Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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possibly just a tad south of due west as well, not sure though waiting for another frame.
It was a strong front, but the scenario seems like a stretch to me.
yeah...but not looking for it just yet
No problem. You're right about it being interesting. A lot of things can still change, especially with the new data-filled model suite.
Cat 3 or lower, I am staying..anything more than that, Irene can have it..
It was someone named "cyclonebuster".
And the joke is, he was on the Climate blog a couple of weeks ago, still trying to sell the idea.
Nobody bought it years ago, and they still aren't buying it.
yup the death star!!!!
They aren't. Only the trolls are really saying it will go out to sea 100%. We don't know what it will do. IMO it's about a 20-10% chance of just heading out to sea. It really all depends on the shortwave trough that's coming and how Irene interacts with that.
Link
That's what an "overshooting top" does.... Same way if you see a thunderstorm with an anvil and an area shooting up above it. The statosphere is extremely stable, so an overshooting top indicates VERY strong vertical motion to push up into the stable air.
+1000. He and Ed O'Dell saved my family's lives during Andrew. Hearing his voice is like Pavlov's bell for me. I totally respect him and he's got the formal education to back up what he's saying. Cantore likes to blow things up. But that's also the goal of the TWC/NBC management.
Start thinking hard about getting out, Gramps. Like, tomorrow.
TFP's and ZOOM are active
West-Northwest to Northwest is my best guess.
YAYYYYYY. I WIN!!!!
Over here in the Publix in RPB, it was very busy. Everyone's carts were full of hurricane supplies. I'm ready here, just need to get a few more batteries.
He was in chat when the blog crashed last week and everyone was in there...LOL!!! He is like a carmen sandiago sighting among the blogs..
Great waves!!!
I've been reading these boards a loooong time and can't figure out wishcasting. Have the people never had a storm? Do they just think it's a day out of work? Have they never been without power & AIR for weeks and standing in lines for food? Who wishes for these? Seen my share and don't wish for another.
They should be out by then. Typically 4-6 hours after the run-time they are completed.
And she's just plowing over Hispaniola like it's nothing. Amazing.. just amazing.
We went out and stocked up on liquids (already have canned foods).
With the cool of the night and the steady improvement in appearance I pick 978.
So, this isn't looking good.
I love weather but I don't love THIS weather.
I will say that I'm not seeing a lot of people taking this seriously just yet. Then again I just moved here so don't know a lot of people.
Thank God this didnt go over Haiti..
If luck will have it then, yes it could.
It could also be the much anticipated Savana storm TWC had on its top 10 list.
Lets pray for the luck :)
Really? Every time I see his name I feel like I've just been Rickrolled...
I'm near you but am unsure as to where to go, I'm thinking a lot about Fran's track. Charlotte?
Hahah that's my old man's morning ritual.
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