Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 25. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:55 (GMT)

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Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


Figure 1. The scene in Nassau in the Bahamas at daybreak today. Image credit: Wunderblogger Mike Theiss.

Irene a Category 3 over the Bahamas, headed northwest
Hurricane Irene tore through the Bahama Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding to Crooked Island, Long Island, Rum Cay, and Cat Island, which all took a terrific pounding. Eleuthera and Abaco Island will receive the full force of Irene's eyewall today, but the eyewall will miss capital of Nassau. Winds there were sustained at 41 mph, gusting to 66 mph so far this morning, and I expect these winds will rise to 50 - 55 mph later today. Wunderblogger MIke Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 55 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm. Irene is visible on Miami long-range radar, and the outer bands of the hurricane are bringing rain to Southeast Florida this morning.

Irene is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses, and a new outer eyewall forms from a spiral band. During this process, the hurricane may weaken slightly, and it may take the rest of today for a new eyewall to fully form. Satellite imagery shows a lopsided pattern to Irene, with less cloud cover on the storm's southwest side. This is due to upper level winds from the southwest creating about 10 - 20 knots of wind shear along the storm's southwest side. We can hope that the shear will be strong enough to inject some dry air into the core of Irene and significantly weaken it today, but I put the odds of that happening at only 10%. The most likely scenario is that Irene will complete its eyewall replacement cycle later today or on Friday, then begin intensifying again. Wind shear is expected to stay moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next three days, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C, and Irene has an upper-level high pressure system on top of it, to aid upper-level outflow. None of our intensity forecast models show Irene growing to Category 4 strength, though the last 4 runs of the ECMWF global model--our best model for forecasting track--have intensified Irene to a Category 4 hurricane with a 912 - 920 mb pressure as it crosses over Eastern North Carolina.

Track forecast for Irene
The models have edged their tracks westwards in the last cycle of runs, and there are no longer any models suggesting that Irene will miss hitting the U.S. The threat to eastern North Carolina has increased, with several of our top models now suggesting a landfall slightly west of the Outer Banks is likely, near Morehead City. After making landfall on the North Carolina coast Saturday afternoon or evening, Irene is likely to continue almost due north, bringing hurricane conditions to the entire mid-Atlantic coast, from North Carolina to Long Island, New York. This makes for a difficult forecast, since a slight change in Irene's track will make a huge difference in where hurricane conditions will be felt. If Irene stays inland over eastern North Carolina, like the ECMWF and GFDL models are predicting, this will knock down the storm's strength enough so that it may no longer be a hurricane once it reaches New Jersey. On the other hand, if Irene grazes the Outer Banks and continues northwards into New Jersey, like the GFS model is predicting, this could easily be a Category 2 hurricane for New Jersey and Category 1 hurricane for New York City. A more easterly track into Long Island would likely mean a Category 2 landfall there.

Category 2 landfalls may not sound that significant, since Hurricane Bob of 1991 made landfall over Rhode Island as a Category 2, and did only $1.5 billion in damage (1991 dollars), killing 17. But Irene is a far larger and more dangerous storm than Bob. The latest wind analysis from NOAA/HRD puts Irene's storm surge danger at 4.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, equivalent to a borderline Category 3 or 4 hurricane's storm surge. Bob had a much lower surge potential, due to its smaller size, and the fact it was moving at 32 mph when it hit land. Irene will be moving much slower, near 18 mph, which will give it more time to pile up a big storm surge. The slower motion also means Irene's surge will last longer, and be more likely to be around during high tide. Sunday is a new moon, and tides will be at their highest levels of the month during Sunday night's high tide cycle. Tides at The Battery in New York City (Figure 3) will be a full foot higher than they were during the middle of August. Irene will expand in size as it heads north, and we should expect its storm surge to be one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than the winds would suggest.


Figure 2. Predicted tides for the south shore of New York City's Manhattan Island at The Battery for Sunday, August 28 and Monday, August 29. High tide is near 8pm EDT Sunday night. Tidal range between low and high tide is 6 feet on Sunday, the highest range so far this month. A storm surge of 10 feet would thus be 10 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW, the lowest tide of the year), but 16 feet over this mark if it came at high tide. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Irene's storm surge potentially extremely dangerous for the mid-Atlantic coast
Irene's large size, slow motion, arrival at high tide, and Category 3 strength at landfall in North Carolina will likely drive a storm surge of 8 - 10 feet into the heads of bays in Pamlico Sound, and 3 - 6 feet in Albemarle Sound. As the storm progresses northwards, potential storm surge heights grow due to the shape of the coast and depth of the ocean, though the storm will be weakening. If Irene is a Category 1 storm as it crosses into Virginia, it can send a storm surge of 4 - 8 feet into Chesapeake Bay and Norfolk. I give a 50% chance that the surge from Irene in those locations will exceed the record surges observed in 2003 during Hurricane Isabel. The region I am most concerned about, though, is the stretch of coast running from southern Maryland to Central New Jersey, including Delaware and the cities of Ocean City and Atlantic City. A Category 1 hurricane can bring a storm surge of 5 - 9 feet here. Irene's large size, slow movement, and arrival at the highest tide of the month could easily bring a surge one Category higher than the storm's winds might suggest, resulting in a Category 2 type inundation along the coast, near 10 - 15 feet. This portion of the coast has no hurricane experience, and loss of life could be heavy if evacuation orders are not heeded. I give a 30% chance that the storm surge from Irene will bring water depths in excess of 10 feet to the coasts of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.


Figure 3. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey coasts in a worst-case scenario. The image was generated using the primary computer model used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast storm surge--the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. The accuracy of the SLOSH model is advertised as plus or minus 20%. This "Maximum Water Depth" image shows the water depth at each grid cell of the SLOSH domain. Thus, if you are inland at an elevation of ten feet above mean sea level, and the combined storm surge and tide (the "storm tide") is fifteen feet at your location, the water depth image will show five feet of inundation. This Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) image was generated for high tide and is a composite of the maximum storm surge found for dozens of individual runs of different Category 2 storms with different tracks. Thus, no single storm will be able to cause the level of flooding depicted in this SLOSH storm surge image. Consult our Storm Surge Inundation Maps page for more storm surge images of the mid-Atlantic coast.


Figure 4. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge along the New Jersey coast in a worst-case scenario. Water depths could reach 6 - 8 feet above ground level in Ocean City and Atlantic City, and up to 16 feet along less populated sections of the coast.

Irene's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system
The floodwalls protecting Manhattan are only five feet above mean sea level. During the December 12, 1992 Nor'easter, powerful winds from the 990 mb storm drove an 8-foot storm surge into the Battery Park on the south end of Manhattan. The ocean poured over the city's seawall for several hours, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. Tropical Storm Floyd of 1999 generated a storm surge just over 3 feet at the Battery, but the surge came at low tide, and did not flood Manhattan. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. However, the highest storm surge on record in New York City occurred during the September 3, 1821 hurricane, the only hurricane ever to make a direct hit on the city. The water rose 13 feet in just one hour at the Battery, and flooded lower Manhattan as far north as Canal Street, an area that now has the nation's financial center. The total surge is unknown from this greatest New York City hurricane, which was probably a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.


Figure 5. The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City.


Figure 6. Flooded runways at New York's La Guardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easter breached the dikes guarding the airport. Sustained easterly winds of up to 62 mph hit the airport, pushing a large storm surge up Long Island Sound. The storm's central pressure bottomed out at 978 mb. Image credit: Queens Borough Public Library, Long Island Division.

The rest of New England
The entire New England coast is at high danger of receiving its highest storm surge in the past 50 years from Irene, though the exact locations of most danger remain unclear. If North Carolina takes a bullet for us and reduces Irene below hurricane strength before the storm reaches New England, the surge will probably not cause major destruction. But if Irene misses North Carolina and arrives along the New England coast as a hurricane, the storm surge is likely to cause significant damage. I urge everyone along the coast to familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk and be prepared to evacuate should an evacuation order be issued.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Nassau, and will be sending live updates through the day today.

Landstrike is an entertaining fictional account of a Category 4 hurricane hitting New York City.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Tropical Depression Ten in the far Eastern Atlantic will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Portlight mobilizes for Irene
The Bahamas have been hit hard by Irene, and unfortunately, it appears that the Northeast U.S. may have its share of hurricane victims before Irene finally dissipates. My favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org, is mobilizing to help, and is sending out their relief trailer and crew to the likely U.S. landfall point. Check out this blog to see what they're up to; donations are always needed.

Jeff Masters

Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding caused by Heavy Rains from Irene making the Rivers Rise and flooding nearby communities.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Irene in the Dominican Republic (DRHT)
Flooding of the River Nigua in the Dominican Republic and people that were forced to leave their homes behind.
Irene in the Dominican Republic
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
The sun peeking over the top of the eyewall
Hurricane Irene
Hurricane Irene (LRandyB)
By the fourth pass, Irene had a pretty well developed eyewall
Hurricane Irene

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1695. MACchem38
27. elokuuta 2011 klo 02:31 (GMT)

Question.

Hurricane Irene has been in the news-TV-newspapers-Internet for a couple of days now. Even though it might be a tropical storm when it hits NYC full preparations have been made. In the NYC/LI area subways and the LIRR will be shutting down at noon on Saturday--unprecedented . Weather Underground has stress the severity of this coming storm for days. Now I look at the Farmingdale NY Weather Underground hourly forecast for Sunday and there is rain and winds from 12-15 mph. It looks like a normal rainy day. ??????? What gives? Farmingdale is a few miles from where the center of the storm is to pass. It's far different from what I have been hearing from the media and Weather Underground blogs for the last few days.

Thanks
Member Since: 22.02.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1694. drg0dOwnCountry
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 05:28 (GMT)
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
1693. aspectre
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 03:27 (GMT)
Posted extremely late for the sake of continuity.

H.Irene's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 24August_6pmGMT and ending 25August_6pmGMT

The 4 shorter line-segments represent HurricaneIrene's path
and the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Irene's travel-speed was 13.5mph(21.7k/h) on a heading of 327.8degrees(NNW)
H.Irene was headed toward passage over SaintCatherinesSound,Georgia ~1day8hours from 25August_6pmGMT
(SVK is Savannah)

Copy&paste mhh, 22.7n74.3w-23.5n75.1w, 23.5n75.1w-24.1n75.9w, 24.1n75.9w-25.5n76.5w, 25.5n76.5w-26.5n77.2w, jax, 25.5n76.5w-31.73n81.131w, svn into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 25August_12pmGMT)
Member Since: 21.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1692. Charmeck
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 01:07 (GMT)
Is the blog frozen - or has everyone left for the night???
Member Since: 21.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
1691. originalLT
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 00:37 (GMT)
Can't believe the blog is so slow--almost 20 mins. between posts #1689 and #1690? strange.
Member Since: 31.01.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7065
1690. Swede38
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 00:29 (GMT)
Chapel Hill here! Hurricane where?-here! I had now idea! Have a nice day!

At least I am prepared.

I hope this Hurricane will teach a lot of people a serious lesson to be more aware in the future.

The awareness is behind the happenings.

A new ALERT system is needed to wake up people in the CONE!at an early stage.
Stay safe everyone and PLEASE stay away from the beaches, there is always tomorrow.


Cheers
Member Since: 5.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1689. RedrumATL
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 00:11 (GMT)
Quoting P451:
Wobble Squabbles persist with Irene?

Surprised...figured after those days of "It's going West South West now." before it reached Puerto Rico would have served as a learning experience.

Stick to the long imagery loops, folks, save yourself the headache.

She's gunna wobble around a lot due to the eyewall replacement and the rebuilding of the core. Throw in the islands also disrupting movement due to local wind currents and you've got yourself a headache.



True but jogs can add up "some." I've followed many storms that just shifted 50 miles in projection that made quite a difference in location.
Member Since: 17.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
1688. RedrumATL
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 00:07 (GMT)
Quoting 53rdWeatherRECON:


I meant. "Again, she will reach CAT4."

My bad.


I'm really thinking the same - not wanting to - but one of you experts is going to have to tell why it is not. Also, looks like NC will get a smack as I suspected. Very bad news up the coast - no doubt.
Member Since: 17.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 106
1687. AllStar17
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 23:33 (GMT)
Full graphics update later tonight
*Image is clickable for enlarged version (image can further be enlarged by clicking on it after opening link)
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1686. LAlurker
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:59 (GMT)
Quoting JeffM:


So much for Grandpa's thoughts of being in the clear 24hrs ago.

Has anyone heard from granpato4 today? I WU mailed him and heard back from him last night. Hope he's in Raleigh by now.
Member Since: 24.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
1685. AllStar17
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:51 (GMT)
Quoting Gorty:
Looks due north to me.


I agree. Hopefully it also turns NNE/NE in short order too!
Member Since: 29.06.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1684. Charmeck
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:44 (GMT)
It still looks like it is heading straight for Charleston!
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1683. Gorty
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:26 (GMT)
Looks due north to me.
Member Since: 8.11.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1682. wolftribe2009
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:20 (GMT)
Ok so I have a great concern right now that Irene could Rapidly Intensify into a strong CAT 4 Hurricane. The Satellite shows the eye becoming more defined which leads me to believe that we might be about to see a RI storm.
Member Since: 22.07.2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 752
1681. TexasHurricane
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:17 (GMT)
Quoting wxobsvps:
New steering layer, if anyone cares:



that looks to bring it more into South Carolina...
Member Since: 2.07.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1680. weatherrx2012
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:07 (GMT)
Quoting reedzone:


Eye is extremely small, but visible.. Irene is strengthening. She's not looking nearly as bad as she did this morning. I expect a Category 4 storm by the morning, perhaps later tonight.





Thanks!
Member Since: 25.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
1679. popartpete
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:00 (GMT)
Quoting victoriahurricane:


Ohiladelphia for example had some bad flooding recently as did many NE states. That on top of the highest tides of the month is just a 1, 2, 3 punch for them all.
Where's Ohiladelphia? No harm intended, but that typo made me laugh in an impossibly scary situation! Don't worry, I make typos all the time. This one was hilarious! Thanks, from a severely frightened barrier island on the Jersey Shore.
Member Since: 10.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 416
1678. KeyWestwx
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:55 (GMT)
wow. It looks like we are going to get some rain all the way West in Key West from one of Irene's outerbands. She is one big storm!!!
Member Since: 20.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 270
1677. beell
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:47 (GMT)
Selected dropsonde locations from Gonzo's current flight (Mission 22).

500mb heights and a guess at 500mb contours indicated. No surprises on track here if close to correct-north.

Similar posted interpretations yesterday and early this morning seemed to hold true, fwiw.

click to enlarge

Member Since: 11.09.2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15303
1676. tulsahurrcane
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:41 (GMT)
Quoting vince1:

So anyone who dislikes O'Commie's politics needs to head over to Fox News? Well, I guess that means the rest can goto MSNBC or Huffpuff and wax poetic about how wonderful the dictator is. I don't care if this ruffles feathers. The many people who didn't do their homework on the rabble rouser-in-chief shouldn't be the ones talking.



Wow! Is this OK on a weather blog Admin?
Member Since: 15.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 129
1675. VentureH
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:40 (GMT)
wxobsvps, pcola, et al: New blog, y'all.
Member Since: 27.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1674. Hester
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Hey guys...new blog update.
Member Since: 8.07.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1673. keisa90
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Looks almost NNE on the latest recon pass.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
1672. keisa90
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:38 (GMT)
Quoting vince1:

You're right, it's off-topic. I apologize for missing the main point of the original post to which I responded.



It's all good.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
1671. 4waters
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:37 (GMT)
Quoting pcola57:



I believe there has been a server crash..wx...don't know you but I've been here along time and this rarrely occurs.



happens sometimes when a big storm is about the hit the states.
Member Since: 31.08.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1670. Swede38
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:36 (GMT)
Sorry, Houston we got a problem. Just testing
Member Since: 5.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1669. vince1
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:36 (GMT)
Quoting keisa90:



Look Vince, I'm no fan of our President either, but we need to keep the talk to weather and not politics.

You're right, it's off-topic. I apologize for missing the main point of the original post to which I responded.
Member Since: 6.08.2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 209
1668. Swede38
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:34 (GMT)
Calling Houston!
Member Since: 5.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1667. pcola57
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting wxobsvps:
Well, I guess interest in Irene has subsided significantly. Should we discuss TD 10 instead?



I believe there has been a server crash..wx...don't know you but I've been here along time and this rarrely occurs.

Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6641
1663. keisa90
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:27 (GMT)
Quoting vince1:

Actually, it's Soetoro...or wait, Harrison Bounel? With someone who possesses an identity crisis like the usurper-hi-chief, it's hard to know what to call him.



Look Vince, I'm no fan of our President either, but we need to keep the talk to weather and not politics.
Member Since: 16.08.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 194
1661. pcola57
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:24 (GMT)
Quoting pcola57:
Do we have a server crash or what...been reading posts ...no new blog either Orca,Va..ya'll stilll there?


Pat?Atom?...anyone?
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6641
1658. pcola57
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:22 (GMT)
Do we have a server crash or what...been reading posts ...no new blog either Orca,Va..ya'll stilll there?
Member Since: 13.08.2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6641
1656. Gorty
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:19 (GMT)
Due north now?!? That's not good. Any confirmation on that? And if she is, what is the implications down the road?
Member Since: 8.11.2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1655. Orcasystems
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:17 (GMT)




Getting a little stronger... 948
Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1654. victoriahurricane
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:16 (GMT)
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way is "the west of Irene" only 0.5 degrees of longitude away from Florida's coast, then.

(Point at the part of Irene you are talking about with your finger.)


Edited my post, my mistake it's 5 degrees, meaning that webcam at Palm Beach is on the weak side of the storm 300+ miles from the center... no words, just no words.
Member Since: 16.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
1653. seafarer459
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:14 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 16.07.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1650. victoriahurricane
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:12 (GMT)
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. Some areas have had their wettest single month ever; Irene's coming to call at just the wrong time...


Ohiladelphia for example had some bad flooding recently as did many NE states. That on top of the highest tides of the month is just a 1, 2, 3 punch for them all.
Member Since: 16.10.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 544
1649. seafarer459
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:12 (GMT)
I predict, " The Darwin Awards" will be exceptionally busy this year. Natural selection, ya gotta love it.
Member Since: 16.07.2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 515
1648. 53rdWeatherRECON
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:09 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Thanks for providing this, I'm not lazy, lol.
Member Since: 5.08.2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
1647. Trouper415
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:08 (GMT)
NEW BLOG

NEW BLOG
Member Since: 22.09.2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
1646. nrtiwlnvragn
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:08 (GMT)
.
Member Since: 23.09.2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10462
1645. Neapolitan
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:08 (GMT)
The NWS weekend forecast for NYC. Won't see this very often:

Saturday...Partly sunny in the morning...then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid with highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night...Cloudy and very windy and humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph... Increasing to east 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph after midnight.

Sunday...Hurricane conditions possible. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday Night...Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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