Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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They did not touch the track for this advisory.
Link
RI FLAG (ON)
MARK
20.25n/69.53w
Ace total: 15.7
and with a major hurricane likely out of her, she will bring that up pretty fast...
A tragedy in Mexico when Harvey came into to landfall after Blowing up a Huge amount of convection, 3 fatalities were reported, Death toll now climbs to 33 for this season, Glad to see noone has been found dead in PR. She couldve been ALOT Worse for them and though we are now next in line...
AL, 09, 2011082300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 687W, 85, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, D,
Or a loopty loop, like Jeanne in 2004.
you forgot the most important one:
"As I've been saying for several days, ............."
Link
It REALLY wasn't necessary for you to "share"
your M and M's with us down south here.
I think 5am tomorrow will be the first with the G4 data input. That may result in a track change.
Not attempting to draw a comparison with Irene's potential impact, just sayin. I'd forgotten how good Norcross can be...he provides the biggest bang for the weather nut's buck, IMO
Levi??
I know it was in a joking matter, but some new blogger could easily take any post made here as the truth, so I wanted to make sure they knew when they read that the seriousness of Irene right now.
I say it goes for cat 4/5 status tommorow.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 703
may be by the dawns early light
After 8 TS, the real season has begun
That is up to the NHC. None of us work there. We don't know what they will forecast tonight.
Richard Branson's Caribbean House hit by lightning... Irene blamed - Kate Winslet a Hero saving his mum...
Poor Richard's Habitat ?
Can't forget "Pumping the Ridge."
No wonder it was so windy when it made its closest approach to SFla.
I totally agree with you.
Stop talking.
The GFDL is alone in affecting your area, so I wouldn't lose sleep over it unless other models start shifting in that direction tonight and tomorrow. I would, however, review your plans for keeping your property safe in case of tropical storm or hurricane impacts that could still move over eastern Florida if Irene moves within 100 miles of the coast, which is very possible. She will be passing close by.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 1 6 14
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 X 1 1 6 3
TROPICAL STORM 10 2 3 4 12 21 31
HURRICANE 90 97 96 95 87 67 53
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 11 11 19 29 30 31
HUR CAT 2 56 34 28 30 27 20 13
HUR CAT 3 21 43 43 32 24 14 7
HUR CAT 4 2 9 14 12 7 3 1
HUR CAT 5 X 1 2 1 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 95KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 110KT 105KT 95KT
The interesting the thing about Irene, Taz, is that this is just the beginning of a serious next few weeks. And the Gulf will soon be open for business.
I can't even imagine what the eye wall rain rate is like under that convection :0
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