Powerful Category 3 Irene enters the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 24. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:49 (GMT)

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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Irene stormed through the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, bringing hurricane-force winds, torrential rains, and storm surge flooding. On Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where half of the population of these islands live, winds reached a sustained 65 mph at a personal weather station at Pine Cay, and the pressure bottomed out at 989 mb. The eyewall of Irene missed the island, with the center of the storm passing about 60 miles to the southwest. The center of Irene passed about 60 miles to the northwest of Grand Inagua Island, and Category 1 hurricane conditions were probably experienced on that island. Damage in the Turks and Caicos is likely to be much less than the $50 - $200 million wrought by Category 4 Hurricane Ike of 2008, since Irene's eyewall missed populated islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Irene.

Monday, Irene hit Puerto Rico as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds, but reached hurricane strength as it emerged into the Atlantic northwest of the capital of San Juan. One drowning death is being reported from the island, and the storm dumped up to 20 inches of rain in some areas. About 11% of the island was still without power this morning, and numerous roads were closed due to flooding and landslides. Irene did an estimated $17 million in damage to agriculture and $2 million to ports in Puerto Rico. Satellite estimates suggest that Irene has brought only 1 - 2 inches of rain to Haiti. With Irene now pulling away from Hispaniola, Haiti can expect only another 1 - 2 inches from the hurricane, and appears to have dodged a major bullet. Heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches were common across the Dominican Republic, where moderate flooding but no deaths occurred.


Track forecast for Irene
Continuing dropsonde missions by the NOAA jet have helped to significantly narrow the uncertainty in the 1 - 3 day forecasts from the computer models. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. However, the models still diverge considerably on their 4 - 5 days forecasts, and we don't know if Irene will plow up the mid-Atlantic coast into New Jersey, as the GFDL model is predicting, hit New England between Long Island, NY and Massachusetts, as the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models are predicting, or miss the U.S. and hit Canada, as the NOGAPS model is predicting.

Intensity forecast for Irene
Latest data from the Hurricane Hunters shows that Irene has paused in its intensification cycle. A gap has opened in the eyewall, and the central pressure has remained constant at 956 - 957 mb over the past few hours. However, the hurricane is embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a Category 4 storm sometime in the next two days. Satellite loops show that Irene is well-organized, with excellent upper-level outflow, and impressive spiral banding.

Irene's impact on the Bahama Islands
Irene is making a direct hit on Crooked Island (population 350) in the Bahamas, and will continue west-northwest and hit Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700) late tonight. These unfortunate islands will bear the full brunt of Irene's 115+ mph winds and 8 - 13 foot storm surge, and suffer major damage that will take months to recover from. Major damage is also likely on Long Island (population 3000) and San Salvador Island (population 1000.) Shortly after midnight tonight, winds at the capital of Nassau, home to 70% of the population of the Bahamas, will rise above tropical storm force, and increase through the night. By late morning on Thursday, sustained winds will peak on Nassau at just below hurricane force, 60 - 70 mph. Nassau will miss the brunt of the storm, and I expect the airport should be able to re-open on Friday. Winds on Grand Bahama Island in Freeport will rise above tropical storm force late Thursday morning, and increase to a peak of 45 - 60 mph late Thursday afternoon. Grand Bahama will also miss the brunt of the storm, but Abaco Island to its east will likely experience Category 2 hurricane conditions Thursday afternoon. However, Abaco will probably miss the right front eyewall of Irene with the strongest winds and highest storm surge.


Figure 2. Wind distibution around Irene as of 1330 UTC (9:30am EDT) August 24, 2011. Irene was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds at the time. Hurricane force winds (yellow colors) extended over Crooked Island to the storm's northwest, and over Mayaguana Island to the east. Image credit: NOAA/AOML. Irene is a large storm, and its potential storm surge damage rated 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 6, with its wind damage potential rated at 2.5 on a scale of 0 to 6.

Irene's impact on the Southeast U.S.
Long-period ocean swells from Irene will reach the coast from Florida to North Carolina tonight, and continue to build as the storm approaches. The outermost rainbands of the hurricane will reach South Florida by Thursday morning, and spread over much of the eastern coastal portion of Florida during the day Thursday. If Irene follows the official NHC forecast through the Bahama Islands, the storm's expected radius of tropical storm-force winds of 130 - 170 miles will keep tropical storm conditions just off the east coast of Florida. Sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph can be expected along the coast of Florida during Irene's point of closest approach, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2" will be common along the coast. Georgia, which could use the rain, will get very little. It is unlikely any airport in Florida or Georgia will need to close for Irene.

Late Friday night or early Saturday morning, Irene's outer spiral bands will move over the southern coast of North Carolina and the northeastern portion of South Carolina, and tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph will arrive. Winds will steadily increase to hurricane force on the Outer Banks by Saturday night. The main damage from Irene in North Carolina will come from the storm's flooding rains of 4 - 12" that will fall in coastal areas. Fortunately, this region is under moderate to severe drought, so the damage will not be as severe as that experienced during Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Significant wind damage can be expected in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and considerable storm surge damage may occur along the shores of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. If Irene's eye misses making landfall in North Carolina, total damage from the storm should be less than $200 million, and could be considerably less than that.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures for August 24, 2011. Temperatures of 26°C (79°F) are typically needed for a hurricane to maintain its strength (black line). This boundary lies just off the southern coast of New Jersey this year, which is much farther north than usual.


Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Monday morning, August 29, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Irene's impact on the mid-Atlantic and New England
The impact of Irene on the mid-Atlantic and New England is highly uncertain at this point, because we don't know if the core of the storm will miss the coast or not. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along a 100-mile swath just to the west of where the center tracks, and the worst wind and storm surge damage will occur to the east. If the core of Irene stays offshore, the mid-Atlantic and New England may escape with a few hundred million dollars in damage from flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge. If Irene hits Long Island or Southeast Massachusetts, the storm has the potential to be a $10 billion disaster. Irene is one of those rare storms that has the potential to make landfall in New England as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. It is difficult for a major Category 3 or stronger hurricane crossing north of North Carolina to maintain that intensity, because wind shear rapidly increases and ocean temperatures plunge below the 26°C (79°F) level that can support a hurricane. We do expect wind shear to rapidly increase to a high 30 - 50 knots once Irene pushes north of Delaware, which should knock the storm down by at least 15 - 30 mph before it reaches New England. However, this year sea surface temperatures 1 - 3°F warmer than average extend along the East Coast from North Carolina to New York. Waters of at least 26°C extend all the way to Southern New Jersey, which will make it easier for Irene to maintain its strength much farther to the north than a hurricane usually can. During the month of July, ocean temperature off the mid-Atlantic coast (35°N - 40°N, 75°W - 70°W) averaged 2.6°F (1.45°C) above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures since record keeping began over a century ago (the record was 3.8°F above average, set in 2010.) These warm ocean temperatures will also make Irene a much wetter hurricane than is typical, since much more water vapor can evaporate into the air from record-warm ocean surfaces. The latest precipitation forecast from NOAA's Hydrological prediction center shows that Irene could dump over 8 inches of rain over coastal New England.


Figure 5. Soil moisture profiles from yesterday show that a region of very moist soils ranking in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) lie over northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

Tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains will move into Eastern Virginia Saturday afternoon, and push northwards to Delaware and coastal Maryland by late Saturday night. Tropical moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere will also stream well ahead of Irene into New England on Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing what is called a "Predecessor Rain Event" (PRE). The Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia airports will be right at the edge of the heavy rain and high wind area, and it currently appears they will not have to close for an extended period. The Philadelphia and New York City airports may not be as lucky, and it is possible they will suffer extended closures Sunday morning and afternoon. By late Sunday night, Irene's rains will move north of New York City, allowing the airports to re-open. The highest potential for damaging fresh-water flooding is in northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is near record high levels, and there is nowhere for the rain to go (Figure 5.) Heavy rains of 4 - 12" are likely across all of coastal New England if Irene passes within 100 miles of shore.

Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend the NHC wind probability product.

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave far out in the eastern Atlantic about 200 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest 90L, is showing signs of organization. NHC is giving this disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Several of our models do develop 90L into a tropical storm by early next week, but long-range models are showing that this system will not be a threat to any land areas over the next seven days, and will probably move too far north to ever be a threat to land.

Internet radio show on Irene at 4:30pm EDT today
I'll be discussing Hurricane Irene on a special edition of our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Wednesday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner, Tim Roche, and Angela Fritz will also be there. Listeners can email in or call in questions. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com.

Jeff Masters

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1490. 800733
26. elokuuta 2011 klo 18:02 (GMT)
what is everyons thoughts on TD10 for the coming weeks?
Member Since: 10.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
1489. hswiseman
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:11 (GMT)
Also posted yesterday. You are all welcome.
Quoting hswiseman:
The Canadian intensifies the polar vortex and has it building NW in a retrograde fashion. Their tropical solution is goofy, but they are very strong on polar/sub polar synoptic weather. The original GFDL track is not out of the question (Delaware\NJ\Adirondacks).
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1488. hswiseman
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 15:06 (GMT)
I posted this yesterday afternoon. No one commented or mentioned it. Aside from the fact that I was right, is anyone here engaging in real wx analysis and chat, or is the thread limited to storm rooting and eccentric wobble posts? Just wondering.



Quoting hswiseman:
The CMC 12Z shows a full-blown Fujiwara and the HWRF 06Z (98I)seems to detect the weakness but doesn't develop a cyclone, as the second low gets absorbed in the stalled front and behaves more like a short-wave. It is possible that Irene leaves enough subsidence in its wake to protect the secondary circulation and allow deepening. The deeper it gets, however, the more likely it detaches from Irene and follows the weakness of the offshore front. The CMC shows the polar vortex receding northwestward and intensifying, essentially retrograde, and this scenario is how you get a NYC landfall. I think this is plausible. The CMC Fujiwara solution drags the system east in total, offsetting the retrograde polar trough. I think this is implausible (20%). The CMC shows how the easterly trend finally ends, and leaves NYC-SNE totally open for business.
Member Since: 29.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 44
1487. trickypiece
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:04 (GMT)
Quoting ncbound:
Hi guys, reference to rain storms in Pinellas, Hillsborough, and points north and south yesterday. I work overnights and was asleep. The storms jarred me out of bed with the lightning and thunder. Had 2 inches of rain in very short period of time and a few wind gusts rattled the house and trees. I am in Brooksville (Istachatta) 1 block south of the Citrus County line and was part of what hit Floral City.


Crazy- I'm in Brooksville too
Member Since: 23.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1486. CaneGurl
25. elokuuta 2011 klo 00:17 (GMT)
Quoting Charmeck:
Where are all of the posts - has everyone just gone home???


This happened to me last night .... everyone just seemed to disappear. You'd think with a storm of this magnitude there would be a lot of people still talking. I'm still concerned as I live in Central Florida. Everyone is talking the party line that this storm is going to take a turn North around 78W. Well, what happens if it doesn't? Where would Irene end up? What is it that determines that turn?

I'm new to all of this and really would like answers to "newbie" questions.
Member Since: 13.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31
1485. Floodman
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 23:53 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Conditions here: Overcast with gusts to tropical storm force; Winds are steady at about 15mph. Gusts are getting more frequent.


Hang in there, Baha...it was great pleasure, by the way, finally getting to talk with you, however briefly, on the conference call last night
Member Since: 2.08.2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1484. Charmeck
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 23:50 (GMT)
Where are all of the posts - has everyone just gone home???
Member Since: 21.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 141
1483. weatherh98
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 23:00 (GMT)
Quoting weatherjr:
The blogg just stopped or it is very congested ....


Yea ik noones posted in an hour or so
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
1481. weatherh98
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:48 (GMT)
She's beautiful
Member Since: 17.06.2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
1480. ConnecticutWXGuy
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:28 (GMT)
New GFS track has been nudged slightly west as expected
Member Since: 17.11.2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
1479. portcharlotte
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:23 (GMT)
With Hurricane Warnings on Grand Bahama island and Trop. Storm Warning along the offshore waters you would think it prudent to at least have a Tropical Storm Watch for the Fl. East Coast. I am not sure why there is so much under-warning for the Fl. East Coast.

I worked for a number of years as a Met Tech at PBI (west palm beach) and there was one thing drilled into us as we had local zone forecast responsibility and that was always better to over-warn and safeguard against surprises. My MIC was Buck Christian and he was an old school guy with common sense. Today's young professors forget common sense sometimes ....
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1478. FTmyersZ
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:22 (GMT)
Sorry.... i was referring to TS watches inland... not off the coast.... seems reasonable to me.
Member Since: 26.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1477. portcharlotte
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:13 (GMT)
Well put!
It's so amazing..There seems to be an excuse for each time the storm misses a turn and there are those who coveniently forget their first proclamation..I do not live and die for this but if one stands back and watches you can laugh at all the troughs and what they were suppose to do. Another joke is the people who want the storm in the northern areas will never allow an honest analysis that the storm still has a more west component in track versus a north bias up this point.




Quoting FTmyersZ:
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
Member Since: 7.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
1476. jonelu
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:04 (GMT)
Quoting FTmyersZ:
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
so far local news is only posting Tropical Storm watch for the waters off the coast. Rip tides, heavy surf erosion. Squally weather off and on tomorrow.... They must feel faily confidant of the track because with such a large population on the southern coast...if there was any doubts they would be atleast issuing TS WATCH...
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
1475. RMCF
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:02 (GMT)
the New York hurricane show is on the History channel now.
Member Since: 18.01.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
1474. FTmyersZ
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 22:00 (GMT)
I've been a member for a long time... but rarely post. This set up is interesting to me.. and i'd love the illuminate to comment. It seems that the initial trough(today) did not induce the NNW turn that was expected. There is argument, but the general path is NW to WNW depending on what time frame you look at.

Given the CIMSS steering maps, and the 310 NHC( I know wobbly) motion, have the models missed it? my understanding was that the first trough was supposed to turn her NW then NNW, then the 2nd trough was to pull her further east..... ok

Based on the current CIMSS maps and situation, the first trough seems to have failed to do it's job. The second may well... but that is hours/days off, and we're running out of real estate.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding something... but should they not have at least warnings up on the florida east coast? I'm on the west coast.... so this is clearly not my storm, but it looks to me like it's(given it's size) gonna give some pain to the FL east coast.
Member Since: 26.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
1473. jonelu
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:54 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Are you in the Bahamas and if so what island?
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
1472. dipchip
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:45 (GMT)
Over the past 6 hours the storm has moved .7 degrees N and .8 degrees W. That calculates to course track 313 or 2 degrees short of NW.

the previous 6 hours the storm has moved .8 degrees N and 1 degree W. That calculates to course track 310 or 5 degrees short of NW.

The storms track has shifted further to the right each 6 hour period for the past 24 hours.
Member Since: 20.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
1471. snotly
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:39 (GMT)
Sort of shows up on the shortwave IR that a bigger eye wall is trying to form


Link
Member Since: 27.08.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 682
1470. BahaHurican
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:37 (GMT)
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
1469. Txwxchaser
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:32 (GMT)
Quoting Gorty:
HENRY M'S TWEET:

"I think the model trend tonight and tomorrow will be West with the track."

NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR US HERE IN NEW ENGLAND!

referring to Margusity on Accu?
Member Since: 13.09.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 307
1468. cutgr
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:22 (GMT)
dont know what it is about SC..but im glad this is where i live..seems like we have a blocker here every time knocking storms away from us.i hope this one spares everyone.
Member Since: 21.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1467. Orcasystems
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:21 (GMT)
3 new HH in the air.. two into the storm... 1 sampling



Member Since: 1.10.2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1463. atmosweather
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:13 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?


Almost over the outer banks.
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1462. bahamacast
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:13 (GMT)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Rain is down again in SWern New Providence.
We have about 2" per hr here.
Member Since: 4.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
1461. DontAnnoyMe
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:12 (GMT)
Quoting ncstorm:
umm..the track shifted west..more of NC in the cone..


Not west, just north - in the 3 day cone.
Member Since: 21.09.2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
1460. aasmith26
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:12 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?





5pm.
Member Since: 30.06.2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 226
1459. BahaHurican
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:11 (GMT)
Shortly after 5 p.m. this afternoon, the outer bands of Irene arrived at New Providence. We got this message from the sudden uptick in wind gusts and a brief deluge of tropical rain.

Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
1458. SPLbeater
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:11 (GMT)
How far west did the cone shift? is the center of the cone over Cape Hatteras again?
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1456. ncstorm
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:10 (GMT)
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is from hurricane IKE from 2008


note that this storm and IKE is this about the same

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.


ok may be not the same but geting closer





this is from Hurricane IRENE



IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS


so now the center has gone from 40 to 60 miles since this morning..if this gets to a Cat 4, we may be looking at a center with a 100 mile radius
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
1455. ncstorm
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:08 (GMT)
umm..the track shifted west..more of NC in the cone..
Member Since: 19.08.2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13451
1454. atmosweather
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:07 (GMT)
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Pinhole Eye alert!!



It's not a pinhole eye, its a cloud-obscured eye created by overshooting cloud tops in the inner western eyewall and an impending eyewall replacement cycle that has been on the verge of beginning since this morning.
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1453. scCane
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:07 (GMT)
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Bermuda High is beginning to weaken and move back to the east again.

15UTC:



18UTC:

Wrong steering layer here's the layer which Irene is in.

Member Since: 9.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
1452. BahaHurican
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Rain is down again in SWern New Providence.
Member Since: 25.10.2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20702
1451. FLWaterFront
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:06 (GMT)
Quoting TropicalXprt:


I would have to see some major turn north for it NOT to hit Florida.
Yep. Never mind all of the multiple-million dollar computer model forecasting systems. Never mind the expertise of literally hundreds of meteorologists, most of them tropical WX specialists. Never mind the NOAA "Kermit" plane. That plane alone cost about $500 million but clearly it was a total waste of money. And the Air Force Reserve's Hurricane Hunter fleet? Blech!

Forget about all of that. All you need to do is look at your screen, watch the eye moving WNW and.. bada boom, bada bing! It's Florida for sure!
Member Since: 15.10.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 713
1450. atmosweather
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:05 (GMT)
Quoting SPLbeater:
No change with the 5 PM advisory, not even pressure....interesting


Because she hasn't intensified or weakened and even if she has there aren't any HH planes or significant surface obs to confirm it.
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
1449. Tazmanian
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:05 (GMT)
this is from hurricane IKE from 2008


note that this storm and IKE is this about the same

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.


ok may be not the same but geting closer





this is from Hurricane IRENE



IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 60 MPH...95 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT GREAT EXUMA IN
THE BAHAMAS
Member Since: 21.05.2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
1448. SPLbeater
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:03 (GMT)
No change with the 5 PM advisory, not even pressure....interesting
Member Since: 4.08.2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
1447. jonelu
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:02 (GMT)
Quoting tinkahbell:


Didn't Eleuthra get fairly torn up a few years ago? I think with Frances?
Frances was in 2004. They got hit pretty hard....but that was quite awhile ago..
Member Since: 31.10.2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
1446. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:02 (GMT)
The storm has gotten bigger... the TS wind field has expanded to 230 miles now. Hmmm...

Also, it appears as if the motion will cause it to miss the NHC projected location for 8pm, it would have to go 0.3N and 0.1W, or practically NNW to make that one happen, e.g. it will be NW or WNW of that point by about 20 miles or so, based on RGB loop.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
1445. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:02 (GMT)
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (off)
MARK
24.00n/75.00w forecast point





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1444. TropicalAnalystwx13
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:02 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 6.07.2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
1443. oceanblues32
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Quoting charlottefl:


Wrong steering layer, use this:



do those steering currents look like it is squeezing Irene a little closer to Florida?
Member Since: 8.11.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 207
1442. YouCaneDoIt
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Member Since: 24.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1441. hurricanejunky
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Pinhole Eye alert!!

Member Since: 28.08.2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1440. TruthCommish
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:01 (GMT)
Quoting Gorty:
TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... JUST READ IT PEOPLE.


Can't hear you.
Member Since: 4.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 158

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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