Ophelia dies; Philippe, Hilary no threat; Nesat drenching the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 26. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:07 (GMT)

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High wind shear and dry air finally managed to kill off Tropical Storm Ophelia yesterday. The storm's remnants continue to fester a few hundred miles east of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots should make any regeneration of Ophelia slow. NHC gave Ophelia a 20% chance of regenerating by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble any land areas. Philippe is the 16th named storm this year, tying 2011 with 2008, 2003, and 1936 for 7th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Philippe's formation date of September 24 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 16th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier 16th storm. With only three of this year's sixteen storms reaching hurricane strength so far, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851. Philippe has a modest chance to become the season's fourth hurricane; the 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Philippe a 23% chance of intensifying into a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon. Wind shear is expected to steadily increase today to 15 - 20 knots, limiting Philippe's chances to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 2:25 pm EDT September 25, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday, but most of the models do not bring Hilary ashore over Mexico's Baja Peninsula during the next five days. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear on its journey north, the storm is likely to be no stronger than a tropical depression if it does manage to reach the coast.


Figure 2. Microwave image from NASA's TRMM satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat at 4:56 am EDT Monday September 26, 2007. Rainfall rates of up to 0.8"/hour (yellow colors) were occurring along the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Typhoon Nesat nears landfall in the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat, a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, is just a few hours from landfall near Casiguran on Luzon Island in the Philippines. Nesat was expected to intensify to a major Category 3 storm before landfall, but the typhoon ingested a large pulse of dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm, slowing down intensification. The typhoon still has time to intensify into a Category 2 storm, but Nesat's wind and storm surge will not cause major devastation. Heavy rains from Nesat are a major concern, though. Recent microwave satellite images (Figure 2) show rains up to 0.8" per hour falling along the southeast quadrant of Nesat's center, and heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches will cause significant flooding in the Philippines. Nesat will lose strength during its crossing of the Philippines, but is expected to regain strength as it crosses the South China Sea before making another landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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790. Buhdog
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 19:40 (GMT)
has the blog officially jumped the shark?
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
789. Buhdog
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 19:25 (GMT)
Quoting fireflymom:
The Hummingbirds have been swarming the feeders in our yard this week, that is usually the behavior we see before the first real cold front hits our area just South of Houston, Tx.  We could try blaming the drought as well as we have way more hummers than we have seen in past years.

hummingbird caster....that is a first. ;)

backwards flow in SWFL for the 3rd straight day....Muggy and miserable.
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
788. aspectre
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:54 (GMT)
Since exOphelia's (82.1degrees)eastward center relocation of 159miles(256kilometres) to 18.8n58.6w...

(See the previous mapping for 26Sept_6pmGMT for a more explanatory overall view along with other details)
18.9n59.0w, 19.0n59.4w had been re-evaluated&altered to
19.1n58.9w, 19.4n59.2w, 19.6n59.6w, 19.7n59.9w which were re-evaluated&altered for exOphelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.9w, 18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.5w are now the most recent positions.
Starting with the center relocation on 26Sept_6amGMT and ending 27Sept_12pmGMT

The 5 eastern line-segments represent exOphelia's path.
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
exOphelia's travel-speed was 2.2mph(3.5k/h) on a heading of 270degrees(W)
exOphelia was headed toward passage over TheBaths,ViginGorda,BritishVirginIslands.

Copy&paste bbq, 18.8n58.6w-18.6n58.8w, 18.6n58.8w-18.6n58.9w, 18.6n58.9w-18.5n59.1w, 18.5n59.1w-18.5n59.3w, 18.5n59.3w-18.5n59.5w, vij, 18.5n59.3w-18.427n64.44w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info*.

* BBQ is on the map solely as a fix to a peculiarity in the GCMapper's map-scale program.
Delete bbq and you'll see what I mean.
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
787. HuracandelCaribe
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Is ex Ophelia trying to re-develop near 16.5n 59.0w?

Member Since: 12.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 96
786. fireflymom
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:13 (GMT)
The Hummingbirds have been swarming the feeders in our yard this week, that is usually the behavior we see before the first real cold front hits our area just South of Houston, Tx.  We could try blaming the drought as well as we have way more hummers than we have seen in past years.
Member Since: 5.06.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
785. kshipre1
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:02 (GMT)
I certainly hope the tropics do not become active in the central and w caribbean as is being projected around mid october.

I live in florida and am going overseas. hope my flight will be ok!
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
784. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
No updates from crownweather this AM. I think no one knows what to do with ex ophelia lol
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
783. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 16, 2011092700, 185N, 591W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092706, 185N, 593W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092712, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO


<---------------------------------------------- !!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
782. 19N81W
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:25 (GMT)
this was a season that could have been devastating....if conditions were different and steering cuurents different with the level of activity and the amount of waves that spun into a closed low things could have been very different....I wonder if researchers will let us know what it was that kept it all at bay...
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
781. weatherbro
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Even most of Florida will get a taste of Fall this weekend!!!
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
780. CaicosRetiredSailor
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Just a note about something others have experienced "post-hurricane", there are noticeably fewer birds around. Just this morning I hear and see the first Mockingbird in our area, since the storm. They are normally ubiquitous.
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
778. o22sail
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
lmao did you eat some???

lol. it's like a hurricane in your head.
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 122
777. OracleDeAtlantis
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:06 (GMT)
Is it my imagination, or does Ophelia have a mind of her own? Anyone have any wild ideas about this one?

Member Since: 27.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
776. kwgirl
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:01 (GMT)
Good morning all. It is a bright and sunny day here in the keys. Thank goodness!

I heard this morning that Key West got 4.8 inches of rain yesterday. How can 4.8 inches turn into 3-4 feet of pooling rain?!? I know, concrete and buildings is the answer.

There is a picture on the front page of the Citizen today showing three tourists swimming across Front street. Don't those people realize that there is sewer, gasoline, oil, and all kinds of nasty stuff in that water. Bad enough you have to wade through it, but to put your face down near it is asking for trouble! As the saying goes "Only in Key West" LOL. I hope everyone has a good day today.
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
775. Vincent4989
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:50 (GMT)
Hey guys, im back online, saw moderate chaos near my house.Saw a nearby metal billboard scraped and a roof blown away, but I'm lucky that i'm safe.
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
774. GeoffreyWPB
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:49 (GMT)
AL, 16, 2011092700, 185N, 591W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092706, 185N, 593W, 25, 1010, LO
AL, 16, 2011092712, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
773. stormpetrol
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:46 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
772. stormpetrol
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:45 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
770. GeoffreyWPB
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:35 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
769. Neapolitan
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Quoting BVI:


Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!

The adults on here know that, of course; 'tis only the trolls who have a difficult time grasping such obvious concepts. ;-)

Nesat is definitely giving the Philippines a hard time; parts of Manila Bay are seeing their worst flooding in decades, at least a dozen lives have been lost, and more is on the way.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
768. BVI
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:32 (GMT)
Quoting melaniestx:
not to mention some of us are technically part of the US


Indeed, good point!! where are you? I am in Tortola
Member Since: 9.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
767. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:30 (GMT)
Link

Intense rains
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
766. melaniestx
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:29 (GMT)
Quoting BVI:


Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!
not to mention some of us are technically part of the US
Member Since: 16.01.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
765. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:28 (GMT)
EX ophelia should be interesting to watch today. I think the NHC will have to give up with their current center position... LLC will probably consolidate south.

Erratically moving systems are nearly impossible to forecast as regards track... I perfectly remember hurricane Lenny which was supposed to move NE but was heading SE instead over the N Leewards..
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
764. BVI
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:19 (GMT)
Quoting rkay1:
Who cares, either way it will not impact CONUS.



Us in the islands care if it intensifies and we suddenly have a TS on our doorstep, as hard as this may be for you the USA is not the be all and end all of the world!
Member Since: 9.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
763. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:10 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:10 (GMT)
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:06 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anybody know how long that big pin-wheel has been spinning in the central US?
4 DAYS and we still got 4 more days to go bfore it gets absorb by another system coming down from the north hook up and give us a blast of cool air then it moves along after that
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52383
759. FLWeatherFreak91
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:04 (GMT)
Quoting islander101010:
e cen fl. how humid is it islander over there?. hum islander101010 says 'its so humid even though it has not rained in a few days not a drop mushrooms are still popping up all over'.
lmao did you eat some???
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
756. pottery
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:00 (GMT)
Good Morning.
Another hot and dry one here. Hazy.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

As Mark Twain once said, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." (I hope it was Mark Twain - if it was Simon and Garfunkle again I'm doomed)


Maybe it was Winston Churchill, just to make matters more confusing....
LOL
Member Since: 24.10.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23105
753. stormwatcherCI
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:55 (GMT)
What is the blob in the BOC ?
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
750. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:51 (GMT)
most of that mess is east of the Leewards
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
749. CaribBoy
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:50 (GMT)
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

I'm tired with NHC saying the center is ENE of the Islands...
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
748. TropicalAnalystwx13
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:49 (GMT)
Ex-Ophelia is up to 80% chance, should see it classified at 5PM this afternoon.

Recon flies at 2PM.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
747. interstatelover7165
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:49 (GMT)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271148
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: 18.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
746. stormwatcherCI
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:46 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Ex-Ophelia is looking very well this morning, and is likely very close to being a tropical cyclone again, if not now. Also...look at its position. If I were the National Hurricane Center, I would issue Tropical Storm Warnings for the northern Lesser Antilles.

80%/90% at 8AM IMO...

Dominica Guadaloupe and Antigua all reporting west winds. Martinique reporting ssw winds.
Member Since: 9.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
745. TropicTraveler
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:44 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
The headline of this blog says "Ophelia dies" and it was posted at 8:07 this morning.
She does not look Dead to me right now.
Amazing!

As Mark Twain once said, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." (I hope it was Mark Twain - if it was Simon and Garfunkle again I'm doomed)
Member Since: 24.07.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 921
744. TropicalAnalystwx13
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
743. islander101010
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:36 (GMT)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Anybody know how long that big pin-wheel has been spinning in the central US?
another sign of global warming?
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
742. Neapolitan
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:36 (GMT)
Philippe may not be with is much longer, despite what the official forecast says; he's highly-sheared, his CoC is exposed for all the world--or at least all the satellites--to see, and all decent convection has been blasted off to the east. But even if he's on his death bed, he's at least managed to break into the top eight so far as ACE is concerned with 2.22; that puts him just ahead of Arlene and right behind Cindy:

Philippe
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
741. TropicalAnalystwx13
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:35 (GMT)
Good morning all.

Ex-Ophelia is looking very well this morning, and is likely very close to being a tropical cyclone again, if not now. Also...look at its position. If I were the National Hurricane Center, I would issue Tropical Storm Warnings for the northern Lesser Antilles.

80%/90% at 8AM IMO...

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30291
740. wunderweatherman123
27. syyskuuta 2011 klo 11:21 (GMT)
After crossing the philipenes as a 3, nesat has weakened to a 2 and could maintain or restrengthen itself before making landfall in china. also behind nesat is a td which is expected to become a cat 2 typhoon as it moves westward north of the philipenes south of tawian
Member Since: 23.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1243

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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