Tropical Storms Nate, Maria have formed; 2011 season on the heels of 2005's numbers

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7. syyskuuta 2011 klo 23:25 (GMT)

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Tropical Storm Nate formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon after Hurricane Hunters found a well-defined surface circulation in Invest 96L. Nate is the 14th named storm this year, and comes three days before the climatological half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, September 10. A typical hurricane season has just 10 - 11 named storms, so we've already had 35% more than a whole season's worth of storms before reaching the season's half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 28 named storms, equalling the all-time record set in 2005. Nate's formation date of September 7 puts 2011 in 2nd place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 14th storm. Only 2005 had an earlier formation date of the season's 14th named storm (September 6, when Hurricane Nate got named.) Third place is now held jointly by 1936 and 1933, which got their 14th storm of the season on September 10.

This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission into Invest 96L/Nate found maximum sustained winds of at least 45 mph, and minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Wind shear in the region is low and is expected to remain low for the next 48 hours. Sea surface temperature is toasty in the Gulf at around 30°C (86°F) and more than ample to support intensification. Nate will bring heavy rains and potential flooding and mudslides to Mexico, and according to some weather models, also has the potential to be a U.S. landfall threat. Nate's surface circulation is apparent on satellite loops, although the thunderstorm activity in the storm is displaced from the center. It appears the strongest storms are to the southwest and northeast of the center. East of the storm, thunderstorms are churning associated with the stationary front that's draped across Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This stationary front is left over from the cold front that pushed south through the central and eastern U.S. earlier this week, and created a focal point in the Gulf of Mexico for Tropical Storm Nate to form. It's notoriously difficult for weather models and forecasters to predict tropical cyclones that spin up in the Gulf of Mexico, but lead-time for both Nate and our previous Gulf cyclone, Lee, was generous.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Nate at 6:15pm EDT.

Forecast for Tropical Storm Nate
Given the favorable environment, in addition to a very warm pocket of sea surface waters in the central Gulf of Mexico, we expect that Nate will intensify modestly over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Nate will become the third hurricane of the season by Friday. The HWRF and ECMWF agree with this forecast—both of these models bring Nate to a category 2 hurricane by Saturday. The IVCN/ICON consensus models that the Hurricane Center relies on are more conservative, peaking at category 1 intensity. Nate's maximum potential intensity is heavily dependent on its track, which, according to the weather models, has been up in the air for the past few of days. Until this afternoon's run, the ECMWF has held true to its forecast that Nate will track north and make landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Florida. This afternoon, it backed off of that solution and is now forecasting a northern Mexico landfall. The GFS has consistently forecasted a track that lingers in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before ultimately making dive to the west into Mexico. Over the past few days the Canadian CMC model has been reluctant to develop Nate at all, but today is forecasting the system to track north into the Southeast U.S. states. Now that there is Hurricane Hunter data to ingest (as well as confirmed 45 mph surface wind speeds), we expect the models will come into better agreement on both track and intensity for Tropical Storm Nate.

Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Depression 14 was named Tropical Storm Maria late this morning, as well. The storm is still pretty far east in the Atlantic, 1,200 miles east of the Leeward Islands, but is moving quickly to the west at 23 mph. According to the National Hurricane Center, Maria looks well-organized on satellite, "but not really." If you look closely at satellite loops (especially the loops that you can catch before the sun sets in that area), you'll see the surface circulation is located to the west of the strongest thunderstorm activity. Well-organized tropical cyclones will be vertically stacked in the atmosphere, with the strongest thunderstorms directly on top of the surface circulation. Maria's disjointed-ness is likely due to a pretty strong clip of wind shear (30 knots worth) in the area. This would usually be deadly for a tropical cyclone of Maria's strength, but since the storm is moving so quickly to the west, the Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to remain somewhat intact for the next 5 days, although the forecast is for no intensification. Models are coming into better agreement on the track of this system. Prior to today, the ECMWF was forecasting a track south of Puerto Rico, but has since changed its mind and is now in agreement with many of the other models on a track skirting the northern Leeward Islands and missing the Greater Antilles to the north. Beyond this, there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on steering winds in the Atlantic. It's still too early to guess which track the models will eventually converge on. Climatology favors a track that would miss land, with Dr. Bob Hart's track history pages suggesting Maria has a 22% chance of hitting Canada, 19% chance of hitting Bermuda, and an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina.

Angela

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1322. kwgirl
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 20:38 (GMT)
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
IMO - just analyzing the 12, 06 GFS runs - I think that Nate can make a little more N Mexico / extreme S TX landfall - similar to a TS that hit around the border area early last year.

I think that Maria makes a more southerly track and then once beyond say the Bahamas, the track will either come extremely close to FL / SC/ NC coast before turning sharply back N to NE towards Bermuda OR scenario #2 would be a N course into the east side of NC.

I think the 3 day track is fairly accurate for Nate, and for Maria I think the 3 day track may adjust for her shifting somewhat south. Long range track for Maria looks more complicated than Nate which begs the question - ....how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you find a word that means Maria? A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Sorry- couldnt resist
LOL I was singing right along with you:)
Member Since: 28.03.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1321. hcubed
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:28 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



im just telling you if you know anything about hurricanes with this setup over nate you should see only one track and thats mexico...the DRY AIR will keep nate where he is and not move north...just giving my 98% for sure nate is mexicos storm without a doubt...everyone can make up for last week and hit the beaches NATE will not bother them no problems from nate..


And if anyone dies because of rip currents, well, shame on you for listening to this guy.

No matter WHO he was or whatever "experience" he has, it's just plain dumb to make comments like this.
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1320. Chicklit
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:17 (GMT)
Texas high and dry bolstered by dust shield.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
1319. dmh1026
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:57 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:
the BAD NEWS for MEXICO nate could turn into a very powerful hurricane with the ssts being so warm down ther in the BOC...i would not be surprise for nate to go into a RI stage as the high from the caribbean builds northward....this is a very DANGEROUS scenario playing out for the people of VERACRUZ...
You are amazing. You give better forecasts than the NHC. NOT!
Member Since: 16.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
1318. 69Viking
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:52 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



i want you to answer a very important question for me how is nate going to move into the DRY AIR and survive also not to mention the WINDSHEAR if he goes NORTH like you said...no way in hell that can happen...


I never said he was going anywhere, I simply wishcast him to arrive on Mon. or Tues. IF he decides to come this way like Lee did and NOT ruin my weekend with 9 inches of rain again. I think it's a toss up right now, 50/50 that he goes North and then West in Mexico or he goes NE towards the Eastern Gulf Coast. If the reason I give it a 50% chance of heading NE is that if you look at the water vapor loop of the Eastern U.S. you can see the cutoff low left over from Lee is moving West, maybe slightly SW and that COULD open a weakness for Lee to move off to the NE. Too many variables right now to say more than 50% one way or the other.
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
1317. WhoDat42
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting Buhdog:


dude, it's all good. At lest you back it up with reasons why...if more people did that it would be better wunderworld. I would personally never put 98% on anything...lol that is really putting yourself out there is all. Thanks for you conviction i guess.


+1000... regardless if your right or wrong, you made a forecast and back it up with your reasoning behind it. Most mets say model consenus and are afraid to make a prediction for fear of being wrong. Mother nature will do whatever she wants regardless of models or predictions.
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1316. Caner
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:50 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



im just telling you if you know anything about hurricanes with this setup over nate you should see only one track and thats mexico...the DRY AIR will keep nate where he is and not move north...just giving my 98% for sure nate is mexicos storm without a doubt...everyone can make up for last week and hit the beaches NATE will not bother them no problems from nate..



Yeah, i have only been through the eyewall of David, Hugo, Fran, Georges, Ivan, (twice), Katrina, Rita and Gustav... With a near misses on Andrew and Emily. (Emily stayed just offshore, Andrew was just too violent, i (wisely) backed off about 40 miles North of Homestead.

Plus quite a few tropical storms.

I probably know very little about hurricanes compared to someone like you, however.

I know with a 98% certainty that i could never make a landfall prediction with 98% certainty this early, and in such a weak environment...

That's probably due to my inexperience, however...
Member Since: 27.06.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 179
1314. SLU
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:48 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1313. SLU
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:47 (GMT)
Major southward adjustment in MARIA's track.
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1312. SLU
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:46 (GMT)
000
WTNT44 KNHC 081443
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011

MARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO
LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND
CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS
IS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
WAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
REGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS
HOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN.

MARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS
FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
AFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 13.0N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 14.5N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 25.0N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1311. SLU
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:45 (GMT)
...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD IN A HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 51.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1310. 19N81W
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:45 (GMT)
hydrus...can you tell us why?...not being rude just want to know as I live in the tropics and travel often.

All I see is lots of dry air and nothing getting really organized?
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1308. Buhdog
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:44 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



no need to change my handle im giving you a 98% that nate goes into MEXICO...like i said the 2% is just in case NATE would hang around down there for 5 days then if that happened and its a big if NATE would then have the opportunity to move north towads the cetral GOM...2% THAT HAPPENS.if it does we will know because nate will not move until tuesday..


dude, it's all good. At lest you back it up with reasons why...if more people did that it would be better wunderworld. I would personally never put 98% on anything...lol that is really putting yourself out there is all. Thanks for you conviction i guess.
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
1307. wayfaringstranger
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:43 (GMT)
IMO - just analyzing the 12, 06 GFS runs - I think that Nate can make a little more N Mexico / extreme S TX landfall - similar to a TS that hit around the border area early last year.

I think that Maria makes a more southerly track and then once beyond say the Bahamas, the track will either come extremely close to FL / SC/ NC coast before turning sharply back N to NE towards Bermuda OR scenario #2 would be a N course into the east side of NC.

I think the 3 day track is fairly accurate for Nate, and for Maria I think the 3 day track may adjust for her shifting somewhat south. Long range track for Maria looks more complicated than Nate which begs the question - ....how do you solve a problem like Maria? How do you catch a cloud and pin it down? How do you find a word that means Maria? A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Sorry- couldnt resist
Member Since: 12.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
1306. hydrus
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:43 (GMT)
Quoting Dakster:


I guess that depends on where you live as to whether that is good or bad... (j/k)
The situation in the tropics could get really ugly...Especially when the MJO rolls back in.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19563
1305. Dakster
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Flight pattern for this afternoon's Gulfstream IV Synoptic Surveillance for Nate.





Would not be suprised if NWS stations along the Gulf Coast also do upper air at 18Z



When I first looked at it, I thought that was the potential track for Nate...
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9741
1304. 69Viking
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:42 (GMT)
Quoting fire635:


Guess I'll have to agree to disagree with you... NOTHING is 98% sure at this point. When Nate goes where he goes we will see who was right. I say Florida panhandle to Miss/Ala border.


Make sure you schedule that for a Mon. or Tues. landing so we at least get a day out of work this time and not just have our weekend rained out LOL!
Member Since: 25.08.2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2996
1303. Buhdog
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:41 (GMT)
Quoting WhoDat42:


that was the point!!


my favorite movie of all-time! I was with you the whole way!
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
1301. redwagon
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
Quoting wxobsvps:
12Z NAM looks like it MAY be setting up to come into more agreement with GFS/CMC.




That spinning blob in the Gulf of Honduras looks interesting, too.
Member Since: 4.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2804
1300. hydrus
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:40 (GMT)
ECMWF operational..144 hours..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19563
1299. nrtiwlnvragn
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Flight pattern for this afternoon's Gulfstream IV Synoptic Surveillance for Nate.





Would not be suprised if NWS stations along the Gulf Coast also do upper air at 18Z

Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
1298. WhoDat42
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Quoting Buhdog:


Link


over ruled!


that was the point!!
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1297. SLU
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:39 (GMT)
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
1296. angiest
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:38 (GMT)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bad setup for TX wildfires



That sure is what it is looking like.
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1294. Buhdog
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)

Quoting WhoDat42:


Mr Basti11, that is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.


Link


over ruled!
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
1293. fire635
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


Guess I'll have to agree to disagree with you... NOTHING is 98% sure at this point. When Nate goes where he goes we will see who was right. I say Florida panhandle to Miss/Ala border.
Member Since: 24.06.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1292. Dakster
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:37 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
This would not be good..HWRF..Link


I guess that depends on where you live as to whether that is good or bad... (j/k)
Member Since: 10.03.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9741
1291. SafeInTexas
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:36 (GMT)
Since Nate can't defeat the high over Texas, I hope he stays far away from us. Lee caused high winds over E. Texas that fanned huge fires. With some of the tracking models showing that Nate could pull a similar path, I'm sure fire departments here are very concerned. The FD's are running out of funds for operations, the equipments suffering years of wear and tear in months, and the staff is suffering fatigue. We are setup for the perfect 'fire'storm over the winter months if rain does not come.

To people in drought stricken areas.

Remove all brush and tall grass near structures on your property. Implore your neighbors to do the same. Dense groves of small pine trees explode in to flame when burned, have them removed if they are close to buildings. Avoid all spark causing activities outside, smoking, grilling, welding, driving in tall grass have all started fires this season.
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 63
1290. ScottLincoln
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
Even with many models hinting at the westward turn and Mexico landfall, many of us here seem to have the gut feeling that a more northward track is likely. But even so, it's not the track we want to have happen. After 10-15" of rainfall across the area from Lee, the rivers are elevated, the storages are full, and we wont be as lucky with minimal flood impacts as we were last weekend.
Member Since: 28.09.2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
1289. hydrus
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
This would not be good..HWRF..Link
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19563
1287. AvidWeatherHound
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:35 (GMT)
How will Maria's increased speed affect her forecast track?
Member Since: 5.09.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 78
1286. WhoDat42
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:33 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


Mr Basti11, that is a lucid, intelligent, well thought-out objection.

Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
1284. 19N81W
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
thanks for the replies guys...
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1283. Jax82
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting P451:
Nasa scrubbed it's rocket launch due to high upper level winds. They determined this using a WEATHER BALLOON.


Just goes to show how utterly useless this wind azimuth display is. I think we can stop posting them now.


MLB:



I thought thats how we were tracking Nate towards NOLA?
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
1282. Buhdog
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:32 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:



well i can tell you i have lots of knowledge when it comes to gulf hurricanes in the BOC...i see what you are saying i would agree with you if the high pressure south of nate in the caribbean would be stronger its weak so your thinking is just not going to happen unless NATE would stall in the BOC for 5 days...the huge strong high over texas will not let that happen...this is cut and dry i dont care what the models say MEXICO will get this one...


and the good news is that if you are wrong you can just change your handle again and comeback without egg on your face and start all over again! How cool is that?
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
1281. will40
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
wtg Stormtop you have nailed another one good job
Member Since: 19.09.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4066
1280. ILwthrfan
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
Quoting 19N81W:
Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year?


Large amounts of dry air both off Africa and then as storms near the Texas & Southeast coasts, storms have been pulling in dry contential air being intensified from droughts over the Southern U.S this season.
Member Since: 2.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
1279. 19N81W
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:31 (GMT)
http://www.stormpulse.com/2010-hurricane-season
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-irene-2011
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1277. help4u
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:30 (GMT)
cooler 500mb temps,coolest in 30 years= weaker storms
Member Since: 18.09.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1257
1275. 19N81W
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
thanks buhdog...
Member Since: 24.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 405
1274. OrchidGrower
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:29 (GMT)
Re: 1263 -- 19N81W -- Just had a look at last season and I know we are only in September and early sept. at that...we have only had two hurricanes and of the other storms they have seemed relatively harmless? What is the cause of generally weaker systems this year? -- Is it not because of the astonishing amount of dry air we've had across the Atlantic basin, and as Doc mentioned once, the warm dry air aloft that has squelched any "real" instability?
Member Since: 24.09.2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 379
1273. tatoprweather
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Right now Maria is missing the next forecast tropical point as shown in the floater.
Member Since: 29.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
1272. Buhdog
8. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:28 (GMT)
Quoting basti11:




that really doesnt matter lets just say i know how to predict hurricane movements and where they are going to go...i can assure you the gulfcoast has nothing to worry about this is MEXICO written all over it....


LOL stormtop jr using the flush model again.
Member Since: 30.07.2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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