Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Truer words were never spoken.
Do u know which model updates will get the new data? I heard it wont be til 5 am
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
20.25n/69.53w
ALWAYS FOLLOW NHC/TPC FORECASTS FOR ALL WARNINGS REGARDING THIS STORM
if y'all wanna do live shots from out here just let me know
8 Eastern, 7 Central
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Better call the man back, Flood!!
closest thing I got... Link
This is amazing
ok...trying again....FLOOODDD!!!
True, but last night it was a non-news event. And he does the weather every 10 minutes on the 9's (hint hint)
Oh.. and Casey Anthony is back in Florida too. More breaking news.
That shows the retreating Texas ridge and a weak steering flow. Some slowing of Irene in response to that is also likely giving more time to ramp up.
If that's true...people in the cone better start making plans. After all she is a "runaway" train and is making a lot of her own decisions thus far. AB high building westward and a retreat of TX High would CONFIRM a SE CONUS landing. Thoughts anyone?!
Thanks, will pass that along tomorrow. I still have your number.
Yea. Rapid intensification going on now!!
he's been on the phone with me
These 0Z models appear as far east as they ever have, on average (I have indeed seen the latest HWRF). I feel Irene has gained (and is continuing to gain) too much latitude to threaten the East Coast, except SC/NC. Not saying anybody should let their guard down though.
What's he gonna do? Catholic curses are only good to lengthen your time in purgatory and I have a WHOLE box of smokes wainting for me there...LOL
Wait so if it MISSES the trough, could it get stuck in the SE Bahams? Or if the Bermuda high builds back, continue moving on to S FL?
Irene is ramping up.
Do you know how fast she's traveling?
That's actually a very appealing idea. Maybe even have some kind of "relevant knowledge" survey after you sign up that ranks your level of knowledge on tropical forecasting/information! So those poor people who come here for information don't get scared shitless by the wishcasters saying the storm will go to "Brownsville, TX"...or become to passive by those saying it's going to recurve to sea...
Anyway, Irene looking like a beautiful storm. The NHC's prediction of peaking at 125 mph is on the low side.
I bet TropicalAnalysist is freaking out right now lol.
tell him :P for me then.... :)
TIGS, MY DARLIN"!
How you tonight, toots? What's for dinner?
Is the overnight more/less favorable for Hurricanes to strengthen. I know I've seen the term posted here but it escapes me
GFDL, UKMET & now the HWRF way west of the track. Hopefully this is not a popular trend.
Also in other news...Harvey has finally gone POOF over Mexico...good riddance...that storm was so annoying for some reason to me...LOL
WOW - you're right - "AMAZING" keeps defining her unfortunately.
Yea my ignore list is growing rapidly the last 2 days. Pathetic to act stupid when lives are on the line. I do not care how old they are.
Carolinas, then New England, oh Joy.
There is a 2% chance against many million people along the east coast.
The last one was Felix in 2007...
Oh my brother, you just don't know...we are in the phase known as the storm before the calm right now...
I would expect a west and possibly even WSW wobble in the next several hours.
It's also the reason why the GFDL continues to INSIST that the circulation runs across the north side of the Dominican Republic.
MIMIC TPW
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