Ophelia weakening; Hilary an impressive Cat 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:09 (GMT)

Share this Blog
17
+

Tropical Storm Ophelia is weaker today, thanks to dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has almost no heavy thunderstorms near its low level circulation center, which is entirely exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are in a band several hundred miles to the east and south, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show the center of Ophelia is entirely within a large area of very dry air. We don't have any current buoy, ship, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia; the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia this afternoon near 2 pm EDT.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. I believe that the combination of shear and dry air will probably dissipate Ophelia on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Ophelia will bring a few heavy rain squalls to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday and Sunday. At longer ranges, even if Ophelia dissipates this weekend, it could encounter a lower-shear environment south of Bermuda early next week and regenerate. Ophelia (or its remnants) may may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to know.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at Category 4 strength, with 145 mph winds. Quite a contrast from Ophelia!

Hurricane Hilary hits Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has intensified into an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, and has brought 2 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the Mexican coast west of Acapulco. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm's rains should not cause major flooding problems for Mexico. However, a trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. early next week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, and both the GFS and ECMWF models predict Hillary could hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Thursday. If this scenario does occur, Hilary would likely be much weaker, due to the colder waters it would have to traverse to get to Baja. It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds. The GOES-West satellite is in super rapid scan mode today for Hilary, and you can view satellite loops with images taken every minute from the NOAA/CIRA website.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is predicted by the GFS model to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is currently moving west, but steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.

Japan is cleaning up from Typhoon Roke, which made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm. AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Roke were $150 - $600 million, mostly from wind damage. The typhoon killed 12 and left 5 people missing in Japan.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 926 - 876

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

926. HurricaneDean07
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 17:20 (GMT)
Season Overview:
2011...

Numbers:
16 Named Storms(Philippe soon)(Could see Rina from 91L)
3 Hurricanes(Could go up with Ophelia, and Philippe)
2 Major Hurricanes(Could go up with Philippe,lol, Maybe)

ACE:
76.9

Deaths:
118

Damage(USD Billions):
>10,633.2

US Landfalls:
3 Landfalling Storms(Lee, Irene, Don)

Forecast for rest of the season.
91L could develop into Rina,

If no development of 91L,
OCTOBER:
Rina
Sean
Tammy

November:
Whitney
Alpha?
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
925. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 17:10 (GMT)
these are the kind of rains we had just before Floyd in 99 and we all up here know what the result of that was. Not saying we will get a Floyd later tho
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
924. bohonkweatherman
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 17:08 (GMT)
Quoting will40:


i understand your concern and hope at least the heat will come down soon
126 straight days of at least 90, the old record was 104 days, next 7 to 10 days it should be over 90. Last Sept. we had 11 days in 80s and 2 in the 70s with lots of rain then 3rd week of Sept it stopped raining period then started getting warmer than normal to much above normal in temps. The last year 90 percent of my rain has fallen in 3 or 4 heavy showers that did not last long then in between these 3 or 4 heavy showers nothing. Unfortunately Texas does not have rainy periods, it is either too much rain or too little rain.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
923. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 17:04 (GMT)
Quoting extreme236:


12z SHIPS didn't show much promise for 91L. Shows shear staying favorable for just the next 24 hours or so.



still gonna be a wet one tho
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
922. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 17:02 (GMT)
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So do I, only a trace here since June 22, temps are still around 100 also, besides mornings being cooler I have seen little change here since May. Too Hot and Too Dry, now No humidity at all.


i understand your concern and hope at least the heat will come down soon
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
921. Neapolitan
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:57 (GMT)
CLICK FOR DR. MASTERS' NEW BLOG ENTRY
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13277
920. extreme236
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Could see 40% on 91L at 2Pm, but id give it an overall 60% of actually making it to Rina, though you can NEVER rule it out. There is some weak turning within the low, and and weak circulation could be atempting to form. It will be interesting to see what comes of it.


12z SHIPS didn't show much promise for 91L. Shows shear staying favorable for just the next 24 hours or so.
Member Since: 2.08.2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
919. TropicalAnalystwx13
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:53 (GMT)
I've not seen the sun in about a week now.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
918. bohonkweatherman
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:52 (GMT)
Quoting will40:
wish we could send the rain to Tex
So do I, only a trace here since June 22, temps are still around 100 also, besides mornings being cooler I have seen little change here since May. Too Hot and Too Dry, now No humidity at all.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
917. TropicalAnalystwx13
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:51 (GMT)
Quoting wn1995:
Eastern North Carolina is getting just pounded by heavy rainfall right now.


You're telling me:

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
916. wn1995
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:48 (GMT)
Eastern North Carolina is getting just pounded by heavy rainfall right now.
Member Since: 17.07.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 207
915. luigi18
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:47 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:


This year, models have been shifting daily, specially with those sheared systems, that seem to be stationary... they should be updating it shortly...



Gracias! we will be watching!
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
914. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)
Quoting luigi18:


Why they didn't change the conus or the projected path?


This year, models have been shifting daily, specially with those sheared systems, that seem to be stationary... they should be updating it shortly...

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
913. luigi18
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:37 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:

It is, but it's supposed to start moving N... due to shear, it may leave the expected rains E of PR....


Why they didn't change the conus or the projected path?
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
912. TropicalAnalystwx13
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:36 (GMT)
All active tropical entities on planet Earth in order from weakest to strongest:

91L.INVEST.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN:



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W:



TROPICAL STORM NESAT:



TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA:



HURRICANE HILARY:


Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
911. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:36 (GMT)

906. islander101010 12:32 PM EDT on September 24, 2011


is a troll enough said and probably circumventing a ban
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
909. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:34 (GMT)
Quoting luigi18:


Sunline ophelia ,in the last frame moving more w than Norh?

It is, but it's supposed to start moving N... due to shear, I thought, it may leave the expected rains E of PR....

But looking at WU seems like rain will reach us....

Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
908. Sfloridacat5
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
91L is sandwiched between dry air to its west and east, but it does have nice moist path to the north. If it remains small, it could gain some strength, but I wouldn't expect too much.

Member Since: 16.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4788
907. HurricaneDean07
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:33 (GMT)
Could see 40% on 91L at 2Pm, but id give it an overall 60% of actually making it to Rina, though you can NEVER rule it out. There is some weak turning within the low, and and weak circulation could be atempting to form. It will be interesting to see what comes of it.
Member Since: 3.10.2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
906. islander101010
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:32 (GMT)
Quoting will40:

900. CitikatzSouthFL 12:23 PM EDT on September 24, 2011

look at its join date that will probably tell you something
dont care if that character is brand new he has something there fl is protected by natural barrriers first the greater antillias theyve saved the state yearly from disasters second is the gulf stream many in the southern gulf as well just east of florida follow the gulf stream up and out. so there that character does have a point.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
905. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:31 (GMT)
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.


Sorry I went away for a while....

Yes it looks like it won't be able to escape N.... Maybe that's the trayectory spread that the models are presenting now...
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
904. GeoffreyWPB
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:28 (GMT)
Miami NWS Discussion

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EAST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID WEST
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE SOUTHWEST
TODAY KEEPING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. SO THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE PWAT VALUES FROM THE MIA SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS ALSO AROUND
2.3 TO 2.4 INCHES. THIS IS NEAR THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 1.6 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO WILL ALSO ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND ALSO IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONTINENT AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ALL MODELS (ALTHOUGH THE NAM TO A LESSER
EXTENT) SHOW THIS MOISTURE COMING ACROSS S FL ON SUNDAY. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
903. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)

900. CitikatzSouthFL 12:23 PM EDT on September 24, 2011

look at its join date that will probably tell you something
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
902. luigi18
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sunline ophelia ,in the last frame moving more w than Norh?
Member Since: 21.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 470
901. TropicalAnalystwx13
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:26 (GMT)
Looks like 91L should come in just south of here...Lets hope it doesn't develop into something strong and put me in the NE eyewall. :P

I have my doubts it will develop though.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
900. CitikatzSouthFL
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:23 (GMT)
Quoting CANTTRUSTTHEM:
no matter where a storm develops or goes to they avoid florida like the plague they move away from florida even if they develop of the west or east coast of florida


God help me, I will respond with the proper answer to your silly statement...Guess you don't live in Florida? Guess you were not here for Francis, Jeanne AND Wilma??? Not to mention older, deadly hurricanes that have decimated Florida like, oh I don't know, oh yeah..ANDREW!
Thank you for your unscientific, not back by facts opinion. Everyone here is allowed one, but only one.
Member Since: 14.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414
899. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:22 (GMT)
12z GFS finally picks up 17 sends it due north at 120 hrs
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
898. HuracanTaino
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:21 (GMT)
Quoting Vlad959810:

There 's also BERTHA in 1996 and JOSE in 1999
and Jeanny in 2004
Member Since: 31.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
897. 7544
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:21 (GMT)
so is it 91l that will bring rain to se fl on sunday or just luck lol
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
896. CitikatzSouthFL
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:19 (GMT)
Quoting PcolaDan:




Thank you. I just love that chart!
Member Since: 14.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414
895. prcane4you
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:14 (GMT)
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
To me is looks like going west right now.See last visible shot.
Member Since: 23.06.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 760
893. CybrTeddy
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:12 (GMT)
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Thank you for answering that question re. Pacific storms becoming Atlantic storms! that's really interesting to know.

And now that there are four systems out there to be watched, whats the record number of systems in the Atlantic at one time? Four seems like a lot but I bet there have been more than this at one time during a season.


IIRC, 2007 in October clocked 7 AOIs.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
891. Vlad959810
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:11 (GMT)
Quoting SLU:


MH LUIS 1995, MH MARILYN 1995, MH HORTENSE 1996, H ERIKA 1997, MH GEORGES 1998 & MH LENNY 1999.

There 's also BERTHA in 1996, JOSE in 1999 and DEBBY in 2000
Member Since: 14.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
890. CitikatzSouthFL
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:08 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Member Since: 14.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414
889. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:07 (GMT)


Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
888. jonelu
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:05 (GMT)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a wet Sunday for southeast Florida...

I hope that pans out...we could use some more rain.
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
887. redwagon
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:04 (GMT)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like the expected rain in PR won't be ....it will keep E....


Southern EPAC sure is waking up today.
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
886. BlueSkiesAbove
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:04 (GMT)
Thank you for answering that question re. Pacific storms becoming Atlantic storms! that's really interesting to know.

And now that there are four systems out there to be watched, whats the record number of systems in the Atlantic at one time? Four seems like a lot but I bet there have been more than this at one time during a season.
Member Since: 4.09.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
885. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:04 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
884. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:03 (GMT)
91 will be running the gulf stream
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
883. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:02 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
882. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:01 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
881. CybrTeddy
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:59 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Rick Knabb and Crown Weather are both downplaying although NHC has it at 20%. We've seen 20%'ers develop before haven't we?


There was a 91L in the GOMEX in 2009 off Florida in August that had a low chance of developing, zip model support..

.. became Claudette the next day.
Member Since: 8.07.2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
880. sunlinepr
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:59 (GMT)
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
879. GeoffreyWPB
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:57 (GMT)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0416A OPHELIA
C. 25/1630Z
D. 20.4N 59.8W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1400Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 26/1800Z FIX FOR OPHELIA NEAR 22.3N 62.5W.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AT 26/1200Z
NEAR 30.0N 78.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
4. REMARK: POSSIBLE P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO OPHELIA
DEPARTING AT 25/1400Z.
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
878. will40
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:56 (GMT)
wish we could send the rain to Tex
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
877. GeoffreyWPB
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:56 (GMT)
Looks like a wet Sunday for southeast Florida...

Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
876. CitikatzSouthFL
24. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:54 (GMT)
FOUR things to watch in the Atlantic?? Ok, by a show of hands, who has previously stated the season was over?? Perhaps, you need to review The Chart again? LOL Anyone want to post it as I don't have one??

The Invest offshore of Florida is creating seriously HUMID day here and not a hint of a breeze. Maybe some wind at the beach, but nothing inland. Hope it spirals some rain bands our way today or tomorrow, tho.

You all have a great day!
Member Since: 14.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 414

Viewing: 926 - 876

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
60 °F
Selkeää