Hurricane Irene slides toward Bahamas; Strong earthquake rattles eastern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 23. elokuuta 2011 klo 21:57 (GMT)

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Hurricane Irene is a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale as of 5pm EDT, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb. Irene is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph, and continues to impact Hispaniola. Satellite imagery shows a strong rain band continuing to linger over the eastern Dominican Republic on the southeast side of Irene, but wind speeds appear to have decreased substantially in the country since this morning. Winds are gusting to around 50 mph in the Turks and Caicos Islands this afternoon. Wind shear is currently around 10-20 knots in the vicinity, which could delay intensification over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds and thunderstorm activity remain on the northwest side, and the eye that was visible on satellite earlier today has become obscured by new thunderstorm activity near the center of the hurricane. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission found a minimum central pressure of 978 mb and a large wind field. In their 2pm EDT fix, the National Hurricane Center estimated that tropical storm-force winds extended 180 nautical miles from the center in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane. A NOAA Gulfstream plane (Gonzo) is currently flying Irene and providing dropsonde data, something that was critical in gaining model consensus yesterday. A NOAA P-3 (Kermit) is also on its way to the hurricane to provide dropsonde data, as well.


Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Hurricane Irene at 4:45pm EDT. Image credit: NOAA.

Track forecast for Hurricane Irene
Models are in better agreement on the track forecast for Irene today, although the GFDL and HWRF continue to be the western outliers. Both of these models are forecasting Irene to make landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina on an almost due north track. The rest of the global models continue to slide every so slightly east in their forecast track, with some not making landfall until the hurricane is as far north as Long Island. This afternoon, the ECMWF, which has been performing well this season, forecasts Irene to brush the Outer Banks before sliding up the east coast toward New York. The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center is similar this afternoon. They're expecting Irene to take a more central track through the Bahamas over the next 48 hours and make contact with the Outer Banks on Saturday afternoon, with a second landfall in New Jersey on Sunday afternoon. Again, it's critical to note that the errors in the track forecast 4 and 5 days out are quite large, and also that the consensus in the models over the past couple of days has been to nudge the track eastward, which can be seen in this track graphic archive.

Intensity forecast for Hurricane Irene
Despite the slight weakening that happened today, Irene is still expected to reach major hurricane status (category 3+) in the next 36 hours as it moves away from the Greater Antilles and into warm "open" water. The models tend to agree on a maximum intensity of category 3, however, the GFDL is the upper outlier, and is suggesting a category 4 on Friday. The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a wind speed increase to 125 mph (category 3) by Thursday. Irene will surely be a very intense hurricane by the time it nears the Mid-Atlantic.

Magnitude 5.8 earthquake rattles eastern U.S.

A relatively large and shallow earthquake struck the Mid-Atlantic just before 2pm EDT this afternoon, and shaking was felt up and down the east coast and as far west as Ohio. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter was located 5 miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia, and was 3.7 miles deep—a very shallow earthquake. Buildings were evacuated all over the Mid-Atlantic, including the Pentagon, the White House, and NCEP, but have since been reopened. The National Cathedral in Washington D.C. was apparently significantly damaged in the earthquake. National Mall monuments and memorials have closed for the afternoon. Light aftershocks have been reported by people in the region, and the USGS has reported at least one aftershock (a 2.8 in magnitude).


Figure 2. "Did you feel it?" map from the USGS. Shaking reports from today's earthquake can be submitted to the USGS here.

This earthquake appears to be the strongest to occur in Virginia since May 31, 1897, when a magnitude 6 (approximately) struck Giles County. Reportedly, shaking was felt from Georgia to Pennsylvania and west to Indiana and Kentucky, which is an area that covers approximately 725,000 square miles. It's likely that this quake will have a similar extent when all the reports come in.

Angela

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2901. Patrap
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 14:00 (GMT)
Owwww, we want da Funk, gotta have dat Funk..



Member Since: 3.07.2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
2900. JBirdFireMedic
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 13:05 (GMT)
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: 10.08.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 247
2899. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 12:20 (GMT)
09L/MH/I/C3
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
22.90n/73.13w





ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
Member Since: 15.07.2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52340
2898. interstatelover7165
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 12:10 (GMT)
000
WTNT34 KNHC 241157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE
CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF ACKLINS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORTING STATION AT PINE CAY IN THE
CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 65 MPH....105 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
IRENE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
Member Since: 18.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
2897. interstatelover7165
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 12:08 (GMT)
...IRENE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE....EYE HEADED FOR THE CROOKED AND ACKLINS ISLANDS...
8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 24
Location: 21.9°N 73.3°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Member Since: 18.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
2895. lizintheville
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 10:25 (GMT)
for some reason I am not able to figure out why if this hurricane is moving WNW they expected to turn North
Member Since: 2.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
2894. ConnecticutWXGuy
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 09:23 (GMT)
Quoting odinslightning:
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol


you can always count on the fictioncasters to be the first to call out people by name and insult them. There is very little to support what you say... and you say no trough has developed? Then tell me what exactly is moving towards the east coast with a frontal boundary, progged to cause isolated to scattered severe weather across New England and the Mid Atlantic on Thursday? A phantom is causing this? The water vapor imagery clearly shows a trough moving in. The northeast and north turn is quite likely. However, it pains me to admit, there is still an outside chance that something major could change and you could go from wishcaster to luckcaster. Anyway I will not be responding to any more of your fairly uneducated criticism, I am not into the whole bickering back and fourth game. Troll again, if you must.

Member Since: 17.11.2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 527
2893. FrankZapper
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 08:50 (GMT)
The East Coast will take quite a beating from Hatteras Northward. And The Carolin's are not out of the woods yet . Irene will get it's name retired when all is said and done.
Member Since: 26.05.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
2892. Kowaliga
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 08:29 (GMT)
OK kids, the Ambien just kicked in so this is the last one I'll be able to put together till later.

Don't forget the meeting tonight on Cat Isl. - you may
want to bring an umbrella......and a SQUEEGEE! ;-)

Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
2891. odinslightning
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 08:04 (GMT)
ty for the people in here right now that i can count on 1 hand that know what is going on in here. for all other lurkers i wish you would a) be quiet and b) open your ears and eyes and learn. all you lurkers are doing is causing confusion and one of these days someone is gonna come in here, count on what a wishcaster says, and that person is gonna get hurt....


know this much wishcasters, god in my opinion will hold u accountable for people getting hurt based on your bogus wishes and bullcrap predictions. i would cut your losses while u can, that is, if people haven't already been hurt by your bullcrap dart throwing with a blindfold on.


i love this blog, there are some real geniuses. i just hope the wishcasters go away and troll some other blog.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 475
2890. 7544
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:57 (GMT)
hmmmmmmmmmLink
Member Since: 6.05.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
2889. atmosweather
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:50 (GMT)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow


2011AUG24 071500 6.5 935.8/ +0.9 /127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT


Yeah that's kind of ridiculous lol. But there's no doubt she is more intense now than she was when the last RECON plane left. Eye has shrank considerably, CDO is absolutely symmetrical and her circulation is ventilating as well as it possibly could.
Member Since: 24.09.2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
2888. DerOrkanWachter
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:50 (GMT)
My father just got up and said recently that he has a feeling that this is going to go west and that the models are over emphasizing the trough and underemphasizing the trough. I think we will see a westward track as well and I think Georgia and South Carolina better get ready because its going to be much closer than they have been predicting earlier. I can feel it in the air maybe its just because I am delirious but it certainly feels like this hurricane may be heading to the Georgia or South Carolina coast.
Member Since: 21.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
2887. yonzabam
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:49 (GMT)
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Where is the night crew at? You would never know that there is a borderline Major Hurricane out there. The blog has gotten eerily slow.


It's not going to Florida, so the schoolkids there have lost interest.
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2436
2886. NCCANE
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:49 (GMT)
Wilmington, NC real time

B/P 1017 mb
Member Since: 26.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
2885. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:49 (GMT)
Quoting yonzabam:


There's 80,000 flamingos in Grand Inagua. Poor birds. Some of them might end up in NYC.


I had never seen one in nature until shortly after I think it was either Frances or Jeanne, it ended up displaced here in central Florida. Not that it minded, I would think... as there is PLENTY of shrimp to eat around here in the Indian River Lagoon system. lol
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2884. Titoxd
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:48 (GMT)
NEW BLOG
Member Since: 28.06.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 243
2883. emguy
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:48 (GMT)
Wator Vapor loop of the US. I leave this up to the interpretation of you, the readers... I think it speaks for itself...Mean time, whatever it does, the South Carolina Cutoff Low has become a legit Cutoff Low. Looks like a tight strong one too...It's a big deal one way or the other...
Member Since: 21.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 610
2882. HimacaneBrees
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:47 (GMT)
Where is the night crew at? You would never know that there is a borderline Major Hurricane out there. The blog has gotten eerily slow.
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2881. HimacaneBrees
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:45 (GMT)
Quoting odinslightning:



exactly. when i fell asleep at 9:00 pm c.s.t. i saw the Bermuda High ridge running an offensive line blocking scheme that would make anyone in the SEC jealous....I remember saying to myself.....well, maybe they see a trough appearing overnight because it's not there now.....and now 6 hrs later no trough.


Anomaly ##z runs yesterday. Expect model runs today to eliminate the error.


I love the SEC reference lol.. Geaux Tigahs!!!!!!!
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2880. odinslightning
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:43 (GMT)
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.



exactly. when i fell asleep at 9:00 pm c.s.t. i saw the Bermuda High ridge running an offensive line blocking scheme that would make anyone in the SEC jealous....I remember saying to myself.....well, maybe they see a trough appearing overnight because it's not there now.....and now 6 hrs later no trough.


Anomaly ##z runs yesterday. Expect model runs today to eliminate the error.
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 475
2879. alvarig1263
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:43 (GMT)
Quoting DerOrkanWachter:



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.


UKMET is running now and feeling the effects of the high with a more westerly track. It's all coming together. I've been talking about this shift westward for the past 18 hours and I think it's finally happening. Will have to wait and see how the other models react.
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
2878. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:43 (GMT)
** WTNT80 EGRR 240600 ***

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2011

HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 71.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.08.2011 20.8N 71.9W INTENSE
12UTC 24.08.2011 22.0N 73.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2011 23.0N 75.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2011 24.5N 77.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2011 26.3N 77.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2011 28.5N 78.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.08.2011 30.5N 78.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2011 32.2N 77.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2011 33.8N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.08.2011 35.5N 75.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.08.2011 37.6N 73.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2011 39.9N 71.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2011 43.0N 68.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
2877. Stormchaser2007
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:43 (GMT)
Wow


2011AUG24 071500 6.5 935.8/ +0.9 /127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT
Member Since: 9.06.2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
2876. DerOrkanWachter
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:40 (GMT)
Quoting odinslightning:
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world a) isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol



I sort of agree with you but I think its too soon to jump to a conclusion with this. I am going to agree with the NHC until something drastic or radical happens. The high looks like it is stronger and more pronounced further west. The trough looks like it will be weaker and further north. I think this all points to this storm hitting further west and to the south and we might see this reflect in the next model runs.
Member Since: 21.08.2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 47
2875. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:40 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
and that means exactly what?


Based on the limited amount of information at this point, it seems like the weakest area is closer to FL. Which "could" have implications in later model runs and forecasts. Problem is, they will not be available until later in the day... most likely the 18Z model runs, for the 5pm advisory tonight.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2874. yonzabam
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:38 (GMT)
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yep, and going right over the Inaguas


There's 80,000 flamingos in Grand Inagua. Poor birds. Some of them might end up in NYC.
Member Since: 20.07.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2436
2873. NCCANE
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:36 (GMT)
Quoting Dunkman:
At the risk of giving the florida wishcasters something to make them think it may actually come true, which it's not, the new UKMET gets pretty close.



can you post that link? Thanks
Member Since: 26.07.2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
2872. odinslightning
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:36 (GMT)
there is no shortwave trough. i dont agree with anyone that is supporting a hard turn north. It was supposed to do that 18 hrs ago. i believe the models are going to shift back today as it now appears the shortwave has not appeared. Wishcasters you can all sit there like conn.wx and wish, but all the wishing in the world isn't gonna make your weak shortwave trough your counting on appear out of thin air.


i think the best thing that has come from the bad model runs in the past 24 hours is it has definitely separated the boys from the men. The trolls and lurkers will still keep wishcasting based on anomaly readings while us that understand can watch in real time what is really happening.

all wishcasters.....Your trough is nowhere in sight, as if you even know what im talking about....lol
Member Since: 3.09.2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 475
2871. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:36 (GMT)
24/0545 UTC 21.3N 72.4W

T5.5 = (at or between 100-115 knot range on the Dvorak scale)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
2870. HimacaneBrees
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:35 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
lol.....need sum dem bigs shrimps


We got um dawg. got dem prawns if you need um..LOL I think I could eat some leftover gumbo for breakfast rat about now. But seriously thinking I may go wit da left ova conebread anna glass uh milk. mmmm hmmm
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2869. Kowaliga
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:32 (GMT)
Quoting ecflweatherfan:


Yep, and going right over the Inaguas


Yup, my car's there and I left the windows down! :-O
Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
2868. HurricaneHunterJoe
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:30 (GMT)
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


What Yo numba? LOL.
lol.....need sum dem bigs shrimps
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2867. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:29 (GMT)
Nice little downpour went over the Melbourne, FL reporting site... 1.22" in the last hour.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2866. HimacaneBrees
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:28 (GMT)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hold down the fort guys, If Irene heads for Andros Island,call and wake me up!


What Yo numba? LOL.
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2865. HurricaneHunterJoe
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:27 (GMT)
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
According to what I am seeing so far, 586-588DM 500mb heights around 29N, and from 79-75W (lowest to highest). That 586DM 500mb height is closest to our trough near the SE US coast... makes sense.
and that means exactly what?
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2864. Dunkman
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:27 (GMT)
At the risk of giving the florida wishcasters something to make them think it may actually come true, which it's not, the new UKMET gets pretty close.

Member Since: 6.02.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 214
2863. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:26 (GMT)
Quoting Kowaliga:
i'd say she's back to her good ol' 285...



Yep, and going right over the Inaguas
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2862. PELSPROG
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:26 (GMT)
Hang in there "CaicosRetierdSalior", Looks like you are in the thick of it.
Member Since: 3.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65
2861. HurricaneHunterJoe
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:26 (GMT)
Hold down the fort guys, If Irene heads for Andros Island,call and wake me up!
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2860. HimacaneBrees
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:26 (GMT)
Quoting MoltenIce:
Unfortunately...next recon is scheduled for 1200Z...


Why not just say 8am?
Member Since: 23.08.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2859. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:26 (GMT)
AL, 09, 2011082406, , BEST, 0, 213N, 725W, 95, 965

almost at Category 3
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
2858. Chicklit
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:25 (GMT)


Member Since: 11.07.2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
2857. ecflweatherfan
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:24 (GMT)
According to what I am seeing so far, 586-588DM 500mb heights around 29N, and from 79-75W (lowest to highest). That 586DM 500mb height is closest to our trough near the SE US coast... makes sense.
Member Since: 19.03.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
2856. emguy
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:23 (GMT)
Quoting StarnzMet:


Dude not trying to be mean but the G4 mission has ingested that data. They have a good grasp on the current atmospheric conditions. Irene will not deviate off this track. If you are in the cone pay attention.


Those missions measured moisture, tempreature, wind direction and pressure, which defines the boudries of troughs and ridges in a typical environment. Throw the Cut-Off low that developed south of the Carolina in the mix and you get a surprise. The data will not see that, and the models are not good at forecasting it. However, it is there, hence the legit wild card factor for a potential track change surprise that may/may not occur.
Member Since: 21.05.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 610
2855. Kowaliga
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:22 (GMT)
i'd say she's back to her good ol' 285...

Member Since: 8.09.2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
2854. alvarig1263
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:22 (GMT)
Quoting StarnzMet:


Dude not trying to be mean but the G4 mission has ingested that data. They have a good grasp on the current atmospheric conditions. Irene will not deviate off this track. If you are in the cone pay attention.


I understand they had the latest atmospheric condition as of when they ran their models, but as of the 6Z atmospheric condition the ridge has shoved itself more west and the texas ridge has gone even further west. It's just something to think about and we'll see if the models pick up on it in their next runs. By the way, G4 mission currently in progress. Data won't be processed till later. Guess we'll see what they find...
Member Since: 2.09.2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 744
2853. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:22 (GMT)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
15:00 PM JST August 24 2011
============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Mariana Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located near 16.2N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.1N 141.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: 24.05.2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43701
2852. HurricaneHunterJoe
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:16 (GMT)
Quoting ConnecticutWXGuy:
The longer Irene takes to intensify the further south it will stay. Once it intensifies further it will make its turn to the north. That's pretty much why it is a bit further south than some might have expected, because to this point it has also been weaker than some models depicted. However now that it is becoming much better organized, it should be much more effected by upper level steering patterns. Overall I think a slight, but not major western adjustment will be made to the forecasts.... Florida is definitely not out of the woods, there's still something like a 25% chance the hurricane ends up much further west... but then again that's only a 25% chance. The models probably have generally the right idea, albeit not exact but the general idea of bringing the system up north near or into the Carolina coastline then into the northern mid-Atlantic/New England states.

she's still ingesting dry air and farting out outbursts
Member Since: 18.09.2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
2851. WeafhermanNimmy
24. elokuuta 2011 klo 07:16 (GMT)
FROM NWS RALEIGH Discussion:

Main concern for the long term period will be Hurricane Irene.


Model guidance...as well as the latest NHC forecast...continues to
indicate an eastward shift in the track of Irene...with the center
now expected to pass over the Outer Banks. However...everyone in
central North Carolina needs to continue to monitor the situation
closely due to the potential of large forecast errors this far out
in time.


The timing and strength of several shortwaves moving across the
US/Canadian border continue to be the main features that will
influence the track of Irene. Model guidance has come into better
agreement during the past day and indicates some amplification of a
trough over the Great Lakes/New England...which would steer Irene
more to the north northeast (hence the continued eastward shift).
However...models are just now beginning to Sample the responsible
shortwave and therefore will have to be monitored for any changes in
later model runs.


Due to the continued uncertainty with respect to Irene...do not
plan to make too many changes to the ongoing forecast. For the
Saturday through early Sunday time frame...will trend probability of precipitation across
the forecast area from likely over the eastern half to chance across
the west. With the increased clouds and precipitation...high temperatures will be
below normal and overnight lows will likely be above normal.


Conditions are expected to improve late Sunday into Monday as Irene
pulls away from the region...with temperatures returning to near normal on
Monday. A lingering trough over the region will support isolated
showers and storms Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon.


&&
Member Since: 1.11.2003 Posts: 4 Comments: 234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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