturated from the rains of Typhoon Nesat just five days previously. Surprisingly, the death toll from Nalgae's floods is relatively low so far, with three deaths reported. Nesat killed at least 52 people in the Philippines and three in China.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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U-Tube 'thunder coming all stars' and turn your speakers up, then!
Make some noise....
Nice and cool in West Central Florida this morning. Was 55F at my house, NW of Tampa and that's considerably below normal for this early in the fall season, though not by any means unprecedented.
Watch for the SSTs in the near shore waters to plunge over the next few days. Further out, the drop will be slower but still notable. This takes away the potential for support of major hurricanes, so anything that might come up this far will struggle from now on. Also, the wind shear will only increase as time passes.
We are not out of the woods yet as far as tropical cyclones are concerned, for this season, but the door has definitely begun to close.
not for now
SST (near shore) were quite cool across the GOM when Hurricane Wilma moved into the GOM. A storm such as Wilma could easily be supported.
Even way down in far S.W. Florida (Ft. Myers to Naples) water temps were in the low 70s. I would assume water temps were in the 60s Further up the coast.
But offshore waters in the Southern GOM near the channel were still in the 80s in late Oct.
The lower water temps will affect tropical development in the GOM. But tropical storms/hurricanes formed in the Caribbean will have plenty of warm water to support a Caribbean formed storm.
The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).
By JIM GOMEZ - Associated Press | AP – 3 hrs ago
MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Rescuers scrambled Sunday to deliver food and water to hundreds of villagers stuck on rooftops for days because of flooding in the northern Philippines, where back-to-back typhoons have left at least 59 people dead.
Link
Is that right? Someone could check that for me.
its not rare the W cost of FL not sure about overe parts but the W coast of FL is at high Risk at land falling hurricane some time that can be strong in oct
Some famous October hurricanes that have hit Florida are:
Opal in 1995: hit western Florida panhandle near Pensacola as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds
Isbell in 1964: hit the southwest coast just south of Marco Island with 115 mph winds
King in 1950: hit the southeast coast near Miami with 105 mph winds
Unnamed hurricane in 1944: hit southwest coast near Port Charlotte with 120 mph winds
Unnamed hurricane in 1910: hit southwest coast near Naples with 115 mph winds
Unnamed hurricane in 1906: hit the upper Keys and southeast coast with 125 mph winds
The other three major hurricanes that have hit the U.S. in the last century in October were Wilma in 2005, Hilda in 1994, and Hazel in 1954.
you no you can look that up on your own then haveing some one do it for you
Did it.
But some regulars have some real good saved information at their finger tips.
Welcome to WU
It's nice with some overcast also today here in Provo, TCI.
Because of the shift in hurricane tracks, south Florida is at greater risk from hurricanes in October than they are earlier in the hurricane season. Of eight major hurricanes (Category Three or higher) that hit the U.S. in October between 1900 and 2000, Florida was hit by six, and south Florida by five.
From 1900 to 2000, the probability of a hurricane hitting south Florida in any given year in September is four to six percent. The probability of an October hurricane strike is six to eight percent (highest in the Florida Keys).
I agree that Oct is a dangerous month for Fl. However, the current pattern set up does not favor a FL hit. This strong very early season cold front has significant implications on patterns over the next couple of weeks. I'm not saying that FL is completely out of the woods but if something were to form in the Caribbean, a NE to ENE track is most likely.
not really the stronger the cold front and more S it gets it can pick up what evere is down there and send it N right in too FL wish i have seen many of times
Low humidity, warm, sunny, etc. A perfect beach day for the sun lovers.
Not sure I would say it's actually part of the front, more like it's being influenced by the front. This is the 12z Surface Analysis. The area from a climate perspective is favorable for development, but conditions in the short term are not favorable with ~20-30 Kts of wind shear. I think by early next week we will have something the watch in the Western Caribbean.
Full size image
Link
Full size image
Link
Only 18 hurricanes have made a Florida landfall in October as of 2007, with only 3 of them being majors (all cat 3's).
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Sunday 2 October 2011
Condition: Light Rain
Pressure: 30.00 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 10 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2
Temperature: 41.9°F
Dewpoint: 38.8°F
Humidity: 89 %
Wind: N 17 mph
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Ophelia
Should start snowing there soon :)
yes
rebound by mid week back into the 70's by end of the week thanksgiving weekend looks to be above normal temps with good weather
thats be come CV season is overe and done with
Looks like the Caboose is just leaving the Station.
Last train out.
Next train should be loading in about 9 months.....
Agree... won't be surprised of multiple spanning areas from W/NW Carib. to Bahamas region if it's strong enough.
Grandfather Mountain NC had a dusting earlier today.
Webcam:
booneweather.com/Webcams/Linville+Ridge+Belvedere
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