Ophelia temporarily strengthens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 22. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Ophelia passed just south of buoy 41041 early this morning, and the sustained winds of 60 mph measured at the buoy were a bit of a surprise, given the storm's sheared appearance on satellite imagery. Ophelia is showing the classic appearance of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear. The low level center of circulation is exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms have been pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show a large area of dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development. Ophelia will be passing north of buoy 41040 Friday morning, and the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia on Friday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and is likely to weaken the storm. However, the models have backed off on calling for outright dissipation of Ophelia this weekend, as some were calling for in their runs yesterday. Ophelia is having some trouble disentangling itself from a band of heavy thunderstorms to its south, associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This has likely kept the storm a little to the south of the expected track. Ophelia should begin moving more to the northwest by Friday, when the ridge of high pressure steering it westwards weakens. This should make the core of the storm miss the Northern Lesser Antilles. These islands could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and a few heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Sunday, but the islands will be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side, limiting the potential for adverse weather. At longer ranges, Ophelia may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary is expected to intensify into a hurricane and bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to coastal Mexico as the storm moves parallel to the coast, about 150 miles offshore. Hilary may turn north and affect Baja 7 - 10 days now, but it is too early to lay odds on this. In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa this morning is predicted by the GFS and NOGAPS models to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week for this disturbance.


Figure 2. NASA posted a spectacular movie yesterday of the Aurora Australis taken by the International Space Station. The rippling green curtains of the aurora as the space station zooms overhead are amazing!

Jeff Masters

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606. hcubed
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting leelee75k:


dude, I've been paying since 2005


I think he means "pay to post".
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
605. STLweatherjunkie
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:25 (GMT)
Quoting superpete:
I'm on a Macbook & it has had zero trouble in two years, not a glitch. But a friend has a Macbook Pro which has a few more performance features, while similar.


good luck getting a decent mac computer for less than 1 grand, asus makes good products for pretty cheap.
Member Since: 9.09.2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 1038
604. XLR8
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 17.02.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 205
603. scooster67
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
Seems Mexico has gotten very lucky with Hilary paralleling the coast. I but the surf is up for the surfers who dare. :)
Member Since: 26.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
602. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Hilary on MIMIC. Hard wobble toward MX right before the turn out to sea (for now) must of raised a few eyebrows...
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
601. mossyhead
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:01 (GMT)
Quoting superpete:
I'm on a Macbook & it has had zero trouble in two years, not a glitch. But a friend has a Macbook Pro which has a few more performance features, while similar.
I have a 14 inch Toshiba and a 10 inch Asus. The Toshiba is real good.
Member Since: 7.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 473
600. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Quoting MoltenIce:
Stadium effect?


Looks like it.

I think I see the 50 yard line.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
599. superpete
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Quoting scooster67:
So, my Dell 1501 got the "Blue Screen of death" yesterday. Does anyone have a good suggestion for a under $1000.00 laptop that is good quality? I was thinking Toshiba.
I'm on a Macbook & it has had zero trouble in two years, not a glitch. But a friend has a Macbook Pro which has a few more performance features, while similar.
Member Since: 10.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
598. MoltenIce
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:51 (GMT)
Stadium effect?
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
597. Neapolitan
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Not a lot of wind yet, of course, but cyclonic turning is evident according to ASCAT:

ASCAT
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13258
596. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:48 (GMT)
Cambodia's flood death toll reaches 58

kshipre1~ Some MJO models forecast upward lift (potential DOOM) for the region then. Singling out FL seems a little unfair this early on.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
595. MoltenIce
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
594. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:43 (GMT)
Quoting Skyepony:
Hilary is raging.. Probably not done intensifying yet.


I'm secretly watching the NHC looking for the upgrade later this morning possibly.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
593. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:42 (GMT)
Quoting kshipre1:
ok can someone please please confirm something for me?

I have been hearing of late that tropical activity is going to pick up drastically in the middle of October and Florida is the primary threat due to October steering patterns and currents

has anyone else heard anything on tropics picking up in the western and central caribbean?

too early to be worried on my part because it is all guesses or predictions but I am going overseas on October 19 and the "mid October" part is freaking me out. hope there will be no problems with my flight! yikes!


The pattern favors formation in the Caribbean in a week or two.

Obviously, not a sure fire thing by any stretch, but models suggest favorable conditions in early October.

Nothing to change your plans over, there's nothing there yet.

And even if it were, it would have to hit your airport on the 19th to be an issue unless the place got hammered, but chances are that won't happen. Remember on any given day your much -less- likely to have a hurricane than to have one.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
592. leelee75k
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:41 (GMT)
Quoting EcoLogic:
Poll:
Who would welcome a paid version of this blog, to the end that at least some trolls would be filtered out?


I love the technical discussion here, but the time it takes to sort through all of the drama is becoming prohibitive.


dude, I've been paying since 2005
Member Since: 9.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 557
591. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
Models turning a bit north there at the end..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
590. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:37 (GMT)
Hilary is raging.. Probably not done intensifying yet.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
589. kshipre1
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
ok can someone please please confirm something for me?

I have been hearing of late that tropical activity is going to pick up drastically in the middle of October and Florida is the primary threat due to October steering patterns and currents

has anyone else heard anything on tropics picking up in the western and central caribbean?

too early to be worried on my part because it is all guesses or predictions but I am going overseas on October 19 and the "mid October" part is freaking me out. hope there will be no problems with my flight! yikes!
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130
588. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:34 (GMT)
On Hilary model verification on where TVCN is best, GFDL, CMC, LBAR is doing pretty well too. Intensity overall models didn't do so well, LGEM leads there.
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
587. MoltenIce
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:29 (GMT)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Ha! I'm a troll because I don't see the same things you are in regards to Hilary? LMAO. So you're the second coming now? I don't see Hilary as that organized. That's all. We're all here to discuss the storm. Let's have fun and do that!
Hah, sorry for that.

Yes, let's track Hilary instead of mindless bickering. :D
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
586. Skyepony (Mod)
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Sun comes up on an Ophelia once again firing a little convection from the center. A touch better shape then last night. RGB Floater..
Member Since: 10.08.2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36062
585. MoltenIce
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:25 (GMT)
Quoting Gearsts:
That's 20W.
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
584. weathermanwannabe
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Good Morning. Once again things relatively quiet in the Atlantic Basin and another storm on the E-Pac side late in their season. This has been very prevalent this year with a very active Pacific Basin.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8267
583. islander101010
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
toshiba is good got one few months back like may no problems
mac book last longer is better but still made in china
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4017
582. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting sflweatherguy:



If something develops in the bahamas it would move N
or even NE theres a troff over the SE right now.


Big 'un too.

Flow today across FL is E to W, and over the next 48 hours it reverses W to E.

Lots of rain for the eastern side of the peninsula by Sunday.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
581. Relix
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Big Difference between Ophelia and Maria...

Ophelia has a very good center.
Member Since: 3.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
580. sflweatherguy
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
could florida have a visit from a suprise td ir ts moving in from the bahmas area???,the little engine that could??



If something develops in the bahamas it would move N
or even NE theres a troff over the SE right now.
Member Since: 16.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
579. CaicosRetiredSailor
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)


Ophelia
Member Since: 12.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
578. indianrivguy
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting scooster67:
I have no problem understanding Taz.


Link

Member Since: 23.09.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2429
577. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:


Nice vorticity in that area just NW. of the Leewards and E of FL and Bahamas.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
575. whepton3
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting scooster67:
So, my Dell 1501 got the "Blue Screen of death" yesterday. Does anyone have a good suggestion for a under $1000.00 laptop that is good quality? I was thinking Toshiba.


That's what I have... I bought it in '08 and never have had a day of trouble with it.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
574. FLWeatherFreak91
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting scooster67:
So, my Dell 1501 got the "Blue Screen of death" yesterday. Does anyone have a good suggestion for a under $1000.00 laptop that is good quality? I was thinking Toshiba.
Are you kidding???? After experiencing the blue screen of death on a pc, I could look no other direction than Apple....

Get a 13" macbook pro from apple. It's the best laptop out there, and even if you are stubborn enough not to use mac os x lion, you can still run your windows 7 on the mac seamlessly.
Member Since: 1.12.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3616
573. stillwaiting
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
could florida have a visit from a suprise td ir ts moving in from the bahmas area???,the little engine that could??
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
572. scooster67
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:00 (GMT)
Quoting Bayside:


Read your comments, that's a laugh... they are not comprehensible.
I have no problem understanding Taz. Are you that shallow?
Member Since: 26.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
571. scooster67
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:59 (GMT)
So, my Dell 1501 got the "Blue Screen of death" yesterday. Does anyone have a good suggestion for a under $1000.00 laptop that is good quality? I was thinking Toshiba.
Member Since: 26.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
570. EcoLogic
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:58 (GMT)
Poll:
Who would welcome a paid version of this blog, to the end that at least some trolls would be filtered out?


I love the technical discussion here, but the time it takes to sort through all of the drama is becoming prohibitive.
Member Since: 29.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
569. Bayside
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
GOOD LORD, ENOUGH ALREADY! Do we really have to start the bickering and name calling this early in the morning? I have been lurking and occasionally posting for years now, but I have NEVER seen so much "drama", insults, name calling, and ridiculas stuff on this site as has been posted the last couple of weeks. I come here for insightful, intelligent information about the tropics and to learn. PLEASE TAKE A TIME OUT, COOL DOWN AND LET'S BE RESPECTFUL TO ONE ANOTHER. If you don't like another person's post, just ignore or hide.

Thank you all very much.


If that was meant for me in any way, please accept my appologies for my two posts, I feel the same way and am tired of reading posts like "poof". As the season is winding down I am coming here less and less for the comments because the value has been lost over the last month or two. Partly because the season is winding down, but I used to come here in the off season and still read good comments. I rarely post as you can see in my numbers and most of those are when I am in or close to being in the "cone".

Cheers
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
568. mrpuertorico
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:50 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
Still pretty interesting east of the Leeward Islands and Bahamas though.
Linkrainbowloopcarib



have a great day everyone
yeah forecast looks worse now for antilles islands instead of being on dry side of a TS looks like rain might be in the forecast for the end of the weekend and the start of the next work week
Member Since: 10.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
567. CitikatzSouthFL
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:49 (GMT)
GOOD LORD, ENOUGH ALREADY! Do we really have to start the bickering and name calling this early in the morning? I have been lurking and occasionally posting for years now, but I have NEVER seen so much "drama", insults, name calling, and ridiculas stuff on this site as has been posted the last couple of weeks. I come here for insightful, intelligent information about the tropics and to learn. PLEASE TAKE A TIME OUT, COOL DOWN AND LET'S BE RESPECTFUL TO ONE ANOTHER. If you don't like another person's post, just ignore or hide.

Thank you all very much.
Member Since: 14.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 413
566. RitaEvac
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:49 (GMT)
I just caught a piece of debris from the infamous satellite that's being focused on. I turned it over and it said, "scratch and sniff" and when I did, I smelled rain.
Member Since: 14.07.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
564. Chicklit
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:43 (GMT)
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
560. Chicklit
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:40 (GMT)
Still pretty interesting east of the Leeward Islands and Bahamas though.
Linkrainbowloopcarib



have a great day everyone
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
559. Neapolitan
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:36 (GMT)
Ophelia barely hanging in:

AL, 16, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 520W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 225, 120, 0, 180, 1012, 175, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, S,
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13258
558. Chicklit
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:35 (GMT)
Good Morning. Hiliary is headed out to sea and Ophelia is well, under the weather.
So the next threat comes from CV at 10% this morning.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11034
556. leelee75k
23. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:30 (GMT)
area of weather near the Bahamas looks interesting, hope it brings South Florida some rain, we didn't get any of the action from yesterday that soaked Tampa and Central Florida areas.
Member Since: 9.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 557

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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