Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 — Blog Index
Does the red circle around 50w mean another disturbance?
Looking like you may not have to deal with Irene... Good news so far. What does your MET buddy say?
poor obama
sans doute!
cant be a fish she has already hit territory in the US
I know how you feel..
Quoting GaltsGulchCO:
noticeable north "jog" the last few frames, perhaps chugging toward the current gap quicker than expected? the 1938 L.I.E. track could become an interesting comparable *if* the current trend continues and she speeds up?
see my post # 190
duly noted, thanks. the ingredients of Speed (Timing), and Intensity will be interesting to watch play out. stay safe y'all
In the post you quoted it said it'll take off at 17:15EDT...
Don't say it will miss, some bloggers will report you ;)
Noticed that. The season looks to be really ramping up. Let's get through Irene first though which is a definite threat to the whole US east coast.
LOL what are you talking about he is on vacation for 10 days
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 22:21Z
Date: August 22, 2011
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 02
Not to mention the Bahamas...
So the steering that will keep it off the coast is the small indent in the azore high? And if it decides to move over, say about 75 miles, then it ends up on top of us?
Not liking that uncertainty. Too close to what happened with Charley.
And so your little fantasy world continues to go on...
It is very possible. The girl is about to have 5 days over the warmest water that is available outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. A maximum intensity of Category 3 or 4 only seems logical given the conditions ahead.
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 22:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 01
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Monday, 22:17Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.0N 65.2W
Location: 63 miles (102 km) to the ESE (117°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,080 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 160° at 30 knots (From the SSE at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 5°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,149 geopotential meters
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 150° at 15 knots (From the SSE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 16 knots (~ 18.4mph)
POOF
Cape May and the Jersey coast would be whacked by a hurricane of this size if a track like this were to play out. 4/5 of the people out there aren't even aware that Irene poses a threat, apart from what they've heard in between coverage of Libya.
18z GFS 156 hours
It's taken off already.
Yes that is another developing system. Haven't really checked this but probably the wave that just recently came off the African coast.
I am watching TWC which may not be the best place for news...
but well off coast of DR...
looks like a Bahama storm now and heading toward SE Atlantic coast(Not us in SE Fla)
SE Fla is looking better and better each model run...
should we believe it??
I am prepared..
they are really talking rapid intensification with this storm.. like back in 2005.. not good.
What weather channel are you watching? I must have missed that.....
That would be a complete disaster for NYC......
This satellite image IS NOT GOOD!!!!!!!!
I usually don't post images...but it looks like Irene is about to undergo some very serious intensification...this is NOT GOOD.....
Looks like its going to hug the coast all the way up to Southern New England.
Link
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 — Blog Index