Ophelia strengthening; Typhoon Nalgae a new threat to the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 29. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:51 (GMT)

Share this Blog
22
+

Tropical Storm Ophelia is strengthening as it pulls away from the Lesser Antilles Islands and heads north-northwest. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over its core, which is characteristic of strengthening tropical storms that are nearing hurricane intensity. Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, but by Friday morning, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and remain below 15 knots through Sunday morning. This should allow Ophelia to intensify into a hurricane on Friday. Most of the models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. We can't rule out the possibility that Bermuda will receive hurricane force winds yet, but the odds are low--the 5 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda just a 3% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Sunday night, as a weakening tropical storm.

In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to diminish some today over the storm, which should allow the storm to intensify. However, by Saturday, Philippe will be encountering very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots associated with the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will probably be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia, showing the large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) that has formed.

Typhoon Nesat battering China
Typhoon Nesat hit China's Hainan Island today as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. While Nesat's winds and storm surge will not cause major damage, it is a very wet storm, capable of dropping up to 8 inches of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Haikou on Hainan Island recorded a wind gust of 78 mph and 3.23" of rain as the eyewall passed just to the north. Nesat will hit Vietnam near Hanoi as a tropical storm on Saturday.

Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 35 people dead and 45 missing. The Philippines has a new worry today: Typhoon Nalgae has formed 700 miles to the east of Luzon Island, and is expected to follow a course just to the north of Nesat's. Nalgae is expected to intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon and hit the northern portion of Luzon on Saturday afternoon, local time. With soils on the island already saturated from the heavy rains Nesat brought, the new typhoon promises to bring heavy flooding to Luzon this weekend.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nesat over the South China Sea taken at 1:35 pm local time September 28, 2011. At the time, Nesat was a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

471. AussieStorm
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:03 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
nalgae up to 135mph...... philipenes watch out
They are ready for it but not much can be done in some parts cause they are still dealing with 3-10ft of flooding in so area's. Link



Member Since: 30.09.2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15749
470. SherwoodSpirit
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:53 (GMT)
New blog. :)
Member Since: 18.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 392
469. reedzone
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:49 (GMT)
Bermuda to add from Igor.. 2010 was not a dead season by any means.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
468. HuracanTaino
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:46 (GMT)
Quoting JLPR2:
Ophelia is looking good, may become our third mayor cane.

Philippe is hanging on and we even have a little disturbance in the CATL.

Feels like September.
Perhaps something for us to watch at 10N , 47W; a cat 3 hurricane, a TS name Phillippe, so not bad to say "adios" to "all mighty September" .
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
467. reedzone
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting BullShoalsAR:

Totally agreed. Neither of these two systems are projected to impact America. Looks like yet another boring, uneventful 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Tell that the Carolinas and Haiti that got hit with storms last year.. Just because it doesn't hit you, doesn't mean it was boring. 2010 and this year have been extremely active seasons and has cost lives.
Member Since: 1.07.2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
466. keisa90
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting redwagon:

LOL. Hilary has never done anything the models suggested, the worst forecasted storm I can remember, but she has pumped more moisture into TX this year than anything else has - Thank you, Hilary (with one 'L').



Nice rain here yesterday in SE Texas!
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
465. HuracanTaino
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Ophelia made it. Cat 3, third one this year,perhaps she peaks, and now begin to weaken gradually.
That will give Phillippe a window of oportunity to gain some strength, as he move westward.
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
464. redwagon
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.

LOL. Hilary has never done anything the models suggested, the worst forecasted storm I can remember, but she has pumped more moisture into TX this year than anything else has - Thank you, Hilary (with one 'L').
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
463. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
OPHELIA WITH 115 MPH WINDS...BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 SEASON
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 30
Location: 23.5°N 62.8°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb


FINALLY!
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
462. KUEFC
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Quoting stoormfury:
area south of Philippe near 9N 48W is beginning to look interesting. the last few frames has shown an increase in cyclonic turning, the cloud cover has increased, Cculd this be our new invest? looks like where Flora of 1963 originated.


And it would just end up facing the same conditions in which philippe is facing.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
461. JNCali
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Woke up to the remenants of Hilary overhead.. looks like SoCal could get some moisture this afternoon from it.. only viagra so far :)
Member Since: 9.09.2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
459. redwagon
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!

Thank you for this WV loop. My favorite already.
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
458. JLPR2
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Ophelia is looking good, may become our third mayor cane.

Philippe is hanging on and we even have a little disturbance in the CATL.

Feels like September.
Member Since: 4.09.2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
457. aspectre
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
H.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 29Sept_12pmGMT and ending 30Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 30Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 38.940n74.864w-WWD is the endpoint of the 30Sept_6amGMT straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 41.071n71.836w-MTP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 30Sept_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 10.5mph(16.9k/h) on a heading of 348.4degrees(NNW)
(348.75degrees is midway between NNW and N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~5.5miles(8.9kilometres) west of Bermuda ~2days12hours from now

Copy&paste 41.071n71.836w-mtp, 38.940n74.864w-wwd, 20.3n61.4w-20.9n61.9w, 20.9n61.9w-21.5n62.2w, 21.5n62.2w-22.0n62.5w, 22.0n62.5w-22.9n62.7w, bda, 22.0n62.5w-32.281n64.967w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 30Sept_6amGMT

The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
456. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Looks like the intensification of Ophelia has been overdone a bit. And upgrading her to category 3 would be convenient by the NHC, wouldn't it folks? Because that makes her a major. Yet ANOTHER example of padding numbers by the NHC to save themselves.

Nonetheless, two fish storms, two weak, pathetic systems that are going OTS. Who cares.

Next please.
wait until the 2012 season. or in october. thats the best chance for a US hit during the latter part of the season. if we get el nino next season i doubt we will get any hurricanes to impact the US.
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
453. stillwaiting
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!
,here it comes ,whats it been 6months since weve seen he lower 60's????
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
452. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:10 (GMT)
nalgae up to 135mph...... philipenes watch out
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
451. stillwaiting
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:08 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



These BAM models are really messed up. The dark blue is BAMD while the Light Blue is BAMS. Strange steering Forecast for Philippe as usually it would be just the opposite.
,ihink its because of t he forecast sheer and its effect on he models
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
450. stoormfury
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
area south of Philippe near 9N 48W is beginning to look interesting. the last few frames has shown an increase in cyclonic turning, the cloud cover has increased, Cculd this be our new invest? looks like where Flora of 1963 originated.
Member Since: 22.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
449. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting Gearsts:
No she doesnt lol do you know what pinhole eyes is?
isnt that when the eye is less than 25 miles wide?
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
448. Some1Has2BtheRookie
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Texas managed to pick up some rains, in some areas, yesterday. We received a nice soaking around the Houston area. While I received about 3/4", at my house, some areas probably picked up more and some areas probably got less. I was just reading an article that predicts the Texas drought will continue and probably for several more years to come. The past 12 moths have already proven to be the driest 12 months on record, for Texas. This 12 month period even exceeds the worst 12 month period of Texas's drought of the 1950s, if I read the article correctly.

9 more years of Texas drought possible

Sooo, if anyone has any rain to spare, I have a bucket, sitting at the ready. ;-)
Member Since: 24.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4728
447. Gearsts
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yes she does its very small on infrared satalite. :)
No she doesnt lol do you know what pinhole eyes is?
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
446. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Quoting Gearsts:
No she doesnt lol
yes she does its very small on infrared satalite. :)
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
445. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Quoting kshipre1:
the thing that surprises me is with all the dry air in place over the GOM over the next few weeks, how could any storm really get too strong? especially with a couple of strong cool fronts



Its the tail end of those Cold fronts that will probably spin up a System in the Caribbean. Yes the GOM will cool down some but, it will only be a surface cooling.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
444. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:46 (GMT)
First possible dusting of SNOW in the Smokey's it appears in the Cumberlands.







Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
443. Gearsts
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
shes got a pinhole eye aswell i think she is a cat 3
No she doesnt lol
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
442. bohonkweatherman
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Quoting muddertracker:


This is music to my ears...hope it actually happens!
Me too, lots of lightening and thunder in Texas last 3 days with mostly light and disappointing rainfall totals. Hard to get excited when a front comes thru and drops you into the 90s instead of 100s when it should be in mid 80s. LOL, Happy Friday
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
441. kshipre1
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
the thing that surprises me is with all the dry air in place over the GOM over the next few weeks, how could any storm really get too strong? especially with a couple of strong cool fronts
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
440. KUEFC
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting TampaSpin:



Yes it should! But, this first cold front won't do it. At 5 days its still not for sure yet tho.


Its not 100% but it pretty much is, lets be honest, the models are now starting to hint at the recurve, and even if it did head west, it would be torn to shreads by the westerlies stretching from the GOM to florida, (50-70kts of shear), as i said this is info from PRO mets,
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 93
439. kshipre1
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
all these forecasts of the caribbean becoming active in a couple of weeks is making me nervous
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
438. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
437. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
shes got a pinhole eye aswell i think she is a cat 3
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
436. HuracandelCaribe
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Ophelia looks almost like a Major H
Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
435. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Quoting kshipre1:
does anyone see Phillipe turning out to sea after day 5? just wondering because wundergrounds computer models page show him turning north and northeast out to sea while the NHC models show Phillipe going west or even wsw



Yes it should! But, this first cold front won't do it. At 5 days its still not for sure yet tho.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
434. HuracandelCaribe
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Very nice cyclonic turning starting to happen in the last few frames.

HMMMM.. if it is able to gain some latitudes  and miss South America can become interesting.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

small area of disturbed weather near 9N 47W moving wnw. some cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud field.

Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
433. muddertracker
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.


This is music to my ears...hope it actually happens!
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
432. muddertracker
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
When was the last time the conus was hit by a
"P" storm?
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316
431. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:29 (GMT)




Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
430. bohonkweatherman
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
429. TampaSpin
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)



These BAM models are really messed up. The dark blue is BAMD while the Light Blue is BAMS. Strange steering Forecast for Philippe as usually it would be just the opposite.
Member Since: 2.09.2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
428. kshipre1
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:26 (GMT)
does anyone see Phillipe turning out to sea after day 5? just wondering because wundergrounds computer models page show him turning north and northeast out to sea while the NHC models show Phillipe going west or even wsw
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
427. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:17 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
what do you think? :) its possible
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243
426. jascott1967
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Looks like Ophelia is projected to miss the Bahamas and curve out to sea and Phillip is forecasted to weaken. Good news for all!
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
425. robert88
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:41 (GMT)
At least the ACE is starting to get closer to average.
Member Since: 22.05.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
424. Neapolitan
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:37 (GMT)
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13275
423. Muffelchen
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:31 (GMT)
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

small area of disturbed weather near 9N 47W moving wnw. some cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud field.


yep, deffo some turning there. Almost looks like the type of development that begins from a stalled CF off the E Coast of the US, except here there is a 'tail' all the way to Phillipe to the north.

Interesting to watch to see if anything develops.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
422. TropicalAnalystwx13
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:12 (GMT)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Atlantic: 84.4

Eastern Pacific: 84.3

Atlantic's highest producing storm: Katia - 24.8

Eastern Pacific's highest producing storm: Hilary - 31.2

Atlantic's lowest producing storm: Franklin - 0.405

Eastern Pacific's lowest producing storm: Calvin - 2.43

Off to school, be back this afternoon.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
421. wunderweatherman123
30. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:58 (GMT)
good for ophelia from a remnant low to almost a major. this will boost up our ACE. hilary had an ACE of 31 or 32 0__0 and nalagae is now a 110mph cat 2 and should make it to a 3 before making landfall in the philipenes
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243

Viewing: 471 - 421

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
39 °F
Selkeää