Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low; August was Earth's 4th - 8th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 17. syyskuuta 2011 klo 18:11 (GMT)

Share this Blog
34
+

Arctic sea ice extent hit its minimum on September 9 this year, falling to its second lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center . More than one third (35%) of the Arctic sea ice was missing this summer, compared to the 1979 - 2000 average. This is an area about the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2011 sea ice minimum was very close to the all-time record low set in 2007; in fact, the University of Bremen rated the 2011 loss the greatest on record. For the fourth consecutive year, and fourth time in recorded history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these waters since 1497.

While the record low sea ice year of 2007 was marked by a very unusual 1-in-20 year combination of weather conditions that favored ice loss (including clearer skies, favorable wind patterns, and warm temperatures), 2011's weather patterns were much closer to average. The fact we pretty much tied the record for most sea ice loss this year despite this rather ordinary weather is a result of the fact that large amounts of thicker, multi-year ice has melted or been flushed out of the Arctic since 2007. As a result of the loss of this old, thick ice, both 2010 and now 2011 set new records for the lowest volume of sea ice in the Arctic, according the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Given the very thin ice now covering most of the Arctic, we can expect truly dramatic sea ice loss the next time 1-in-10 year or 1-in-20 year warmth and sunshine invades the Arctic. We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent in 2011 (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) and average (thick grey line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center .

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open for ice-free navigation--particularly ice-free navigation for multiple years in a row--between 1900 and 2000, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period, and the native Inuit people have no historical tales of the Passage being navigable at any time in the past.

The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD. A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.

However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton, according to the UK-based Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, whose researchers warn that "such a geographical shift could transform the biodiversity and functioning of the Arctic and North Atlantic marine ecosystems."

It is possible we'll have a better idea of historical ice-free conditions in the Arctic in the next few years. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was open during the past 12,000 years.

References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.

Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

August 2011: Earth's 4th - 8th warmest on record
August 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August the 4th warmest on record. Land temperatures during August were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America between 10°N and 20°N latitude, were 0.8°C above average, the 4rd warmest August on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). For more details on global extremes during August, see the details from weather historian Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Maria hits Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland, Canada yesterday afternoon near 3:30 pm local time as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. However, the hurricane's strongest winds were over water, and the storm brought very little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the island. Cape Race at the southeast tip of Newfoundland saw sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph at 3:30 pm Friday as the center of the storm passed. Winds in the capital of St. John's peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Maria's strike makes this Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Hurricane Maria taken at 12:15 pm EDT September 16, 2011. At the time, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

Invest 97L
For the first day since August 18, we don't have a named storm in the Atlantic. However, we have a new area to watch. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Friday and is now 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The wave has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin, and has been designated Invest 97L by NHC. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, 5 - 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Tuesday morning. Ocean temperatures are 27.5°C, one degree above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 97L is embedded in a moist environment.

Most of the models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday; NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook. 97L should head west or west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles over the next six days, and could arrive in the islands as early as Friday--though most of the models predict a later arrival. It is likely 97L will encounter the usual troubles storms this year have had with wind shear and dry air on the long trek across the Atlantic.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll discuss the long-range hurricane outlook for the rest of September.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1427 - 1377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

1427. KeepingItReal
20. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:02 (GMT)
The sea ice (Climate Change) scare tactic is getting old quick. The creator of the internet (Al Gore) has the largest carbon footprint in all of TN. Apparently he's living proof that manmade global warming is BS... Put down your progressive kool-aid and sip on the real deal Holyfield story below! Nuff said!
===================================

World Atlas ice loss claim exaggerated: Credit: Reuters/Svebor Kranjc

By Nina Chestney

LONDON | Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:27pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - The Times Atlas of the World exaggerated the rate of Greenland's ice loss in its thirteenth edition last week, scientists said on Monday.

The atlas, published by HarperCollins, showed that Greenland lost 15 percent of its ice cover over the past 12 years, based on information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado in the United States.

The Greenland ice sheet is the second biggest in the world and significant shrinking could lead to a global rise in sea levels.

"While global warming has played a role in this reduction, it is also as a result of the much more accurate data and in-depth research that is now available," HarperCollins said on its website on Monday.

However, a number of scientists disputed the claim.

"We believe that the figure of a 15 percent decrease in permanent ice cover since the publication of the previous atlas 12 years (ago) is both incorrect and misleading," said Poul Christoffersen, glaciologist at the Scott Polar Research Institute (SPRI) at the University of Cambridge.

"We concluded that a sizable portion of the area mapped as ice-free in the Atlas is clearly still ice-covered."

Other scientists agreed.

"These new maps are ridiculously off base, way exaggerated relative to the reality of rapid change in Greenland," said Jeffrey S. Kargel, senior research scientist at the University of Arizona.

The Times Atlas suggested the Greenland ice sheet has lost 300,000 square kilometers in the past 12 years, at a rate of 1.5 percent per year.

However, measurements suggest this rate is at least 10 times faster than in reality, added J. Graham Cogley, Professor of Geography at Trent University, Ontario, Canada.

"It could easily be 20 times too fast and might well be 50 times too fast," he added.

Last year, a U.N. committee of climate scientists came under fire for bungling a forecast of when Himalayan glaciers would thaw.

The panel's 2007 report, the main guide for governments in fighting climate change, included an incorrect projection that all Himalayan glaciers could vanish by 2035, hundreds of years earlier than scientists' projections.

Member Since: 18.09.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1426. weatherbro
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:40 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!!!!!
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
1425. jpsb
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:24 (GMT)
Quoting Cotillion:
Ooops.

"Leading UK polar scientists say the Times Atlas of the World was wrong to assert that it has had to re-draw its map of Greenland due to climate change.

Publicity for the latest edition of the atlas, launched last week, said warming had turned 15% of Greenland's former ice-covered land "green and ice-free".

But scientists from the Scott Polar Research Institute say the figures are wrong; the ice has not shrunk so much."

Naughty.

(however, before anyone tries to claim it's some conspiracy, note the following: 'The Times Atlas is not owned by The Times newspaper. It is published by Times Books, an imprint of HarperCollins, which is in turn owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation.' Same conglomerate behind Fox.)
Does not matter, 15% of Greenland ice cover melted in the last 12 years is now "a fact" in the popular press. So that is that, it's a done deal. Good luck trying to convince believers other wise.
Member Since: 30.06.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1010
1424. JBirdFireMedic
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:11 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
1422. Isometric
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:06 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



ok its monday not in the mood to argue but every post you made so far this morning makes you really look stupid


Agreed. Monday morning is no time to argue. In fact, my stupidity is rapidly growing larger the longer I converse with you.

Where's that dawg-gone ignore button?
Member Since: 28.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1421. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:03 (GMT)
Quoting whepton3:


I like that map... noticed it was an experimental. Hope to see that one make more appearances.
Go to NOAA web site and click hurricane on the left column..You will find more maps like it there..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1419. Vincent4989
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
*98L rips 99L's clothes off*
*99L is now naked*
Member Since: 13.11.2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 728
1418. ackee
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:
98L very close to TD status IMO.
SEEM LIKE jamaica, cayman, and cuba have had a quite seasons so far does seem like that wont change anytime soon unless SW carrb have some suprise
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
1417. Isometric
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:58 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



you think what you want pal i been on the money...i dont even recognize you...you must be a newbie...i been on since 2004


Been lurking here since the discussions of Katrina in 2005. I never post because I am by no means an expert at the weather. Looks like you fall into that same category it seems. Except you post comments that don't even come close to what really happens.


I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it. ~Edith Sitwell

Member Since: 28.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1416. uptxcoast
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
OK, I went in Vacation in June to DFW and 2 nights were rained out. That was the last rain until this weekend, where I also took the weekend off to head for the Hill Country.

I think I need to take more time off and travel the state.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 233
1415. HurricaneHunterJoe
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:57 (GMT)
Good Morning to all from Soo Cal
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
1414. whepton3
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:55 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Link The predicted path is a bit unsettling...


I like that map... noticed it was an experimental. Hope to see that one make more appearances.
Member Since: 19.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 645
1413. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:53 (GMT)
Quoting ackee:
which storm was the most intresting to track this seasons ?

A IRENE
B KATIA
C LEE
D MARIA
E NATE
F EMILY
Irene..Horrible to see the destruction tho..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1412. 3211976
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:52 (GMT)
Ex 97L is stating to join  with 98L from the northeast.
Let's see if that is the last energy kick to start things rolling.

Member Since: 25.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1411. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:50 (GMT)
Quoting Drakoen:
Here is a qualitative depiction of the upper level flow around 98L. Notice the upper level troughing to the north and far-off the northwest over by the Greater Antilles. Eastern Atlantic upper level ridge extends outward towards the large trough in the subtropical Atlantic meeting at the axis of upper level convergence, which could have an impact on 98L if it gains any poleward movement. One thing that I have been noticing on the the water vapor imagery on the Atlantic over the last couple of days is the amount of convection filling in and degenerating the upper level lows in to upper trough. We may see shear abate over the MDR over the next couple of days as the subtropical jet stream moves to the north.

Great post Drak..Things could get busy again...Quite a bit of season left and October can be fierce.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1410. HCW
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:49 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.08.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1346
1409. ackee
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:49 (GMT)
which storm was the most intresting to track this seasons ?

A IRENE
B KATIA
C LEE
D MARIA
E NATE
F EMILY
Member Since: 15.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1341
1407. TXMegaWatt
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:47 (GMT)
Quoting Isometric:


Ahh...I sigh in disgust everytime this guy gives a forecast. Usually not even close.
Quoting basti11:
unless something develops in the WESTERN CARIBBEAN fla has nothing to worry about...i do think the action will pick up in the caribbean and threaten south fla next week...also the cuba and the bahamas are still in the soup so keep a watchful eye out..


I feel the exact same way. They are almost humerous :)
Member Since: 28.12.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
1406. Drakoen
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:45 (GMT)
Here is a qualitative depiction of the upper level flow around 98L. Notice the upper level troughing to the north and far-off the northwest over by the Greater Antilles. Eastern Atlantic upper level ridge extends outward towards the large trough in the subtropical Atlantic meeting at the axis of upper level convergence, which could have an impact on 98L if it gains any poleward movement. One thing that I have been noticing on the the water vapor imagery on the Atlantic over the last couple of days is the amount of convection filling in and degenerating the upper level lows in to upper trough. We may see shear abate over the MDR over the next couple of days as the subtropical jet stream moves to the north.

Member Since: 28.10.2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
1402. GeoffreyWPB
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:36 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10587
1400. Neapolitan
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:28 (GMT)
NOAA's Climate Services division has released a drought map showing the departure in precipitation from normal for the period from October 1, 2010, to August 21, 2011:

Uh-oh

The Climate Prediction Center says that the hardest hit areas of this map will be in overall drought conditions for at least the next 12 months.

Not good...
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13292
1399. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Link
Quoting SPLbeater:
98L looks good,may be reaching end of our atlantic lull of the season. i think Ophelia is only few dozen hours away
The predicted path is a bit unsettling...
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1397. CaribBoy
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
MJO forecast..


EXCELLENT!
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
1396. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:16 (GMT)
MJO forecast..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1395. CaribBoy
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:14 (GMT)
I'm NOT HAPPY THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGHTEN! 98L = EMILY = MARIA. Organazing then decoupling then reorganazing then being sheared.. and so and so and blablabla. BORING!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHY THE ATLANTIC ALWAYS DO THAT. REALLY S..Ks
Member Since: 6.10.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5605
1394. bohonkweatherman
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:12 (GMT)
Quoting FortBendMan:
Another good lines of storms came through Houston this morning (well good in that they brought more rain - bad if they knocked down any trees although ultimately it will do way more good than harm). Another. 83 inches of rain at my house which gets me close to 3 inches in 3 days.

The rain will let up in this part of Texas later this morning likely. We may have light rain the next two days with a slightly better chance of rain Thursday in advance of a cold front that definitely will cool things down and dry the air again.

Hopefully my Texas friends did as well as we did.
The Austin area and within 80 miles got little to no rain. Good rains at San Antonio, around Waco and Houston also but that is about it for here, unfortunately the front Wed night is suppose to come thru dry here. Looks to be dry for quite some time after that next front, hot the next 3 days.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
1393. SPLbeater
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:09 (GMT)
98L looks good,may be reaching end of our atlantic lull of the season. i think Ophelia is only few dozen hours away
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1392. kwgirl
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:04 (GMT)
Good morning all. Despite Dr. M's topic of this blog, it looks like we have two invests to watch and they are keeping the discussion in that direction. Thank Goodness.

The weather here in the Keys this weekend definitely had a "fall" feel to it. At least in the Keys. Sunny and dryer weather. Even had some cool breezes off of building thunderstorms. Scattered clouds definitely kept the temps down somewhat. I guess that's why we call it partly sunny rather than partly cloudy. Now to watch the invests and hope they don't get too strong. The first of October in the Keys has had some history of bad hurricanes hitting, I believe in 1910 and 1911. We don't need anything like that again! I will be in and out looking at your valued opinions of these storms, but know it will take a while to get a good handle on them. I'm keeping everything crossed for luck. Luck to keep the storm away from the keys or at least make it a weak one. Have a good day!
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1391. freewinds
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:02 (GMT)

Ice Melting?
Link
Member Since: 4.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1390. stormpetrol
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:55 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1389. GeoffreyWPB
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10587
1388. stormpetrol
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:53 (GMT)
98L very close to TD status IMO.
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1387. UPRM1CIMA
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:50 (GMT)
Hi HT,

I was interested in this and checked the NHC database for PR, they don't show a storm within 2 deg of the island in all of 1868. Wikipedia doesn't mention a storm connection either. Do you have a link to the source of this information? Thanks.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
For us in PUerto Rico "El grito De Lares" an insurrection for the independence of PUerto Rico,September 23, 1868 failed mostly because the help that were expecting in the island from the DR, some Ships full with weapons and men, couldn't cross the Mona Canal, their was a Hurricane crossing the Channel. A Weather fact that changed history for our island.
Member Since: 24.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 34
1386. Cotillion
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:45 (GMT)
Quoting Patrap:





The Siege of Bastogne was an engagement between American and German ... American forces were relieved by elements of General George Patton's 3rd Army. .... The American soldiers were outnumbered and lacking in cold-weather gear, ...

The Siege at Bastogne,

The Siege of Bastogne was an engagement between American and German forces at the Belgian town of Bastogne, as part of the larger Battle of the Bulge.

The goal of the German offensive was the harbor at Antwerp. In order to reach it before the Allies could regroup and bring their superior air power to bear, German mechanized forces had to seize the roadways through eastern Belgium.

Because all seven main roads in the Ardennes mountain range converged on the small town of Bastogne, control of its crossroads was vital to the German attack.

The siege lasted from 20-27 December when the besieged American forces were relieved by elements of General George Patton's 3rd Army.


You know, I just watched Band of Brothers (by HBO) the other day - first time in a while.

The 101st Airborne still disagree with the interpretation of Patton's 'rescue'.
Member Since: 23.08.2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1385. stillwaiting
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:42 (GMT)
one things for sure we've had northerly componant to our winds here in swfl for the lastbweek or so,imo floridas seasons over as the contental airmass should inhibit any strong tc should it headvtowards the area imo
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1384. weatherbro
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:38 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not disagreeing with you, but where'd you see that? Intellicast's 10-day forecast for Orlando calls for highs from 87 to 90 through the middle of next week, along with lows from 72 to 75.

In my many years in South Florida, it's been fairly consistent: the first real chill of fall always shows up during the last 10 days of October. There may be a few teasers ahead of that, but I've never broken out the light jackets before then.


Well Accuweather.com has sunny-p cloudy skies with highs in the 80's and lows in the 60's by early next week on their 15 day outlook.

A few models want to stall it initially before another piece of energy chucks it on through here by mid-week.
Member Since: 26.05.2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
1383. ncstorm
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:38 (GMT)
00Z CMC


06 Nogaps..Islands..
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13475
1382. ncstorm
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:37 (GMT)
The 00z Euro..a lot of lows off the NC coast.



Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13475
1381. Neapolitan
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:28 (GMT)
Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Orlando's first front should arrive by Sunday/Monday-Our first taste of Fall!

Not disagreeing with you, but where'd you see that? Intellicast's 10-day forecast for Orlando calls for highs from 87 to 90 through the middle of next week, along with lows from 72 to 75.

In my many years in South Florida, it's been fairly consistent: the first real chill of fall always shows up during the last 10 days of October. There may be a few teasers ahead of that, but I've never broken out the light jackets before then.
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13292
1380. presslord
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:22 (GMT)
My mind ain't what it used to be...and, frankly, it was never that great....I recall Patton asking the Chaplain to pray for the weather to lift...and the Chaplain said "I'm not sure how the Almighty will receive a prayer to help us kill our enemies...and I'm pretty sure Patton replied with a string of profanity..."
Member Since: 13.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
1379. hydrus
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:20 (GMT)
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19595
1378. Patrap
19. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:17 (GMT)
Morn Padre'
Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681

Viewing: 1427 - 1377

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
43 °F
Puolipilvistä