Irene slightly weaker, but still very dangerous

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 25. elokuuta 2011 klo 20:59 (GMT)

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An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating Irene has found a slightly weaker storm. As of 4pm EDT, the strongest surface winds seen by the aircraft with their SFMR instrument were 91 mph in the storm's northeast eyewall. Highest winds measured at their flight level of 10,000 feet were 114 mph. Assuming the aircraft missed sampling the strongest winds of the hurricane, it's a good guess that Irene has fallen to Category 2 strength with 100 - 105 mph winds, even though the official advisory is higher. The aircraft noted that the eyewall was missing a large chunk on it southwest side, but the central pressure was about the same as early this morning, 950 mb. Satellite imagery from late this morning and early this afternoon showed a distinctly lopsided appearance to Irene's cloud pattern, with not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the southwest side. This was due to moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots due to upper-level winds out of the southwest. This shear was able to disrupt Irene's circulation while it was attempting to complete an eyewall replacement cycle, resulting in dry air getting wrapped into the core, which can be seen as a streak of darker clouds in this morning's MODIS satellite image (Figure 1.) satellite loops show that Irene is beginning to recover from this adversity, with a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms beginning to wrap around to the southwest side from the north. An upper-level wind analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS site shows that Irene's upper-level outflow is much more restricted than was the case 24 hours ago. An upper-level outflow channel that was open to the south is gone, and has been replaced by shearing winds from the west and southwest that are ripping into the hurricane. I think it is 30% likely that Irene will have trouble recovering from this setback, and will not reach the peak intensity of 120 mph winds it had earlier. However, it is more likely that the hurricane will be able to re-establish its upper-level outflow and overcome the shear, based on the latest satellite loops, plus forecasts from the various hurricane models such as the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF, which all show Irene at Category 3 strength as it approaches North Carolina on Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:50 am EDT Thursday August 25, when Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The eye of the storm was just off the coast of Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Note the rather squashed appearance of the hurricane, with less heavy thunderstorms on its southwest side. Upper level winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southwest were eating away at the clouds on this side, and you can see that this shear helped drive some dry air into the hurricane, which can be seen as a darker strip of cloud spiraling into the center from the south, around the east side, then into the center along the northwest side of the storm. Image credit: a href=http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/ NASA.

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In this morning's post, I highlighted the threat from storm surge flooding, but flash flooding and river flooding from Irene's torrential rains are also a huge threat. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 12" to 100-mile swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record. At Philadelphia, rainfall so far this August has been 13 inches, not far from the record for rainiest month of all-time, the 15.82" that fell in August 1867. This record will almost certainly be broken when Irene's rains arrive. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane's track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side. Right now, it does not appear that tornadoes will be a major concern, but there will probably be a few weak tornadoes. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to affect New England, spawned six tornadoes, most of them weak F-0 and F-1 twisters.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Tuesday August 30, as issued by NOAA/HPC.

Latest forecast for Irene
The latest set of model runs don't show any major changes to Irene's track or intensity. Irene will bring damaging winds, torrential rains, and an extremely dangerous storm surge to the coast, affecting a huge area of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Take this storm seriously! Expect widespread disruptions to electric power, transportation, and water systems. Be prepared for many days without power, as utility crews will be overwhelmed with the damage. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is a very dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, documenting the storm's impact on the Bahamas.

Jeff Masters

Irene Rainband from downtown Ft. Lauderdale (pho)
8/25/11 0910 local time.
Irene Rainband from downtown Ft. Lauderdale
HurricaneIreneIsOutThere! (trigirl)
Early at the beach to snap the waves from Hurricane Irene east of our coast, the wind was unreal with thunderclouds rolling in with lots of rain for the day.
HurricaneIreneIsOutThere!

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2341. leftlink
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 11:24 (GMT)
oops new blog
Member Since: 28.12.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
2340. dewfree
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 08:01 (GMT)
sorry that wasnt eye wall it was the furtherest extent of hurricane force winds on west side
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
2339. dewfree
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:57 (GMT)
bouy report west wall 54 mph with 74 gust
Member Since: 27.08.2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
2338. wildheron
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:27 (GMT)
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Better off with a vehicle power inverter $20-100.
I used to drive a semi-had a 2000 watt inverter hooked direct to the 4 batteries. plugged in laptop and it was fine-I'd be on 'puter while hubby was driving-ran for 3-4 yrs with no problem. don't know if that helps you any. everyone in the cone stay safe!
Member Since: 23.07.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
2337. ConnecticutWXGuy
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:18 (GMT)
At first glance it had looked like Irene had become much less organized over the past hour or so. Upon closer observation, there is significantly more cold cloud tops around the center than there has been in quite some time.... the cyclone looks ragged at the moment, but at the same time check out how much more cold cloud tops are around the center of circulation, even though the northern part of the circulation is somewhat void of the colder cloud tops.

Link

Also note some evidence of redeveloping outflow on the southern side in the last couple of frames.

I personally am not yet sure what to make of it, just pointing out some observations I have made
Member Since: 17.11.2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
2336. NJ2S
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:59 (GMT)
Quoting nigel20:

Night folks.


is that dry air temporary or will that help weaken irene?
Member Since: 2.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
2335. HurricaneHunterJoe
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:36 (GMT)
Quoting JP2010:
Based on New OZ HWRF, GFDL, GFS, ETA all models are 6-12 hrs faster and have shifted back east from 20-40 miles. I think a window near Cat 4 strength during the day on Friday then back down to cat 3 by Saturday 7:00 AM. Wave Height now 60 miles N-NE-E of eye now is 20-40ft wave height. Storm surge at Cape Hatteras current forecast 4-8 ft per local NWS as of 12:00 am. 8/26/11.
Based on the new model tracks the center the wave height likely late Friday into Saturday 30-50ft range. THE STORM SURGE THREAT FOR CAPE HATTERSAS AREA IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO 10-15ft. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MAJOR TO DEVASTING DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUISNESS BREACHING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND CUTTING NEW INLETS IN MULTPLY LOCATIONS. THE WORSE CASE IS THE ISLAND IS TOTAL DESTROYED!!
DOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMM
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2334. lopaka001
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:35 (GMT)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how do you know that 943 is that altitude.. is there a formula to figure it out


Yes there is using 29.92 for sea level on a standard day. You can just use this calc it is much easier.
Link
Member Since: 19.02.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 239
2333. mojofearless
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:31 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
If I lived in a hurricane zone,im def think a good investment is a propane fridge with extra bottles of propane,propane cooker,and one of them natural decomposing terlets.propane freezers? do they exist? and a generator. thats some $$$ but1 item or 2 a year,much more comfy in a horrible post hurricane situation. dont even have to run them til it's time stock up the fridge and freezer,generator runs everything else.........in a perfect world


Dunno about propane freezers, but those propane fridges are used in RV's, so that's probably the cheapest way to find one - watch craigslist, ebay, etc. Until then, you might look into a table top ice maker. Run one off a generator for about an hour a day, and you can make enough ice to keep your perishables good and your whiskey cold. Works great - I know. I think you can pick one of those up for couple hundred bucks.
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 172
2332. MoltenIce
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:29 (GMT)
What's up with Irene's eye? Shear? Atmosphere around her is relatively moist.
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
2331. Jtownboy
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:28 (GMT)
Quoting petewxwatcher:
I think waiting until 18 minutes after the hour to post the advisory text must be a record here!

sorry just woke and tried to help back to lurking
Member Since: 22.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
2330. njdevil
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:27 (GMT)
I still think this might be headed back to the LI/RI track from before last night. Doesn't mean a whole lot until it gets some E motion to it, though, it could still meet the current track by going in a straight line.

Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
2329. PrivateIdaho
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:25 (GMT)
Quoting bwat:
Figure out a way to get Irene off the NC coast, I'll buy you a keg! Later all, gotta get some more sleep. Heading to my fathers house on Albemarle Sound in the morning to help him board up his sound facing windows.


I can do some serious wishcasting for a keg of beer!..." The Bermuda high seems to be erroding so a recurve senario is not out of the question"....hows that?
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2328. petewxwatcher
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:25 (GMT)
I think waiting until 18 minutes after the hour to post the advisory text must be a record here!
Member Since: 24.03.2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392
2327. MoltenIce
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:24 (GMT)
Nanmadol showing how it's done. A perfect example of an intense tropical cyclone. Winds are at 240 km/h and pressure at 930 hPa. Nanmadol is actually stationary.
Member Since: 11.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 768
2326. WatchingThisOne
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:24 (GMT)
New blog.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
2325. FrankZapper
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:24 (GMT)
What are the likely effects of Irene on Wash DC? Any flooding from Potomac ?
Member Since: 26.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2324. victoriahurricane
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:24 (GMT)
Quoting bwat:
Figure out a way to get Irene off the NC coast, I'll buy you a keg! Later all, gotta get some more sleep. Heading to my fathers house on Albemarle Sound in the morning to help him board up his sound facing windows.


Yup, you need more sleep.
Member Since: 16.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
2323. LAlurker
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:22 (GMT)
New Blog
Member Since: 24.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
2322. atmosweather
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:21 (GMT)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how do you know that 943 is that altitude.. is there a formula to figure it out


There is...but you probably don't want to read this and try to interpret everything lol. This, however, is a useful conversion table for standard heights.

Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
2321. IFuSAYso
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:21 (GMT)
Quoting IFuSAYso:
Link


Vehicle does not need to run all the time, most power inverters have a low vehicle battery alarm.
Member Since: 8.03.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
2320. JP2010
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:20 (GMT)
Based on New OZ HWRF, GFDL, GFS, ETA all models are 6-12 hrs faster and have shifted back east from 20-40 miles. I think a window near Cat 4 strength during the day on Friday then back down to cat 3 by Saturday 7:00 AM. Wave Height now 60 miles N-NE-E of eye now is 20-40ft wave height. Storm surge at Cape Hatteras current forecast 4-8 ft per local NWS as of 12:00 am. 8/26/11.
Based on the new model tracks the center the wave height likely late Friday into Saturday 30-50ft range. THE STORM SURGE THREAT FOR CAPE HATTERSAS AREA IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO 10-15ft. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MAJOR TO DEVASTING DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUISNESS BREACHING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND CUTTING NEW INLETS IN MULTPLY LOCATIONS. THE WORSE CASE IS THE ISLAND IS TOTAL DESTROYED!!
Member Since: 1.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
2319. victoriahurricane
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:20 (GMT)
Quoting daddyjames:


I think the Freudian slip betrays why you have not "tried" it yet.


It actually is fried...
Member Since: 16.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
2318. IFuSAYso
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:19 (GMT)
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Better off with a vehicle power inverter $20-100.
Link
Member Since: 8.03.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
2317. nigel20
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:19 (GMT)

Night folks.
Member Since: 6.11.2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7477
2316. HurricaneHunterJoe
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:18 (GMT)
If I lived in a hurricane zone,im def think a good investment is a propane fridge with extra bottles of propane,propane cooker,and one of them natural decomposing terlets.propane freezers? do they exist? and a generator. thats some $$$ but1 item or 2 a year,much more comfy in a horrible post hurricane situation. dont even have to run them til it's time stock up the fridge and freezer,generator runs everything else.........in a perfect world
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2315. bwat
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:18 (GMT)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
turns out Alaska has 4 time zones....if levi lives wwwaaay East I'm right, otherwise I owe bwat a beer.
Figure out a way to get Irene off the NC coast, I'll buy you a keg! Later all, gotta get some more sleep. Heading to my fathers house on Albemarle Sound in the morning to help him board up his sound facing windows.
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338
2314. IFuSAYso
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:18 (GMT)
Quoting Seawall:


I've not fried mine with a generator, with a surge protector in between, but I've heard recommendations not to do so... so do at your own risk... :)


Better off with a vehicle power inverter $20-100.
Member Since: 8.03.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
2313. Jtownboy
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:18 (GMT)
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...IRENE MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN


Member Since: 22.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
2312. PrivateIdaho
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:16 (GMT)
turns out Alaska has 4 time zones....if levi lives wwwaaay East I'm right, otherwise I owe bwat a beer.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2311. trHUrrIXC5MMX
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:15 (GMT)
the eye is disappearing and really!?

Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
2310. WatchingThisOne
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:14 (GMT)
Quoting wdtcnewsonlinewx:
New steering current yet??


It's being updated now.
Member Since: 15.07.2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1259
2309. washingaway
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:14 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
2308. washingaway
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:12 (GMT)
Member Since: 14.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
2307. wdtcnewsonlinewx
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:12 (GMT)
New steering current yet??
Member Since: 1.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 82
2306. HurricaneHunterJoe
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:11 (GMT)
OK EVERYBODY!! UNIT CHECK!! NOW!!
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2305. cynvision
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:11 (GMT)
Quoting dracko19:
FYI: SST's are at 140kts to 160kts max potential in Irene's path until she gets beyond NC. Plenty of fuel for that fire.


Oh, okay. So a matter of a degree won't change things. But I thought it would stick closer to the warmest area. And I sort of thought that's why it zigged and zagged around the islands.
Member Since: 28.05.2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 42
2304. petewxwatcher
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:10 (GMT)
Link to 2 a.m. advisory for Irene.

0.4 N and no change in longitude in past 3 hours.
Member Since: 24.03.2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392
2303. bwat
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:09 (GMT)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Nice! yup, I only added an hour to Mt time. Alaska has several time zones I would guess (without googling...that's cheating) But I would bet that Levi will get no more than 6 hours of sleep.
I was just messin with ya anyhow. I have no clue myself what the difference is. Just woke up recently to check in....still a lil groggy.
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338
2302. njdevil
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:08 (GMT)
Still noting to the left. .6N 0W/E on this 3 hour.

This thing is going to be outside it's 8AM cone. lol.

some of the models had some cuts left in them, but I dunno if any of them do now.
Member Since: 9.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 145
2301. winter123
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:08 (GMT)
Either I'm blobcasting, or nhc is too busy with Irene to notice. The thing in the SE of this image looks like a subtropical low trying to form IMO. No surface low but definitely a mid level! Also, td10 looks like a weak and heavily sheared open wave to me. Not sure why it was named.

Edit: oops, tired, here's the image!
Member Since: 29.07.2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1762
2300. petewxwatcher
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:08 (GMT)
10 minutes after 2 a.m. and NO ONE has posted the advisory yet? C'mon people! :P
Member Since: 24.03.2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392
2299. PrivateIdaho
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:07 (GMT)
Quoting bwat:
Really dude? I'll take time zones for $1,000 Alex.


Nice! yup, I only added an hour to Mt time. Alaska has several time zones I would guess (without googling...that's cheating) But I would bet that Levi will get no more than 6 hours of sleep.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
2298. daddyjames
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:07 (GMT)
Quoting Seawall:


I've not fried mine with a generator, with a surge protector in between, but I've heard recommendations not to do so... so do at your own risk... :)


I think the Freudian slip betrays why you have not "tried" it yet.
Member Since: 25.06.2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
2297. washingaway
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:06 (GMT)



Member Since: 14.07.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
2296. HurricaneHunterJoe
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:06 (GMT)
I think she will be more in line with a Ike type windfield and surge,maybe a bit less,depending on what she does the next 24hrs.
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2295. Seawall
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:05 (GMT)
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Surge protector definitely wouldn't do it ... you would need a good battery UPS with power conditioning ... if that would work :) ... I guess the question is really can you run a good UPS off a generator?


I have a laptop now; not sure how that would work with charging the battery, but as long as you don't fry the battery charger... LOL I guess it would work. I wouldn't plug my lappy directly into the generator cord though.... unless I was desperate..... LOL
Member Since: 8.09.2001 Posts: 1 Comments: 401
2294. trHUrrIXC5MMX
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:05 (GMT)
Quoting Chrisnif:
Just as a frame of reference, 943 mbar is about the same as being 2200 feet above mean sea level. That's kinda interesting if you think about it that way.


how do you know that 943 is that altitude.. is there a formula to figure it out
Member Since: 23.04.2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
2293. bwat
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:05 (GMT)
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Can you run a computer off a generator if you have a good UPS unit between them?
Yes you can, but around here if the power goes out, our local phone grid switched to emergency back-up power. I will use the computer but won't do online as I have DSL through the phoneline. Internet might would work, but I don't use it once the power goes out. I don't want to put a drain on the system. People have to use those phonelines for emergency situations. Be a little selfish of me to run the phone system power down blogging and looking at satellite loops.
Member Since: 18.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 338
2292. petewxwatcher
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:04 (GMT)
Quoting Chrisnif:
Just as a frame of reference, 943 mbar is about the same as being 2200 feet above mean sea level. That's kinda interesting if you think about it that way.


There's a book called Eyewall that came out this year about a monster Cat 5 making landfall. The pressure is described as equaling 4000 above sea level. At 300 K, or 27 C or 81 F, that equals 881 mb, a new record low for the Atlantic.

It's a good book too.
Member Since: 24.03.2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 392
2291. PrivateIdaho
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 06:04 (GMT)
Quoting Seawall:


LOL, I'm a woman, I guess you can ask me about my unit... too funny.


I'm married so i will have to pass.
Member Since: 29.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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