Lee's winds fan deadly Texas fires; a dangerous day for Lee's floods and tornadoes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5. syyskuuta 2011 klo 16:43 (GMT)

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Texas' unprecedented heat wave and drought turned deadly yesterday when fires fanned by Tropical Storm Lee's gusty winds swept through East Texas, torching 300 homes near Austin, and killing a woman and her 18-month old daughter who couldn't escape the flames in Gladewater. At Austin Bergstrom Airport yesterday afternoon, the counter-clockwise circulation around Tropical Storm Lee brought sustained winds of 25 mph, gusting to 31. Lee didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin, and the afternoon high hit 102°, with a humidity of 22%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in extremely critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is marginally better--temperatures will be cooler, only reaching the upper 80s, but strong winds of 20 - 25 mph will continue to blow, and the atmosphere will be drier, with humidities in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has declared a "Critical" fire weather danger area for East Texas today, one level below yesterday's "Extremely Critical" conditions. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.)

Texas' unprecedented heat
For as long as people have been taking weather measurements in Texas, there has never been a summer hotter than the summer of 2011. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.


Figure 1. Observed rainfall for the seven-day period ending at 8 am EDT Monday Sep 5, 2011. Tropical Storm Lee had dumped in excess of ten inches of rain sections of Louisiana and Mississippi (pink colors). Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Heavy rains from Lee creating dangerous flooding situation
Tropical Storm Lee has been absorbed by a cold front, and is no longer a tropical depression. However, the remnants of Lee are bringing torrential rains to the South and Appalachians today, and pose a serious flood threat. NOAA's latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast warns that "an excessive and life-threatening rainfall event will be unfolding today and tonight across the Tennessee Valley and also the Southern Appalachians." A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected along the path of Lee's remnants as they slide northeastwards along the front. These rains will likely accumulate later this week to 2 - 3 inches over New England regions devastated by Hurricane Irene's floods. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has logged 22 tornado reports so far from Lee, and today promises to be the most serious day for tornadoes yet, with SPC predicting a "Moderate Risk" of tornadoes across the South. Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 10 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Mobile, AL: 11.35"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Cumberland City, TN: 5.09"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Plum Springs, KY: 3.10"


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period 8am EDT Monday - 8 am EDT Saturday, Sep 10, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 3. Severe weather risk for Monday, September 5, 2011.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia is close to major hurricane strength, and is now a high-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show a well-defined eye and good upper-level outflow on all sides, but the hurricane still has a lopsided appearance, due to the impacts of dry air and moderate wind shear on its south side.

The computer models have finally come into agreement on the long-range future of Katia, determining that the trough of low pressure that will develop over the Eastern U.S. later this week will turn the hurricane to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, though Newfoundland, Canada will need to watch future forecasts to see how close Katia may pass to the southeastern portion of that province. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia are arriving at the Southeast U.S. coast today, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf.


Figure 4. Afternoon satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west at 15 mph. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to drop to the low range tomorrow, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in two or so days. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday; given the storm's rather impressive organization and spin apparent on recent satellite loops, I'd put these odds at 40%. The NOGAPS model predicts 95L will develop by Saturday, a few hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but this storm could just as easily pass directly through the Lesser Antilles on Saturday or Sunday, and develop into a tropical storm much sooner. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend, pay attention to 95L.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee early this morning. The front is expected to continue to the east and stall out Tuesday and Wednesday along a line from Louisiana to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Several recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS models have given support to the idea that a tropical depression would form at the tail end of this front late this week, in Mexico's Bay of Campeche. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle, while a more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. NHC is currently not highlighting the Bay of Campeche in their Tropical Weather Outlook, and it will likely be Wednesday before enough heavy thunderstorms build to warrant mention.

Jeff Masters

Up In Smoke (Madermade)
Another wildfire this afternoon in Bridgeport, Tx... still burning!
Up In Smoke
Mandeville, Louisiana Lakefront during TS LEE (hurricanep)
Mandeville, Louisiana Lakefront during TS LEE
Lake Pontchartrain Lakefront (hurricanep)
TS Lee still affecting Louisiana
Lake Pontchartrain Lakefront
Tropical Storm Lee-Day 2 #2 (jennjeff1)
Tropical Storm Lee-Day 2 #2

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2612. Stormchaser121
7. syyskuuta 2011 klo 01:19 (GMT)
Lee was NOT the last one Texas gets. DO NOT WORRY. Most texas droughts end in Floods and rains. That is likely the case with this drought as well. We WILL get another storm. Im not just saying this to be positive, i know we will get another one.
Member Since: 2.09.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1140
2611. Tazmanian
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 18:53 (GMT)
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061850
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011090618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 230N, 950W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090606, , BEST, 0, 215N, 943W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 940W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
2610. DFWjc
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 15:19 (GMT)
88% of the state now in extreme drought

Member Since: 19.07.2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
2609. SPLbeater
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:17 (GMT)
why is the GOM convection being noticed?
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
2608. Jedkins01
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 14:05 (GMT)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Lee has produced lots of flooding and damage in one form or another all over the Gulf/SE (and still more in Florida to go from the the combined front/trailing edge) so I am hoping that 95L will stay out to sea. Lee's remnants soaked Northern Florida for the past several days and plenty of fallen and snapped trees and limbs (some on homes and cars) and tornadoes when the front came through yesterday. Mother Nature will do what she wants but we don't need any more canes for the US this year (with the exception of a grave need for some tropical moisture for Texas). So, I am basically hoping for one more good soaking TS to move West into Texas but nothing more.



Unfortunately, I don't think Texas will be helped as much as some think if a T.S. does finally move in. Remember that tropical cyclones run on exceptionally high moisture content and any disruption of it can cause collapse of convection, even if the "dry air entrainment" is deep moisture in most cases.

Why is that significant? Well Texas is so dry, I have a feeling that heavy rain wouldn't get much farther inland beyond the immediate coast before evaporating due to extreme dry air and dust over the parched state. What Texas needs is a weather pattern change first before a tropical storm, I don't think a tropical storm would help as much as some think because my reasons listed. If Texas were to go through a long term pattern change to wetter weather, than a tropical storm could come in and produce more widespread heavy totals over a large area and farther inland.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
2607. Jedkins01
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:59 (GMT)
Quoting beell:
Developing dry slot (maybe) over western NC/SC should aid destabilization/buoyancy later today.



It doesn't necessarily have to be a dry slot, it could just be clearing of high clouds. We have many days in Florida with very high moisture and very little clouds till storms start popping. Whereas air can often be quite dry on overcast with high level clouds.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
2606. aspectre
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:40 (GMT)
H.Katia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 5Sept_12pmGMT and ending 6Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneKatia's path
and the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Katia's travel-speed was 10mph(16.1k/h) on a heading of 305.0degrees(NW)
H.Katia was headed toward passage over MyrtleBeach,SouthCarolina ~3days19hours from now

Copy&paste 24.2n62.6w-24.8n63.4w, 24.8n63.4w-25.6n64.0w, 25.6n64.0w-26.2n64.8w, 26.2n64.8w-26.7n65.6w, bda, 26.2n64.8w-33.734n78.826w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 6Sept_6amGMT)
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2605. midgulfmom
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:35 (GMT)
Texans are in my prayers. Those fires are Kicka@@ and if I had to chose a disaster, fires would be at the bottom of my list. Really sorry what some are going through.
Member Since: 9.07.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
2604. weathermanwannabe
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:33 (GMT)
Good Morning. Lee has produced lots of flooding and damage in one form or another all over the Gulf/SE (and still more in Florida to go from the the combined front/trailing edge) so I am hoping that 95L will stay out to sea. Lee's remnants soaked Northern Florida for the past several days and plenty of fallen and snapped trees and limbs (some on homes and cars) and tornadoes when the front came through yesterday. Mother Nature will do what she wants but we don't need any more canes for the US this year (with the exception of a grave need for some tropical moisture for Texas). So, I am basically hoping for one more good soaking TS to move West into Texas but nothing more.
Member Since: 8.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8311
2603. tatoprweather
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:32 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 29.04.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
2602. scottiesaunt
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:31 (GMT)
NEW BLOG, early today
Member Since: 7.06.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 91
2601. Orcasystems
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:27 (GMT)
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
2600. midgulfmom
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:24 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....
Morning All ... Thank you Pottery: Great Start to my Day! Love it! :)
Member Since: 9.07.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
2599. beell
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Developing dry slot (maybe) over western NC/SC should aid destabilization/buoyancy later today.

Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15358
2598. HurricaneDevo
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:23 (GMT)
Quoting stillwaiting:
img src="IMG 20110906 090920">,looking out into the gom to the south here in siesta key this morning
Member Since: 19.04.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
2597. Matt74
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:22 (GMT)
Quoting hydrus:
Thats 20%?
Member Since: 21.06.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 329
2596. bohonkweatherman
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:21 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
Do we have any morning updates on the Texas fires?
Good Morning all from very smokey South Central Texas, my low was 61, humidity 35 percent, winds around 10 mph.

The fire at Cedar Creek is 10 percent contained. The Bastrop fire is 0 percent contained.

The Steiner Ranch fire: preliminary cause of the Steiner Ranch fire is two power lines rubbing together, according to a rep with the Capital Area Fire Association.

The containment on this fire and other fires west of Austin is doing pretty good and above 50 percent.

I have friends in Leander, Bastrop, Smithville, Cedar Park, Cedar Creek. They either lost their homes or had to evacuate. The friend in Leander has had 3 fires in his area this year.

Chains dragging, power lines, cars driving over dead grass, cigarettes, bar b qs, arson there have been several reasons for these fires but it does not take much to start a fire whenever everything is dead.

The City of Bastrop bless their hearts, around 6,000 people there including my daughter, they are beyond suffering. My daughter is with me now not knowing if she has a home or when she will be able to return to a home or to work in Bastrop.

Thank You Bloggers for all your prayers and well wishes, have a great day.
Member Since: 5.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
2595. bassis
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:19 (GMT)
Quoting Chicklit:
KATIA


95L


It appears that Katia had some dry air for a snack and is sitting there in one place digesting.
Member Since: 8.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
2594. GeoffreyWPB
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:18 (GMT)
Member Since: 10.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
2593. Jedkins01
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:15 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:
Slight risk for Central FL... woot woot.



Yeah we are feeling Ex-Lees wrath, LOL.

We have had some pretty intense storms their morning though. I guess they figured to throw in a slight risk because we've had damage around here.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
2591. stillwaiting
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:13 (GMT)
img src="IMG 20110906 090920">,looking out into the gom to the south here in siesta key this morning
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2589. splash3392
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:11 (GMT)
Hey Chicklit thanks for the heads up I just logged on and saw your post! Good Morning Everyone, have a safe day.
Member Since: 24.01.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 641
2588. Chicklit
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:10 (GMT)
... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph over southeastern Lake County... Orange County... northwestern Osceola County... Seminole County... Volusia County...

* until 1000 am EDT.

At 902 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a ling of storms capable of producing strong wind gusts approaching the Interstate 4 area... moving quickly northeast at 30 mph.

The storms will move across areas including Daytona Beach... Sanford and along the Interstate 4 corridor through Metro Orlando and the attractions area through 10 am.

The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2908 8093 2907 8090 2892 8081 2879 8094
2879 8097 2876 8097 2818 8152 2826 8156
2826 8166 2834 8167 2835 8186 2838 8192
2927 8126 2927 8116 2940 8116 2943 8110
time... Mot... loc 1300z 222deg 27kt 2887 8141

L8R



Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2587. TexasHurricane
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Quoting Clearwater1:
I know nothing is set in stone, but Dr. Masters and others seemed pretty confident that anything that formed the BOC would head either ne or eastly. I wonder what changed so much to have the models forecasting west? Or at least the GFS


Was thinking I saw that to . West into Mexico. If it does do that I hope it get as close to TX as possible to give some rain. That would be great. Or better yet go into TX.
Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2586. hcubed
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:09 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:



I've washed my arms thoroughly and written my SSN on all my empty milk jugs.


What next?



Sounds like we're getting ready to go through a SCRC.

Shower Curtain Replacement Cycle.
Member Since: 18.05.2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
2585. islander101010
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:07 (GMT)
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
i hope anything out that far developed most likely will go out to sea need to watch the weaker areas see if they develop in the carib.
Member Since: 11.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4018
2583. Chicklit
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:06 (GMT)
KATIA


95L
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2581. StormHype
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:05 (GMT)
Quoting wjdow:


If I recall correctly, by what NHC said in it's earliest advisory the models vary depending on how far south the center of circulation forms.


Yes, I agree. Yesterday the models had the low forming just north of the Yucatan and moved it NE. Now some form it farther SW in the BoC and move it into Mexico before much development.
Member Since: 31.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189
2580. putintang3
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:05 (GMT)
HELP REPOSTING TO HELP OUT) Our friends in magnolia are in the direct path of the fire and had to let their 2 horses go (with their phone number on them) bc the fire was behind their house and we couldn't get to their house with the trailer. Please anyone, if you find a bay mare and a sorrel gelding, please call the number on the horses or 361-227-7735
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 309
2579. SLU
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:04 (GMT)
KATIA now 120mph



297

WHXX01 KWBC 061236

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1236 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA (AL122011) 20110906 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110906 1200 110907 0000 110907 1200 110908 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.7N 65.6W 27.8N 67.5W 28.9N 69.3W 30.2N 70.8W

BAMD 26.7N 65.6W 27.7N 66.8W 28.4N 68.1W 29.3N 69.2W

BAMM 26.7N 65.6W 27.8N 67.2W 28.6N 68.8W 29.7N 70.2W

LBAR 26.7N 65.6W 28.2N 67.1W 29.8N 68.9W 31.7N 70.5W

SHIP 105KTS 100KTS 97KTS 95KTS

DSHP 105KTS 100KTS 97KTS 95KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110908 1200 110909 1200 110910 1200 110911 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.1N 71.3W 36.7N 69.4W 38.9N 55.6W 42.4N 33.3W

BAMD 30.7N 69.8W 34.9N 67.9W 39.1N 54.6W 47.0N 30.4W

BAMM 31.3N 70.9W 36.1N 68.5W 40.6N 52.9W 49.4N 29.5W

LBAR 34.1N 71.6W 39.6N 69.6W 41.5N 55.6W .0N .0W

SHIP 88KTS 77KTS 69KTS 63KTS

DSHP 88KTS 77KTS 69KTS 63KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 65.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 64.0W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 24.2N LONM24 = 62.6W

WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 115KT

CENPRS = 954MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 280NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 105NM RD34NW = 135NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
2578. kmanislander
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:03 (GMT)
Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning

I was just about to post that. Quite a mess really but the closest thing to a center looks to be near 10 N and 35.5 W. Hopefully ASCAT will catch it and give us a better idea on the organization of 95L but for now it has a very broad low pressure that would probably not take too long to tighten up.
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
2576. Jedkins01
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 13:02 (GMT)
Quoting BobinTampa:


my nephew texted me and said 'hurricane?'. It definintely had the feel of a feeder band.


Yeah it sure did! Just had another round, gusted to 50 here again, its amazing to thin that tropical storm Lee moved inland and weakened a while ago but just its remnants merging with a cold front still has that tropical feel. The convection is still tropical in nature, worse than the colors appear on radar lol.
Member Since: 21.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6900
2575. stillwaiting
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:58 (GMT)
Quoting Jedkins01:


well lets hope soon is in terms of years not days or weeks, lol
mid sept thru end october we'll get atleast one tc landfaall in florida this yr imo,i terested in the possblity of a tc entering the gom from the nw carib in 9-10 days
Member Since: 5.10.2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
2574. Stats56
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:57 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:


Another HypOcane for sure. Need milk jugs and sharpies.


Guess I really started something with the sharpies ;)
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
2573. Chicklit
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:55 (GMT)


The new invest may already be too far north to do you any good Potts. But looking at it now, maybe that's for the best in the long run.
Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2572. stormpetrol
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:54 (GMT)
Member Since: 29.04.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
2571. wjdow
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Quoting Clearwater1:
I know nothing is set in stone, but Dr. Masters and others seemed pretty confident that anything that formed the BOC would head either ne or eastly. I wonder what changed so much to have the models forecasting west? Or at least the GFS


If I recall correctly, by what NHC said in it's earliest advisory the models vary depending on how far south the center of circulation forms.
Member Since: 21.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 155
2570. hotrods
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:53 (GMT)
Thanks, i guess will just have to wait and see what happens, how the weather patterns change etc.
Member Since: 22.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
2569. SLU
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:52 (GMT)
Quoting pottery:
BREAKING NEWS

A shower of rain fell here this morning early.
The grass is slightly damp underfoot.
Nothing was contained within the RainGuage.
Strange and Exotic Gyrations are being performed under the Calabash Tree in the Hope that the clouds which are currently mingling about out in the Atlantic will somehow come this way.

Please stay tuned for more Optimistic statements, as they come to hand.....


Been a rather dry wet season this year ....
Member Since: 13.07.2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
2568. Chicklit
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:52 (GMT)
Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... black box.


Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2567. beell
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:49 (GMT)
click for discussion

Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15358
2566. 7544
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:47 (GMT)
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.


too early to tell but some form somthing in front of 95l and brings it that way have to wait and see if we get a invest just ahead of 95l good morning all coffee time
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
2565. Clearwater1
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:45 (GMT)
Quoting hotrods:
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
I don't think so, but I know others do. I think it will follow the pattern, and in Katia's wake
Member Since: 26.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
2564. hotrods
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:44 (GMT)
Does anybody else besides me think that 95L just might have that little bit of chance to a make a run towards the southeast coast-----> Bahamas to Florida, i know models are going to go back and forth, but been pretty much inline so far.
Member Since: 22.10.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
2563. bluheelrtx
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Quoting presslord:
Do we have any morning updates on the Texas fires?
Waiting on the Texas Forest Service update this morning. I believe they come out at 8:00.
Member Since: 8.11.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 222
2562. hydrus
6. syyskuuta 2011 klo 12:42 (GMT)
Quoting bappit:

Use preview?
I dont know what preview is..All my black boxes show up normal here, and as black boxes for yall..I will work on it..
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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